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미국 FRB의 베이지북, Beige Book 2009년 9월호가, 9월 9일(현지) 발표되었습니다.
베이지북은 미국의 경제상황, 경기동향을 보여주는 주요지표로 연간 8회 작성, 공개되는데, 2009년 여섯번째에 해당합니다.
이번 베이지북에서 FRB는 미국 경기가 "개선을 보이고 있다"고 확실하게 언급하였습니다.
"경제활동은 더욱 안정화되었고, 개선의 신호들이 나타나고 있으며,
재고는 소비와 대등하고 관리되고 있고,있으며, 주택시장은 개선조짐이 나타나고 있다. 한편, 산업생산도 개선이 나타나고 있다.
반면에, 임금 상승압박은 최소한으로 유지되고 있고, 소비자 물가도 안정적"이라고 밝혔습니다.
베이지북은 미국 12개 각 지역 연방은행들이 수집한 미국 12개 지역의 경기동향을 요약한 자료로,
미국 경제상황을 보여주는 핵심지표로 작용하며, 연방준비은행 FRB, Federal Reserve Bank 가 발표합니다.
이들 12개 지역은 Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, San Francisco 입니다.
(보스톤, 뉴욕, 필라델피아, 클리브랜드, 리치몬드, 아틀란타, 사카고, 세인트루이스, 미네아폴리스,
캔사스시티, 댈라스, 샌프라시스코)
다음 베이지북은 10월 21일, 12월 2일 발표될 예정입니다. 2009년 올해 베이지북 발표 일정은 앞으로 2회 남았습니다.
fullreport20090909.pdf첨부 : FRB 베이지북 보고서 전문 파일 (2009.09.09 Beige Book)
Summary
Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and based on information collected before August 31, 2009. This document summarizes comments received from businesses and other contacts outside the Federal Reserve and is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials.
전문요지
Reports from the 12 Federal Reserve Districts indicate that economic activity continued to stabilize in July and August. Relative to the last report, Dallas indicated that economic activity had firmed, while Boston, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Richmond, and San Francisco mentioned signs of improvement. Atlanta, Chicago, Kansas City, Minneapolis, and New York generally described economic activity as stable or showing signs of stabilization; St. Louis remarked that the pace of decline appeared to be moderating. Most Districts noted that the outlook for economic activity among their business contacts remained cautiously positive.
경제활동은 더욱 안정화되었고, 개선의 신호들이 나타나고 있다.
The majority of Districts reported flat retail sales. Richmond, Philadelphia, Chicago, Atlanta, and Boston remarked that retailers continued to carefully manage inventories, keeping them in line with low sales levels. A majority of Districts confirmed that the "cash-for-clunkers" program boosted traffic and sales. Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, and Minneapolis also noted increases or planned increases in automobile-related production. Most regions reported some improvement in residential real estate markets. Downward pressure on home prices continued in most Districts, although Dallas and New York noted that local prices were firming. Reports on commercial real estate suggest that the demand for space remained weak and that nonresidential construction-related activity continued to decline. San Francisco, Philadelphia, and St. Louis noted that the demand for nonfinancial services remained soft, although the pace of the decline was described as slowing in the latter two Districts. Loan demand was described as weak and many Districts reported that credit standards remained tight. Most Districts reported improvements in manufacturing production. For instance, Philadelphia, Richmond, Atlanta, Cleveland, and Chicago reported moderate increases in new orders. Labor market conditions remained weak across all Districts. However, staffing firms in Atlanta, Dallas, Richmond, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Boston, New York, and Chicago did report a slight pickup in the demand for temporary workers.
재고는 소비와 유사하게 관리되고 있다. 주택시장은 개선조짐이 나타나고 있다. 산업생산도 개선이 나타나고 있다.
Wage pressures remained minimal across all Districts. Consumer prices were described as being steady in most Districts, although Kansas City and San Francisco noted some downward pressure on retail prices.
임금 상승압박은 최소한으로 유지되고 있다. 소비자 물가도 안정적이다.
부분별 내용
Consumer Spending and Tourism
Consumer spending remained soft in most Districts. The majority of Districts reported that retail activity was flat. Boston, Philadelphia, and Kansas City noted improvement in sales, but attributed the increase primarily to back-to-school purchases. Philadelphia, Chicago, Cleveland, and San Francisco observed that shoppers remained focused on essentials and continued to refrain from purchasing discretionary and big-ticket items. Kansas City and San Francisco noted weak restaurant sales. Richmond, Philadelphia, Chicago, Atlanta, and Boston remarked that retailer inventories were being closely monitored and were keeping them in line with low sales levels.
The majority of Districts reported that the cash-for-clunkers program helped boost traffic and sales, although Cleveland and Kansas City also remarked that used car sales were adversely affected by the program. The sustainability of the higher recent pace of new vehicle sales was questioned by industry contacts in the Richmond, Atlanta, Minneapolis, and San Francisco Districts.
Tourism activity varied. Kansas City, Minneapolis, and Richmond observed solid visitor numbers at local vacation destinations, whereas Atlanta and New York noted sluggish activity and aggressive hotel discounting. San Francisco reported that activity in California and Nevada was weak, but visitors to Hawaii had increased.
Real Estate and Construction
Residential real estate markets remained weak, but signs of improvement continued to be noted. Chicago, Richmond, Boston, and San Francisco observed an uptick in sales over the last six weeks, while sales in the Philadelphia District were described as steady. St. Louis commented that residential home sales had not improved. Most Districts reported that sales remained below the levels of a year earlier. However, Atlanta, New York, Cleveland, and Minneapolis documented some year-over-year gains in select markets. Most Districts noted that demand remained stronger at the low-end of the housing market. Boston, Cleveland, Dallas, Kansas City, Richmond, and New York indicated that the first-time home buyer tax incentive was spurring sales. However, Philadelphia did note an upturn in sales at the high-end of the market. Reports on house prices generally indicated ongoing downward pressures, although Dallas and New York noted some increases. Construction remained at low levels overall, although Chicago and Dallas reported a small increase in activity.
Reports on commercial real estate markets indicated that demand for space remained weak and that construction continued to decline in all Districts. Atlanta, Philadelphia, Richmond, and San Francisco reported that vacancy rates increased, while rates held steady in the Boston and Kansas City Districts and were mixed in New York. Boston, Dallas, Kansas City, Philadelphia, and Richmond commented that the demand for space remained weak. Commercial rents declined according to Boston, Chicago, New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond. Rent concessions were reported in the Richmond and San Francisco markets, and Richmond noted that some landlords had postponed property improvements in an effort to conserve cash. Construction remained at very low levels, with modest improvements noted in public construction in the Chicago, Cleveland, and Minneapolis Districts.
Nonfinancial Services
Reports on the demand for nonfinancial services were mixed. San Francisco, Philadelphia, and St. Louis noted that the demand for service sector business remained soft, although the pace of decline was described as having slowed in the latter two Districts. The demand for legal services remained relatively flat at low levels according to Dallas and Minneapolis. Kansas City and Richmond cited increasing demand for technology-related services. Healthcare services in Minneapolis also experienced an uptick in demand. Demand for transportation services were mixed, with some Districts noting stabilization at weak levels. Reports indicated that freight volume declines were moderating in Cleveland, while Dallas and Atlanta reported a modest pickup in rail shipments.
Banking and Financial Services
Most Districts reported that loan demand was weak and that credit standards remained tight. New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Kansas City, St. Louis, and San Francisco observed further weakening in loan demand across most categories. Dallas noted scattered reports of improvements in loan demand. Contacts in Cleveland, Chicago, and Dallas noted an increase in demand for auto loans. Credit standards ranged from unchanged to tighter in most Districts. However, Chicago reported that credit conditions and availability had improved.
Mortgage activity declined modestly according to the Philadelphia, Cleveland, and Kansas City Districts, while Richmond reported increases attributed to improved demand for starter homes. Dallas noted an uptick in refinancing activity. Commercial and industrial lending declined in the Philadelphia and Kansas City regions, and was steady according to Richmond. The lack of available credit was cited as an issue for both residential and commercial contractors in Cleveland, and for commercial real estate borrowers in Atlanta. San Francisco reported an increase in venture capital investment.
Further deterioration in credit quality was noted by Philadelphia, Richmond, Dallas, and San Francisco, whereas Cleveland observed some improvement in credit quality. Chicago also cited improvements in credit quality, apart from home equity and commercial real estate. Dallas and Chicago noted increases in consumer bankruptcies, while rising delinquency rates were reported by New York and Cleveland.
Manufacturing
Most Districts reported modest improvements in the manufacturing sector. Philadelphia, Richmond, Atlanta, Cleveland, and Chicago all reported slight-to-moderate increases in new orders. San Francisco indicated that new orders increased for manufacturers of semiconductors and other IT products, while orders declined for metal fabricators and petroleum refineries. Dallas noted that orders held steady, while St. Louis reported that manufacturing output continued to decline, but at a slower pace. Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, and Minneapolis reported increases or planned increases in automobile and automobile-related production. Several Districts also noted increased production in the pharmaceutical industry.
The near-term outlook among manufacturers varied, but the majority of reports indicated that manufacturers were cautiously optimistic. Boston, New York, and Philadelphia reported that their contacts expect modest growth later this year or early 2010. Boston noted that while its contacts generally expect modest growth, several cost control measures would remain in place. Dallas reported increased uncertainty among construction-related manufacturers, while Cleveland noted that half of their manufacturing contacts expected weak demand into 2010.
Employment, Wages, and Prices
Labor market conditions remained weak across all Districts, but several also noted an uptick in temporary hiring and a decline in the pace of layoffs. Richmond reported that most service-providing firms continued to cut employees, while Minneapolis and New York noted additional layoffs in the manufacturing sector. Cleveland reported modest job declines in the banking, commercial construction, and coal mining sectors. Further job cuts are expected in auto manufacturing according to St. Louis, and Dallas indicated further staff reductions are anticipated in the airline, energy, and residential construction sectors. Staffing firms in a majority of Districts reported a modest increase in the demand for temporary workers, although industry contacts in Boston also questioned whether these gains will persist. New York cited a modest pickup in temporary hiring for the legal and financial industries. Chicago noted an uptick in demand for workers in the healthcare and information technology industries. St. Louis and Minneapolis reported that federal stimulus funds have had a positive impact on construction and local government jobs.
Wage pressures remained low across all Districts. Several Districts noted businesses and local governments imposing wage freezes or even reducing employee compensation in some instances. Boston noted that several manufacturers who have cut wage rates do not expect to restore pay levels until next year. Kansas City, Philadelphia, Chicago, Minneapolis, San Francisco, Dallas, and Richmond noted an increase in the cost of some raw materials, including fuel, metals, and steel. Chicago and Dallas mentioned that excess supply was putting substantial downward pressure on natural gas prices. Retail prices were described as generally steady in most Districts, although Kansas City and San Francisco noted continued discounting and downward pressure on consumer prices.
Agriculture and Natural Resources
Reports on agricultural activity were mixed. Weather conditions were described as being favorable in St. Louis, Kansas City, and Atlanta. However, cold weather, crop diseases, and drought were limiting production of corn, cotton, and soybeans in the Chicago, Minneapolis, and Dallas Districts. Drought and weak market conditions were significantly affecting livestock industries according to Kansas City and Dallas. Dallas reported that some ranchers had liquidated portions of their cattle herds, while hog producers in the Kansas City District were said to be struggling as a result of lower pork prices.
Atlanta, Dallas, Kansas City, and San Francisco noted increased oil and gas inventories as a result of reduced consumption. Contacts in the natural gas industry noted that subdued demand continued to suppress prices and has lead to cutbacks in extraction activity. Cleveland indicated that weak demand for electricity prompted coal producers to scale back production and capital investment. Kansas City noted that although coal production in Wyoming had risen, it remained below year-ago levels. Dallas and Atlanta remarked that oil and gas drilling activity continued to decline in the Gulf of Mexico, whereas Kansas City and Dallas reported that the number of rigs operating on land had increased.
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[관련글]
2009-07-29 미국 베이지북 7월호
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