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미국 소매판매, Retail Sales 지표가 월간 -1.1% 다시 감소하였고, 결국 근래 2개월간 소폭 개선되는 듯 했으나,
침체 흐름의 일시적 기술적 둔화에 불과하고, 다시 침체가 지속되는 흐름을 보여주고 있습니다.
장기 침체가 연장되는 흐름으로 경계와 충분한 시간 경과가 필요하다고 생각됩니다.
TUESDAY, APRIL 14, AT 8:30 A.M. EDT
Timothy Winters / Aneta Erdie CB09-51
Service Sector Statistics Division
(301) 763-2713
ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL TRADE AND FOOD SERVICES
MARCH 2009
| Intention to Revise Retail Estimates: Monthly retail sales estimates will be revised based on the results of the 2007 Annual Retail Trade Survey. Revised not adjusted and corresponding adjusted data are scheduled for release on April 30, 2009. |
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $344.4 billion, a decrease of 1.1 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month and 9.4 percent (±0.7%) below March 2008. Total sales for the January through March 2009 period were down 8.8 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The January 2009 to February 2009 percent change was revised from -0.1 percent (±0.5%)* to +0.3 percent (±0.3%)*.
Retail trade sales were down 1.1 percent (±0.7%) from February 2009 and 10.7 percent (±0.7%) below last year. Gasoline stations sales were down 34.0 percent (±1.5%) from March 2008 and motor vehicle and parts dealers sales were down 23.5 percent (±2.3%) from last year.
The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau's full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.
Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales
(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)
The Advance Monthly Retail Sales for Retail and Food Services for April is scheduled to be released May 13, 2009 at 8:30 a.m. EDT.
For information, visit the Census Bureau's Web site at <http://www.census.gov/retail>. This report is also available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's STAT-USA (202-482-1986).
* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different than zero.
SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--MARCH 2009 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Timothy Winters (301) 763-2713.TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--March 2009
Estimates adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes. (Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(2) (In Millions of dollars) 2009 2009 2009 2008 2008 NAICS(1) Kind of Business Mar(3) Feb Jan Mar Feb Code (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 344,380 348,359 347,311 380,171 378,191 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 288,203 290,844 288,038 306,746 304,410 Retail ....................................... 305,830 309,246 308,613 342,444 340,684 GAFO(4).......................................... (*) 96,663 95,550 98,272 97,271 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 56,177 57,515 59,273 73,425 73,781 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 49,659 50,926 52,720 67,011 67,405 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 8,231 8,370 8,326 9,467 9,445 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 8,535 9,066 9,007 9,427 9,199 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) 7,279 7,254 7,609 7,375 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) 1,787 1,753 1,818 1,824 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 24,488 24,645 24,762 26,971 27,538 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) 20,585 20,590 22,998 23,608 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 49,469 49,239 49,308 48,671 48,367 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 44,123 43,931 44,063 43,649 43,400 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) 3,578 3,591 3,452 3,421 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 21,124 21,037 20,910 20,233 20,260 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) 17,320 17,198 16,765 16,762 447 Gasoline stations................................ 27,896 28,339 27,474 42,253 41,523 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 17,939 18,266 17,775 18,901 18,655 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (S) (S) (S) (S) 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) 3,044 2,982 3,349 3,359 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) 2,215 2,087 2,201 2,221 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 7,287 7,355 7,350 7,396 7,311 452 General merchandise stores....................... 50,146 50,229 49,643 49,509 49,204 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 16,057 16,106 15,965 16,990 17,103 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(5)............... (*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) 34,123 33,678 32,519 32,101 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) 30,253 29,954 28,875 28,385 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) 3,870 3,724 3,644 3,716 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 9,519 9,736 9,214 9,867 9,715 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 25,019 25,449 25,571 26,324 25,686 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) 18,264 18,301 17,912 17,504 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 38,550 39,113 38,698 37,727 37,507 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (S) Suppressed (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12 ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally adjusted estimates shown in this table. Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated. Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html (3) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (4) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & clothing accessories (448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise (452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores (4532). (5) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--March 2009
Estimates not adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences and price changes. (In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change) 3 month total % Chg. 2009 2009 2009 2008 2008 NAICS(1) Kind of Business 2009 from Mar(2) Feb Jan Mar Feb Code 2008 (a) (p) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 966,116 -10.1 338,716 308,599 318,801 378,755 348,876 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 800,901 -6.8 278,617 255,952 266,332 300,572 278,636 Retail ....................................... 854,825 -11.5 299,742 273,006 282,077 340,236 313,244 GAFO(3).......................................... (*) (*) (*) 83,579 84,003 93,727 87,385 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 165,215 -23.2 60,099 52,647 52,469 78,183 70,240 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 146,785 -25.5 53,483 46,750 46,552 71,769 64,304 44111 New car dealers................................ (*) (*) (*) 35,603 36,334 56,849 51,188 4413 Auto parts, acc. & tire stores.................. (*) (*) (*) 5,897 5,917 6,414 5,936 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 23,094 -13.9 7,951 7,466 7,677 9,136 8,822 4421 Furniture stores................................ (*) (*) (*) 4,434 4,370 5,100 5,063 4422 Home furnishings stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 3,032 3,307 4,036 3,759 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 24,895 -5.5 7,796 8,492 8,607 8,659 8,857 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) (*) (*) 6,857 6,964 6,886 7,146 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 1,635 1,643 1,773 1,711 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 61,313 -11.6 23,741 18,528 19,044 25,703 21,783 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) (*) (*) 16,015 16,616 21,802 19,264 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 140,814 -0.1 47,673 44,392 48,749 48,557 45,351 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 127,060 -0.5 42,888 39,933 44,239 43,824 40,970 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 2,959 3,106 3,176 2,976 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 62,399 2.2 21,504 19,985 20,910 20,779 20,078 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) (*) (*) 16,558 17,370 17,184 16,712 447 Gasoline stations................................ 76,454 -34.1 27,115 24,145 25,194 41,281 36,789 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 45,569 -6.4 16,541 15,171 13,857 18,119 16,128 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (*) (*) 623 652 816 722 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 2,417 2,299 3,406 2,785 44814 Family clothing stores.......................... (*) (*) (*) 5,713 5,461 6,751 5,680 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) (*) (*) 1,918 1,663 2,285 1,999 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 19,367 -1.8 6,449 5,752 7,166 6,649 6,024 452 General merchandise stores....................... 133,847 -0.3 46,841 43,611 43,395 47,929 44,205 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 40,277 -8.1 14,407 13,169 12,701 15,938 14,490 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(4)............... (*) (*) (*) 13,523 13,038 16,384 14,891 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) (*) (*) 30,442 30,694 31,991 29,715 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) (*) (*) 27,137 27,618 28,442 26,426 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) (*) (*) 3,305 3,076 3,549 3,289 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 26,010 -5.4 8,972 8,620 8,418 9,224 9,025 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 75,848 -4.7 25,060 24,197 26,591 26,017 25,942 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) (*) (*) 16,346 17,843 16,855 16,401 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 111,291 2.0 38,974 35,593 36,724 38,519 35,632 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (3) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & clothing accessories (448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise (452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores (4532). (4) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.TABLE 2A. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--March 2009
Estimates adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes (Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(*) Mar Feb 2009 2009 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Feb Mar Jan Feb Code 2009 2008 2009 2008 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... -1.1 -9.4 +0.3 -7.9 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... -0.9 -6.0 +1.0 -4.5 Retail .................................. -1.1 -10.7 +0.2 -9.2 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... -2.3 -23.5 -3.0 -22.0 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers............... -2.5 -25.9 -3.4 -24.4 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. -1.7 -13.1 +0.5 -11.4 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... -5.9 -9.5 +0.7 -1.4 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -0.6 -9.2 -0.5 -10.5 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +0.5 +1.6 -0.1 +1.8 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +0.4 +1.1 -0.3 +1.2 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +0.4 +4.4 +0.6 +3.8 447 Gasoline stations................................ -1.6 -34.0 +3.1 -31.8 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... -1.8 -5.1 +2.8 -2.1 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ -0.9 -1.5 +0.1 +0.6 452 General merchandise stores....................... -0.2 +1.3 +1.2 +2.1 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... -0.3 -5.5 +0.9 -5.8 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... -2.2 -3.5 +5.7 +0.2 454 Nonstore retailers............................... -1.7 -5.0 -0.5 -0.9 722 Food services & drinking places.................. -1.4 +2.2 +1.1 +4.3 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1A of this report.TABLE 2B. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--March 2009
Data not adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences and price changes. (Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(*) Mar Feb 2009 2009 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Feb Mar Jan Feb Code 2009 2008 2009 2008 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... +9.8 -10.6 -3.2 -11.5 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +8.9 -7.3 -3.9 -8.1 Retail .................................. +9.8 -11.9 -3.2 -12.8 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +14.2 -23.1 +0.3 -25.0 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................ +14.4 -25.5 +0.4 -27.3 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +6.5 -13.0 -2.7 -15.4 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... -8.2 -10.0 -1.3 -4.1 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers +28.1 -7.6 -2.7 -14.9 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +7.4 -1.8 -8.9 -2.1 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +7.4 -2.1 -9.7 -2.5 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +7.6 +3.5 -4.4 -0.5 447 Gasoline stations................................ +12.3 -34.3 -4.2 -34.4 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +9.0 -8.7 +9.5 -5.9 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +12.1 -3.0 -19.7 -4.5 452 General merchandise stores....................... +7.4 -2.3 +0.5 -1.3 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +9.4 -9.6 +3.7 -9.1 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +4.1 -2.7 +2.4 -4.5 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +3.6 -3.7 -9.0 -6.7 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +9.5 +1.2 -3.1 -0.1 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from not adjusted estimates provided in Table 1B of this report.
Survey Description
Reliability of Estimates
(1) Estimated measures of sampling variability are based on estimates not adjusted for seasonal variation, or holiday, or trading-day differences. Medians are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months. (2) These columns provide measures of the difference between the advance-to-preliminary and preliminary-to-final estimates of month-to-month change for the same pair of months as measured by the Advance sample and MRTS sample. The average and median differences are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months. Note: Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html
Current Quarter Retail E-Commerce Sales
Source: Retail Indicators Branch, U.S. Census Bureau | Last Revised: April 14, 2009
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