다음은 2009년 4월자 미국 베이지북(Beige Book) 주요내용입니다. 2009년 4월 15일 발표 (현지)

Summary

---

Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas based on information collected on or before April 6, 2009. This document summarizes comments received from business and other contacts outside the Federal Reserve and is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials.

---

April 15, 2009

Reports from the Federal Reserve Banks indicate that overall economic activity contracted further or remained weak. However, five of the twelve Districts noted a moderation in the pace of decline, and several saw signs that activity in some sectors was stabilizing at a low level.

전반적인 경제 활동은 침체를 지속하고 여전히 약세이지만, 12개 지역 중 5개 지역은 침체 속도가 완화하고 있고 미약하지만 몇몇 산업 섹터 활동은 약한 정도로 완화되는 징후가 나타나고 있습니다. 

(*주: 베이지북의 주요 관찰 지역은, Districts 는 Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St.Louis, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, San Francisco 입니다.)

Boston
New York
Philadelphia
Cleveland
Richmond
Atlanta
Chicago
St. Louis
Minneapolis
Kansas City
Dallas
San Francisco

Manufacturing activity weakened across a broad range of industries in most Districts, with only a few exceptions. Nonfinancial service activity continued to contract across Districts. Retail spending remained sluggish, although some Districts noted a slight improvement in sales compared with the previous reporting period. Residential real estate markets continued to be weak. Home prices and construction were still falling in most areas, but better-than-expected buyer traffic led to a scattered pickup in sales in a number of Districts. Nonresidential real estate conditions continued to deteriorate. Difficulty obtaining commercial real estate financing was constraining construction and investment activity. Spending on business travel declined as corporations cut back. Reports on tourism were mixed. Bankers reported tight credit conditions, rising delinquencies, and some deterioration of loan quality.

Agricultural conditions were generally favorable across Districts, although drought conditions persisted in the Dallas and San Francisco Districts. The Districts reporting on energy said reduced demand, high inventories, and lower prices led to steep cutbacks in oil and natural gas drilling and production activity. The Minneapolis, Kansas City, and Dallas Districts noted declines in employment in the oil and gas extraction industry.

Downward pressure on prices was reported across Districts. Wage and salary pressures eased as labor markets weakened in all Districts, and many contacts continued to report job cuts and wage and hiring freezes. Employment continued to decline across a range of industries, with only scattered reports of hiring.

Manufacturing
Manufacturing activity continued to decline in most Districts and across a wide range of industries. Several reports, however, noted that the pace of decline had slowed or that factory activity had stabilized. The Boston, Philadelphia, Richmond, Atlanta, St. Louis, Minneapolis, and San Francisco Districts cited decreases in production. The Chicago and Kansas City Districts said declines in production had slowed. The Cleveland District noted some leveling off in declines in new orders, and the New York and Dallas Districts noted that demand was beginning to bottom out following steep declines. Orders and shipments of capital goods, autos, paper, and construction-related equipment and products such as metals, wood products, lumber and electrical machinery remained mostly sluggish and below year-ago levels, with the Chicago District noting an increase in order cancellations and deferral requests. Aircraft makers in the Chicago District noted declines in demand, while aerospace manufacturers in the San Francisco District reported that a drop in airline passenger traffic and cargo capacity had spurred order cancellations and delivery deferrals.

In contrast, orders and sales of high-tech equipment firmed somewhat at very weak levels in the Dallas and San Francisco Districts. Defense firms in the Boston and Cleveland Districts reported solid activity. Food manufacturers saw sales gains in the Philadelphia and San Francisco Districts, and a food manufacturer in the St. Louis District noted plans to open a new plant. Pharmaceutical firms in the Boston and Chicago Districts continued to see solid demand; petrochemical producers in the Dallas District noted a slight turnaround in operating rates.

Manufacturers' assessments of future factory activity improved marginally over the survey period as well, with contacts in the Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Kansas City Districts noting a slight upturn in the outlook for production and sales. Capital expenditure plans remained on hold across most regions, and the Boston, Philadelphia, and Cleveland Districts noted cuts in capital budgets.

Nonfinancial Services
Districts that report on nonfinancial business services said demand continued to fall across most industries. Providers of health-care services noted further declines in activity, and contacts in several Districts noted demand for professional services, such as architecture, business consulting and legal services, remained weak. Demand for IT services was mixed. Among service firms, there were reports of customers delaying payments or asking for price reductions, and receivables were harder to collect.

While there were scattered reports of optimism, temporary staffing firms generally continued to report weak conditions. Firms in the Dallas District were not renewing contracts on current personnel, and the New York District characterized the supply of available workers as "inexhaustible."

Shipping activity continued to fall over the past six weeks as both domestic and international demand remained dampened. Contacts in several Districts said shipments of construction-related manufacturing products continued to drop at a substantial pace.

Consumer Spending and Tourism
Consumer spending remained generally weak. However, several Districts said sales rose slightly or declines moderated compared with the previous survey period. In particular, the Boston, Cleveland, and Chicago Districts reported an improvement in sales. Purchases of big ticket and luxury items continued to decline while spending on food and necessities fared better. The Philadelphia, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts reported that consumers were looking for value, and were opting for lower-priced, private label products over higher-priced alternatives. Retailers kept inventories lean, in line with the slow pace of sales, and most expect demand to stay at current low levels over the next few months.

Auto dealers continued to struggle, and overall vehicle sales were sluggish in all reporting Districts as weak demand and tight credit continued to limit sales. Used vehicle sales improved slightly in the Boston, Cleveland, Kansas City, and San Francisco Districts, but new car sales remained feeble. Dealers in the Philadelphia District reported difficulty in obtaining financing for inventory purchases, and a few dealerships in the St. Louis District went out of business, but dealers in the Cleveland District reported minimal problems with floor-plan financing. While auto dealers in the Boston, Cleveland, and Kansas City Districts noted some improvements in the outlook, those in the Philadelphia and Dallas Districts expect continued weakness.

Travel and tourism activity contracted further in several reporting Districts, as households and businesses continued to scale back on discretionary and travel spending. Tourist spending in the New York, Minneapolis, and San Francisco Districts saw double-digit declines compared with the prior year. Airlines in the Dallas District and hotel contacts in the Kansas City District reported weakening demand for business travel, while the Atlanta District noted convention cancellations. Restaurants continued to see sluggish activity in the Kansas City and San Francisco Districts, which prompted further layoffs and closures in the latter region. In contrast, mountain resorts in the Richmond District said ski season demand was on par with last year, and cruise liners in the Atlanta District reported that deep discounting spurred bookings.

Real Estate and Construction
Housing markets remained depressed overall, but there were some signs that conditions may be stabilizing. Many Districts said factors such as homebuyer tax credits, low mortgage rates, and more affordable prices led to a rising number of potential buyers. The Richmond, Atlanta, Minneapolis, Kansas City, and San Francisco Districts noted a modest improvement in sales in some areas.

New home construction activity fell further, however, as inventories remained elevated. Nonetheless, several Districts, including Atlanta and Kansas City, said that inventories of unsold homes had turned down slightly.

Home prices continued to decline in most Districts, although a few reports noted that prices were unchanged or that the pace of decline had eased. Low mortgage rates were fueling refinancing activity. Outlooks for the housing sector were generally more optimistic than in earlier surveys, with respondents hopeful that increased buyer interest would lead to better sales.

Nonresidential real estate conditions continued to deteriorate over the past six weeks. Demand for office, industrial and retail space continued to fall, and there were reports of increases in sublease space. Rental concessions were rising. Property values moved lower as reality "set in." Construction activity continues to slow, and several Districts noted increased postponement of both private and public projects. Nonresidential construction is expected to decline through year-end, although there were some hopeful reports that the stimulus package may lead to some improvement.

Commercial real estate investment activity weakened further. Contacts said a decline in credit availability and markdowns on commercial property were keeping buyers and sellers on the sidelines.

Banking and Finance
Most Districts reported weaker loan demand overall, but the reports were mixed across loan categories. In particular, the New York, Richmond, and Kansas City Districts noted an increase in residential real estate loans. Additionally, residential refinancing activity remained brisk, although the loan process was taking longer due to more stringent appraisals and underwriting standards. Demand for commercial and industrial loans was weak, and there were several reports that business borrowers were postponing capital expenditures. Commercial real estate lending continued to decline. Credit availability generally remained very tight across regions. A number of Districts reported deteriorating loan quality and rising delinquencies for all types of loan categories. In particular, several reports noted more stringent requirements for commercial real estate loans due to worries of worsening loan quality in the sector.

Agriculture and Natural Resources
Most regions reported improved planting and growing conditions, with the exception of the Dallas and San Francisco Districts, which are experiencing ongoing drought. Although beneficial, rainfall delayed field preparations for spring planting in the Richmond and Chicago Districts. Contacts in the Chicago District reported that producers had benefited from falling input prices, which are helping farmers obtain loans. Livestock producers in the Chicago, Kansas City, and Dallas Districts continued to be challenged by weak demand and low prices. Low milk prices have resulted in significant financial losses for dairy farmers in the Chicago and Dallas Districts, and have caused producers in the latter region to reduce their dairy cow herds.

Reduced demand, rising inventories, and lower prices for oil and natural gas led to further declines in energy sector activity. Drilling activity fell sharply in the Minneapolis, Kansas City, and Dallas Districts; respondents in the Atlanta and San Francisco Districts reported decreases as well. The Dallas District noted that the number of working U.S. rigs contracted by 300, and more than half of the decline was in Texas. In contrast, production was stable in the Cleveland District; gold mining is strong and wind energy projects moved ahead as planned in the Minneapolis District. Consistent with falling activity, the Minneapolis, Kansas City, and Dallas Districts noted further layoffs in oil and gas extraction. Looking forward, energy contacts in the Cleveland District said that they intend to lower capital spending over the next few months.

Prices
Districts that report on prices noted downward pressures. Oil prices rose during the survey period, although most other commodity prices were stable to down. Manufacturers noted declines in the cost of raw materials and inputs, and product prices were generally said to be steady to down. Significant discounting was reported among retailers, and there were numerous examples of service providers reducing fees. In particular, accounting and legal firms in the Dallas District were responding to customer requests for lower fees, while the San Francisco District found prices were declining for professional services and lodging. Transportation service contacts noted a reduction in prices.

Labor Markets and Wages
Labor market conditions were weak and reports of layoffs, reductions in work hours, temporary factory shutdowns, branch closures and hiring freezes remained widespread across Districts. Staffing firms in the New York, Cleveland, Richmond, Chicago, and Dallas Districts reported that demand for workers remained sluggish. The manufacturing and energy extraction sectors were the most affected but there were numerous reports of job cuts in the retail and services industries as well. The St. Louis District reported payroll declines in information and medical services, while the Cleveland District cited layoffs in transportation and financial services. The Dallas District noted further cuts in the real estate and construction industry; layoffs at major financial firms continued in the New York District; and the Philadelphia District reported that unpaid furloughs had been instituted by state and local governments. In contrast, Districts including Cleveland, Chicago, and Minneapolis reported some hiring in healthcare. Contacts in the Richmond District noted solid demand for technically-skilled professionals and IT and office-support workers. The Chicago and Dallas Districts saw a slight uptick in hiring of finance personnel due to the sharp increase in mortgage refinance activity. The St. Louis District reported that a food manufacturer and some wood and plastic manufacturers planned on expanding their operations and hiring additional staff. The employment outlook is generally bleak. Contacts in several Districts have instituted hiring freezes and anticipate further cuts in jobs and work hours.

Continuing layoffs, furloughs and hiring freezes kept wage pressures minimal. Contacts from a broad range of industries reported pay freezes, with some noting salary reductions. The Minneapolis District reported that unionized faculty at Minnesota's technical and community colleges had tentatively accepted a two-year pay freeze. Contacts in the Boston, Philadelphia, Richmond, Chicago, and San Francisco Districts reported cuts in certain non-wage employment benefits, including cuts in bonuses, elimination or suspension of employer contributions to employee retirement programs, and increases in copayments on employer sponsored healthcare plans.

2009 Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions by Federal Reserve District Commonly known as the Beige Book, this report is published eight times per year. Each Federal Reserve Bank gathers anecdotal information on current economic conditions in its District through reports from Bank and Branch directors and interviews with key business contacts, economists, market experts, and other sources. The Beige Book summarizes this information by District and sector. An overall summary of the twelve district reports is prepared by a designated Federal Reserve Bank on a rotating basis. 2009 January 14 HTML 183 KB PDF February March 4 HTML 187 KB PDF April 15 HTML 260 KB PDF May June 10 July 29 August September 9 October 21 November December 2 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 | 1996

1970 - present (on the web site of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)

다음은 미국 기업재고, Business Inventories 월간 지표입니다.

 

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

TUESDAY, APRIL 14, 2009, AT 10:00 A.M. EDT

Timothy Winters (Retail): (301) 763-2713                                                                                                                            CB09-52
John Miller (Wholesale): (301) 763-2703
Chris Savage (Manufacturing): (301) 763-4832

MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES AND SALES
February 2009

Sales. The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for February, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $994.9 billion, up 0.2 percent (±0.2%)* from January 2009, but down 13.0 percent (±0.6%) from February 2008.

Inventories. Manufacturers’ and trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1,421.3 billion, down 1.3 percent (±0.1%) from January 2009 and down 3.5 percent (±0.3%) from February 2008.

Inventories/Sales Ratio. The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of February was 1.43. The February 2008 ratio was 1.29.

 

 

The Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales Report for March is scheduled to be released May 13, 2009 at 10:00 a.m. EDT.

For information, visit the Census Bureau’s Web site at <http://www.census.gov/bussales>. This report is also available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce’s STAT-USA (202-482-1986).

* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero.

 

Table 1. Estimated Monthly Sales and Inventories for Manufacturers, Retailers, and Merchant Wholesalers
(In millions of dollars)

See footnotes and notes at the end of Table 3.

(p) Preliminary estimate.
(r) Revised estimate.

 

Table 2. Percent Changes for Sales and Inventories--Manufacturers, Retailers, and Merchant Wholesalers

 

 

Table 3. Estimated Monthly Retail Sales, Inventories, and Inventories/Sales Ratios, By Kind of Business
(In millions of dollars)

(p) Preliminary estimate.
(r) Revised estimate.

¹ Inventories are on a non-LIFO basis as of the end of the month.
² Adjusted for seasonal variations and, in the case of sales, for trading-day differences and holiday variations. Concurrent seasonal adjustment is being used to adjust all sales, shipment, and inventory estimates. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12-ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are applied to the current and previous month estimates and for retail and wholesale estimates a year ago as well. For retail sales, concurrent seasonal adjustment is also used to adjust the advance estimates (published one month before the preliminary estimates) and the estimates one year before the advance month. This explains the revision to retail estimates from a year ago.
³ Manufacturers sales refer to the value of shipments by manufacturers. The shipments data from individual manufacturers are adjusted prior to tabulation for the number of trading days as well as for any variations in the length of the reporting period.
⁴ The 2002 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) defines merchant wholesalers as including manufacturers' sales branches and offices. However, the estimates included in this release exclude manufacturers' sales branches and offices. Note that this is not a change in coverage from prior releases and is consistent with the description used in the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey data products.

Note: U.S. and group totals include kinds of business not shown. The Manufacturing and Trade Inventory and Sales estimates are based on data from three surveys: the Monthly Retail Trade Survey, the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey, and the Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey. The sampling variability for retailers and merchant wholesalers can be used to construct a 90 percent confidence interval for the estimates. Over all possible samples, 90 percent of such intervals will cover the true estimate. These intervals are given in parentheses for the estimates on the front page. If, for example, the estimate is up 0.8 percent and the margin of sampling error is ±1.2 percent, the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.4 percent to +2.0 percent. If the range contains 0, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. Measures of reliability for Retail and Wholesale sales and inventory levels and changes are included in the detailed monthly press releases for those Industries. Manufacturers do not contribute to estimates of sampling variability because the manufacturer’s mail panel is not a probability sample from a known frame and standard errors of the industry estimates cannot be calculated. Estimates from all three surveys are also subject to nonsampling errors, which can arise in any stage of the survey. Such errors include coverage error (failure to accurately represent all population units in the sample), response errors, coding errors, and nonresponse. Although no direct measurement of these errors has been obtained, precautionary steps were taken in all phases of the collection, processing, and tabulation of the data to minimize their influence.

Source: Retail Indicators Branch, U.S. Census Bureau | Last Revised: April 14, 2009

Skip this navigation

Census Bureau Links:   Home · Search · Subjects A-Z · FAQs · Data Tools · Catalog · Census 2010 · Quality · Privacy Policy · Contact Us

Page Last Modified: April 14, 2009


출처 : http://www.census.gov/mtis/www/mtis_current.html

 
미국 소매판매, Retail Sales 지표가 월간 -1.1% 다시 감소하였고, 결국 근래 2개월간 소폭 개선되는 듯 했으나,
침체 흐름의 일시적 기술적 둔화에 불과하고, 다시 침체가 지속되는 흐름을 보여주고 있습니다.
장기 침체가 연장되는 흐름으로 경계와 충분한 시간 경과가 필요하다고 생각됩니다.  

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

TUESDAY, APRIL 14, AT 8:30 A.M. EDT

Timothy Winters / Aneta Erdie                                                                                                                                                                                            CB09-51
Service Sector Statistics Division
(301) 763-2713

ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL TRADE AND FOOD SERVICES

MARCH 2009

Intention to Revise Retail Estimates: Monthly retail sales estimates will be revised based on the results of the 2007 Annual Retail Trade Survey. Revised not adjusted and corresponding adjusted data are scheduled for release on April 30, 2009.

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $344.4 billion, a decrease of 1.1 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month and 9.4 percent (±0.7%) below March 2008. Total sales for the January through March 2009 period were down 8.8 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The January 2009 to February 2009 percent change was revised from -0.1 percent (±0.5%)* to +0.3 percent (±0.3%)*.

Retail trade sales were down 1.1 percent (±0.7%) from February 2009 and 10.7 percent (±0.7%) below last year. Gasoline stations sales were down 34.0 percent (±1.5%) from March 2008 and motor vehicle and parts dealers sales were down 23.5 percent (±2.3%) from last year.

The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau's full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.

Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales
(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)

The Advance Monthly Retail Sales for Retail and Food Services for April is scheduled to be released May 13, 2009 at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

For information, visit the Census Bureau's Web site at <http://www.census.gov/retail>. This report is also available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's STAT-USA (202-482-1986).

* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different than zero.

---

TABLE 1A.  ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--March 2009
Estimates adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes.
(Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(2)

                 (In Millions of dollars)


                                                                     2009     2009     2009     2008     2008
   NAICS(1)                    Kind of Business                      Mar(3)   Feb      Jan      Mar      Feb
   Code                                                              (a)      (p)      (r)      (r)      (r)

                Retail & food services, total....................   344,380  348,359  347,311  380,171  378,191

                 Total (excl. motor vehicle &  parts)............   288,203  290,844  288,038  306,746  304,410

                   Retail .......................................   305,830  309,246  308,613  342,444  340,684

                GAFO(4)..........................................       (*)   96,663   95,550   98,272   97,271

   441          Motor vehicle & parts dealers....................    56,177   57,515   59,273   73,425   73,781
   4411,4412     Auto & other motor veh. dealers.................    49,659   50,926   52,720   67,011   67,405

   442          Furniture & home furnishings stores..............     8,231    8,370    8,326    9,467    9,445

   443          Electronics & appliance stores....................    8,535    9,066    9,007    9,427    9,199
   44311,13      Appl., T.V. &  camera...........................       (*)    7,279    7,254    7,609    7,375
   44312         Computer & software stores......................       (*)    1,787    1,753    1,818    1,824

   444          Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers    24,488   24,645   24,762   26,971   27,538
   4441          Building mat. & supplies dealers................       (*)   20,585   20,590   22,998   23,608

   445          Food & beverage stores...........................    49,469   49,239   49,308   48,671   48,367
   4451          Grocery stores..................................    44,123   43,931   44,063   43,649   43,400
   4453          Beer, wine & liquor stores......................       (*)    3,578    3,591    3,452    3,421

   446          Health & personal care stores....................    21,124   21,037   20,910   20,233   20,260
   44611         Pharmacies & drug stores........................       (*)   17,320   17,198   16,765   16,762

   447          Gasoline stations................................    27,896   28,339   27,474   42,253   41,523

   448          Clothing & clothing accessories stores...........    17,939   18,266   17,775   18,901   18,655
   44811         Men's clothing stores...........................       (*)      (S)      (S)      (S)      (S)
   44812         Women's clothing stores.........................       (*)    3,044    2,982    3,349    3,359
   4482          Shoe stores.....................................       (*)    2,215    2,087    2,201    2,221

   451          Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores.......     7,287    7,355    7,350    7,396    7,311

   452          General merchandise stores.......................    50,146   50,229   49,643   49,509   49,204
   4521          Department stores (ex. L.D.)....................    16,057   16,106   15,965   16,990   17,103
   4521          Department stores (incl. L.D.)(5)...............       (*)     (NA)     (NA)     (NA)     (NA)
   4529          Other general merchandise stores................       (*)   34,123   33,678   32,519   32,101
   45291          Warehouse clubs & supercenters.................       (*)   30,253   29,954   28,875   28,385
   45299          All other gen. merchandise stores..............       (*)    3,870    3,724    3,644    3,716

   453          Miscellaneous store retailers....................     9,519    9,736    9,214    9,867    9,715

   454          Nonstore retailers...............................    25,019   25,449   25,571   26,324   25,686
   4541          Electronic shopping & mail-order houses.........       (*)   18,264   18,301   17,912   17,504

   722          Food services & drinking places..................    38,550   39,113   38,698   37,727   37,507


                (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business.

                (NA) Not available (S) Suppressed (a) Advance estimate  (p) Preliminary estimate  (r) Revised estimate

(1)   For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html

(2)   Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment
      uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12 ARIMA program.  The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally
      adjusted estimates shown in this table.  Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated.  Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found
      on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html

(3)   Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample.
      All other estimates are from the MRTS sample.

(4)   GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443),
      clothing & clothing accessories (448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise (452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores (4532).

(5)   Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores.  Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.





TABLE 1B.  ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--March 2009
Estimates not adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences and price changes.
                 (In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change)

                                                                       3 month total
                                                                                 % Chg.   2009     2009     2009     2008     2008
   NAICS(1)                    Kind of Business                        2009       from    Mar(2)   Feb      Jan      Mar      Feb
   Code                                                                           2008    (a)      (p)      (r)

                Retail & food services, total....................     966,116    -10.1   338,716  308,599  318,801  378,755  348,876

                 Total (excl. motor vehicle &  parts)............     800,901     -6.8   278,617  255,952  266,332  300,572  278,636

                   Retail .......................................     854,825    -11.5   299,742  273,006  282,077  340,236  313,244

                GAFO(3)..........................................         (*)       (*)      (*)   83,579   84,003   93,727   87,385

   441          Motor vehicle & parts dealers....................     165,215    -23.2    60,099   52,647   52,469   78,183   70,240
   4411,4412     Auto & other motor veh. dealers.................     146,785    -25.5    53,483   46,750   46,552   71,769   64,304
   44111          New car dealers................................         (*)       (*)      (*)   35,603   36,334   56,849   51,188
   4413          Auto parts, acc. & tire stores..................         (*)       (*)      (*)    5,897    5,917    6,414    5,936

   442          Furniture & home furnishings stores..............      23,094    -13.9     7,951    7,466    7,677    9,136    8,822
   4421          Furniture stores................................         (*)       (*)      (*)    4,434    4,370    5,100    5,063
   4422          Home furnishings stores.........................         (*)       (*)      (*)    3,032    3,307    4,036    3,759

   443          Electronics & appliance stores....................     24,895     -5.5     7,796    8,492    8,607    8,659    8,857
   44311,13      Appl., T.V. &  camera...........................         (*)       (*)      (*)    6,857    6,964    6,886    7,146
   44312         Computer & software stores......................         (*)       (*)      (*)    1,635    1,643    1,773    1,711

   444          Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers      61,313    -11.6    23,741   18,528   19,044   25,703   21,783
   4441          Building mat. & supplies dealers................         (*)       (*)      (*)   16,015   16,616   21,802   19,264

   445          Food & beverage stores...........................     140,814     -0.1    47,673   44,392   48,749   48,557   45,351
   4451          Grocery stores..................................     127,060     -0.5    42,888   39,933   44,239   43,824   40,970
   4453          Beer, wine & liquor stores......................         (*)       (*)      (*)    2,959    3,106    3,176    2,976

   446          Health & personal care stores....................      62,399      2.2    21,504   19,985   20,910   20,779   20,078
   44611         Pharmacies & drug stores........................         (*)       (*)      (*)   16,558   17,370   17,184   16,712

   447          Gasoline stations................................      76,454    -34.1    27,115   24,145   25,194   41,281   36,789

   448          Clothing & clothing accessories stores...........      45,569     -6.4    16,541   15,171   13,857   18,119   16,128
   44811         Men's clothing stores...........................         (*)       (*)      (*)      623      652      816      722
   44812         Women's clothing stores.........................         (*)       (*)      (*)    2,417    2,299    3,406    2,785
   44814         Family clothing stores..........................         (*)       (*)      (*)    5,713    5,461    6,751    5,680
   4482          Shoe stores.....................................         (*)       (*)      (*)    1,918    1,663    2,285    1,999

   451          Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores.......      19,367     -1.8     6,449    5,752    7,166    6,649    6,024

   452          General merchandise stores.......................     133,847     -0.3    46,841   43,611   43,395   47,929   44,205
   4521          Department stores (ex. L.D.)....................      40,277     -8.1    14,407   13,169   12,701   15,938   14,490
   4521          Department stores (incl. L.D.)(4)...............         (*)       (*)      (*)   13,523   13,038   16,384   14,891
   4529          Other general merchandise stores................         (*)       (*)      (*)   30,442   30,694   31,991   29,715
   45291          Warehouse clubs & supercenters.................         (*)       (*)      (*)   27,137   27,618   28,442   26,426
   45299          All other gen. merchandise stores..............         (*)       (*)      (*)    3,305    3,076    3,549    3,289

   453          Miscellaneous store retailers....................      26,010     -5.4     8,972    8,620    8,418    9,224    9,025

   454          Nonstore retailers...............................      75,848     -4.7    25,060   24,197   26,591   26,017   25,942
   4541          Electronic shopping & mail-order houses.........         (*)       (*)      (*)   16,346   17,843   16,855   16,401

   722          Food services & drinking places..................     111,291      2.0    38,974   35,593   36,724   38,519   35,632


                (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business.

                (NA) Not available  (a) Advance estimate  (p) Preliminary estimate  (r) Revised estimate

(1)   For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html

(2)   Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample.
      All other estimates are from the MRTS sample.

(3)   GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443),
      clothing & clothing accessories (448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise (452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores (4532).

(4)   Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores.  Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.





TABLE 2A. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--March 2009
Estimates adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes
(Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey,
 Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(*)

                                                                        Mar             Feb
                                                                        2009            2009
                                                                        adv.            prel.
                                                                        from--          from--



   NAICS                       Kind of Business                      Feb     Mar     Jan     Feb
   Code                                                              2009    2008    2009    2008
                                                                     (p)     (r)     (r)     (r)

                Retail & food Services, total....................     -1.1    -9.4    +0.3    -7.9

                  Total (excl. motor vehicle &  parts )..........     -0.9    -6.0    +1.0    -4.5

                        Retail ..................................     -1.1   -10.7    +0.2    -9.2

   441          Motor vehicle & parts dealers....................     -2.3   -23.5    -3.0   -22.0
   4411,4412       Auto & other motor veh. dealers...............     -2.5   -25.9    -3.4   -24.4

   442          Furniture & home furnishings stores..............     -1.7   -13.1    +0.5   -11.4

   443          Electronics & appliance stores...................     -5.9    -9.5    +0.7    -1.4

   444          Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers     -0.6    -9.2    -0.5   -10.5

   445          Food & beverage stores...........................     +0.5    +1.6    -0.1    +1.8
   4451          Grocery stores..................................     +0.4    +1.1    -0.3    +1.2

   446          Health & personal care stores....................     +0.4    +4.4    +0.6    +3.8

   447          Gasoline stations................................     -1.6   -34.0    +3.1   -31.8

   448          Clothing & clothing accessories stores...........     -1.8    -5.1    +2.8    -2.1

   451          Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........    -0.9    -1.5    +0.1    +0.6

   452          General merchandise stores.......................     -0.2    +1.3    +1.2    +2.1
   4521          Department stores (ex. L.D.)....................     -0.3    -5.5    +0.9    -5.8

   453          Miscellaneous stores retailers...................     -2.2    -3.5    +5.7    +0.2

   454          Nonstore retailers...............................     -1.7    -5.0    -0.5    -0.9

   722          Food services & drinking places..................     -1.4    +2.2    +1.1    +4.3


  (p) Preliminary estimate  (r) Revised estimate

  (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1A of this report.





TABLE 2B. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--March 2009
Data not adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences and price changes.
(Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey,
 Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(*)

                                                                        Mar             Feb
                                                                        2009            2009
                                                                        adv.            prel.
                                                                        from--          from--



   NAICS                       Kind of Business                      Feb     Mar     Jan     Feb
   Code                                                              2009    2008    2009    2008
                                                                     (p)     (r)     (r)     (r)

                Retail & food Services, total....................     +9.8   -10.6    -3.2   -11.5

                  Total (excl. motor vehicle &  parts )..........     +8.9    -7.3    -3.9    -8.1

                        Retail ..................................     +9.8   -11.9    -3.2   -12.8

   441          Motor vehicle & parts dealers....................    +14.2   -23.1    +0.3   -25.0
   4411,4412       Auto & other motor veh. dealers................   +14.4   -25.5    +0.4   -27.3

   442          Furniture & home furnishings stores..............     +6.5   -13.0    -2.7   -15.4

   443          Electronics & appliance stores...................     -8.2   -10.0    -1.3    -4.1

   444          Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers    +28.1    -7.6    -2.7   -14.9

   445          Food & beverage stores...........................     +7.4    -1.8    -8.9    -2.1
   4451          Grocery stores..................................     +7.4    -2.1    -9.7    -2.5

   446          Health & personal care stores....................     +7.6    +3.5    -4.4    -0.5

   447          Gasoline stations................................    +12.3   -34.3    -4.2   -34.4

   448          Clothing & clothing accessories stores...........     +9.0    -8.7    +9.5    -5.9

   451          Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........   +12.1    -3.0   -19.7    -4.5

   452          General merchandise stores.......................     +7.4    -2.3    +0.5    -1.3
   4521          Department stores (ex. L.D.)....................     +9.4    -9.6    +3.7    -9.1

   453          Miscellaneous stores retailers...................     +4.1    -2.7    +2.4    -4.5

   454          Nonstore retailers...............................     +3.6    -3.7    -9.0    -6.7

   722          Food services & drinking places..................     +9.5    +1.2    -3.1    -0.1

  (p) Preliminary estimate  (r) Revised estimate

  (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from not adjusted estimates provided in Table 1B of this report.

SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--MARCH 2009 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Timothy Winters (301) 763-2713.

---

Survey Description

The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey (MARTS) to provide an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the United States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 5,000 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). Firms responding to MARTS account for approximately 65% of the total national sales estimate. Advance sales estimates are computed using a link relative estimator. The change in sales from the previous month is estimated using only units that have reported data for both the current and previous month. There is no imputation or adjustment for nonrespondents in MARTS. The total sales estimate is derived by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous month (derived from the larger MRTS sample). Detailed industry estimates are summed to derive total estimates at broad industry levels. The monthly estimates are adjusted using annual survey estimates and for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences. Additional information on MARTS and MRTS can be found on the Census Bureau website at: http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html.

---

Reliability of Estimates

Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and nonsampling error. Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients of variation (CV), as given in Table 3 of this report, are estimated measures of sampling variation. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is 90-percent confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9 percent or ±1.5 percent, and the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.3 percent to +2.7 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the change is different from zero and therefore the change is not statistically significant. Estimated changes shown in the text are statistically significant unless otherwise noted. For a monthly total, the median estimated coefficient of variation is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ±1.65 x CV x (the estimated monthly total). The Census Bureau recommends that individuals using estimates in this report incorporate this information into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions drawn from the estimates. Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response, coverage, or processing. Although nonsampling error is not measured directly, the Census Bureau employs quality control procedures throughout the process to minimize this type of error.

---

(1) Estimated measures of sampling variability are based on estimates not adjusted for seasonal variation, or holiday, or trading-day differences. Medians are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months.

(2) These columns provide measures of the difference between the advance-to-preliminary and preliminary-to-final estimates of month-to-month change for the same pair of months as measured by the Advance sample and MRTS sample. The average and median differences are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months.

Note: Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html

---

Current Quarter Retail E-Commerce Sales

Source: Retail Indicators Branch, U.S. Census Bureau | Last Revised: April 14, 2009

Skip this navigation

Census Bureau Links:   Home · Search · Subjects A-Z · FAQs · Data Tools · Catalog · Census 2010 · Quality · Privacy Policy · Contact Us

Page Last Modified: April 14, 2009

출처 : http://www.census.gov/marts/www/marts_current.html

코스피에 대해 차익실현을 권장합니다.




미국 경지지표를 보면, 소매판매 Retail Sales 지표가 근래 2개월간 개선되는 듯 했으나,
결국 침체의 기술적인 일시적 둔화일 뿐, 3월 소매판매 지표는 다시 악화로 나타나고 있으며,
PPI는 하락하여 디플레이션 경향을 보이고 있고,

기업재고 Business Inventories는 개선 징후가 없습니다.

2009년 연초 1,100p 부근, 저점 1,000p 정도로 잡으면, 최근 코스피 지수는 최소 20~40% 선까지
2분기 초반에 먼저 올라섰기 때문에 일단 차익실현을 권장합니다.

조만간 새 글로 쓰고자 하나, 시장 심리나 시장 지표로도 현재 국면은 차익실현이 무난합니다.

Date		Actual	Forecast	Previous
Mon
13-Apr
Tue	Core Retail Sales m/m		0.10%	0.70%
14-Apr	PPI m/m		0.00%	0.10%
	Retail Sales m/m		0.30%	-0.10%
	Core PPI m/m		0.10%	0.20%
	Business Inventories m/m		-1.20%	-1.10%
	FOMC Member Evans Speaks
	Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
Wed	Core CPI m/m		0.10%	0.20%
15-Apr	CPI m/m		0.10%	0.40%
	Empire State Manufacturing Index		-35	-38.2
	TIC Long-Term Purchases		17.3B	-43.0B
	Capacity Utilization Rate		69.70%	70.20%
	Industrial Production m/m		-0.80%	-1.50%
	Crude Oil Inventories			1.7M
	NAHB Housing Market Index		10	9
	Beige Book
Thu	Building Permits		0.55M	0.56M
16-Apr
	Unemployment Claims		659K	654K
	Housing Starts		0.53M	0.58M
	Philly Fed Manufacturing Index		-31.8	-35
	Natural Gas Storage			20B
	FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks
	FOMC Member Yellen Speaks
Fri	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment		58.3	57.3
17-Apr
	Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations			2.00%
	Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

 
 
미국 도매재고, Wholesales Inventories 월간수치가(m/m) 2월 -1.5% 감소하였습니다.  미국 통계국(Census Bureau) 발표

Sales. The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that February 2009 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and
offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $319.7 billion, up 0.6 percent (+/-0.7%)*
from the revised January level and were down 14.3 percent (+/-1.6%) from the February 2008 level. The January preliminary estimate was revised
downward $0.7 billion or 0.2 percent. February sales of durable goods were up 2.0 percent (+/-1.4%) from last month, but were down 14.8 percent
(+/-2.1%) from a year ago. Compared to last month, sales of motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts and supplies were up 3.7 percent, while sales of
metals and minerals, except petroleum, were down 5.6 percent. Sales of nondurable goods were down 0.4 percent (+/-0.7%)* from last month and
were down 13.8 percent (+/-1.6%) from last year. Sales of chemicals and allied products were down 4.6 percent from last month.

Inventories. Total inventories of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations
but not for price changes, were $419.3 billion at the end of February, down 1.5 percent (+/-0.4%) from the revised January level, and were down 1.7
percent (+/-0.9%) from a year ago. The January preliminary estimate was revised upward $0.2 billion. End-of-month inventories of durable goods
were down 2.4 percent (+/-0.5%) from last month, but were up 0.7 percent (+/-1.1%)* from last February. Inventories of motor vehicle and motor
vehicle parts and supplies were down 7.9 percent from last month and inventories of furniture and home furnishings were down 3.0 percent. End-ofmonth
inventories of nondurable goods decreased 0.2 percent (+/-0.5%)* from January and were down 5.5 percent (+/-1.9%) compared to last
February. Inventories of farm product raw materials were down 5.4 percent from last month, and inventories of paper and paper products were down
4.8 percent.

Inventories/Sales Ratio. The February inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, based
on seasonally adjusted data, was 1.31. The February 2008 ratio was 1.14.
Data in this report are based on a sample and, therefore, are subject to sampling and nonsampling error. A discussion of the reliability of the estimates
and general survey methodology can be found at: <http://www.census.gov/wholesale/www/how_surveys_are_collected/011340.html>.

자료 : 첨부파일, 출처 : http://www.census.gov/wholesale/index.html

currentwhl_0904.pdf

미국 공장재주문, Factory Orders가 월간으로(m/m) 1.8% 상승하였습니다.
내구재주문에 이어 월간 소폭의 개선세가 진행되고 있기 때문에, 있는 그대로 받아들이면 되겠습니다.

HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE PRELIMINARY REPORT ON MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS

February 2009 --------------- Released 10:00 A.M. EDT April 2, 2009
(M3-2(09)-02)
Note: All figures in text are in seasonally adjusted current dollars
For Data - (301) 763-4673
For Questions - Chris Savage or Jessica Young
(301) 763-4832

---

Summary

New orders for manufactured goods in February, up following six consecutive monthly decreases, increased $6.1 billion or 1.8 percent to $352.2 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 3.5 percent January decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.6 percent. Shipments, down seven consecutive months, decreased $0.4 billion or 0.1 percent to $365.9 billion. This was the longest streak of consecutive monthly decreases since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 2.6 percent January decrease. Unfilled orders, down five consecutive months, decreased $10.7 billion or 1.4 percent to $773.2 billion. This was the longest streak of consecutive monthly decreases since September 2002-January 2003. This followed a 2.0 percent January decrease. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 5.98, down from 6.07 in January. Inventories, down six consecutive months, decreased $6.2 billion or 1.2 percent to $529.7 billion. This also was the longest streak of consecutive monthly decreases since March 2003-January 2004 and followed a 1.1 percent January decrease. The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.45, down from 1.46 in January.

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in February, up following six consecutive monthly decreases, increased $5.6 billion or 3.5 percent to $164.7 billion, revised from the previously published 3.4 percent increase. This followed a 7.8 percent January decrease.

New orders for manufactured nondurable goods increased $0.5 billion or 0.3 percent to $187.4 billion.

Shipments

Shipments of manufactured durable goods in February, down seven consecutive months, decreased $0.9 billion or 0.5 percent to $178.5 billion, unchanged from the previously published decrease. This also was the longest streak of consecutive monthly decreases since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 5.5 percent January decrease.

Shipments of manufactured nondurable goods, up two consecutive months, increased $0.5 billion or 0.3 percent to $187.4 billion. This followed a 0.5 percent January increase. This increase was due to chemical products, which increased $1.1 billion or 2.2 percent to $51.4 billion.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in February, down five consecutive months, decreased $10.7 billion or 1.4 percent to $773.2 billion, revised from the previously published 1.3 percent decrease. This followed a 2.0 percent January decrease.

Inventories

Inventories of manufactured durable goods in February, down two consecutive months, decreased $3.6 billion or 1.1 percent to $336.1 billion, revised from the previously published 0.9 percent decrease. This followed a 1.1 percent January decrease.

Inventories of manufactured nondurable goods, down six consecutive months, decreased $2.6 billion or 1.3 percent to $193.5 billion. This followed a 1.2 percent January decrease. Petroleum and coal, led the decrease, down $1.0 billion or 3.9 percent to $23.7 billion. This also was the sixth consecutive monthly decrease.

By stage of fabrication, February materials and supplies decreased 0.6 percent in durable goods and 1.7 percent in nondurable goods. Work in process decreased 1.1 percent in durable goods and 1.3 percent in nondurable goods. Finished goods decreased 1.6 percent in durable goods and 1.0 percent in nondurable goods.

출처 : http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/

 
다음은 미국 경제지표 주간 발표일정입니다. (미국 경기지표, 4월, 09.04.06~04.10)
소비자신용, 도매재고,무역수지,실업청구,수입물가 등

Date	Apr 6 - Apr 10	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Mon
06-Apr
Tue	IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism		45.1	45.3
07-Apr	Consumer Credit m/m		-2.7B	1.8B
Wed	Wholesale Inventories m/m		-0.60%	-0.90%
08-Apr
	Crude Oil Inventories			2.8M
Thu	Trade Balance		-36.7B	-36.0B
09-Apr	Unemployment Claims		659K	669K
	Import Prices m/m		0.90%	-0.20%
	Natural Gas Storage			0B
Fri	Federal Budget Balance		-148.3B	-192.8B
10-Apr

이번주에는 특별한 경제지표 일정은 없다고 보입니다.