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'미국경기'에 해당되는 글 70건




  1. 2009.03.15 미국 경제지표 주간 발표 일정 _09.03.16~03.20
  2. 2009.03.13 미국 Business Inventories/Sales Ratio _ 기업재고/매출 비율 _2009.03
  3. 2009.03.13 미국 핵심 소매판매 지표 2개월 연속 소폭 개선 _Core Retail Sales _09.03.12
  4. 2009.03.08 코스피 Sunvening Brief _장기관망세로 전환 _09.03.09~03.13
  5. 2009.03.07 미국 지역별 실업률 지도 _일부지역 실업률 24% 이미 상회
  6. 2009.03.07 미국증시 주간전망 _ 장기침체 전망, 하락형 L자 _09.03.09~03.13
  7. 2009.03.07 미국 실업률 변화 _1948.01~2009.03 _US Unemployment Rate
  8. 2009.03.07 미국 실업률 변화 _2000.01~2009.03 _US Unemployment Rate
 
다음은 미국 경제지표 주간 발표 일정입니다. (03.16~03.20)
Mar 15 - Mar 21
Date   Actual Forecast Previous
Sun OPEC Meetings      
15-Mar Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks      
Mon Empire State Manufacturing Index   -31.5 -34.7
16-Mar TIC Long-Term Purchases   44.3B 34.8B
  Capacity Utilization Rate   71.10% 72.00%
  Industrial Production m/m   -1.20% -1.80%
  NAHB Housing Market Index   9 9
Tue Building Permits   0.51M
0.53M
17-Mar
  PPI m/m   0.30% 0.80%
  Core PPI m/m   0.10% 0.40%
  Housing Starts   0.45M 0.47M
Wed Core CPI m/m   0.10% 0.20%
18-Mar CPI m/m   0.30% 0.30%
  Current Account   -137B -174B
  Crude Oil Inventories     0.7M
  FOMC Statement      
  Federal Funds Rate   <0.25% <0.25%
Thu Unemployment Claims   649K 654K
19-Mar Philly Fed Manufacturing Index   -39.1 -41.3
  CB Leading Index m/m   -0.60% 0.40%
  FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks      
  Natural Gas Storage     -112B
Fri Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks      
20-Mar
(출처: forexfactory.com)





맞춤검색

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다음은 US Business Inventories/Sales Ratio : 2000~2009,  미국 기업재고/매출 비율 입니다. (2009년 3월 12일 발표, 현지)



Census Bureau

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

THURSDAY, MARCH 12, 2009, AT 10:00 A.M. EDT


Timothy Winters (Retail): (301) 763-2713                                                                                                                            CB09-35
John Miller (Wholesale): (301) 763-2703
Chris Savage (Manufacturing): (301) 763-4832

MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES AND SALES
January 2009

INTENTION TO REVISE: Revisions to the Wholesale and Retail adjusted and not adjusted monthly estimates for sales and inventories are scheduled for release in March 2009 and April 2009, respectively. Estimates will be revised to reflect the results of the 2007 Annual Wholesale and Annual Retail Trade Surveys. Manufacturing estimates will be revised at a later date. Revisions to the Wholesale data will be reflected in the February 2009 Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales (MTIS) release scheduled for April 14, 2009. Revisions to the Retail data will be reflected in the March 2009 MTIS release scheduled for May 13, 2009.

Sales. The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for January, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,004.0 billion, down 1.0 percent (±0.4%) from December 2008 and down 14.0 percent (±0.4%) from January 2008.

Inventories. Manufacturers’ and trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1,440.1 billion, down 1.1 percent (±0.1%) from December 2008 and down 1.5 percent (±0.3%) from January 2008.

Inventories/Sales Ratio. The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of January was 1.43. The January 2008 ratio was 1.25.


The Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales Report for February is scheduled to be released April 14, 2009 at 10:00 a.m. EDT.

For information, visit the Census Bureau’s Web site at <http://www.census.gov/bussales>. This report is also available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce’s STAT-USA (202-482-1986).

* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero.

 

Table 1. Estimated Monthly Sales and Inventories for Manufacturers, Retailers, and Merchant Wholesalers
(In millions of dollars)

See footnotes and notes at the end of Table 3.

(p) Preliminary estimate.
(r) Revised estimate.

 

Table 2. Percent Changes for Sales and Inventories--Manufacturers, Retailers, and Merchant Wholesalers

 

 


Table 3. Estimated Monthly Retail Sales, Inventories, and Inventories/Sales Ratios, By Kind of Business
(In millions of dollars)

(p) Preliminary estimate.
(r) Revised estimate.

1 Inventories are on a non-LIFO basis as of the end of the month.
2 Adjusted for seasonal variations and, in the case of sales, for trading-day differences and holiday variations. Concurrent seasonal adjustment is being used to adjust all sales, shipment, and inventory estimates. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12-ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are applied to the current and previous month estimates and for retail and wholesale estimates a year ago as well. For retail sales, concurrent seasonal adjustment is also used to adjust the advance estimates (published one month before the preliminary estimates) and the estimates one year before the advance month. This explains the revision to retail estimates from a year ago.
3 Manufacturers sales refer to the value of shipments by manufacturers. The shipments data from individual manufacturers are adjusted prior to tabulation for the number of trading days as well as for any variations in the length of the reporting period.
4 The 2002 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) defines merchant wholesalers as including manufacturers' sales branches and offices. However, the estimates included in this release exclude manufacturers' sales branches and offices. Note that this is not a change in coverage from prior releases and is consistent with the description used in the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey data products.

Note: U.S. and group totals include kinds of business not shown. The Manufacturing and Trade Inventory and Sales estimates are based on data from three surveys: the Monthly Retail Trade Survey, the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey, and the Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey. The sampling variability for retailers and merchant wholesalers can be used to construct a 90 percent confidence interval for the estimates. Over all possible samples, 90 percent of such intervals will cover the true estimate. These intervals are given in parentheses for the estimates on the front page. If, for example, the estimate is up 0.8 percent and the margin of sampling error is ±1.2 percent, the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.4 percent to +2.0 percent. If the range contains 0, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. Measures of reliability for Retail and Wholesale sales and inventory levels and changes are included in the detailed monthly press releases for those Industries. Manufacturers do not contribute to estimates of sampling variability because the manufacturer’s mail panel is not a probability sample from a known frame and standard errors of the industry estimates cannot be calculated. Estimates from all three surveys are also subject to nonsampling errors, which can arise in any stage of the survey. Such errors include coverage error (failure to accurately represent all population units in the sample), response errors, coding errors, and nonresponse. Although no direct measurement of these errors has been obtained, precautionary steps were taken in all phases of the collection, processing, and tabulation of the data to minimize their influence.

Horizontal Rule
Source: Retail Indicators Branch, U.S. Census Bureau | Last Revised: March 12, 2009


출처 : http://www.census.gov/mtis/www/mtis_current.html


맞춤검색

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미국 핵심 소매판매 지표가 2개월 연속 소폭으로 개선되며, 소비경기의 계속되는 침체 우려감을 다소 떨쳐버릴 수 있게 하였습니다. (Core Retail Sales)
그러나 본질적인 경기개선 흐름이 내면적으로 안일어나고 있다면, 소폭의 일시적 흐름에 불과할 수도 있어서, 당분간 계속 관찰이 필요할 것입니다.



미국 증시는, Retail Sales 지표에 고무되어, 극적으로 7,000p를 재회복하였습니다.


맞춤검색

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단기 지수 흐름에 연연하지 않고, 충분한 시간 경과 후에 되돌아보는 장기관망세로 전환합니다.
경기가 추가로 침체하거나 장기침체로 가려는 징후를 보이고 있으며, 침체에서 돌아선다고 하더라도 충분한 전환 기간이 필요하기 때문입니다. 경기침체가 확장되면, 지수는 더 큰 폭으로 추가하락할 가능성이 높아집니다.


KOSPI  Sunvening Brief _09.03.09~03.13 _ASSETGUIDE
 경기침체 장기화 전망 _ 하락형 L자 계속 진행 가능성 커져 
 미국경기 및 세계경제 회복 조짐 없고, 물가 압박 흐름 재고조


저번주에 990p로 1,000p를 일시 붕괴시킨코스피는, 기존 추세의 저점 채널에 대한 기술적 반등세와 미국증시의 일시적인
반등 기대감, 중국의 경기부양에 대한 모멘텀을 활용하여, 1,070p대까지 진출한 모습입니다.

그러나 당초 기대와는 달리 경기회복이 지연됨은 물론, 회복을 차츰 기대하는 시기에 오히려 추가적인 경기악화가 나타나고 있고,
당분간 개선될 조짐도 나타나지 않고 있어서, 이런 흐름은 기술적 반등세 외에는 큰 의미가 떨어진다고 볼 수 있습니다.

저점채널에서 지지 전환하는 듯한 흐름은 이미 1,800p대부터 간헐적으로 중간마다
나타나는 흐름으로 경기가 개선되지 않고 조짐도 없는 가운데, 그 신뢰성은 매우 낮습니다.

참고로, 2009년 3월 한은 금통위 금리결정은, 현재 2% 수준에서 단기 동결 될 것으로
당사이트는 전망하고 있습니다.
(자세한 전망 배경은 금리전망 관련 글에서 확인해 주시기 바랍니다.)


1,000p 부근 지지하고 있으나, 세계경기침체 장기추세화 가능성으로, 붕괴된 이후 장기화될 가능성 커져

1,000p 부근은 지지하고 있으나, 미국경기 및 세계경기 개선에 대한 기대가 저물고, 지지 신뢰성이 낮아졌습니다. 
 
미국 경기는 실업률 등에서 보는 바와 같이 추가로 악화하는 국면을 보여주고 있어서,
경기가 일반 경기순환 사이클을 타지않고, 1948년 전후 최대, 최장의 경기침체로 갈 가능성이 커졌습니다. (미국증시 주간 브리프 참조)

따라서, 미국증시도 추세적으로 추가 하락할 가능성이 크며, 그 기간도 일반적 기대보다 상당히 오래 지속될 가능성이 커보입니다.

주가 및 주가할인율(프리미엄)은 경기 및 기업의 현금흐름, 현금창출력과 연동되기 때문에,
경기가 안좋으면 주가가 싸지는 것은 당연하고 자연스런 현상입니다.

이런 가운데, 신용이나 대출까지 동원하여 주식투자하는 행위는 자제해야 할 때입니다.


30분봉 갭 부분 메꾸고 기술적 반등했으나, 1,070p대 회복하지 못해

30분 채널 재하락 중이나 지지 못하면 재 반락
30분 추세를 보면, 990p 대에서 기술적 반등을 출발한 이후에, 1,010p 부근이 지지되며 1,050p 부근까지
진행, 지지가 되며, 재차 1,075p 부근까지 진행한 모습입니다.

그러나 여기서 저항을 확인하고 재차 밀리는 흐름으로 전환되어서,
다음주 단기 흐름은 위아래도 변동의 가능성은 있겠지만, 주말까지의 흐름은, 990p --> 1,070p까지 진행된 이후 밀리는 흐름을 보여주고 있습니다.

경기가 개선이 안되고 있고, 추가침체 장기화 양상을 보이고 있어서, 주식 비중을 제한적으로 재조정하고, 
주식시장을 멀리하고 관망한 채 단기 지수 흐름에 상관없이, 충분한 시간 경과 후에 다시 검토해 보는 전략과 스탠스로 변경합니다.

주식시장을 멀리하고 관망하는 기간은 최소 향후 1분기에서, 길게 가면 2년 이상이 될 수도 있을 것으로 현재 전망되고 있습니다.



맞춤검색

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다음은 뉴욕타임즈가 Bureau of Labor Statistics 자료를 가공하여 작성 제공한,
미국 지역별 실업률 지도 (Unemployment Map) 입니다.

2008년 12월 실업률 7.1% 기준으로 작성되었으며, 2009년 3월 6일에 발표된, 2009년 2월 기준 미국전역 실업률은 8.1% 입니다.

그림을 클릭하면 잘 나옵니다.
순서별로,  1) 미국 전역 지역별 실업률(2008년 12월, 7.1% 실업률기준),  2) 미국 전역 지역별 연간 실업 증감율,
               3) 주요 공업지구의 연간 실업 증감율 입니다.

일부 지역의 실업률은 이미 24%를 상회하고 있으며, 서부와 동부 및 내륙 주요 공업지구, 도시지구를 중심으로 연간 실업률이 빠르게 악화하고 있습니다.






맞춤검색

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경기개선 선기대감이 무력화되며, 주요 지표나 흐름은 추가적이고 장기적인 경기침체를 시사하고 있기 때문에,
미국증시의 경우에도 절대수치나 단기적인 기술적 반등 여부와 상관없이, 장기간의 추가적인 L자형 침체가 계속될 것으로 현재 전망되고 있습니다. 
그림을 클릭하면 잘 나옵니다.





ASSETGUIDE  US Market Weekly Morning Brief _09.03.09~03.13

다우존스 침체 및 추가하락 장기화 전망 _ 회복기대 저물고, 장기침체형 L자 국면 가능성 높아

경기개선 선기대감 무산 + 경기 지속적 추가 악화 + 경기부양안 기대치 충족 부족
기존 7,400p대 저점권에서 약 1,000p 추가하락하여 6,400p대까지 하락
==> 하락추세에서도 기술적 반등이 동반될 수 있겠지만, 경기가 계속 침체하고 있고, 호전세 신호가 안나타나고 있기 때문에, 추세적 반등 기대는 이른 시점

완만한 U자형 -->  하락형 L자형으로 기대 전이, 장기침체 가능성


<완만한 U자형 기존의 완만한 U자형 회복 기대 _ 일정 시점에서 추세저지 기대>

 2007년 12월부터 진행된 경기침체가 통상적인 경기침체 사이클상 
약 1년~1년 6개월 전후 사이에서 바닥을 찍고 돌아설 것으로 기대 
(전미경제조사국, NBER 발표 및 전후 미국경기사이클, Business Cycle 추이)

경기부양안, 대규모 재정/사회/SOC 정책이 아주 과감한 폭과 속도로 붕괴되고 자율적 전환 가능성이 당분간 없는 경기사이클 전환을 위해 집행될 것으로 기대

 미국의 금융위기가 일부섹터나 혹은 일시적인 제한적 시기의 변수로,  그 규모나 시간적 영향력은 제한적일 것으로 판단 

 민간 경기사이클의 자율적 회복국면 전환에 대한 소폭의 기대


<하락형 L자형, 현실 _ 하락형 L자형 지속 _ 회복기미 없이 추가 악화 지속>

경기침체가 2008년 하반기부터 본격적으로 악화되고 있고, 2009년 1분기에 추가 악화하고 있어서, 경기가 돌아서는 것이 아니라,  추가로 악화하고 있음

경기부양안의 폭과 속도가 기대에 못미치고 있으며, 경기침체에 대한 대응의 강도가 안이한 모습을 보이고 있음

현상적으로는 미국 금융위기로 가속화된 경기침체가 세계 경제사이클의 본격적인 침체로 이미 전이되었고, 세계 수출입경제의 침체, 내수 경기 침체로
이어져서, 이미 지표들로 나타나고 있음 
(즉, 실물부분으로 침투되었기 때문에, 자체 실물사이클에 따르더라도 빠른 전환 기대가 힘들어졌음)

통상적인 경기사이클 전환의 기대가 난망한 시점에, Spark를 줄 수 있는 경기부양에 대한 기대감이 저물고 있음

일시적 경기침체가 아니라, 1980년 이후 신자유주의와 미국식 금융모델의 전성기가 마감하고 조정 국면에 들어갔다는 인상을 주며, 장기화 전망
(이 점은 새 글로 논하고자 합니다.)

이에 반하여, 시장 심리의 모멘텀 흐름상, 하반기 이후 안정화되어 있던 물가지표가 다시 꿈틀거려서, 이중고(苦)를 불러올 가능성이 높아지고 있음


03.03~03.06 저번주 주요경기 지표 _ 주택건설 침체, 고용침체, 실업률 8.1%, 25년래 사상 최대

저번주 경기지표를 보면, 개인지출, 개인소득은 소폭 늘었지만 기술적 반등에 가깝고, 건설지출과 주택판매는 계속 악화하고 있으며,
비농업고용인수는 대폭적으로 줄어들고 있고, 실업률은 8.1%로 25년래 사상 최대에 이르는 등, 경기가 개선되거나 저점을 잡는 것이 아니라,
추가로 악화하는 모습을 보이고 있습니다.

더욱이 이제부터 개선된다는 보장도 없고, 추가로 더 악화되지 않는다는 보장도 없습니다.

2009년 2번째로 발표된, FRB 3월 베이지북에서는 미국 주요 주(state)에서 경기침체가 추가로 진행되고 있다는 점을 밝히고 있습니다.


03.09~03.13 경기지표 발표일정 _ 소매판매, 기업재고, 수입물가, 소비자 심리 지표 등 발표

소비침체 --> 소매판매 침체 --> 기업생산 부진 --> 재고조정 흐름이 계속되고 있기 때문에,

다음주 발표되는 소매판매, 기업재고 지표도 충격을 줄 가능성이 크다고 보입니다.

또한, 안정화되있던 물가가 시기적인 시장심리적 모멘텀으로 움직이려는 조짐을 보이고 있기 때문에,

물가지표도 이중고를 줄 가능성이 크다고 보이며, 소비자심리는 여전히 위축된 흐름을 보일 것으로 전망됩니다.

이러한 흐름에 따라 하락형 L자에서도 기술적 반등이 동반되더라도 신뢰성이 낮으며,  본질적으로 경기가 확연하게 개선되거나 돌아서는 조짐이 나타나기
전에는 큰 기대는 무리라고 보입니다.

또한, 원/달러환율이 상당히 높은 수준에서, 내국인이 미국에 환전을 통해서 미국주식시장에 직접투자하는 것은 현재 시점에 적절하지 않아보이는데, 이유는
  _ 1) 환전 비용과 환차손이 따르게 되며,
     2) 미국증시가 호전되면, 원달러 환율도 하락할 것으로 보여, 원화로 환산했을시 이익이 상쇄되어, 매매비용만 남는다는 점,
    3) 미국증시가 당분간 크게 호전될 것으로 보이지 않느다는 점 등입니다.

따라서 내국인이 환전을 통해 미국증시에 직접 투자하는 것은 현재 시점에서 자제하는 것이 좋아보입니다.



맞춤검색

,
다음은 미국실업률 변화입니다. (기간 : 1948.01 ~2009.03)   

Series Id:           LNS14000000
Seasonal Adjusted
Series title:        (Seas) Unemployment Rate
Labor force status:  Unemployment rate
Type of data:        Percent
Age:                 16 years and over



Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
1948 3.4 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.8 4.0  
1949 4.3 4.7 5.0 5.3 6.1 6.2 6.7 6.8 6.6 7.9 6.4 6.6  
1950 6.5 6.4 6.3 5.8 5.5 5.4 5.0 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.3  
1951 3.7 3.4 3.4 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.1  
1952 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.7  
1953 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.5 4.5  
1954 4.9 5.2 5.7 5.9 5.9 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.1 5.7 5.3 5.0  
1955 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.3 4.2 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.2  
1956 4.0 3.9 4.2 4.0 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.1 3.9 3.9 4.3 4.2  
1957 4.2 3.9 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.4 4.5 5.1 5.2  
1958 5.8 6.4 6.7 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.5 7.4 7.1 6.7 6.2 6.2  
1959 6.0 5.9 5.6 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.3  
1960 5.2 4.8 5.4 5.2 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.5 6.1 6.1 6.6  
1961 6.6 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.1 6.9 7.0 6.6 6.7 6.5 6.1 6.0  
1962 5.8 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.7 5.5  
1963 5.7 5.9 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.7 5.5  
1964 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.1 5.2 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.1 4.8 5.0  
1965 4.9 5.1 4.7 4.8 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0  
1966 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.8  
1967 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.8  
1968 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4  
1969 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.5  
1970 3.9 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.9 6.1  
1971 5.9 5.9 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.0 5.8 6.0 6.0  
1972 5.8 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.3 5.2  
1973 4.9 5.0 4.9 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.6 4.8 4.9  
1974 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.9 6.0 6.6 7.2  
1975 8.1 8.1 8.6 8.8 9.0 8.8 8.6 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.3 8.2  
1976 7.9 7.7 7.6 7.7 7.4 7.6 7.8 7.8 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.8  
1977 7.5 7.6 7.4 7.2 7.0 7.2 6.9 7.0 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.4  
1978 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.1 6.0 5.9 6.2 5.9 6.0 5.8 5.9 6.0  
1979 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.6 5.7 5.7 6.0 5.9 6.0 5.9 6.0  
1980 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.9 7.5 7.6 7.8 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.2  
1981 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.2 7.5 7.5 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.9 8.3 8.5  
1982 8.6 8.9 9.0 9.3 9.4 9.6 9.8 9.8 10.1 10.4 10.8 10.8  
1983 10.4 10.4 10.3 10.2 10.1 10.1 9.4 9.5 9.2 8.8 8.5 8.3  
1984 8.0 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.4 7.2 7.5 7.5 7.3 7.4 7.2 7.3  
1985 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.2 7.4 7.4 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 7.0  
1986 6.7 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.6  
1987 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.0 5.9 6.0 5.8 5.7  
1988 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.4 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3  
1989 5.4 5.2 5.0 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4  
1990 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.9 5.9 6.2 6.3  
1991 6.4 6.6 6.8 6.7 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.3  
1992 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.6 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.3 7.4 7.4  
1993 7.3 7.1 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.5  
1994 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.6 5.5  
1995 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.6  
1996 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.3 5.5 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.4 5.4  
1997 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1 4.9 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.7  
1998 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.4  
1999 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0  
2000 4.0 4.1 4.0 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9  
2001 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.9 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.7  
2002 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 6.0  
2003 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.8 5.7  
2004 5.7 5.6 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.4  
2005 5.2 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.8  
2006 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4  
2007 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.9  
2008 4.9 4.8 5.1 5.0 5.5 5.6 5.8 6.2 6.2 6.6 6.8 7.2  
2009 7.6 8.1                      

출처 : US  Bureau of Labor Statistics



맞춤검색

,

다음은 미국 실업률 변화입니다. (기간 : 2000.01~2009.03)    



Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey


Series Id:           lns14000000
Seasonal Adjusted
Series title:        (Seas) Unemployment Rate
Labor force status:  Unemployment rate
Type of data:        Percent
Age:                 16 years and over
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
1999 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0  
2000 4.0 4.1 4.0 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9  
2001 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.9 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.7  
2002 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 6.0  
2003 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.8 5.7  
2004 5.7 5.6 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.4  
2005 5.2 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.8  
2006 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4  
2007 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.9  
2008 4.9 4.8 5.1 5.0 5.5 5.6 5.8 6.2 6.2 6.6 6.8 7.2  
2009 7.6 8.1                      

출처 : U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?request_action=wh&graph_name=LN_cpsbref3

Employment Situation Summary

Technical information:
  Household data:      (202) 691-6378     USDL 09-0224
              http://www.bls.gov/cps/

  Establishment data:  (202) 691-6555     Transmission of material in this release
              http://www.bls.gov/ces/     is embargoed until 8:30 A.M. (EST),
Media contact:         (202) 691-5902     Friday, March 6, 2009.
                                   
                                   
                   THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION:  FEBRUARY 2009

   Nonfarm payroll employment continued to fall sharply in February (-651,000), 
and the unemployment rate rose from 7.6 to 8.1 percent, the Bureau of Labor 
Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today.  Payroll employ-
ment has declined by 2.6 million in the past 4 months.  In February, job 
losses were large and widespread across nearly all major industry sectors.

Unemployment (Household Survey Data)

   The number of unemployed persons increased by 851,000 to 12.5 million in 
February, and the unemployment rate rose to 8.1 percent.  Over the past 12 
months, the number of unemployed persons has increased by about 5.0 million, 
and the unemployment rate has risen by 3.3 percentage points.  (See table 
A-1.)

   The unemployment rate continued to trend upward in February for adult 
men (8.1 percent), adult women (6.7 percent), whites (7.3 percent), blacks 
(13.4 percent), and Hispanics (10.9 percent).  The jobless rate for teen-
agers was little changed at 21.6 percent.  The unemployment rate for Asians 
was 6.9 percent in February, not seasonally adjusted.  (See tables A-1, A-2, 
and A-3.)

   Among the unemployed, the number of job losers and persons who completed 
temporary jobs increased by 716,000 to 7.7 million in February.  This mea-
sure has grown by 3.8 million in the last 12 months.  (See table A-8.)

   The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) 
increased by 270,000 to 2.9 million in February.  Over the past 12 months, 
the number of long-term unemployed was up by 1.6 million.  (See table A-9.)


                               - 2 -

Table A.  Major indicators of labor market activity, seasonally adjusted        
(Numbers in thousands)                                                          
_______________________________________________________________________________ 
                         |                 |                          |         
                         |    Quarterly    |                          |         
                         |     averages    |       Monthly data       |  Jan.-  
        Category         |_________________|__________________________|  Feb.   
                         |        |        |        |        |        | change  
                         |  III   |   IV   |  Dec.  |  Jan.  |  Feb.  |         
                         |  2008  |  2008  |  2008  |  2009  |  2009  |         
_________________________|________|________|________|________|________|________ 
                         |                                                      
     HOUSEHOLD DATA      |                 Labor force status                   
                         |_____________________________________________________ 
                         |        |        |        |        |        |         
Civilian labor force ....| 154,650| 154,648| 154,447| 153,716| 154,214|     498 
  Employment ............| 145,299| 144,046| 143,338| 142,099| 141,748|    -351 
  Unemployment ..........|   9,350|  10,602|  11,108|  11,616|  12,467|     851 
Not in labor force ......|  79,460|  80,177|  80,588|  81,023|  80,699|    -324 
                         |________|________|________|________|________|________ 
                         |                                                      
                         |                 Unemployment rates                   
                         |_____________________________________________________ 
                         |        |        |        |        |        |         
All workers .............|     6.0|     6.9|     7.2|     7.6|     8.1|     0.5 
  Adult men .............|     5.8|     6.8|     7.2|     7.6|     8.1|      .5 
  Adult women ...........|     5.0|     5.6|     5.9|     6.2|     6.7|      .5 
  Teenagers .............|    19.7|    20.7|    20.8|    20.8|    21.6|      .8 
  White .................|     5.4|     6.3|     6.6|     6.9|     7.3|      .4 
  Black or African       |        |        |        |        |        |         
    American ............|    10.7|    11.5|    11.9|    12.6|    13.4|      .8 
  Hispanic or Latino     |        |        |        |        |        |         
    ethnicity ...........|     7.8|     8.9|     9.2|     9.7|    10.9|     1.2 
                         |________|________|________|________|________|________ 
                         |                                                      
  ESTABLISHMENT DATA     |                     Employment                       
                         |_____________________________________________________ 
                         |        |        |        |        |        |         
Nonfarm employment.......| 137,004| 135,727| 135,074|p134,419|p133,768|   p-651 
  Goods-producing (1)....|  21,343|  20,803|  20,532| p20,153| p19,877|   p-276 
    Construction ........|   7,170|   6,949|   6,841|  p6,723|  p6,619|   p-104 
    Manufacturing .......|  13,388|  13,062|  12,902| p12,645| p12,477|   p-168 
  Service-providing (1)..| 115,661| 114,924| 114,542|p114,266|p113,891|   p-375 
      Retail trade (2)...|  15,331|  15,127|  15,038| p14,999| p14,960|    p-40 
    Professional and     |        |        |        |        |        |         
      business services .|  17,730|  17,485|  17,356| p17,222| p17,042|   p-180 
    Education and health |        |        |        |        |        |         
      services ..........|  18,932|  19,035|  19,080| p19,123| p19,149|     p26 
    Leisure and          |        |        |        |        |        |         
      hospitality .......|  13,452|  13,348|  13,304| p13,275| p13,242|    p-33 
    Government ..........|  22,543|  22,538|  22,532| p22,563| p22,572|      p9 
                         |________|________|________|________|________|________ 
                         |                                                      
                         |                  Hours of work (3)                   
                         |_____________________________________________________ 
                         |        |        |        |        |        |         
Total private ...........|    33.6|    33.4|    33.3|   p33.3|   p33.3|    p0.0 
  Manufacturing .........|    40.8|    40.2|    39.9|   p39.8|   p39.6|    p-.2 
    Overtime ............|     3.6|     3.2|     2.9|    p2.8|    p2.6|    p-.2 
                         |________|________|________|________|________|________ 
                         |                                                      
                         |   Indexes of aggregate weekly hours (2002=100)(3)    
                         |_____________________________________________________ 
                         |        |        |        |        |        |         
Total private ...........|   106.1|   104.1|   103.2|  p102.6|  p101.9|   p-0.7 
                         |________|________|________|________|________|________ 
                         |                                                      
                         |                     Earnings (3)                     
                         |_____________________________________________________ 
Average hourly earnings, |        |        |        |        |        |         
  total private .........|  $18.16|  $18.34|  $18.40| p$18.44| p$18.47|  p$0.03 
Average weekly earnings, |        |        |        |        |        |         
  total private .........|  610.90|  612.55|  612.72| p614.05| p615.05|   p1.00 
_________________________|________|________|________|________|________|________ 
                                                                                
   1 Includes other industries, not shown separately.                           
   2 Quarterly averages and the over-the-month change are calculated using      
unrounded data.                                                                 
   3 Data relate to private production and nonsupervisory workers.              
   p = preliminary.                                                             



                               - 3 -

Total Employment and the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)

   The civilian labor force participation rate was about unchanged at 65.6 per-
cent.  The employment-population ratio, at 60.3 percent in February, continued 
to trend down.  The ratio has declined by 2.4 percentage points over the year.  
(See table A-1.)

   In February, the number of persons who worked part time for economic rea-
sons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) rose by 787,000, 
reaching 8.6 million.  The number of such workers rose by 3.7 million over 
the past 12 months.  This category includes persons who would like to work 
full time but were working part time because their hours had been cut back 
or because they were unable to find full-time jobs.  (See table A-5.)

Persons Not in the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)

   About 2.1 million persons (not seasonally adjusted) were marginally at-
tached to the labor force in February, 466,000 more than a year earlier.  
These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a 
job sometime in the prior 12 months.  They were not counted as unemployed 
because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.  
Among the marginally attached, there were 731,000 discouraged workers in 
February, up by 335,000 from a year earlier.  Discouraged workers are per-
sons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are avail-
able for them.  The other 1.3 million persons marginally attached to the 
labor force in February had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding 
the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.  
(See table A-13.)

Industry Payroll Employment (Establishment Survey Data)

   Total nonfarm payroll employment dropped by 651,000 in February.  Since 
the recession began in December 2007, about 4.4 million jobs have been lost, 
with more than half (2.6 million) of the decrease occurring in the last 4 
months.  In February, employment declined in most major industry sectors, 
with the largest losses occurring in professional and business services, 
manufacturing, and construction.  Health care continued to add jobs over 
the month.  (See table B-1.)
   
   Employment in professional and business services fell by 180,000 in
February.  The temporary help industry lost 78,000 jobs over the month.  
Since December 2007, temporary help employment has declined by 686,000, 
or 27 percent.  In February, job declines also occurred in services to 
buildings and dwellings (-17,000), architectural and engineering ser-
vices (-16,000), and business support services (-12,000).

   Widespread job losses continued in manufacturing in February (-168,000).  
The majority of the decline occurred in durable goods industries (-132,000), 
with the largest decreases in fabricated metal products (-28,000) and ma-
chinery (-25,000).  Employment in nondurable goods manufacturing declined 
by 36,000 over the month.

   The construction industry lost 104,000 jobs in February.  Employment 
in the industry has fallen by 1.1 million since peaking in January 2007.  
Two-fifths of that decline occurred over the last 4 months.  Employment 
fell sharply in both the residential and nonresidential components of 
the industry in February.

   Employment in truck transportation declined by 33,000 in February; 
the industry has lost 138,000 jobs since the start of the recession 
in December 2007.  Nearly two-thirds of the decline (-88,000) occurred
over the last 4 months.  The information industry continued to lose
jobs (-15,000).  Over the last 4 months, employment in the industry
has decreased by 76,000, with about two-fifths of the decline occur-
ring in publishing.


                               - 4 -

   Employment in financial activities continued to decline in February
(-44,000).  The number of jobs in this industry has dropped by 448,000
since an employment peak in December 2006, with half of this loss oc-
curring in the past 6 months.  In February, job losses occurred in real 
estate (-11,000); credit intermediation (-11,000); and securities, com-
modity contracts, and investments (-8,000).

   Retail trade employment fell by 40,000 over the month and has declined 
by 608,000 since December 2007.  In February, employment decreased in auto-
mobile dealerships (-9,000), sporting goods (-9,000), furniture and home 
furnishing stores (-8,000), and building material and garden supply stores 
(-7,000).  Employment in wholesale trade fell by 37,000 over the month, 
with nearly all of the decline occurring in durable goods.

   Employment in leisure and hospitality continued to trend down over the 
month (-33,000), with about half of the decrease in the accommodation in-
dustry (-18,000).

   Health care continued to add jobs in February, with a gain of 27,000.  
Job growth occurred in ambulatory health care (16,000) and in hospitals 
(7,000).

   The change in total nonfarm employment for December was revised
from -577,000 to -681,000 and the change for January was revised from
-598,000 to -655,000.  Monthly revisions result from additional sample
reports and the monthly recalculation of seasonal factors.

Weekly Hours (Establishment Survey Data)

   In February, the average workweek for production and nonsupervisory
workers on private nonfarm payrolls was 33.3 hours for the third month
in a row.  Both the manufacturing workweek and factory overtime de-
creased by 0.2 hour over the month to 39.6 and 2.6 hours, respectively.  
(See table B-2.)
   
   The index of aggregate weekly hours of production and nonsupervisory 
workers on private nonfarm payrolls fell by 0.7 percent in February.  
The manufacturing index declined by 2.0 percent over the month.  (See 
table B-5.)

Hourly and Weekly Earnings (Establishment Survey Data)

   In February, average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory 
workers on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 3 cents, or 0.2 percent, sea-
sonally adjusted.  Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings in-
creased by 3.6 percent, and average weekly earnings rose by 2.1 percent.  
(See table B-3.)

                    ______________________________


   The Employment Situation for March 2009 is scheduled to be released
on Friday, April 3, at 8:30 A.M. (EDT).

출처 : U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm




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