--> I'm Lucky 최근글 <--

'경기지표'에 해당되는 글 62건




  1. 2009.04.22 OECD 평균실업률 추이, OECD 국가별 실업률 _2009.04.10
  2. 2009.04.22 국내 실업률 추이, 연령대별 실업률 변화 _1999~2009.04
  3. 2009.04.22 미국 경기선행지수 3월 -0.3% 감소 _컨퍼런스보드 _09.04.20
  4. 2009.04.18 미국 경제지표 주간 발표 일정 _09.04.20~04.24
  5. 2009.04.18 미국 실업률 지도 _ 실업률 8.5%, 일부지역 25% 상회 _1948~2009.04 _US Unemployment rate
  6. 2009.04.18 미국 산업생산, Industrial Production 4월 월간 -1.5% _09.04.15
  7. 2009.04.18 미국 4월 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 엠파이어 스테이트 제조업 지수 -14.7 _09.04.15
  8. 2009.04.17 미국 베이지북 2009년 4월호 주요내용 _US Beige Book _2009.04.15


다음은 OECD가 발표한 OECD 평균실업률, OECD 국가별 실업률 추이입니다.
2009년 4월 10일 발표한 바에 따르면, OECD 평균실업률은 2009년 2월에 7.3%를 돌파했습니다.

전년동기에 비하면 거의 모든 국가가 실업률이 증가한 가운데, 미국, 영국, 프랑스, 캐나다 및 주요 7개 국가가 높은 실업률 증가를 보여주고 있습니다. 




국가별로 실업률을 보면
10% 이상 : 스페인(15.5%), 아일랜드, 터키(2008.12)
9% 이상 : 포르투갈
8% 이상 : 프랑스, 캐나다(2009.03), 미국(2009.03), 헝가리, 유럽전역 평균
7% 이상 : 벨기에, 캐나다, 독일, 폴란드, 스웨덴, OECD 평균, 유럽연합 평균
6% 이상 : 핀란드, 영국(2008.12)
5% 이상 : 호주, 룩셈브르크
4% 이상 : 오스트리아, 체코, 덴마크, 일본, 한국(2009.03), 멕시코
3% 이상 :
2% 이상 : 네델란드




실업률 증감율로 보면, (전년동기 대비)
스페인, 미국, 아일랜드 등이 높은 실업률 증가를 보여주고 있고,
OECD 전체 평균 실업률 증감율은 전년 동기 대비 1.7% 입니다.
한국의 경우에는 최근 지표들에서 증가율 추세가 강화되어 나타나고 있습니다.




다음은 OECD 해설 자료입니다.

OECD unemployment rate rises to 7.3% in February 2009

The unemployment rate for the OECD area was 7.3% in February 2009, 0.3 percentage point
higher than the previous month and 1.7 percentage points higher than a year earlier.
In the Euro area, the unemployment rate was 8.5% in February 2009, 0.2 percentage point higher
than the previous month and 1.3 percentage points higher than a year earlier. For the United States, the
unemployment rate for March 2009 was 8.5%, 0.4 percentage point higher than the previous month and
3.5 percentage points higher than a year earlier. For Japan, the rate was 4.4% in February 2009,
0.3 percentage point higher than the previous month and 0.5 percentage point higher than in
February 2008.

In February 2009, the unemployment rate for France was 8.6%, 0.1 percentage point higher than
the previous month and 1.0 percentage point higher than a year earlier. For Germany, the rate was 7.4% in
February 2009, 0.1 percentage point higher than the previous month but 0.2 percentage point lower than in
February 2008. For Canada, the unemployment rate was 8.0% in March 2009, 0.3 percentage point higher
the previous month and 1.9 percentage points higher than a year earlier. In December 2008, the rate in the
United Kingdom was 6.4%, 0.1 percentage point higher than the previous month and 1.4 percentage
points higher than in December 2007. In December 2008, the rate in Italy was 6.9%, the same as the
previous month and 0.5 percentage point higher than in December 2007.

The latest unemployment rates for other OECD countries and geographic groupings, as well as
historical data, can be downloaded from the OECD online data dissemination facility OECD.Stat Extracts
at:
http://stats.oecd.org/wbos/Default.aspx?QueryName=251&QueryType=View&Lang=en.




맞춤검색

,

국내 실업률 최근 10년 월간 추이입니다.

2009년 4월에 발표한, 2009년 3월 통계청 집계 전체실업률은 4%를 돌파했습니다.
이러한 실업률은 근래들어 높은 것이기는 하지만, 경제 추이를 볼 때 당분간 지속적으로 증가될 가능성이 유력하다고 보입니다.





연령대별 실업률을 보면, 경제활동 진입기에 있는 인구의 실업률이 높아지고 있으며, 최근에는 핵심 경제활동 연령대의 실업률은 물론, 중장년층의 실업률 비율도 높아지고 있습니다.




2008년 3월, 2008년 9월과 대비해서, 2009년 4월의 연령대별 실업률을 보면,
20대의 경우 전체에서 2008년 하반기 이후 실업률이 악화되었으며, 40대의 경우 최근에 실업률이 폭발적으로 증가하여 실직의 고통이 가중되고 있음을 볼 수 있습니다. 또한 60대에도 최근에 실업률이 높게 나타나, 주요 생계 계층의 일자리 환경이 급격히 악화되고 있다고 짐작할 수 있습니다.



연령계층별 2008. 03 2008. 09 2009. 03 2008년 3월 대비 증감율 2008년 9월 대비 증감율
3.4 3 4 17.65 33.33
15 - 19세 5.9 8.8 12 103.39 36.36
20 - 29세 7.6 6 8.7 14.47 45.00
 20 - 24세 10.4 7.3 10.3 -0.96 41.10
 25 - 29세 6.3 5.5 8 26.98 45.45
30 - 39세 3.1 3.3 3.9 25.81 18.18
 30 - 34세 3.7 3.8 4.4 18.92 15.79
 35 - 39세 2.6 2.8 3.6 38.46 28.57
40 - 49세 2.4 2 2.9 20.83 45.00
 40 - 44세 2.7 1.9 2.9 7.41 52.63
 45 - 49세 2.1 2.1 2.8 33.33 33.33
50 - 59세 2 2.1 2.4 20.00 14.29
 50 - 54세 1.9 2.1 2.4 26.32 14.29
 55 - 59세 2.1 2.2 2.4 14.29 9.09
60세이상 1.4 1 1.4 0.00 40.00
 60 - 64세 1.8 1.6 2.3 27.78 43.75
 65세 이상 1.1 0.6 0.7 -36.36 16.67
(단위:%)

(출처: 통계청)




즉, 전반적으로 경제활동 중심세대의 실업률이 최근에 급속도로 악화하고 있으며, 20대, 40대, 60대가 큰 타격을 보고 있다고 볼 수 있습니다.




맞춤검색

,


미국 경기선행지수가 2009년 3월 -0.3% 감소했다고 컨퍼런스보드가 2009년 4월 20일 현지 발표하였습니다.
둔화세가 지속되고 있고, 본격적인 회복세는 아직 이르다고 볼 수 있습니다.

LEI = 컨퍼런스보드 경기선행지수 (미국)
CEI = 컨퍼런스보드 경기신뢰지수 (미국)





Released: Monday, April 20, 2009

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index™ (LEI) for the U.S. decreased 0.3 percent, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index™ (CEI) decreased 0.4 percent and The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index™ (LAG) decreased 0.4 percent in March.


  • The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. declined again in March, and the index has not risen in the past nine months. Building permits, stock prices, and the index of supplier deliveries made large negative contributions to the index this month, more than offsetting continued positive contributions from real money supply and the yield spread. In the six months through March, the index fell 2.5 percent (about a -4.9 percent annual rate), faster than the decrease of 1.4 percent (a -2.7 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. In addition, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have remained widespread in recent months.
  •  

  • The Conference Board CEI for the U.S. continued falling in March, driven by further declines in employment and industrial production. In the six months through March, the index decreased 3.0 percent (about a -5.8 percent annual rate), faster than the decline of 2.0 percent (a -3.9 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. In March, the lagging economic index for the U.S. fell by the same amount as the coincident economic index, and as a result, the coincident to lagging ratio remained unchanged. Meanwhile, real GDP contracted at an average annual rate of 3.5 percent in the second half of 2008 (including a decline of 6.3 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter).
  •  

  • The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. remains on a general downtrend that began in July 2007, with widespread weaknesses among its components. However, its rate of decline has moderated somewhat this year. The Conference Board CEI for the U.S. has been on a declining trend since November 2007, although it has also decreased at a modestly slower pace in recent months. All in all, the behavior of the composite economic indexes suggests that the economic recession that started in December 2007 will continue in the near term, but that the contraction in activity could become less severe in upcoming months.

  • 출처 : US Conference Board


    맞춤검색

    ,
     
    미국 경제지표 지표 주간발표(09.04.20~09.04.24) 일정입니다.
    다음주에는 실업청구건수를 비롯하여, 주택판매 지표가 발표됩니다.
    특히, 내구재주문의 경우 일시적 회복세 이후 재악화도 예상되고 있으므로 경계가 필요해 보입니다.
    다음주 후반에는 FRB의 은행권에 대한 Bank Stress Test 결과 발표가 있다고 합니다.
    모두 통과될 것으로 보여 고무적이라고 하나, 경기 회복세가 아직 본질적으로 일어나고 있다고 보기는 힘들기 때문에,
    지수 전반에 대해서도 과도한 추격은 자제하고 차후 진입 시점을 모색하는 것이 좋다고 생각됩니다.

     
    Apr 19 - Apr 25
    Date   Actual Forecast Previous
    Mon FOMC Member Evans Speaks      
    20-Apr CB Leading Index m/m   -0.20% -0.40%
      FOMC Member Evans Speaks      
      FOMC Member Kohn Speaks      
    Tue  
    21-Apr
    Wed HPI m/m   -0.70% 1.70%
    22-Apr Crude Oil Inventories     5.6M
    Thu Unemployment Claims   635K 610K
    23-Apr Existing Home Sales   4.66M 4.72M
      Natural Gas Storage     21B
    Fri Treasury Sec Geithner Speaks      
    24-Apr Core Durable Goods Orders m/m   -1.10%
    3.70%
     
      Durable Goods Orders m/m   -1.40%
    3.50%
     
      New Home Sales   340K 337K
      Bank Stress Test      



    맞춤검색

    ,


    다음은 미국실업률 추이 및 미국 실업률 지역별 지도 입니다. _1949~2009.04

    실업률은 계속 상승하고 있으며, OECD는 금년~내년까지 미국 실업률이 평균 10%를 상회할 것으로 최근에 전망한 바 있습니다.

    미국의 지역별 실업률을 보면, 2009년 3월 현재 미국 전역 평균 8.5%에 이르는 가운데,
    서부 및 동부 내륙 공업지역이 심각한 상태를 보여주고 있으며, 이들 일부 지역의 실업률은 이미 20%를 상회하고 있으며,
    실업률이 25%를 이미 넘어서고 있는 지역도 나타나고 있습니다.


    미국 실업률 변화 _1999~2009.03

     
    Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey


    Series Id:           lns14000000
    Seasonal Adjusted
    Series title:        (Seas) Unemployment Rate
    Labor force status:  Unemployment rate
    Type of data:        Percent
    Age:                 16 years and over
    Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
    1999 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0  
    2000 4.0 4.1 4.0 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9  
    2001 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.9 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.7  
    2002 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 6.0  
    2003 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.8 5.7  
    2004 5.7 5.6 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.4  
    2005 5.2 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.8  
    2006 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4  
    2007 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.9  
    2008 4.9 4.8 5.1 5.0 5.5 5.6 5.8 6.2 6.2 6.6 6.8 7.2  
    2009 7.6 8.1 8.5                    

    출처 : US Bureau of Labor Statistics


    미국 실업률 변화 _1948~2009.03

    Series Id:           LNS14000000
    Seasonal Adjusted
    Series title:        (Seas) Unemployment Rate
    Labor force status:  Unemployment rate
    Type of data:        Percent
    Age:                 16 years and over

    Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
    1948 3.4 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.8 4.0  
    1949 4.3 4.7 5.0 5.3 6.1 6.2 6.7 6.8 6.6 7.9 6.4 6.6  
    1950 6.5 6.4 6.3 5.8 5.5 5.4 5.0 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.3  
    1951 3.7 3.4 3.4 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.1  
    1952 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.7  
    1953 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.5 4.5  
    1954 4.9 5.2 5.7 5.9 5.9 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.1 5.7 5.3 5.0  
    1955 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.3 4.2 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.2  
    1956 4.0 3.9 4.2 4.0 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.1 3.9 3.9 4.3 4.2  
    1957 4.2 3.9 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.4 4.5 5.1 5.2  
    1958 5.8 6.4 6.7 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.5 7.4 7.1 6.7 6.2 6.2  
    1959 6.0 5.9 5.6 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.3  
    1960 5.2 4.8 5.4 5.2 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.5 6.1 6.1 6.6  
    1961 6.6 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.1 6.9 7.0 6.6 6.7 6.5 6.1 6.0  
    1962 5.8 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.7 5.5  
    1963 5.7 5.9 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.7 5.5  
    1964 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.1 5.2 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.1 4.8 5.0  
    1965 4.9 5.1 4.7 4.8 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0  
    1966 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.8  
    1967 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.8  
    1968 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4  
    1969 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.5  
    1970 3.9 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.9 6.1  
    1971 5.9 5.9 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.0 5.8 6.0 6.0  
    1972 5.8 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.3 5.2  
    1973 4.9 5.0 4.9 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.6 4.8 4.9  
    1974 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.9 6.0 6.6 7.2  
    1975 8.1 8.1 8.6 8.8 9.0 8.8 8.6 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.3 8.2  
    1976 7.9 7.7 7.6 7.7 7.4 7.6 7.8 7.8 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.8  
    1977 7.5 7.6 7.4 7.2 7.0 7.2 6.9 7.0 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.4  
    1978 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.1 6.0 5.9 6.2 5.9 6.0 5.8 5.9 6.0  
    1979 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.6 5.7 5.7 6.0 5.9 6.0 5.9 6.0  
    1980 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.9 7.5 7.6 7.8 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.2  
    1981 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.2 7.5 7.5 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.9 8.3 8.5  
    1982 8.6 8.9 9.0 9.3 9.4 9.6 9.8 9.8 10.1 10.4 10.8 10.8  
    1983 10.4 10.4 10.3 10.2 10.1 10.1 9.4 9.5 9.2 8.8 8.5 8.3  
    1984 8.0 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.4 7.2 7.5 7.5 7.3 7.4 7.2 7.3  
    1985 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.2 7.4 7.4 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 7.0  
    1986 6.7 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.6  
    1987 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.0 5.9 6.0 5.8 5.7  
    1988 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.4 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3  
    1989 5.4 5.2 5.0 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4  
    1990 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.9 5.9 6.2 6.3  
    1991 6.4 6.6 6.8 6.7 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.3  
    1992 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.6 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.3 7.4 7.4  
    1993 7.3 7.1 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.5  
    1994 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.6 5.5  
    1995 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.6  
    1996 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.3 5.5 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.4 5.4  
    1997 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1 4.9 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.7  
    1998 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.4  
    1999 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0  
    2000 4.0 4.1 4.0 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9  
    2001 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.9 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.7  
    2002 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 6.0  
    2003 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.8 5.7  
    2004 5.7 5.6 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.4  
    2005 5.2 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.8  
    2006 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4  
    2007 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.9  
    2008 4.9 4.8 5.1 5.0 5.5 5.6 5.8 6.2 6.2 6.6 6.8 7.2  
    2009 7.6 8.1 8.5                    

    출처 : US Bureau of Labor Statistics


    미국 지역별 실업률 지도

    출처 : New York Times


    맞춤검색

    ,

     
    미국 산업생산, Industrial Production 지표가 4월 월간(m/m) -1.5% 추가 하락하였습니다.

    산업생산, Industrial Production 지표로 보면 침체한 미국경기는 아직 뚜렷한 회복세로 전환되지는 못하고 있음을
    볼 수 있습니다.



    Industrial production fell 1.5 percent in March after a similar decrease in February. For the first quarter as a whole, output dropped at an annual rate of 20.0 percent, the largest quarterly decrease of the current contraction. At 97.4 percent of its 2002 average, output in March fell to its lowest level since December 1998 and was nearly 13 percent below its year-earlier level. Production in manufacturing moved down 1.7 percent in March and has registered five consecutive quarterly decreases. Broad-based declines in production continued; one exception was the output of motor vehicles and parts, which advanced slightly in March but remained well below its year-earlier level. Outside of manufacturing, the output of mines fell 3.2 percent in March, as oil and gas well drilling continued to drop. After a relatively mild February, a return to more seasonal temperatures pushed up the output of utilities. The capacity utilization rate for total industry fell further to 69.3 percent, a historical low for this series, which begins in 1967. (Federal Reserve 보고 자료)







    산업생산성, Production 지표를 보면, 1970년대 석유파동과, 1970년대 후반, 1980년대 초반의 경제침체기 이후로
    가장 심각하고 급격한 침체의 모습을 보여주고 있음을 알 수 있습니다.




    산업별로 보면, 소비재, Consumer Goods에서 내구재, Durable 부문이 급격히 침체했고,
    장비, Equipment부분은 민간재 부분의 침체가 심화되었으며,
    건설, Construction과 비에너지, Non-energy 부분이 급격하게 침강하였습니다.



    또한 산업별로 보면, 하이테크놀로지 산업 부분을 제외한 부분이 더 타격받고 있다고 추정할 수 있으므로,
    상대적으로 High-Tech 부분이 살아남는다면 개선세의 혜택도 먼저 나타날 것으로 일단 짐작은 가능합니다.

    자세한 자료는 첨부파일을 참조하시기 바랍니다.


    출처 : Federal Reserve



    맞춤검색

    ,

    미국 엠파이어 스테이트 제조업 지수, Empire State Manufacturing Index가 -14.7 로 여전히 마이너스권에 있지만,
    기존에 비하면 추세가 약간 올라서고 있어서, 둔화세가 완화되는 모습은 나타나고 있습니다. 2009년 4월 15일 현지 발표 

    Empire State Manufacturing Index는 New Tork State에 있는 약 200여개의 제조업체를 조사해서 현재의 일반적 비지니스 환경에 대한 반응을 수치화한한 지표입니다. 소비, 고용, 투자와 같은 경제활동과 경기체감도, 경제활력의 대표적 선행 지표로 일컬어 집니다. 다른 명칭으로는
    New York Manufacturing Index 로 불리기도 합니다.


    April 2009 Report

    Survey Indicators
    Seasonally Adjusted


     


    The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers continued to deteriorate in April, but at a much slower pace than in recent months. The general business conditions index climbed 24 points from its March record low, to -14.7. The new orders index shot up 41 points to a reading just below zero, and the shipments index rose 25 points, also reaching a level near zero. The inventories index continued to fall, hitting a record low -36.0.  The indexes for both prices paid and prices received remained negative. The index for number of employees, while negative, improved in April, but the average workweek index fell. Future indexes were much improved, with the future general business conditions, new orders, and shipments indexes rising sharply to levels not seen since September of last year. The capital spending and technology spending indexes remained below zero, although they were considerably above last month’s levels.

    In response to a series of supplementary questions, manufacturers generally indicated that factors other than tight credit were largely responsible for weakness in sales (see Supplemental Report tab).  A majority of those surveyed reported that their sales had fallen more than 10 percent below their levels in “normal” times.  The weak economy and uncertainty about the business outlook were widely cited as factors dampening demand for respondents’ products and services.  Most respondents cited little or no difficulty obtaining financing for either long-term commitments (capital investment) or short-term needs (operating expenses).  Moreover, fewer than 10 percent of those surveyed indicated that problems obtaining credit had adversely affected their production or sales.   

    General Business Conditions Index Rises Sharply
    The general business conditions index rebounded from the record low set in March, surging 24 points to -14.7. The fraction of respondents that reported improved conditions rose from 10 percent last month to 24 percent in April, and the percentage that reported worsening conditions fell from 48 percent to 39 percent. Although still negative, the new orders index shot up 41 points to -3.9, with 29 percent of respondents reporting an increase in orders. The shipments index also rose dramatically, climbing from -26.7 to -1.8. The unfilled orders index rose less sharply, advancing 6 points to -18.0. The delivery time index rose several points to -5.6. The inventories index fell for a second consecutive month, dropping 9 points to a record-low -36.0.

    Price and Employment Indexes Are Little Changed
    The prices paid index, at -14.6, was unchanged from March, remaining below zero for a fifth consecutive month. The prices received index rose 6 points to -18.0. The number of employees index remained well below zero but improved to -28.1. The average workweek index fell 5 points to -28.1.

    Six-Month Outlook Improves Markedly
    Future indexes suggested a significant improvement in the six-month outlook compared with readings in the last few months. The future general business conditions index rose 30 points, to 33.1, its highest level since September of last year. Fifty-one percent of respondents—compared with 38 percent in March—expected conditions to be better six months from now. The future new orders and shipments indexes rose to similarly high levels, and the future unfilled orders index turned positive for the first time this year. The future prices paid index remained just above zero, while the future prices received index was just below zero. The future number of employees index climbed 16 points to -4.6, and the future average workweek index rose above zero. The capital spending index advanced 18 points to -1.1, and the technology spending index rose 19 points to -4.5.

    출처 : Federal Reserve Bank of New York



    맞춤검색

    ,
     

    다음은 2009년 4월자 미국 베이지북(Beige Book) 주요내용입니다. 2009년 4월 15일 발표 (현지)

    Summary


    Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas based on information collected on or before April 6, 2009. This document summarizes comments received from business and other contacts outside the Federal Reserve and is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials.


    April 15, 2009

    Reports from the Federal Reserve Banks indicate that overall economic activity contracted further or remained weak. However, five of the twelve Districts noted a moderation in the pace of decline, and several saw signs that activity in some sectors was stabilizing at a low level.

    전반적인 경제 활동은 침체를 지속하고 여전히 약세이지만, 12개 지역 중 5개 지역은 침체 속도가 완화하고 있고 미약하지만 몇몇 산업 섹터 활동은 약한 정도로 완화되는 징후가 나타나고 있습니다. 

    (*주: 베이지북의 주요 관찰 지역은, Districts 는 Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St.Louis, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, San Francisco 입니다.)

    Boston
    New York
    Philadelphia
    Cleveland
    Richmond
    Atlanta
    Chicago
    St. Louis
    Minneapolis
    Kansas City
    Dallas
    San Francisco

    Manufacturing activity weakened across a broad range of industries in most Districts, with only a few exceptions. Nonfinancial service activity continued to contract across Districts. Retail spending remained sluggish, although some Districts noted a slight improvement in sales compared with the previous reporting period. Residential real estate markets continued to be weak. Home prices and construction were still falling in most areas, but better-than-expected buyer traffic led to a scattered pickup in sales in a number of Districts. Nonresidential real estate conditions continued to deteriorate. Difficulty obtaining commercial real estate financing was constraining construction and investment activity. Spending on business travel declined as corporations cut back. Reports on tourism were mixed. Bankers reported tight credit conditions, rising delinquencies, and some deterioration of loan quality.

    Agricultural conditions were generally favorable across Districts, although drought conditions persisted in the Dallas and San Francisco Districts. The Districts reporting on energy said reduced demand, high inventories, and lower prices led to steep cutbacks in oil and natural gas drilling and production activity. The Minneapolis, Kansas City, and Dallas Districts noted declines in employment in the oil and gas extraction industry.

    Downward pressure on prices was reported across Districts. Wage and salary pressures eased as labor markets weakened in all Districts, and many contacts continued to report job cuts and wage and hiring freezes. Employment continued to decline across a range of industries, with only scattered reports of hiring.

    Manufacturing
    Manufacturing activity continued to decline in most Districts and across a wide range of industries. Several reports, however, noted that the pace of decline had slowed or that factory activity had stabilized. The Boston, Philadelphia, Richmond, Atlanta, St. Louis, Minneapolis, and San Francisco Districts cited decreases in production. The Chicago and Kansas City Districts said declines in production had slowed. The Cleveland District noted some leveling off in declines in new orders, and the New York and Dallas Districts noted that demand was beginning to bottom out following steep declines. Orders and shipments of capital goods, autos, paper, and construction-related equipment and products such as metals, wood products, lumber and electrical machinery remained mostly sluggish and below year-ago levels, with the Chicago District noting an increase in order cancellations and deferral requests. Aircraft makers in the Chicago District noted declines in demand, while aerospace manufacturers in the San Francisco District reported that a drop in airline passenger traffic and cargo capacity had spurred order cancellations and delivery deferrals.

    In contrast, orders and sales of high-tech equipment firmed somewhat at very weak levels in the Dallas and San Francisco Districts. Defense firms in the Boston and Cleveland Districts reported solid activity. Food manufacturers saw sales gains in the Philadelphia and San Francisco Districts, and a food manufacturer in the St. Louis District noted plans to open a new plant. Pharmaceutical firms in the Boston and Chicago Districts continued to see solid demand; petrochemical producers in the Dallas District noted a slight turnaround in operating rates.

    Manufacturers' assessments of future factory activity improved marginally over the survey period as well, with contacts in the Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Kansas City Districts noting a slight upturn in the outlook for production and sales. Capital expenditure plans remained on hold across most regions, and the Boston, Philadelphia, and Cleveland Districts noted cuts in capital budgets.

    Nonfinancial Services
    Districts that report on nonfinancial business services said demand continued to fall across most industries. Providers of health-care services noted further declines in activity, and contacts in several Districts noted demand for professional services, such as architecture, business consulting and legal services, remained weak. Demand for IT services was mixed. Among service firms, there were reports of customers delaying payments or asking for price reductions, and receivables were harder to collect.

    While there were scattered reports of optimism, temporary staffing firms generally continued to report weak conditions. Firms in the Dallas District were not renewing contracts on current personnel, and the New York District characterized the supply of available workers as "inexhaustible."

    Shipping activity continued to fall over the past six weeks as both domestic and international demand remained dampened. Contacts in several Districts said shipments of construction-related manufacturing products continued to drop at a substantial pace.

    Consumer Spending and Tourism
    Consumer spending remained generally weak. However, several Districts said sales rose slightly or declines moderated compared with the previous survey period. In particular, the Boston, Cleveland, and Chicago Districts reported an improvement in sales. Purchases of big ticket and luxury items continued to decline while spending on food and necessities fared better. The Philadelphia, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts reported that consumers were looking for value, and were opting for lower-priced, private label products over higher-priced alternatives. Retailers kept inventories lean, in line with the slow pace of sales, and most expect demand to stay at current low levels over the next few months.

    Auto dealers continued to struggle, and overall vehicle sales were sluggish in all reporting Districts as weak demand and tight credit continued to limit sales. Used vehicle sales improved slightly in the Boston, Cleveland, Kansas City, and San Francisco Districts, but new car sales remained feeble. Dealers in the Philadelphia District reported difficulty in obtaining financing for inventory purchases, and a few dealerships in the St. Louis District went out of business, but dealers in the Cleveland District reported minimal problems with floor-plan financing. While auto dealers in the Boston, Cleveland, and Kansas City Districts noted some improvements in the outlook, those in the Philadelphia and Dallas Districts expect continued weakness.

    Travel and tourism activity contracted further in several reporting Districts, as households and businesses continued to scale back on discretionary and travel spending. Tourist spending in the New York, Minneapolis, and San Francisco Districts saw double-digit declines compared with the prior year. Airlines in the Dallas District and hotel contacts in the Kansas City District reported weakening demand for business travel, while the Atlanta District noted convention cancellations. Restaurants continued to see sluggish activity in the Kansas City and San Francisco Districts, which prompted further layoffs and closures in the latter region. In contrast, mountain resorts in the Richmond District said ski season demand was on par with last year, and cruise liners in the Atlanta District reported that deep discounting spurred bookings.

    Real Estate and Construction
    Housing markets remained depressed overall, but there were some signs that conditions may be stabilizing. Many Districts said factors such as homebuyer tax credits, low mortgage rates, and more affordable prices led to a rising number of potential buyers. The Richmond, Atlanta, Minneapolis, Kansas City, and San Francisco Districts noted a modest improvement in sales in some areas.

    New home construction activity fell further, however, as inventories remained elevated. Nonetheless, several Districts, including Atlanta and Kansas City, said that inventories of unsold homes had turned down slightly.

    Home prices continued to decline in most Districts, although a few reports noted that prices were unchanged or that the pace of decline had eased. Low mortgage rates were fueling refinancing activity. Outlooks for the housing sector were generally more optimistic than in earlier surveys, with respondents hopeful that increased buyer interest would lead to better sales.

    Nonresidential real estate conditions continued to deteriorate over the past six weeks. Demand for office, industrial and retail space continued to fall, and there were reports of increases in sublease space. Rental concessions were rising. Property values moved lower as reality "set in." Construction activity continues to slow, and several Districts noted increased postponement of both private and public projects. Nonresidential construction is expected to decline through year-end, although there were some hopeful reports that the stimulus package may lead to some improvement.

    Commercial real estate investment activity weakened further. Contacts said a decline in credit availability and markdowns on commercial property were keeping buyers and sellers on the sidelines.

    Banking and Finance
    Most Districts reported weaker loan demand overall, but the reports were mixed across loan categories. In particular, the New York, Richmond, and Kansas City Districts noted an increase in residential real estate loans. Additionally, residential refinancing activity remained brisk, although the loan process was taking longer due to more stringent appraisals and underwriting standards. Demand for commercial and industrial loans was weak, and there were several reports that business borrowers were postponing capital expenditures. Commercial real estate lending continued to decline. Credit availability generally remained very tight across regions. A number of Districts reported deteriorating loan quality and rising delinquencies for all types of loan categories. In particular, several reports noted more stringent requirements for commercial real estate loans due to worries of worsening loan quality in the sector.

    Agriculture and Natural Resources
    Most regions reported improved planting and growing conditions, with the exception of the Dallas and San Francisco Districts, which are experiencing ongoing drought. Although beneficial, rainfall delayed field preparations for spring planting in the Richmond and Chicago Districts. Contacts in the Chicago District reported that producers had benefited from falling input prices, which are helping farmers obtain loans. Livestock producers in the Chicago, Kansas City, and Dallas Districts continued to be challenged by weak demand and low prices. Low milk prices have resulted in significant financial losses for dairy farmers in the Chicago and Dallas Districts, and have caused producers in the latter region to reduce their dairy cow herds.

    Reduced demand, rising inventories, and lower prices for oil and natural gas led to further declines in energy sector activity. Drilling activity fell sharply in the Minneapolis, Kansas City, and Dallas Districts; respondents in the Atlanta and San Francisco Districts reported decreases as well. The Dallas District noted that the number of working U.S. rigs contracted by 300, and more than half of the decline was in Texas. In contrast, production was stable in the Cleveland District; gold mining is strong and wind energy projects moved ahead as planned in the Minneapolis District. Consistent with falling activity, the Minneapolis, Kansas City, and Dallas Districts noted further layoffs in oil and gas extraction. Looking forward, energy contacts in the Cleveland District said that they intend to lower capital spending over the next few months.

    Prices
    Districts that report on prices noted downward pressures. Oil prices rose during the survey period, although most other commodity prices were stable to down. Manufacturers noted declines in the cost of raw materials and inputs, and product prices were generally said to be steady to down. Significant discounting was reported among retailers, and there were numerous examples of service providers reducing fees. In particular, accounting and legal firms in the Dallas District were responding to customer requests for lower fees, while the San Francisco District found prices were declining for professional services and lodging. Transportation service contacts noted a reduction in prices.

    Labor Markets and Wages
    Labor market conditions were weak and reports of layoffs, reductions in work hours, temporary factory shutdowns, branch closures and hiring freezes remained widespread across Districts. Staffing firms in the New York, Cleveland, Richmond, Chicago, and Dallas Districts reported that demand for workers remained sluggish. The manufacturing and energy extraction sectors were the most affected but there were numerous reports of job cuts in the retail and services industries as well. The St. Louis District reported payroll declines in information and medical services, while the Cleveland District cited layoffs in transportation and financial services. The Dallas District noted further cuts in the real estate and construction industry; layoffs at major financial firms continued in the New York District; and the Philadelphia District reported that unpaid furloughs had been instituted by state and local governments. In contrast, Districts including Cleveland, Chicago, and Minneapolis reported some hiring in healthcare. Contacts in the Richmond District noted solid demand for technically-skilled professionals and IT and office-support workers. The Chicago and Dallas Districts saw a slight uptick in hiring of finance personnel due to the sharp increase in mortgage refinance activity. The St. Louis District reported that a food manufacturer and some wood and plastic manufacturers planned on expanding their operations and hiring additional staff. The employment outlook is generally bleak. Contacts in several Districts have instituted hiring freezes and anticipate further cuts in jobs and work hours.

    Continuing layoffs, furloughs and hiring freezes kept wage pressures minimal. Contacts from a broad range of industries reported pay freezes, with some noting salary reductions. The Minneapolis District reported that unionized faculty at Minnesota's technical and community colleges had tentatively accepted a two-year pay freeze. Contacts in the Boston, Philadelphia, Richmond, Chicago, and San Francisco Districts reported cuts in certain non-wage employment benefits, including cuts in bonuses, elimination or suspension of employer contributions to employee retirement programs, and increases in copayments on employer sponsored healthcare plans.



    2009

    Summary of Commentary on
    Current Economic Conditions
    by Federal Reserve District

    Commonly known as the Beige Book, this report is published eight times per year. Each Federal Reserve Bank gathers anecdotal information on current economic conditions in its District through reports from Bank and Branch directors and interviews with key business contacts, economists, market experts, and other sources. The Beige Book summarizes this information by District and sector. An overall summary of the twelve district reports is prepared by a designated Federal Reserve Bank on a rotating basis.

    2009
    January

    14

    HTML

    183 KB PDF


    February


    March

    4

    HTML

    187 KB PDF


    April

    15

    HTML

    260 KB PDF


    May


    June

    10



    July

    29



    August


    September

    9



    October

    21



    November


    December

    2



    2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 | 1996

    1970 - present (on the web site of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)



    맞춤검색

    ,

    (★ 검색으로 결과를 얻어보세요. Let's Search ★)



    --> I'm Lucky 최근글 <--