다음은 통계청이 발표한 2009년 3월 고용동향입니다. 통계청 2009년 4월 15일 발표.
 

▣ 2009년 3월 경제활동참가율 60.2%로 전년동월대비 0.9%p 하락

   o 취업자 23,110천명으로 전년동월대비 195천명(-0.8%) 감소
    - 고용률 57.9%로 전년동월대비 1.2%p 하락

   o 실업률 4.0%로 전년동월대비 0.6%p 상승
    - 청년층 실업률 8.8%로 전년동월대비 1.2%p 상승
    - 계절조정 실업률은 3.7%로 전월대비 0.2%p 상승

** 자세한 내용은 첨부파일을 참고하시기 바랍니다 **
  (ssec0903.hwp:보도자료, ssec0903.xls:통계표, ssec0903.pdf:보도자료,통계표)   


◦ 2009년 3월 경제활동인구는 24,062천명으로 전년동월대비 52천명 (-0.2%) 감소하였고, 경제활동참가율은 60.2%로 전년동월대비 0.9%p 하락하였음
◦ 취업자는 23,110천명으로 전년동월대비 195천명(-0.8%) 감소하였음

< 취업자 증가 추이 >
                                                       (단위 : 천명)
‘08. 3월 ‘08. 10월   11월   12월   ‘09. 1월    2월    3월
      184           97       78      -12      -103      -142      -195

◦ 고용률(취업인구비율)은 57.9%로 전년동월대비 1.2%p 하락하였음

* 15～64세 고용률(OECD 국가간 비교기준 적용)은 62.2%임

◦ 실업자는 952천명으로 전년동월대비 142천명(17.6%) 증가하였음

◦ 실업률은 4.0%로 전년동월대비 0.6%p 상승하였음
- 청년층 실업률은 8.8%로 전년동월대비 1.2%p 상승하였음

◦ 비경제활동인구는 15,875천명으로 전년동월대비 525천명(3.4%) 증가하였음

◦ 계절조정계열에 대한 전월대비 변동을 보면
- 취업자는 23,333천명으로 전월대비 78천명 감소하였음
- 실업자는 886천명으로 전월대비 46천명 증가하였음
- 실업률은 3.7%로 전월대비 0.2%p 상승하였음

자세한 내용은 첨부파일을 참조하시기 바랍니다.

다음은 미국 기업재고, Business Inventories 월간 지표입니다.

 

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

TUESDAY, APRIL 14, 2009, AT 10:00 A.M. EDT

Timothy Winters (Retail): (301) 763-2713                                                                                                                            CB09-52
John Miller (Wholesale): (301) 763-2703
Chris Savage (Manufacturing): (301) 763-4832

MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES AND SALES
February 2009

Sales. The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for February, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $994.9 billion, up 0.2 percent (±0.2%)* from January 2009, but down 13.0 percent (±0.6%) from February 2008.

Inventories. Manufacturers’ and trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1,421.3 billion, down 1.3 percent (±0.1%) from January 2009 and down 3.5 percent (±0.3%) from February 2008.

Inventories/Sales Ratio. The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of February was 1.43. The February 2008 ratio was 1.29.

 

 

The Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales Report for March is scheduled to be released May 13, 2009 at 10:00 a.m. EDT.

For information, visit the Census Bureau’s Web site at <http://www.census.gov/bussales>. This report is also available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce’s STAT-USA (202-482-1986).

* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero.

 

Table 1. Estimated Monthly Sales and Inventories for Manufacturers, Retailers, and Merchant Wholesalers
(In millions of dollars)

See footnotes and notes at the end of Table 3.

(p) Preliminary estimate.
(r) Revised estimate.

 

Table 2. Percent Changes for Sales and Inventories--Manufacturers, Retailers, and Merchant Wholesalers

 

 

Table 3. Estimated Monthly Retail Sales, Inventories, and Inventories/Sales Ratios, By Kind of Business
(In millions of dollars)

(p) Preliminary estimate.
(r) Revised estimate.

¹ Inventories are on a non-LIFO basis as of the end of the month.
² Adjusted for seasonal variations and, in the case of sales, for trading-day differences and holiday variations. Concurrent seasonal adjustment is being used to adjust all sales, shipment, and inventory estimates. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12-ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are applied to the current and previous month estimates and for retail and wholesale estimates a year ago as well. For retail sales, concurrent seasonal adjustment is also used to adjust the advance estimates (published one month before the preliminary estimates) and the estimates one year before the advance month. This explains the revision to retail estimates from a year ago.
³ Manufacturers sales refer to the value of shipments by manufacturers. The shipments data from individual manufacturers are adjusted prior to tabulation for the number of trading days as well as for any variations in the length of the reporting period.
⁴ The 2002 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) defines merchant wholesalers as including manufacturers' sales branches and offices. However, the estimates included in this release exclude manufacturers' sales branches and offices. Note that this is not a change in coverage from prior releases and is consistent with the description used in the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey data products.

Note: U.S. and group totals include kinds of business not shown. The Manufacturing and Trade Inventory and Sales estimates are based on data from three surveys: the Monthly Retail Trade Survey, the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey, and the Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey. The sampling variability for retailers and merchant wholesalers can be used to construct a 90 percent confidence interval for the estimates. Over all possible samples, 90 percent of such intervals will cover the true estimate. These intervals are given in parentheses for the estimates on the front page. If, for example, the estimate is up 0.8 percent and the margin of sampling error is ±1.2 percent, the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.4 percent to +2.0 percent. If the range contains 0, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. Measures of reliability for Retail and Wholesale sales and inventory levels and changes are included in the detailed monthly press releases for those Industries. Manufacturers do not contribute to estimates of sampling variability because the manufacturer’s mail panel is not a probability sample from a known frame and standard errors of the industry estimates cannot be calculated. Estimates from all three surveys are also subject to nonsampling errors, which can arise in any stage of the survey. Such errors include coverage error (failure to accurately represent all population units in the sample), response errors, coding errors, and nonresponse. Although no direct measurement of these errors has been obtained, precautionary steps were taken in all phases of the collection, processing, and tabulation of the data to minimize their influence.

Source: Retail Indicators Branch, U.S. Census Bureau | Last Revised: April 14, 2009

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Page Last Modified: April 14, 2009


출처 : http://www.census.gov/mtis/www/mtis_current.html

 
미국 소매판매, Retail Sales 지표가 월간 -1.1% 다시 감소하였고, 결국 근래 2개월간 소폭 개선되는 듯 했으나,
침체 흐름의 일시적 기술적 둔화에 불과하고, 다시 침체가 지속되는 흐름을 보여주고 있습니다.
장기 침체가 연장되는 흐름으로 경계와 충분한 시간 경과가 필요하다고 생각됩니다.  

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

TUESDAY, APRIL 14, AT 8:30 A.M. EDT

Timothy Winters / Aneta Erdie                                                                                                                                                                                            CB09-51
Service Sector Statistics Division
(301) 763-2713

ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL TRADE AND FOOD SERVICES

MARCH 2009

Intention to Revise Retail Estimates: Monthly retail sales estimates will be revised based on the results of the 2007 Annual Retail Trade Survey. Revised not adjusted and corresponding adjusted data are scheduled for release on April 30, 2009.

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $344.4 billion, a decrease of 1.1 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month and 9.4 percent (±0.7%) below March 2008. Total sales for the January through March 2009 period were down 8.8 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The January 2009 to February 2009 percent change was revised from -0.1 percent (±0.5%)* to +0.3 percent (±0.3%)*.

Retail trade sales were down 1.1 percent (±0.7%) from February 2009 and 10.7 percent (±0.7%) below last year. Gasoline stations sales were down 34.0 percent (±1.5%) from March 2008 and motor vehicle and parts dealers sales were down 23.5 percent (±2.3%) from last year.

The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau's full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.

Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales
(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)

The Advance Monthly Retail Sales for Retail and Food Services for April is scheduled to be released May 13, 2009 at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

For information, visit the Census Bureau's Web site at <http://www.census.gov/retail>. This report is also available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's STAT-USA (202-482-1986).

* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different than zero.

---

TABLE 1A.  ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--March 2009
Estimates adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes.
(Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(2)

                 (In Millions of dollars)


                                                                     2009     2009     2009     2008     2008
   NAICS(1)                    Kind of Business                      Mar(3)   Feb      Jan      Mar      Feb
   Code                                                              (a)      (p)      (r)      (r)      (r)

                Retail & food services, total....................   344,380  348,359  347,311  380,171  378,191

                 Total (excl. motor vehicle &  parts)............   288,203  290,844  288,038  306,746  304,410

                   Retail .......................................   305,830  309,246  308,613  342,444  340,684

                GAFO(4)..........................................       (*)   96,663   95,550   98,272   97,271

   441          Motor vehicle & parts dealers....................    56,177   57,515   59,273   73,425   73,781
   4411,4412     Auto & other motor veh. dealers.................    49,659   50,926   52,720   67,011   67,405

   442          Furniture & home furnishings stores..............     8,231    8,370    8,326    9,467    9,445

   443          Electronics & appliance stores....................    8,535    9,066    9,007    9,427    9,199
   44311,13      Appl., T.V. &  camera...........................       (*)    7,279    7,254    7,609    7,375
   44312         Computer & software stores......................       (*)    1,787    1,753    1,818    1,824

   444          Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers    24,488   24,645   24,762   26,971   27,538
   4441          Building mat. & supplies dealers................       (*)   20,585   20,590   22,998   23,608

   445          Food & beverage stores...........................    49,469   49,239   49,308   48,671   48,367
   4451          Grocery stores..................................    44,123   43,931   44,063   43,649   43,400
   4453          Beer, wine & liquor stores......................       (*)    3,578    3,591    3,452    3,421

   446          Health & personal care stores....................    21,124   21,037   20,910   20,233   20,260
   44611         Pharmacies & drug stores........................       (*)   17,320   17,198   16,765   16,762

   447          Gasoline stations................................    27,896   28,339   27,474   42,253   41,523

   448          Clothing & clothing accessories stores...........    17,939   18,266   17,775   18,901   18,655
   44811         Men's clothing stores...........................       (*)      (S)      (S)      (S)      (S)
   44812         Women's clothing stores.........................       (*)    3,044    2,982    3,349    3,359
   4482          Shoe stores.....................................       (*)    2,215    2,087    2,201    2,221

   451          Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores.......     7,287    7,355    7,350    7,396    7,311

   452          General merchandise stores.......................    50,146   50,229   49,643   49,509   49,204
   4521          Department stores (ex. L.D.)....................    16,057   16,106   15,965   16,990   17,103
   4521          Department stores (incl. L.D.)(5)...............       (*)     (NA)     (NA)     (NA)     (NA)
   4529          Other general merchandise stores................       (*)   34,123   33,678   32,519   32,101
   45291          Warehouse clubs & supercenters.................       (*)   30,253   29,954   28,875   28,385
   45299          All other gen. merchandise stores..............       (*)    3,870    3,724    3,644    3,716

   453          Miscellaneous store retailers....................     9,519    9,736    9,214    9,867    9,715

   454          Nonstore retailers...............................    25,019   25,449   25,571   26,324   25,686
   4541          Electronic shopping & mail-order houses.........       (*)   18,264   18,301   17,912   17,504

   722          Food services & drinking places..................    38,550   39,113   38,698   37,727   37,507


                (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business.

                (NA) Not available (S) Suppressed (a) Advance estimate  (p) Preliminary estimate  (r) Revised estimate

(1)   For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html

(2)   Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment
      uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12 ARIMA program.  The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally
      adjusted estimates shown in this table.  Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated.  Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found
      on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html

(3)   Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample.
      All other estimates are from the MRTS sample.

(4)   GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443),
      clothing & clothing accessories (448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise (452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores (4532).

(5)   Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores.  Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.





TABLE 1B.  ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--March 2009
Estimates not adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences and price changes.
                 (In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change)

                                                                       3 month total
                                                                                 % Chg.   2009     2009     2009     2008     2008
   NAICS(1)                    Kind of Business                        2009       from    Mar(2)   Feb      Jan      Mar      Feb
   Code                                                                           2008    (a)      (p)      (r)

                Retail & food services, total....................     966,116    -10.1   338,716  308,599  318,801  378,755  348,876

                 Total (excl. motor vehicle &  parts)............     800,901     -6.8   278,617  255,952  266,332  300,572  278,636

                   Retail .......................................     854,825    -11.5   299,742  273,006  282,077  340,236  313,244

                GAFO(3)..........................................         (*)       (*)      (*)   83,579   84,003   93,727   87,385

   441          Motor vehicle & parts dealers....................     165,215    -23.2    60,099   52,647   52,469   78,183   70,240
   4411,4412     Auto & other motor veh. dealers.................     146,785    -25.5    53,483   46,750   46,552   71,769   64,304
   44111          New car dealers................................         (*)       (*)      (*)   35,603   36,334   56,849   51,188
   4413          Auto parts, acc. & tire stores..................         (*)       (*)      (*)    5,897    5,917    6,414    5,936

   442          Furniture & home furnishings stores..............      23,094    -13.9     7,951    7,466    7,677    9,136    8,822
   4421          Furniture stores................................         (*)       (*)      (*)    4,434    4,370    5,100    5,063
   4422          Home furnishings stores.........................         (*)       (*)      (*)    3,032    3,307    4,036    3,759

   443          Electronics & appliance stores....................     24,895     -5.5     7,796    8,492    8,607    8,659    8,857
   44311,13      Appl., T.V. &  camera...........................         (*)       (*)      (*)    6,857    6,964    6,886    7,146
   44312         Computer & software stores......................         (*)       (*)      (*)    1,635    1,643    1,773    1,711

   444          Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers      61,313    -11.6    23,741   18,528   19,044   25,703   21,783
   4441          Building mat. & supplies dealers................         (*)       (*)      (*)   16,015   16,616   21,802   19,264

   445          Food & beverage stores...........................     140,814     -0.1    47,673   44,392   48,749   48,557   45,351
   4451          Grocery stores..................................     127,060     -0.5    42,888   39,933   44,239   43,824   40,970
   4453          Beer, wine & liquor stores......................         (*)       (*)      (*)    2,959    3,106    3,176    2,976

   446          Health & personal care stores....................      62,399      2.2    21,504   19,985   20,910   20,779   20,078
   44611         Pharmacies & drug stores........................         (*)       (*)      (*)   16,558   17,370   17,184   16,712

   447          Gasoline stations................................      76,454    -34.1    27,115   24,145   25,194   41,281   36,789

   448          Clothing & clothing accessories stores...........      45,569     -6.4    16,541   15,171   13,857   18,119   16,128
   44811         Men's clothing stores...........................         (*)       (*)      (*)      623      652      816      722
   44812         Women's clothing stores.........................         (*)       (*)      (*)    2,417    2,299    3,406    2,785
   44814         Family clothing stores..........................         (*)       (*)      (*)    5,713    5,461    6,751    5,680
   4482          Shoe stores.....................................         (*)       (*)      (*)    1,918    1,663    2,285    1,999

   451          Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores.......      19,367     -1.8     6,449    5,752    7,166    6,649    6,024

   452          General merchandise stores.......................     133,847     -0.3    46,841   43,611   43,395   47,929   44,205
   4521          Department stores (ex. L.D.)....................      40,277     -8.1    14,407   13,169   12,701   15,938   14,490
   4521          Department stores (incl. L.D.)(4)...............         (*)       (*)      (*)   13,523   13,038   16,384   14,891
   4529          Other general merchandise stores................         (*)       (*)      (*)   30,442   30,694   31,991   29,715
   45291          Warehouse clubs & supercenters.................         (*)       (*)      (*)   27,137   27,618   28,442   26,426
   45299          All other gen. merchandise stores..............         (*)       (*)      (*)    3,305    3,076    3,549    3,289

   453          Miscellaneous store retailers....................      26,010     -5.4     8,972    8,620    8,418    9,224    9,025

   454          Nonstore retailers...............................      75,848     -4.7    25,060   24,197   26,591   26,017   25,942
   4541          Electronic shopping & mail-order houses.........         (*)       (*)      (*)   16,346   17,843   16,855   16,401

   722          Food services & drinking places..................     111,291      2.0    38,974   35,593   36,724   38,519   35,632


                (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business.

                (NA) Not available  (a) Advance estimate  (p) Preliminary estimate  (r) Revised estimate

(1)   For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html

(2)   Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample.
      All other estimates are from the MRTS sample.

(3)   GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443),
      clothing & clothing accessories (448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise (452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores (4532).

(4)   Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores.  Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.





TABLE 2A. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--March 2009
Estimates adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes
(Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey,
 Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(*)

                                                                        Mar             Feb
                                                                        2009            2009
                                                                        adv.            prel.
                                                                        from--          from--



   NAICS                       Kind of Business                      Feb     Mar     Jan     Feb
   Code                                                              2009    2008    2009    2008
                                                                     (p)     (r)     (r)     (r)

                Retail & food Services, total....................     -1.1    -9.4    +0.3    -7.9

                  Total (excl. motor vehicle &  parts )..........     -0.9    -6.0    +1.0    -4.5

                        Retail ..................................     -1.1   -10.7    +0.2    -9.2

   441          Motor vehicle & parts dealers....................     -2.3   -23.5    -3.0   -22.0
   4411,4412       Auto & other motor veh. dealers...............     -2.5   -25.9    -3.4   -24.4

   442          Furniture & home furnishings stores..............     -1.7   -13.1    +0.5   -11.4

   443          Electronics & appliance stores...................     -5.9    -9.5    +0.7    -1.4

   444          Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers     -0.6    -9.2    -0.5   -10.5

   445          Food & beverage stores...........................     +0.5    +1.6    -0.1    +1.8
   4451          Grocery stores..................................     +0.4    +1.1    -0.3    +1.2

   446          Health & personal care stores....................     +0.4    +4.4    +0.6    +3.8

   447          Gasoline stations................................     -1.6   -34.0    +3.1   -31.8

   448          Clothing & clothing accessories stores...........     -1.8    -5.1    +2.8    -2.1

   451          Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........    -0.9    -1.5    +0.1    +0.6

   452          General merchandise stores.......................     -0.2    +1.3    +1.2    +2.1
   4521          Department stores (ex. L.D.)....................     -0.3    -5.5    +0.9    -5.8

   453          Miscellaneous stores retailers...................     -2.2    -3.5    +5.7    +0.2

   454          Nonstore retailers...............................     -1.7    -5.0    -0.5    -0.9

   722          Food services & drinking places..................     -1.4    +2.2    +1.1    +4.3


  (p) Preliminary estimate  (r) Revised estimate

  (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1A of this report.





TABLE 2B. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--March 2009
Data not adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences and price changes.
(Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey,
 Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(*)

                                                                        Mar             Feb
                                                                        2009            2009
                                                                        adv.            prel.
                                                                        from--          from--



   NAICS                       Kind of Business                      Feb     Mar     Jan     Feb
   Code                                                              2009    2008    2009    2008
                                                                     (p)     (r)     (r)     (r)

                Retail & food Services, total....................     +9.8   -10.6    -3.2   -11.5

                  Total (excl. motor vehicle &  parts )..........     +8.9    -7.3    -3.9    -8.1

                        Retail ..................................     +9.8   -11.9    -3.2   -12.8

   441          Motor vehicle & parts dealers....................    +14.2   -23.1    +0.3   -25.0
   4411,4412       Auto & other motor veh. dealers................   +14.4   -25.5    +0.4   -27.3

   442          Furniture & home furnishings stores..............     +6.5   -13.0    -2.7   -15.4

   443          Electronics & appliance stores...................     -8.2   -10.0    -1.3    -4.1

   444          Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers    +28.1    -7.6    -2.7   -14.9

   445          Food & beverage stores...........................     +7.4    -1.8    -8.9    -2.1
   4451          Grocery stores..................................     +7.4    -2.1    -9.7    -2.5

   446          Health & personal care stores....................     +7.6    +3.5    -4.4    -0.5

   447          Gasoline stations................................    +12.3   -34.3    -4.2   -34.4

   448          Clothing & clothing accessories stores...........     +9.0    -8.7    +9.5    -5.9

   451          Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........   +12.1    -3.0   -19.7    -4.5

   452          General merchandise stores.......................     +7.4    -2.3    +0.5    -1.3
   4521          Department stores (ex. L.D.)....................     +9.4    -9.6    +3.7    -9.1

   453          Miscellaneous stores retailers...................     +4.1    -2.7    +2.4    -4.5

   454          Nonstore retailers...............................     +3.6    -3.7    -9.0    -6.7

   722          Food services & drinking places..................     +9.5    +1.2    -3.1    -0.1

  (p) Preliminary estimate  (r) Revised estimate

  (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from not adjusted estimates provided in Table 1B of this report.

SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--MARCH 2009 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Timothy Winters (301) 763-2713.

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Survey Description

The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey (MARTS) to provide an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the United States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 5,000 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). Firms responding to MARTS account for approximately 65% of the total national sales estimate. Advance sales estimates are computed using a link relative estimator. The change in sales from the previous month is estimated using only units that have reported data for both the current and previous month. There is no imputation or adjustment for nonrespondents in MARTS. The total sales estimate is derived by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous month (derived from the larger MRTS sample). Detailed industry estimates are summed to derive total estimates at broad industry levels. The monthly estimates are adjusted using annual survey estimates and for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences. Additional information on MARTS and MRTS can be found on the Census Bureau website at: http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html.

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Reliability of Estimates

Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and nonsampling error. Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients of variation (CV), as given in Table 3 of this report, are estimated measures of sampling variation. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is 90-percent confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9 percent or ±1.5 percent, and the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.3 percent to +2.7 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the change is different from zero and therefore the change is not statistically significant. Estimated changes shown in the text are statistically significant unless otherwise noted. For a monthly total, the median estimated coefficient of variation is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ±1.65 x CV x (the estimated monthly total). The Census Bureau recommends that individuals using estimates in this report incorporate this information into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions drawn from the estimates. Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response, coverage, or processing. Although nonsampling error is not measured directly, the Census Bureau employs quality control procedures throughout the process to minimize this type of error.

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(1) Estimated measures of sampling variability are based on estimates not adjusted for seasonal variation, or holiday, or trading-day differences. Medians are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months.

(2) These columns provide measures of the difference between the advance-to-preliminary and preliminary-to-final estimates of month-to-month change for the same pair of months as measured by the Advance sample and MRTS sample. The average and median differences are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months.

Note: Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html

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Current Quarter Retail E-Commerce Sales

Source: Retail Indicators Branch, U.S. Census Bureau | Last Revised: April 14, 2009

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Page Last Modified: April 14, 2009

출처 : http://www.census.gov/marts/www/marts_current.html

코스피에 대해 차익실현을 권장합니다.




미국 경지지표를 보면, 소매판매 Retail Sales 지표가 근래 2개월간 개선되는 듯 했으나,
결국 침체의 기술적인 일시적 둔화일 뿐, 3월 소매판매 지표는 다시 악화로 나타나고 있으며,
PPI는 하락하여 디플레이션 경향을 보이고 있고,

기업재고 Business Inventories는 개선 징후가 없습니다.

2009년 연초 1,100p 부근, 저점 1,000p 정도로 잡으면, 최근 코스피 지수는 최소 20~40% 선까지
2분기 초반에 먼저 올라섰기 때문에 일단 차익실현을 권장합니다.

조만간 새 글로 쓰고자 하나, 시장 심리나 시장 지표로도 현재 국면은 차익실현이 무난합니다.

Date		Actual	Forecast	Previous
Mon
13-Apr
Tue	Core Retail Sales m/m		0.10%	0.70%
14-Apr	PPI m/m		0.00%	0.10%
	Retail Sales m/m		0.30%	-0.10%
	Core PPI m/m		0.10%	0.20%
	Business Inventories m/m		-1.20%	-1.10%
	FOMC Member Evans Speaks
	Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
Wed	Core CPI m/m		0.10%	0.20%
15-Apr	CPI m/m		0.10%	0.40%
	Empire State Manufacturing Index		-35	-38.2
	TIC Long-Term Purchases		17.3B	-43.0B
	Capacity Utilization Rate		69.70%	70.20%
	Industrial Production m/m		-0.80%	-1.50%
	Crude Oil Inventories			1.7M
	NAHB Housing Market Index		10	9
	Beige Book
Thu	Building Permits		0.55M	0.56M
16-Apr
	Unemployment Claims		659K	654K
	Housing Starts		0.53M	0.58M
	Philly Fed Manufacturing Index		-31.8	-35
	Natural Gas Storage			20B
	FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks
	FOMC Member Yellen Speaks
Fri	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment		58.3	57.3
17-Apr
	Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations			2.00%
	Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

2009년4월9일 금융통화위원회는 다음 통화정책방향 결정 시까지 한국은행 기준금리를 현 수준(2.00%)에서 유지하여 통화정책을 운용하기로 하였음

통화정책방향

□ 금융통화위원회는 다음 통화정책방향 결정시까지 한국은행 기준 금리를 현 수준(2.00%)에서 유지하여 통화정책을 운용하기로 하였음

□ 최근 국내 경기는 내수와 수출 모두 감소세를 지속하면서 계속 위축되고 있으나 하강속도는 다소 완만해지고 있으며 세계경제
침체, 국제금융시장 불안 등으로 인해 향후 성장의 하향위험은 여전히 큰 것으로 판단됨

□ 소비자물가는 국제유가가 안정세를 보이는 가운데 경기부진에 따른 수요압력 완화로 오름세가 둔화되었으며 앞으로도 이러한
추세가 이어질 것으로 보임. 부동산시장에서는 거래위축 및 가격 하락 현상이 지속되고 있음

□ 금융시장에서는 환율, 주가 등 가격변수가 개선된 모습을 나타내었으며 금융기관의 대출태도가 완화되면서 가계 및 중소기업
대출이 꾸준히 늘어나고 있음

□ 앞으로 통화정책은 당분간 금융완화기조를 유지하면서 경기의 과도한 위축을 방지하고 금융시장 안정을 도모하는 데 주안점
을 두고 운용해 나갈 것임



최근 국내외 경제동향

□ 최근 국내경기는 부진에서 벗어나지 못하고 있으나 일부 지표를  
    중심으로 그간의 가파른 하강세가 둔화되는 기미를 보임
ㅇ 수출은 큰 폭의 감소세를 지속하고 있으나 소비재판매 감
소세는 둔화되는 모습
ㅇ 설비투자의 감소세는 확대되는 반면 건설기성액은 증가세
ㅇ 제조업 및 서비스업의 생산활동은 완만하나마 개선되는 조짐

□ 경기판단지표들은 경기 하락세가 감속되고 있음을 시사
ㅇ 경기동행지수(순환변동치)의 낙폭이 축소되고
선 행지수(전년동월대비 증감률)는 07.11월 이후 처음으로 상승
전환
ㅇ 재고/출하비율도 하락세를 지속

자세한 내용은 <붙 임> 참조

 

 
 
미국 도매재고, Wholesales Inventories 월간수치가(m/m) 2월 -1.5% 감소하였습니다.  미국 통계국(Census Bureau) 발표

Sales. The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that February 2009 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and
offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $319.7 billion, up 0.6 percent (+/-0.7%)*
from the revised January level and were down 14.3 percent (+/-1.6%) from the February 2008 level. The January preliminary estimate was revised
downward $0.7 billion or 0.2 percent. February sales of durable goods were up 2.0 percent (+/-1.4%) from last month, but were down 14.8 percent
(+/-2.1%) from a year ago. Compared to last month, sales of motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts and supplies were up 3.7 percent, while sales of
metals and minerals, except petroleum, were down 5.6 percent. Sales of nondurable goods were down 0.4 percent (+/-0.7%)* from last month and
were down 13.8 percent (+/-1.6%) from last year. Sales of chemicals and allied products were down 4.6 percent from last month.

Inventories. Total inventories of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations
but not for price changes, were $419.3 billion at the end of February, down 1.5 percent (+/-0.4%) from the revised January level, and were down 1.7
percent (+/-0.9%) from a year ago. The January preliminary estimate was revised upward $0.2 billion. End-of-month inventories of durable goods
were down 2.4 percent (+/-0.5%) from last month, but were up 0.7 percent (+/-1.1%)* from last February. Inventories of motor vehicle and motor
vehicle parts and supplies were down 7.9 percent from last month and inventories of furniture and home furnishings were down 3.0 percent. End-ofmonth
inventories of nondurable goods decreased 0.2 percent (+/-0.5%)* from January and were down 5.5 percent (+/-1.9%) compared to last
February. Inventories of farm product raw materials were down 5.4 percent from last month, and inventories of paper and paper products were down
4.8 percent.

Inventories/Sales Ratio. The February inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, based
on seasonally adjusted data, was 1.31. The February 2008 ratio was 1.14.
Data in this report are based on a sample and, therefore, are subject to sampling and nonsampling error. A discussion of the reliability of the estimates
and general survey methodology can be found at: <http://www.census.gov/wholesale/www/how_surveys_are_collected/011340.html>.

자료 : 첨부파일, 출처 : http://www.census.gov/wholesale/index.html

currentwhl_0904.pdf