HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE PRELIMINARY REPORT ON MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS

February 2009 --------------- Released 10:00 A.M. EDT April 2, 2009
(M3-2(09)-02)
Note: All figures in text are in seasonally adjusted current dollars
For Data - (301) 763-4673
For Questions - Chris Savage or Jessica Young
(301) 763-4832

Summary

New orders for manufactured goods in February, up following six consecutive monthly decreases, increased $6.1 billion or 1.8 percent to $352.2 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 3.5 percent January decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.6 percent. Shipments, down seven consecutive months, decreased $0.4 billion or 0.1 percent to $365.9 billion. This was the longest streak of consecutive monthly decreases since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 2.6 percent January decrease. Unfilled orders, down five consecutive months, decreased $10.7 billion or 1.4 percent to $773.2 billion. This was the longest streak of consecutive monthly decreases since September 2002-January 2003. This followed a 2.0 percent January decrease. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 5.98, down from 6.07 in January. Inventories, down six consecutive months, decreased $6.2 billion or 1.2 percent to $529.7 billion. This also was the longest streak of consecutive monthly decreases since March 2003-January 2004 and followed a 1.1 percent January decrease. The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.45, down from 1.46 in January.

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in February, up following six consecutive monthly decreases, increased $5.6 billion or 3.5 percent to $164.7 billion, revised from the previously published 3.4 percent increase. This followed a 7.8 percent January decrease.

New orders for manufactured nondurable goods increased $0.5 billion or 0.3 percent to $187.4 billion.

Shipments

Shipments of manufactured durable goods in February, down seven consecutive months, decreased $0.9 billion or 0.5 percent to $178.5 billion, unchanged from the previously published decrease. This also was the longest streak of consecutive monthly decreases since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 5.5 percent January decrease.

Shipments of manufactured nondurable goods, up two consecutive months, increased $0.5 billion or 0.3 percent to $187.4 billion. This followed a 0.5 percent January increase. This increase was due to chemical products, which increased $1.1 billion or 2.2 percent to $51.4 billion.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in February, down five consecutive months, decreased $10.7 billion or 1.4 percent to $773.2 billion, revised from the previously published 1.3 percent decrease. This followed a 2.0 percent January decrease.

Inventories

Inventories of manufactured durable goods in February, down two consecutive months, decreased $3.6 billion or 1.1 percent to $336.1 billion, revised from the previously published 0.9 percent decrease. This followed a 1.1 percent January decrease.

Inventories of manufactured nondurable goods, down six consecutive months, decreased $2.6 billion or 1.3 percent to $193.5 billion. This followed a 1.2 percent January decrease. Petroleum and coal, led the decrease, down $1.0 billion or 3.9 percent to $23.7 billion. This also was the sixth consecutive monthly decrease.

By stage of fabrication, February materials and supplies decreased 0.6 percent in durable goods and 1.7 percent in nondurable goods. Work in process decreased 1.1 percent in durable goods and 1.3 percent in nondurable goods. Finished goods decreased 1.6 percent in durable goods and 1.0 percent in nondurable goods.

 
다음주에는 G20 회담이 있고, 공장재주문 지표 발표가 있습니다. G20 회담의 글로벌 정책 대응에 대한 시장 반응을 보고, 내구재 주문에 이어 공장재주문도 개선세가 나타나는지가 관심사항입니다. 반응과 지표가 괜찮을 경우, 시장의 제한적인 추가 호전세도 가능하다고 생각됩니다.

월요일 가이트너 1조달러 규모 부실채권 매입 뉴스로 7,500p 저항선 상향 돌파

8,000p 부근까지 진출한 이후 주후반 약한 조정 흐름

연초 9,000p --> 6,400p 직하강한 이후, 약 1,500p를 회복하였으며, 현재 2009년 연봉은 여전히 음봉상태
7,500p를 상승 돌파하였기 때문에, 이 선이 지지되는 한 급락 구간은 다소 탈피하였다고 볼 수 있음

1, 2월 일부 경기지표가 완화되는 흐름은 나타나고 있으나, 탄력적이고 본격적인 개선세 흐름인지는 계속 관찰이 필요함
다만 지수는 선행성이 있으므로, 절대 지수대가 지지된다면, 추가 급락에 대한 과도한 경계는 다소 완하 가능함

그러나, 지수 흐름에 관계없이 경기악화 구간을 의미있게 벗어나기까지 충분한 시간 경과를 가지고 관망하자는 흐름이므로
지수에 대해서 과도하게 접근할 시기는 아니라는 견해를 유지


전주 주요 경기지표 : 03.23~03.27

리치몬드 제조업 지수 낙폭 둔화되었으며,
내구재 주문이 기대이상으로 양(+), 플러스 반전하였음
기존 최종 분기 GDP는 예상대로 좋지 않음

개인소비, 개인소득은 낙폭 확대에서 벗어나, 둔화세를 보이고 있으나, 본격적인 개선세 전환으로 보기는 힘들다고 보임


미국 경기지표 주간 발표 일정 : 03.30~04.03

G20 회담, 공장재주문, 비농업고용인수, 실업률 

출처 : http://www.ofheo.gov/newsroom.aspx