미국 FRB의 베이지북, Beige Book 2009년 9월호가, 9월 9일(현지) 발표되었습니다.
베이지북은 미국의 경제상황, 경기동향을 보여주는 주요지표로 연간 8회 작성, 공개되는데, 2009년 여섯번째에 해당합니다.

이번 베이지북에서 FRB는 미국 경기가 "개선을 보이고 있다"고 확실하게 언급하였습니다.

"경제활동은 더욱 안정화되었고, 개선의 신호들이 나타나고 있으며,
재고는 소비와 대등하고 관리되고 있고,있으며, 주택시장은 개선조짐이 나타나고 있다. 한편, 산업생산도 개선이 나타나고 있다.
반면에, 임금 상승압박은 최소한으로 유지되고 있고, 소비자 물가도 안정적"이라고 밝혔습니다.

fullreport20090909.pdf

경제활동은 더욱 안정화되었고, 개선의 신호들이 나타나고 있다.

The majority of Districts reported flat retail sales. Richmond, Philadelphia, Chicago, Atlanta, and Boston remarked that retailers continued to carefully manage inventories, keeping them in line with low sales levels. A majority of Districts confirmed that the "cash-for-clunkers" program boosted traffic and sales. Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, and Minneapolis also noted increases or planned increases in automobile-related production. Most regions reported some improvement in residential real estate markets. Downward pressure on home prices continued in most Districts, although Dallas and New York noted that local prices were firming. Reports on commercial real estate suggest that the demand for space remained weak and that nonresidential construction-related activity continued to decline. San Francisco, Philadelphia, and St. Louis noted that the demand for nonfinancial services remained soft, although the pace of the decline was described as slowing in the latter two Districts. Loan demand was described as weak and many Districts reported that credit standards remained tight. Most Districts reported improvements in manufacturing production. For instance, Philadelphia, Richmond, Atlanta, Cleveland, and Chicago reported moderate increases in new orders. Labor market conditions remained weak across all Districts. However, staffing firms in Atlanta, Dallas, Richmond, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Boston, New York, and Chicago did report a slight pickup in the demand for temporary workers.

재고는 소비와 유사하게 관리되고 있다. 주택시장은 개선조짐이 나타나고 있다. 산업생산도 개선이 나타나고 있다.

Wage pressures remained minimal across all Districts. Consumer prices were described as being steady in most Districts, although Kansas City and San Francisco noted some downward pressure on retail prices.

임금 상승압박은 최소한으로 유지되고 있다. 소비자 물가도 안정적이다.


부분별 내용

Consumer Spending and Tourism
Consumer spending remained soft in most Districts. The majority of Districts reported that retail activity was flat. Boston, Philadelphia, and Kansas City noted improvement in sales, but attributed the increase primarily to back-to-school purchases. Philadelphia, Chicago, Cleveland, and San Francisco observed that shoppers remained focused on essentials and continued to refrain from purchasing discretionary and big-ticket items. Kansas City and San Francisco noted weak restaurant sales. Richmond, Philadelphia, Chicago, Atlanta, and Boston remarked that retailer inventories were being closely monitored and were keeping them in line with low sales levels.

The majority of Districts reported that the cash-for-clunkers program helped boost traffic and sales, although Cleveland and Kansas City also remarked that used car sales were adversely affected by the program. The sustainability of the higher recent pace of new vehicle sales was questioned by industry contacts in the Richmond, Atlanta, Minneapolis, and San Francisco Districts.

Tourism activity varied. Kansas City, Minneapolis, and Richmond observed solid visitor numbers at local vacation destinations, whereas Atlanta and New York noted sluggish activity and aggressive hotel discounting. San Francisco reported that activity in California and Nevada was weak, but visitors to Hawaii had increased.

Real Estate and Construction
Residential real estate markets remained weak, but signs of improvement continued to be noted. Chicago, Richmond, Boston, and San Francisco observed an uptick in sales over the last six weeks, while sales in the Philadelphia District were described as steady. St. Louis commented that residential home sales had not improved. Most Districts reported that sales remained below the levels of a year earlier. However, Atlanta, New York, Cleveland, and Minneapolis documented some year-over-year gains in select markets. Most Districts noted that demand remained stronger at the low-end of the housing market. Boston, Cleveland, Dallas, Kansas City, Richmond, and New York indicated that the first-time home buyer tax incentive was spurring sales. However, Philadelphia did note an upturn in sales at the high-end of the market. Reports on house prices generally indicated ongoing downward pressures, although Dallas and New York noted some increases. Construction remained at low levels overall, although Chicago and Dallas reported a small increase in activity.

Reports on commercial real estate markets indicated that demand for space remained weak and that construction continued to decline in all Districts. Atlanta, Philadelphia, Richmond, and San Francisco reported that vacancy rates increased, while rates held steady in the Boston and Kansas City Districts and were mixed in New York. Boston, Dallas, Kansas City, Philadelphia, and Richmond commented that the demand for space remained weak. Commercial rents declined according to Boston, Chicago, New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond. Rent concessions were reported in the Richmond and San Francisco markets, and Richmond noted that some landlords had postponed property improvements in an effort to conserve cash. Construction remained at very low levels, with modest improvements noted in public construction in the Chicago, Cleveland, and Minneapolis Districts.

Nonfinancial Services
Reports on the demand for nonfinancial services were mixed. San Francisco, Philadelphia, and St. Louis noted that the demand for service sector business remained soft, although the pace of decline was described as having slowed in the latter two Districts. The demand for legal services remained relatively flat at low levels according to Dallas and Minneapolis. Kansas City and Richmond cited increasing demand for technology-related services. Healthcare services in Minneapolis also experienced an uptick in demand. Demand for transportation services were mixed, with some Districts noting stabilization at weak levels. Reports indicated that freight volume declines were moderating in Cleveland, while Dallas and Atlanta reported a modest pickup in rail shipments.

Banking and Financial Services
Most Districts reported that loan demand was weak and that credit standards remained tight. New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Kansas City, St. Louis, and San Francisco observed further weakening in loan demand across most categories. Dallas noted scattered reports of improvements in loan demand. Contacts in Cleveland, Chicago, and Dallas noted an increase in demand for auto loans. Credit standards ranged from unchanged to tighter in most Districts. However, Chicago reported that credit conditions and availability had improved.

Mortgage activity declined modestly according to the Philadelphia, Cleveland, and Kansas City Districts, while Richmond reported increases attributed to improved demand for starter homes. Dallas noted an uptick in refinancing activity. Commercial and industrial lending declined in the Philadelphia and Kansas City regions, and was steady according to Richmond. The lack of available credit was cited as an issue for both residential and commercial contractors in Cleveland, and for commercial real estate borrowers in Atlanta. San Francisco reported an increase in venture capital investment.

Further deterioration in credit quality was noted by Philadelphia, Richmond, Dallas, and San Francisco, whereas Cleveland observed some improvement in credit quality. Chicago also cited improvements in credit quality, apart from home equity and commercial real estate. Dallas and Chicago noted increases in consumer bankruptcies, while rising delinquency rates were reported by New York and Cleveland.

Manufacturing
Most Districts reported modest improvements in the manufacturing sector. Philadelphia, Richmond, Atlanta, Cleveland, and Chicago all reported slight-to-moderate increases in new orders. San Francisco indicated that new orders increased for manufacturers of semiconductors and other IT products, while orders declined for metal fabricators and petroleum refineries. Dallas noted that orders held steady, while St. Louis reported that manufacturing output continued to decline, but at a slower pace. Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, and Minneapolis reported increases or planned increases in automobile and automobile-related production. Several Districts also noted increased production in the pharmaceutical industry.

The near-term outlook among manufacturers varied, but the majority of reports indicated that manufacturers were cautiously optimistic. Boston, New York, and Philadelphia reported that their contacts expect modest growth later this year or early 2010. Boston noted that while its contacts generally expect modest growth, several cost control measures would remain in place. Dallas reported increased uncertainty among construction-related manufacturers, while Cleveland noted that half of their manufacturing contacts expected weak demand into 2010.

Employment, Wages, and Prices
Labor market conditions remained weak across all Districts, but several also noted an uptick in temporary hiring and a decline in the pace of layoffs. Richmond reported that most service-providing firms continued to cut employees, while Minneapolis and New York noted additional layoffs in the manufacturing sector. Cleveland reported modest job declines in the banking, commercial construction, and coal mining sectors. Further job cuts are expected in auto manufacturing according to St. Louis, and Dallas indicated further staff reductions are anticipated in the airline, energy, and residential construction sectors. Staffing firms in a majority of Districts reported a modest increase in the demand for temporary workers, although industry contacts in Boston also questioned whether these gains will persist. New York cited a modest pickup in temporary hiring for the legal and financial industries. Chicago noted an uptick in demand for workers in the healthcare and information technology industries. St. Louis and Minneapolis reported that federal stimulus funds have had a positive impact on construction and local government jobs.

Wage pressures remained low across all Districts. Several Districts noted businesses and local governments imposing wage freezes or even reducing employee compensation in some instances. Boston noted that several manufacturers who have cut wage rates do not expect to restore pay levels until next year. Kansas City, Philadelphia, Chicago, Minneapolis, San Francisco, Dallas, and Richmond noted an increase in the cost of some raw materials, including fuel, metals, and steel. Chicago and Dallas mentioned that excess supply was putting substantial downward pressure on natural gas prices. Retail prices were described as generally steady in most Districts, although Kansas City and San Francisco noted continued discounting and downward pressure on consumer prices.

Agriculture and Natural Resources
Reports on agricultural activity were mixed. Weather conditions were described as being favorable in St. Louis, Kansas City, and Atlanta. However, cold weather, crop diseases, and drought were limiting production of corn, cotton, and soybeans in the Chicago, Minneapolis, and Dallas Districts. Drought and weak market conditions were significantly affecting livestock industries according to Kansas City and Dallas. Dallas reported that some ranchers had liquidated portions of their cattle herds, while hog producers in the Kansas City District were said to be struggling as a result of lower pork prices.

Atlanta, Dallas, Kansas City, and San Francisco noted increased oil and gas inventories as a result of reduced consumption. Contacts in the natural gas industry noted that subdued demand continued to suppress prices and has lead to cutbacks in extraction activity. Cleveland indicated that weak demand for electricity prompted coal producers to scale back production and capital investment. Kansas City noted that although coal production in Wyoming had risen, it remained below year-ago levels. Dallas and Atlanta remarked that oil and gas drilling activity continued to decline in the Gulf of Mexico, whereas Kansas City and Dallas reported that the number of rigs operating on land had increased.

미국 FRB의 베이지북, Beige Book 2009년 7월호가, 7월 29일(현지) 발표되었습니다.

베이지북은 미국의 경제상황, 경기동향을 보여주는 주요지표로 연간 8회 작성, 공개됩니다.

베이지북은 미국 12개 각 지역 연방은행들이 수집한 미국 12개 지역의 경기동향을 요약한 자료로,
미국 경제상황을 보여주는 핵심지표로 작용하며, FRB, Federal Reserve Bank 가 발표합니다.

이들 12개 지역은 Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, San Francisco 입니다.

다음 베이지북은 9월 9일, 10월 21일, 12월 2일 발표될 예정입니다.

이번 발표의 내용을 보면, 직전에 발표된 6월 10일 보고서와 유사하게, 경기침체의 가속도가 둔화하였음을 나타내고 있습니다.
따라서, 다음에 발표될 9월, 10월, 12월 중의 하반기 보고서에서는 상황이 보다 더 개선될 가능성은 충분히 열려있습니다.
그러나, 그런 시기적 모멘텀이 중요한 것이 아니라, 그 내용을 들여다보고 확인한 후 판단해야 할 것입니다.

fullreport20090729.pdf

첨부 : 보고서 전문 파일 (2009.07.29. Beige Book)

Summary

Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and based on information collected on or before July 20, 2009. This document summarizes comments received from business and other contacts outside the Federal Reserve and is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials.

전문요지

Reports from the 12 Federal Reserve Districts suggest that economic activity continued to be weak going into the summer, but most Districts indicated that the pace of decline has moderated since the last report or that activity has begun to stabilize, albeit at a low level. Five Districts used the words "slow", "subdued", or "weak" to describe activity levels; Chicago and St. Louis reported that the pace of decline appeared to be moderating; and New York, Cleveland, Kansas City, and San Francisco pointed to signs of stabilization. Minneapolis said the District economy had contracted since the last report.

12개 연방 지역에서 경제활동은 여름에 접어들면서도 약화되었다. 그러나 침체의 속도(pace)는 직전 보고서 이후 비록 낮은 정도이기는 하나, 안정화되고 둔화되었음을 나타내고 있다.

Most Districts reported sluggish retail activity. Cleveland, Richmond, and Minneapolis noted further declines in sales, although results were somewhat mixed or positive according to retailers in the Boston, Philadelphia, St. Louis, Kansas City, and San Francisco Districts. Manufacturing activity showed some improvement in the Richmond, Chicago, and Kansas City Districts; while St. Louis and Dallas reported some moderation of declines; Philadelphia and Minneapolis saw activity decrease; and most other Districts indicated that manufacturing activity continued at low levels. Boston, Richmond, St. Louis, Minneapolis, and San Francisco reported contractions in services industries. Banking sectors in the New York, Cleveland, Richmond, St. Louis, Kansas City, and San Francisco Districts experienced weaker demand for some categories of loans. Residential real estate markets stayed soft in most Districts, although many noted some signs of improvement. By contrast, commercial real estate markets weakened further in recent months in two-thirds of the Districts and remained slow in the others.

소매판매, 매출은 여전히 둔화세이고, 제조활동은 낮은 수준을 유지하고 있다. 주거용 주택시장은 안정화되고 있으며, 일부 주에서는 개선 조짐도 나타나고 있다. 반면에, 상업용 부동산 시장은 최근 수 개월에 더욱 침체하였다.

Districts reported varied--but generally modest--price changes across sectors and products, with competitive pressures damping increases; however, Boston, Cleveland, Chicago, Minneapolis, and Dallas noted that some metals prices have increased in recent months. Most Districts indicated that labor markets were extremely soft, with minimal wage pressures, and cited the use of various methods of reducing compensation in addition to, or instead of, freezing or cutting wages.

노동시장의 압박은 둔화하고 있는데, 임금삭감과 동결보다는 다른 대체 수단을 사용하고 있기 때문이다. 


부분별 내용

Consumer Spending and Tourism
Consumer spending in the early summer remained below previous-year levels in most Districts, as households continued to be price conscious. Boston, Kansas City, and San Francisco experienced either modest sales increases or less negative sales results than in recent reporting periods. Philadelphia, Atlanta, St. Louis, New York, and Dallas cited flat or mixed sales, while sales in the remaining Districts remained soft. Several Districts noted that consumers focused on purchasing less expensive necessities, while sales of big ticket items languished. Retailers in Boston, Philadelphia, and Dallas characterized their outlook as cautious.

Auto sales were mixed across the country. Chicago, Minneapolis, and Kansas City saw modest increases in car sales, while New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, and Atlanta continued to experience subdued sales. The exception was sales of used vehicles, which continued to be strong or were strengthening, according to Philadelphia, Cleveland, Atlanta, Kansas City, and San Francisco.

Travel and tourism declined in the majority of Districts. The San Francisco District observed a sharp drop in luxury and business travel, while tourism activity in New York City was weak but stable since the last Beige Book report. Tourism contacts along the Atlantic coast reported that with the exception of July 4th holiday bookings, business was generally weaker than a year ago. Hotel room rates have declined in several Districts.

Nonfinancial Services
District reports regarding nonfinancial services industries were largely negative, although they included a few bright spots. The Minneapolis, St. Louis, and Dallas Districts indicated that demand for professional services such as business support, architecture, and legal services continued to decline or remained soft. By contrast, reports from the healthcare sector were largely positive, with the San Francisco, Minneapolis, and Richmond Districts citing steady to increased demand for medical services, and the Atlanta, Cleveland, Chicago, and Dallas Districts reporting hiring activity in health care. Technology-related firms in the Kansas City District also reported heightened activity, especially in the clean technology and defense-driven aerospace markets. Richmond and Minneapolis noted increased demand for information technology workers, and Atlanta saw hiring activity in the defense and aerospace industry. Staffing industry contacts in numerous Districts suggested a higher demand for temporary or part-time workers over permanent hires, and Atlanta noted that employers were taking advantage of a higher supply of skilled labor to improve the quality of their workforces.

Nearly all Districts reporting on transportation services observed continued weakness. Freight transport respondents from the Atlanta, Dallas, and Cleveland Districts noted that cargo volumes remain below year-earlier levels. While Cleveland contacts reported that competitive shipping rates are being maintained, trucking contacts from the Atlanta District noted that an oversupply of trucks relative to demand has exerted downward pressure on rates. A few Districts also reported reduced airline traffic, especially amongst business travelers.

Manufacturing
Reports on the manufacturing sector remained subdued but were slightly more positive than in the previous Beige Book. Many Districts characterized manufacturing activity as remaining depressed but with selected signs of modest improvement. Philadelphia, Minneapolis, Atlanta, and St. Louis reported decreased manufacturing activity; however, the latter two Districts noted that the overall rate of decline abated in the latest reporting period. Richmond and Kansas City reported rising manufacturing activity, albeit chiefly in nondurables industries. Districts attributed some of the recent increases in production to replenishment of finished-goods or customer inventories.

Chicago indicated that the quick resolutions of the Chrysler and GM bankruptcies have boosted business confidence, and that automakers were scheduling a pickup in production for July. However, ongoing shutdowns of domestic auto plants have led to precariously low business volumes for parts suppliers, according to Chicago and St. Louis. Steel production remained depressed but has leveled off or increased somewhat, according to Cleveland, Chicago, and St. Louis. Similarly, Dallas observed that refineries increased their capacity utilization slightly over the past six weeks, but that overall industry conditions remain weak because of low demand for fuels. Various District reports noted cancellations of orders for commercial aircraft and continued weak demand for most types of equipment and machinery. Among the positive developments in manufacturing, several Districts mentioned pickups in technology sectors, or cited strong or rising sales of military products or pharmaceuticals.

Comments on the near-term outlook varied across Districts, but on the whole they appear consistent with a forecast of modest and uneven recovery in manufacturing output beginning during roughly the coming six to twelve months. New York, Philadelphia, and Atlanta indicated that manufacturers have a generally positive or improved near-term outlook. Dallas reported that high-tech manufacturers "are seeing some upside potential in their forecasts instead of just down-side risks," but that construction-related manufacturers "expect no improvement in the near term." Boston indicated that many respondents expect continued sub-par revenue numbers for the remainder of the year, but "look forward to slowly improving business in 2010," while Cleveland and Kansas City reported that manufacturing contacts expect little or no change in demand through the end of 2009.

Real Estate and Construction
Commercial real estate leasing markets were described as either "weak" or "slow" in all 12 Districts, although the severity of the downturn varied somewhat across Districts. While the office vacancy rate was up and rents were down in the Dallas District, market fundamentals there remained stronger than the national average. Market conditions in the New York District are significantly worse than one year ago, on average, but have been relatively stable in recent weeks and some parts of the District report improving fundamentals. Office vacancy rates continued to climb in the Atlanta, Boston, Kansas City, Minneapolis, Philadelphia, Richmond, and San Francisco Districts, as well as in Manhattan, resulting in sizable leasing concessions and/or declines in asking rents. Significant weakness in the retail leasing sector was reported for the Boston, Minneapolis, and New York Districts, and industrial vacancy increased in the Atlanta, Dallas, Minneapolis, and St. Louis Districts. Commercial real estate sales volume remained low, even "non-existent" in some Districts, reportedly due to a combination of tight credit and weak demand. Construction activity was limited and/or declining in most Districts, although exceptions were noted for health and institutional construction in the St. Louis District, public sector construction in the Chicago District, and the reconstruction of the World Trade Center in Manhattan. Tight credit was cited as an ongoing factor in the dearth of new construction activity. The commercial real estate outlook was mixed, both within and across Districts. Some contacts expect commercial real estate markets to improve within two quarters and others predict further market deterioration for the remainder of 2009 and possibly through late 2010.

Residential real estate markets in most Districts remained weak, but many reported signs of improvement. The Minneapolis and San Francisco Districts cited large increases in home sales compared with 2008 levels, and other Districts reported rising sales in some submarkets. Of the areas that continued to experience year--over--year sales declines, all except St Louis--where sales were down steeply-- also reported that the pace of decline was moderating. In general, the low end of the market, especially entry-level homes, continued to perform relatively well; contacts in the New York, Kansas City, and Dallas Districts attributed this relative strength, at least in part, to the first--time homebuyer tax credit. Condo sales were still far below year--before levels according to the Boston and New York reports. In general, home prices continued to decline in most markets, although a number of Districts saw possible signs of stabilization. The Boston, Atlanta, and Chicago Districts mentioned that the increasing number of foreclosure sales was exerting downward pressure on home prices. Residential construction reportedly remains quite slow, with the Chicago, Cleveland, and Kansas City Districts noting that financing is difficult.

Agriculture and Natural Resources
The farm sector reported better weather in much of the country in June and early July. As a result, the supply and condition of many crops have improved, and prices have fallen. In the Richmond and Atlanta Districts, generally favorable weather has facilitated the vegetable, small grain or fruit harvest--much of which is in good condition. Similarly, contacts in several Districts including Chicago, St. Louis, and Kansas City indicated that the size and condition of the corn, soybean and/or rice crops have improved and that farmers are now planning to harvest more acres than previously expected; thus, prices and profits are?and for the short term are expected to remain?down. By contrast, the production of wheat or barley is expected to fall well below strong 2008 levels in the St. Louis and Minneapolis Districts. In the Dallas District, where a drought continues, much of the corn, cotton, and other crops were described as "not worth harvesting," and producers are collecting insurance.

Livestock contacts in the Chicago, Kansas City, and Dallas Districts report that prices for dairy, hogs, and cattle have fallen by more than operating costs and some ranchers are liquidating herds. In the Chicago District, livestock operations have reportedly lost their cash cushion and have been unable to get financing; contacts in Dallas, where the ongoing drought has destroyed forage, also note concerns about ranchers' cash flow.

With oil prices up to $70 per barrel in the first half of 2009 but recently trending down, oil production was reportedly flat in June and early July in the Cleveland, Minneapolis, and Kansas City Districts and up slightly in Dallas and San Francisco. Contacts in Atlanta indicate that the number of rigs operating in the Gulf of Mexico had fallen by half year over year while in Dallas the number of working rigs was up slightly. Natural gas prices continue to fall, discouraging drilling in the Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts. Kansas City energy producers report financial strains and are cutting headcounts selectively, while contacts in Dallas observe much excess capacity and weak demand for energy services. In response to weak demand from the utilities, coal prices in the Cleveland District have fallen 50 percent since early 2009, and coal production, jobs and hours are down; capital spending has fallen to minimum maintenance levels. In Minneapolis, by contrast, new wind projects have been announced.

Banking and Financial Services
In most reporting Districts, overall lending activity was stable or weakened further for most loan categories. In contrast, Philadelphia reported a slight increase in business, consumer, and residential real estate lending. As businesses remained pessimistic and reluctant to borrow, demand for commercial and industrial loans continued to fall or stay weak in the New York, Richmond, St. Louis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts. Consumer loan demand decreased in New York, St. Louis, Kansas City, and San Francisco, stabilized at a low level in Chicago and Dallas, and was steady to up in Cleveland.

Residential real estate lending decreased in New York, Richmond, and St. Louis. Dallas reported steady but low outstanding mortgage volumes, while Kansas City noted that the rise in mortgage loans slowed. Refinancing activity fell dramatically in Richmond, decreased in New York and Cleveland, and maintained its pace in Dallas. Bankers in the New York District indicated no change in delinquency rates in all loan categories except residential mortgages, while Cleveland, Atlanta, and San Francisco reported rising delinquencies on loans linked to real estate.

Banks continued to tighten credit standards in the New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, Chicago, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts; and some have stepped up the requirements for the commercial real estate category, in particular, due to concern over declining loan quality. Meanwhile, Cleveland and Atlanta reported that higher credit standards remained in place, with no change expected in the near term. Credit quality deteriorated in Philadelphia, Cleveland, Kansas City, and San Francisco, while loan quality exceeded expectations in Chicago and remained steady in Richmond.

Employment, Wages, and Prices
All Districts indicated that labor markets remain slack, with most sectors either reducing jobs or holding them steady and aggregate employment continuing to decline, on net. However, Boston, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, and Minneapolis noted selective hiring, including attempts by some firms to take advantage of layoffs elsewhere to pick up experienced talent. Richmond, Chicago, St. Louis, and Dallas cited moderation in the pace of manufacturing employment decline since the last report, and New York noted some signs of labor market stabilization. But Atlanta reported further deterioration in labor market conditions and additional job cuts already planned for coming months.

The weakness of labor markets has virtually eliminated upward wage pressure, and wages and compensation are steady or falling in most Districts; however, Boston cited some manufacturing and business services firms raising pay selectively, and Minneapolis said wage increases were moderate. Boston, Cleveland, Richmond, Chicago, Dallas, and San Francisco cited a range of methods firms are using to limit compensation, including cutting or freezing wages or benefit contributions, deferral of future salary increases, trimming bonuses and travel allowances, reducing hours, temporary shutdowns, periodic furloughs, and unpaid vacations.

Most Districts reported that upward price pressures were minimal. Manufacturers in the Boston, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Minneapolis, Kansas City, and Dallas Districts indicated that most materials costs were flat or down; however, several Districts mentioned price increases for some metals, petrochemicals, and building materials. While the Boston, New York, and Kansas City reports say a few firms are making modest price increases stick, selling prices of most manufacturers and retailers were reportedly held down by competitive pressures. Services firms have increased discounting and/or cut fees, according to contacts in Boston, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Dallas, and San Francisco, while Richmond indicated price increases for services were mild.

기업재고/매출 지표(ratio) : 2000~2009.07

기업재고,Business Inventories 월간변화율(%)

기업재고(Business Inventories) 지표를 보면 2008년말 이후로 감소가 지속되고 있습니다.
경기가 활황이어서 물건이 잘 나가서 재고가 없어져서 감소하는 것이 아니라,
경기가 불황이어서 새로 생산되는 물건이 적고, 재고물량만 밀어내고 있으므로, 재고가 감소하고 있다고 볼 수 있습니다.

재고 물량이 소진되는 이런 재고 조정(Inventories Re-adjustment)이 끝나고, 새로운 생산이 촉진될 수 있는 촉매가 분출되어야 경기가 다소 활력을 찾을 것으로 볼 수 있습니다.

그러나, 위 기업재고 월간변화율(%) 그래프 추세를 보면 계속 감소 중이나 추세가 둔화되고 있기 때문에, 일정 시기가 지나면 일단 시기적인 모멘텀은 확보될 것으로 볼 수 있습니다. 문제는 그런 시기가 아니라, 막상 닥쳤을 때의 그 강도라 할 것입니다. 재고조정이 마무리되는 시기에도 지지부진할 것이냐, 아니면 다소 활력의 모멘텀을 찾을 것인가가 향후 적정 시기에 다다랐을 때의 관심사항입니다. 

위의 추세들은 일정 시간이 경과하면 경기 전환의 시기적 모멘텀, 기회를 가질 것으로 당연히 나타내고 있기 때문에, 단기 주가에 아주 악재는 아닙니다. 따라서 다우존스지수(DJIA, 다우지수), 나스닥 지수도 강보합에 일일 마감한 모습입니다.

이하, 통계국(Census Bureau)의 발표내용 요지입니다.

Timothy Winters (Retail): (301) 763-2713                                                                                                                            CB09-106
John Miller (Wholesale): (301) 763-2703
Chris Savage (Manufacturing): (301) 763-4832

MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES AND SALES
May 2009

Sales. The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers' shipments for May, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $966.1 billion, down 0.1 percent (±0.2%)* from April 2009 and down 17.8 percent (±0.5%) from May 2008.

Inventories. Manufacturers' and trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1,368.1 billion, down 1.0 percent (±0.1%) from April 2009 and down 8.0 percent (±0.4%) from May 2008.

Inventories/Sales Ratio. The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of May was 1.42. The May 2008 ratio was 1.27.

미국 내구재주문 (forexfactory.com)

HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE ADVANCE REPORT ON MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS

May 2009--------------- Released 8:30 A.M. EDT June 24, 2009
(M3-1(09)-05)
Note: All figures in text are in seasonally adjusted current dollars
For Data - (301) 763-4673
For Questions - Chris Savage or Jessica Young
(301) 763-4832

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in May increased $2.8 billion or 1.8 percent to $163.9 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This was the third increase in the last four months and followed a 1.8 percent April increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.1 percent. Excluding defense, new orders also increased 1.4 percent.

Shipments

Shipments of manufactured durable goods in May, down ten consecutive months, decreased $3.6 billion or 2.1 percent to $169.9 billion. This was the longest streak of consecutive monthly decreases since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 0.5 percent April decrease.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in May, down eight consecutive months, decreased $2.0 billion or 0.3 percent to $747.5 billion. This followed a 1.1 percent April decrease.

Inventories

Inventories of manufactured durable goods in May, down five consecutive months, decreased $2.5 billion or 0.8 percent to $323.3 billion. This followed a 1.1 percent April decrease.

Capital Goods Industries

Nondefense

Nondefense new orders for capital goods in May increased $4.9 billion or 10.0 percent to $53.8 billion.

Defense

Defense new orders for capital goods in May increased $0.8 billion or 7.4 percent to $12.0 billion.

Released June 24, 2009. This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers' shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus nondurable goods will be published July 2, 2009. The advance report on durable goods for June is scheduled for release July 29, 2009.

Our internet address is: http://www.census.gov/m3

Release Date: June 24, 2009

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that the pace of economic contraction is slowing. Conditions in financial markets have generally improved in recent months. Household spending has shown further signs of stabilizing but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Businesses are cutting back on fixed investment and staffing but appear to be making progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales. Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee continues to anticipate that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will contribute to a gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth in a context of price stability.

4월 이후 FOMC가 수집한 정보에 따르면, 경기침체의 속도는 둔화되고 있다.
금융시장의 상태도 최근 수개월간 일반적으로는 개선되었다.
가계소비도 안정화되고 있으나, 여전히 실업 확대와 낮은 가계 소득에 직면해 있다.
... 물가는 전반적으로 안정화되어 있고, FOMC는 경기개선 촉진을 위한 정책을 지속할 것이다.

The prices of energy and other commodities have risen of late. However, substantial resource slack is likely to dampen cost pressures, and the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time.

에너지와 상품 일부 가격이 오르고 있지만, 물가압박을 주기에는 한계가 있다.
위원회는 인플레이션이 당분간 억제된 상태로 유지될 것을 기대한다.

In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. As previously announced, to provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of up to $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $200 billion of agency debt by the end of the year. In addition, the Federal Reserve will buy up to $300 billion of Treasury securities by autumn. The Committee will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets. The Federal Reserve is monitoring the size and composition of its balance sheet and will make adjustments to its credit and liquidity programs as warranted.

연방기금(Federal Reserve)은 (여전히) 물가안정과 경기회복을 위한 모든 수단을 활용할 것이다.


Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Donald L. Kohn; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Daniel K. Tarullo; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.
 

미국 연방기금 금리 추이 (위키페디아)

The FOMC holds eight regularly scheduled meetings during the year and other meetings as needed. Links to policy statements and minutes are in the calendars below. The minutes of regularly scheduled meetings are released three weeks after the date of the policy decision.

FOIA
The FOMC makes an annual report pursuant to the Freedom of Information Act. The FOMC FOIA Service Center provides information about the status of FOIA requests and the FOIA process.

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