미국 경기선행지수가 2009년 3월 -0.3% 감소했다고 컨퍼런스보드가 2009년 4월 20일 현지 발표하였습니다.
둔화세가 지속되고 있고, 본격적인 회복세는 아직 이르다고 볼 수 있습니다.
LEI = 컨퍼런스보드 경기선행지수 (미국)
CEI = 컨퍼런스보드 경기신뢰지수 (미국)
Released: Monday, April 20, 2009
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index™ (LEI) for the U.S. decreased 0.3 percent, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index™ (CEI) decreased 0.4 percent and The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index™ (LAG) decreased 0.4 percent in March.
The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. declined again in March, and the index has not risen in the past nine months. Building permits, stock prices, and the index of supplier deliveries made large negative contributions to the index this month, more than offsetting continued positive contributions from real money supply and the yield spread. In the six months through March, the index fell 2.5 percent (about a -4.9 percent annual rate), faster than the decrease of 1.4 percent (a -2.7 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. In addition, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have remained widespread in recent months.
The Conference Board CEI for the U.S. continued falling in March, driven by further declines in employment and industrial production. In the six months through March, the index decreased 3.0 percent (about a -5.8 percent annual rate), faster than the decline of 2.0 percent (a -3.9 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. In March, the lagging economic index for the U.S. fell by the same amount as the coincident economic index, and as a result, the coincident to lagging ratio remained unchanged. Meanwhile, real GDP contracted at an average annual rate of 3.5 percent in the second half of 2008 (including a decline of 6.3 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter).
The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. remains on a general downtrend that began in July 2007, with widespread weaknesses among its components. However, its rate of decline has moderated somewhat this year. The Conference Board CEI for the U.S. has been on a declining trend since November 2007, although it has also decreased at a modestly slower pace in recent months. All in all, the behavior of the composite economic indexes suggests that the economic recession that started in December 2007 will continue in the near term, but that the contraction in activity could become less severe in upcoming months.
출처 :
US Conference Board
