기업재고/매출 지표(ratio) : 2000~2009.07

기업재고,Business Inventories 월간변화율(%)

기업재고(Business Inventories) 지표를 보면 2008년말 이후로 감소가 지속되고 있습니다.
경기가 활황이어서 물건이 잘 나가서 재고가 없어져서 감소하는 것이 아니라,
경기가 불황이어서 새로 생산되는 물건이 적고, 재고물량만 밀어내고 있으므로, 재고가 감소하고 있다고 볼 수 있습니다.

재고 물량이 소진되는 이런 재고 조정(Inventories Re-adjustment)이 끝나고, 새로운 생산이 촉진될 수 있는 촉매가 분출되어야 경기가 다소 활력을 찾을 것으로 볼 수 있습니다.

그러나, 위 기업재고 월간변화율(%) 그래프 추세를 보면 계속 감소 중이나 추세가 둔화되고 있기 때문에, 일정 시기가 지나면 일단 시기적인 모멘텀은 확보될 것으로 볼 수 있습니다. 문제는 그런 시기가 아니라, 막상 닥쳤을 때의 그 강도라 할 것입니다. 재고조정이 마무리되는 시기에도 지지부진할 것이냐, 아니면 다소 활력의 모멘텀을 찾을 것인가가 향후 적정 시기에 다다랐을 때의 관심사항입니다. 

위의 추세들은 일정 시간이 경과하면 경기 전환의 시기적 모멘텀, 기회를 가질 것으로 당연히 나타내고 있기 때문에, 단기 주가에 아주 악재는 아닙니다. 따라서 다우존스지수(DJIA, 다우지수), 나스닥 지수도 강보합에 일일 마감한 모습입니다.

이하, 통계국(Census Bureau)의 발표내용 요지입니다.

Timothy Winters (Retail): (301) 763-2713                                                                                                                            CB09-106
John Miller (Wholesale): (301) 763-2703
Chris Savage (Manufacturing): (301) 763-4832

MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES AND SALES
May 2009

Sales. The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers' shipments for May, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $966.1 billion, down 0.1 percent (±0.2%)* from April 2009 and down 17.8 percent (±0.5%) from May 2008.

Inventories. Manufacturers' and trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1,368.1 billion, down 1.0 percent (±0.1%) from April 2009 and down 8.0 percent (±0.4%) from May 2008.

Inventories/Sales Ratio. The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of May was 1.42. The May 2008 ratio was 1.27.

Timothy Winters (Retail): (301) 763-2713                                                                                                                            CB09-52
John Miller (Wholesale): (301) 763-2703
Chris Savage (Manufacturing): (301) 763-4832

MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES AND SALES
February 2009

Sales. The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for February, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $994.9 billion, up 0.2 percent (±0.2%)* from January 2009, but down 13.0 percent (±0.6%) from February 2008.

Inventories. Manufacturers’ and trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1,421.3 billion, down 1.3 percent (±0.1%) from January 2009 and down 3.5 percent (±0.3%) from February 2008.

Inventories/Sales Ratio. The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of February was 1.43. The February 2008 ratio was 1.29.

 

 

The Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales Report for March is scheduled to be released May 13, 2009 at 10:00 a.m. EDT.

For information, visit the Census Bureau’s Web site at <http://www.census.gov/bussales>. This report is also available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce’s STAT-USA (202-482-1986).

* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero.

 

Table 1. Estimated Monthly Sales and Inventories for Manufacturers, Retailers, and Merchant Wholesalers
(In millions of dollars)

See footnotes and notes at the end of Table 3.

(p) Preliminary estimate.
(r) Revised estimate.

 

Table 2. Percent Changes for Sales and Inventories--Manufacturers, Retailers, and Merchant Wholesalers

 

 

Table 3. Estimated Monthly Retail Sales, Inventories, and Inventories/Sales Ratios, By Kind of Business
(In millions of dollars)

(p) Preliminary estimate.
(r) Revised estimate.

¹ Inventories are on a non-LIFO basis as of the end of the month.
² Adjusted for seasonal variations and, in the case of sales, for trading-day differences and holiday variations. Concurrent seasonal adjustment is being used to adjust all sales, shipment, and inventory estimates. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12-ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are applied to the current and previous month estimates and for retail and wholesale estimates a year ago as well. For retail sales, concurrent seasonal adjustment is also used to adjust the advance estimates (published one month before the preliminary estimates) and the estimates one year before the advance month. This explains the revision to retail estimates from a year ago.
³ Manufacturers sales refer to the value of shipments by manufacturers. The shipments data from individual manufacturers are adjusted prior to tabulation for the number of trading days as well as for any variations in the length of the reporting period.
⁴ The 2002 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) defines merchant wholesalers as including manufacturers' sales branches and offices. However, the estimates included in this release exclude manufacturers' sales branches and offices. Note that this is not a change in coverage from prior releases and is consistent with the description used in the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey data products.

Note: U.S. and group totals include kinds of business not shown. The Manufacturing and Trade Inventory and Sales estimates are based on data from three surveys: the Monthly Retail Trade Survey, the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey, and the Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey. The sampling variability for retailers and merchant wholesalers can be used to construct a 90 percent confidence interval for the estimates. Over all possible samples, 90 percent of such intervals will cover the true estimate. These intervals are given in parentheses for the estimates on the front page. If, for example, the estimate is up 0.8 percent and the margin of sampling error is ±1.2 percent, the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.4 percent to +2.0 percent. If the range contains 0, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. Measures of reliability for Retail and Wholesale sales and inventory levels and changes are included in the detailed monthly press releases for those Industries. Manufacturers do not contribute to estimates of sampling variability because the manufacturer’s mail panel is not a probability sample from a known frame and standard errors of the industry estimates cannot be calculated. Estimates from all three surveys are also subject to nonsampling errors, which can arise in any stage of the survey. Such errors include coverage error (failure to accurately represent all population units in the sample), response errors, coding errors, and nonresponse. Although no direct measurement of these errors has been obtained, precautionary steps were taken in all phases of the collection, processing, and tabulation of the data to minimize their influence.

Source: Retail Indicators Branch, U.S. Census Bureau | Last Revised: April 14, 2009

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Page Last Modified: April 14, 2009


출처 : http://www.census.gov/mtis/www/mtis_current.html

다음은 US Business Inventories/Sales Ratio : 2000~2009,  미국 기업재고/매출 비율 입니다. (2009년 3월 12일 발표, 현지)

Timothy Winters (Retail): (301) 763-2713                                                                                                                            CB09-35
John Miller (Wholesale): (301) 763-2703
Chris Savage (Manufacturing): (301) 763-4832

MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES AND SALES
January 2009

Sales. The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for January, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,004.0 billion, down 1.0 percent (±0.4%) from December 2008 and down 14.0 percent (±0.4%) from January 2008.

Inventories. Manufacturers’ and trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1,440.1 billion, down 1.1 percent (±0.1%) from December 2008 and down 1.5 percent (±0.3%) from January 2008.

Inventories/Sales Ratio. The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of January was 1.43. The January 2008 ratio was 1.25.

The Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales Report for February is scheduled to be released April 14, 2009 at 10:00 a.m. EDT.

For information, visit the Census Bureau’s Web site at <http://www.census.gov/bussales>. This report is also available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce’s STAT-USA (202-482-1986).

* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero.

mtis_current.pdf

Table 1. Estimated Monthly Sales and Inventories for Manufacturers, Retailers, and Merchant Wholesalers
(In millions of dollars)

See footnotes and notes at the end of Table 3.

(p) Preliminary estimate.
(r) Revised estimate.

Table 2. Percent Changes for Sales and Inventories--Manufacturers, Retailers, and Merchant Wholesalers

Table 3. Estimated Monthly Retail Sales, Inventories, and Inventories/Sales Ratios, By Kind of Business
(In millions of dollars)

(p) Preliminary estimate.
(r) Revised estimate.

¹ Inventories are on a non-LIFO basis as of the end of the month.
² Adjusted for seasonal variations and, in the case of sales, for trading-day differences and holiday variations. Concurrent seasonal adjustment is being used to adjust all sales, shipment, and inventory estimates. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12-ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are applied to the current and previous month estimates and for retail and wholesale estimates a year ago as well. For retail sales, concurrent seasonal adjustment is also used to adjust the advance estimates (published one month before the preliminary estimates) and the estimates one year before the advance month. This explains the revision to retail estimates from a year ago.
³ Manufacturers sales refer to the value of shipments by manufacturers. The shipments data from individual manufacturers are adjusted prior to tabulation for the number of trading days as well as for any variations in the length of the reporting period.
⁴ The 2002 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) defines merchant wholesalers as including manufacturers' sales branches and offices. However, the estimates included in this release exclude manufacturers' sales branches and offices. Note that this is not a change in coverage from prior releases and is consistent with the description used in the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey data products.

Note: U.S. and group totals include kinds of business not shown. The Manufacturing and Trade Inventory and Sales estimates are based on data from three surveys: the Monthly Retail Trade Survey, the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey, and the Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey. The sampling variability for retailers and merchant wholesalers can be used to construct a 90 percent confidence interval for the estimates. Over all possible samples, 90 percent of such intervals will cover the true estimate. These intervals are given in parentheses for the estimates on the front page. If, for example, the estimate is up 0.8 percent and the margin of sampling error is ±1.2 percent, the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.4 percent to +2.0 percent. If the range contains 0, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. Measures of reliability for Retail and Wholesale sales and inventory levels and changes are included in the detailed monthly press releases for those Industries. Manufacturers do not contribute to estimates of sampling variability because the manufacturer’s mail panel is not a probability sample from a known frame and standard errors of the industry estimates cannot be calculated. Estimates from all three surveys are also subject to nonsampling errors, which can arise in any stage of the survey. Such errors include coverage error (failure to accurately represent all population units in the sample), response errors, coding errors, and nonresponse. Although no direct measurement of these errors has been obtained, precautionary steps were taken in all phases of the collection, processing, and tabulation of the data to minimize their influence.

Source: Retail Indicators Branch, U.S. Census Bureau | Last Revised: March 12, 2009

 
1월 28일 설연휴 직후 외국인의 강력한 매수세로 전고점 부근 1,227p에 도달했으나, 미국증시가 도약하지 못하고, 약세권 하단으로 접어들면서, 외국인 중심으로 추가적인 단기 상승을 이끌기보다는, 지수가 재차 박스권으로 들어서고 있는 모습입니다.
이번주 미국증시도 경기지표 영향으로 약세가 확장될 수 있으므로, 관찰과 관망이 좋아보입니다.

 KOSPI  Sunvening Brief _09.02.16~20 _ASSETGUIDE

미국시장 경기지표 안좋아 회복 지연, 경기부양안에도 실망감
단기 박스권에 만족, 해외시장 흐름 점검 요망

[일간 추세]
7,870억달러 규모의 경기부양안에도 불구하고 미국시장은 실망감을 나타내고 있는 모습
저번주 소매판매 Retail Sales, 기업재고 Business Inventories 를 보면, 미국 경기지표는 여전히 긍정적이지 않고,
침체의 저점국면을 통과했다고 판단하기 일러 추가적 시간경과가 필요해 보이는 시점
코스피의 경우, 1,100~1,200p 부근에서 단기 박스권을 계속 보이고 있으나, 
박스권이 지켜지고 있는 것에 만족하고 시간 경과가 계속 필요해 보이는 시점으로 생각됩니다.
잠정적인 지지권은 1,150p대 중반, 1,130p대 중반으로 볼 수 있습니다.
외국인 주체의 경우, 설연휴부터 미국시장의 약세에 상관없이 잘 버텨주었으나, 미국시장 약세가 계속되고 있는 관계로,
1,127p 전고점 부근부터 다소 관망세에 들어서서, 추가 추동력은 자제하고 있는 모습입니다.


20주선 아직 돌아서지 못한 상태
미국증시 주간 약세 확장되면, 주간 밑꼬리 만들 가능성

[주간 추세]
지수는 전고점 부근 1,127p에서 저항을 맞은 국면이고, 미국증시 흐름이 경계를 요하므로, 이번주는 코스피도 다소 쉬어갈 수 있는 위치입니다.
미국증시의 주간흐름에 따라, 코스피 주간 변동성도 영향을 받을 것으로 보입니다.
미국의 금주 경기지표도 그리 호락호락하지는 않고, 대미 영향력 강한 국내시장의 경우, 이에 연동성이 커질 수 있는 모습입니다.


최근 월봉의 월간 변동성은 다소 큰 상태
바닥권에서 박스권 기간이 연장되어 가는 과정

[월간 추세]
2008년 10월에 장대하락파가 나타난 이후에, 11월, 12월, 2009년 1월에 걸쳐 모두 월봉의 상하 변동성은 큰 상태입니다.
이러한 박스권 국면을 2월에도 벗어나기는 현재까지는 다소 힘들어 보이므로, 월간 상하 변동폭의 확장에 대비하는 것이 좋아보입니다.
그러나, 잠정 저점대는 다소 올라서고 있고, 상하변동성 절대수치의 축소는 하단권에서 안정화추세도 잠정적으로 동반되어 가고 있다는 것이므로,
기존의 전략을 그대로 유지하는 선에서, 1,150p 전후반대에서는 2/5~3/5 선을 중장기적으로 유지해 갑니다.

종목구성은 3개 이내로 하기보다는 5~10개 기업 이상의 중대형주 중심의 포트폴리오를 권장드립니다.

[한국은행 기준금리 추이, 1999~2009]
잠재적인 성장률 안정화 추세에 따라, 다소 하향된 새로운 금리 시대로 진입한 한국시장 _ 한국은행 금통위, 2월 12일 금리 2%로 인하,
기존의 3~5% 10년 밴드에서 탈피하여, 향후 10년 정도는 다소 하향된 새로운 밴드존(Band Zone)을 형성할 가능성 유력합니다.