엠파이어 스테이트 제조업 지수는
소비, 고용, 투자 등 미래 경제활동의 전망을 위한 선행 경기지표로 활용되고 있습니다.
엠파이어 스테이트 제조업 지수(Empire State Manufacturing Index)는 New York주 지역의
약 200개 제조업체에 대한 체감경기에 대한 조사치를 합산하여 발표됩니다.

이하는, 뉴욕연방은행이 발표한 엠파이어 스테이트 제조업 지수 6월 동향에 대한 발표자료 입니다.

June 2009 Report

Survey Indicators
Seasonally Adjusted

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers continued to deteriorate in June, at a moderately faster pace than in May. The general business conditions index fell 5 points, to -9.4. The new orders index remained negative and near last month’s level, while the shipments index fell 6 points to -4.8. The inventories index declined and remained well below zero. Price indexes were negative but modestly higher than in May, and employment indexes stayed below zero. Future indexes were generally positive and continued to rise, conveying an expectation that conditions should improve over the next six months. Both the capital spending and technology spending indexes rose into positive territory for the first time since October of last year.

In a series of supplementary questions, manufacturers were asked about their capital spending plans for 2009 relative to their actual spending for 2008, both overall and for a few broad categories of capital (see Supplemental Report tab). Similar questions had been asked in June 2008 and June 2007. In the current survey, 56 percent of respondents reported reductions in overall capital spending in 2009, while just 20 percent reported increases. These results contrast fairly markedly with those of the June 2008 survey, which showed nearly as many respondents reporting increases (32 percent) as decreases (36 percent). The 2009 results differ even more sharply from those of the 2007 survey, which showed far more firms reporting increases than reductions. Respondents were also asked about the extent to which various factors contributed positively or negatively to their planned changes in capital spending. Nearly 55 percent of those surveyed cited sales and demand trends as a negative factor, while just 21 percent cited these trends as a positive factor. The other major driver of spending reductions for 2009 was cash flow or balance sheet position. Estimated capital spending for calendar 2009 across all respondent firms averaged $1.9 million, down from $2.5 million in 2008—a 24 percent decline—while the median decreased from $500,000 to just $275,000, a drop of more than 42 percent.

General Business Conditions Index Falls Modestly
The general business conditions index fell several points from last month’s level, dropping to -9.4, but remained well above the string of deeply negative readings observed in the October-March period. This month, 28 percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved, compared with 23 percent last month, while 38 percent of respondents reported that conditions had worsened, up from 28 percent. After rising above zero last month, the shipments index retreated to -4.8. The unfilled orders index, at -10.3, was little changed. The delivery time index rose a few points to -10.3, and the inventories index fell to -25.3.

Prices Continue to Fall, but Pace Slows
The indexes for prices paid and prices received were negative for a seventh consecutive month, but they rose from May levels. The prices paid index advanced from -11.4 to -5.8, with 10 percent of respondents reporting higher prices and 16 percent reporting lower prices. The prices received index climbed 15 points to -12.6, with 6 percent of respondents receiving higher prices and 18 percent receiving lower prices. Employment indexes were little changed from last month’s low levels. The index for number of employees inched up 2 points, to -21.8, while the average workweek index, at -21.8, was little changed.

Six-Month Outlook Continues to Improve
Future indexes continued to rise, conveying an expectation that conditions should get better over the next six months. The future general business conditions index advanced 4 points, to 47.8, its highest level in nearly two years; 61 percent of respondents expected conditions to improve over the next six months. The future new orders index, at 45.8, suggested similar optimism, as did the future shipments index at 48.7. Input prices were expected to rise, while selling prices were expected to fall; the future prices paid index was positive, at 10.3, and the future prices received index was negative, at -5.8. The index for future number of employees surged from 0.7 last month to 16.1—a fourth consecutive monthly increase from February’s record-low
-29.3. The capital expenditures index rose into positive territory for the first time since October, climbing 13 points to 11.5, and the technology spending index also rose above zero, to 1.2.

다우존스 지수 일간 흐름 (stockcharts.com)

미국의 경제상황, 경기동향을 살펴보는 지표가 되는 미국 FRB의 베이지북, Beige Book 2009년 6월호가, 현지 6월 10일 발표되었습니다.

베이지북은 각 지역 연방은행들이 수집한 미국 12개 지역의 경기동향을 요약한 자료로 미국 경제상황을 밝혀주는 핵심지표로 작용하고 있습니다. 베이지북은 1년에 8차례 발간됩니다.

이전 베이지북은 2009년 4월 15일(현지) 발간되었고, 다음 베이지북은 2009년 7월 29일 발간됩니다.

이들 12개 지역은 Boston, New Yor, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, San Francisco 입니다.

이번 베이지북의 내용을 보면, 경기는 여전히 약화, 침체상황에 머무르고 있는 가운데, 5/12개 지역에서는 침체 흐름이 완화되어가는 신호도 나타나고 있다고 보고하고 있습니다.  (*이하 거친 번역본 보기 클릭)

fullreport20090610.pdf

첨부 : 보고서 전문 파일

Summary

Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve District Banks indicate that economic conditions remained weak or deteriorated further during the period from mid-April through May. However, five of the Districts noted that the downward trend is showing signs of moderating. Further, contacts from several Districts said that their expectations have improved, though they do not see a substantial increase in economic activity through the end of the year.

Manufacturing activity declined or remained at a low level across most Districts. However, several Districts also reported that the outlook by manufacturers has improved somewhat. Demand for nonfinancial services contracted across Districts reporting on this segment. Retail spending remained soft as consumers focused on purchasing less expensive necessities and shied away from buying luxury goods. New car purchases remained depressed, with several Districts indicating that tight credit conditions were hampering auto sales. Travel and tourism activity also declined. A number of Districts reported an uptick in home sales, and many said that new home construction appeared to have stabilized at very low levels. Vacancy rates for commercial properties were rising in many parts of the country, while developers are finding financing for new commercial projects increasingly difficult to obtain. Most Districts reported that overall lending activity was stable or weak, but with mixed results across loan categories. Credit conditions remained stringent or tightened further. Energy activity continued to weaken across most Districts, and demand for natural resources remained depressed. Planting and growing conditions varied across Districts as did agricultural input costs.

Labor market conditions continued to be weak across the country, with wages generally remaining flat or falling. Two Districts also mentioned employers' plans to scale back employee benefit programs. The Atlanta, Chicago, and St. Louis Districts reported that some state and local governments faced hiring freezes or outright job cuts. While manufacturing employment levels remained low, some Districts saw signs that job losses may be moderating. With few exceptions, Districts reported that prices at all stages of production were generally flat or falling. The notable exception to the downward pressure on prices was the widely-reported increase in oil prices.

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부분별 내용

Manufacturing
Manufacturing declined or remained weak in most Districts. Boston, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Chicago, St. Louis, and Minneapolis reported declines in activity, while production remained at very low levels in the San Francisco District. Atlanta and Kansas City indicated that the pace of the decline in manufacturing had moderated or slowed. New York characterized the sector as having stabilized, while Dallas mentioned signs of stabilization. In contrast, Richmond reported a rise in both new orders and shipments.

Philadelphia reported that the primary metals, machinery, and electrical equipment industries remain especially weak, and Cleveland noted that steel shipments continue at depressed levels. Chicago commented that, apart from Asia, export demand was weak. Dallas reported that construction-related manufacturing and the petrochemicals markets remained weak, while San Francisco stated that activity in the wood products industry was depressed and that demand in the metal fabrication industry was extremely weak. Cleveland, Chicago, St. Louis and Dallas all noted weakness in automotive-related industries. In contrast, Boston, Dallas, and San Francisco indicated that high technology industries experienced some increase in activity, and Richmond noted strengthening across a number of industries. Several Districts also reported that the outlook of manufacturers has improved somewhat, though Boston, Cleveland and Kansas City mentioned that capital spending was weak.

Nonfinancial Services
Districts reporting on nonfinancial services indicated that for the most part activity continued to decline. Looking at some specific sectors, providers of health-care services spoke of job cuts and lower patient volumes. Activity continued to weaken or remain soft for providers of professional services such as accounting, architecture, business consulting, and legal services. In contrast, San Francisco reported a substantial pickup in real estate services such as title insurance due to an increase in home refinancing. Activity in IT services varied, with New England firms experiencing declining revenue and business, while demand for IT workers in Richmond and Chicago was reportedly on the rise. High-tech service sales in Kansas City increased moderately, and demand there is expected to strengthen.

Transportation contacts in most Districts say that shipping volume either remained at low levels or continued to decline. Contacts in the Cleveland District generally stated that while shipping volumes remain down across all market segments, the steep drop-off earlier this year has abated. Cargo and container trade in Richmond and Dallas remains at low levels, but contacts noted signs of improvement in import and export activity.

Consumer Spending and Tourism
Consumer spending remained soft as households focused on purchasing less expensive necessities. Reports from New York, Minneapolis, and Dallas indicated a modest rise in sales, while retail purchases in Boston, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Atlanta, Kansas City, and San Francisco were flat or mixed. The other Districts experienced declining sales. Several Districts reported that discounters have seen their sales increase, while purchases of luxury goods continued to weaken. Respondents from Boston, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Atlanta, St. Louis, Kansas City, and Dallas expect soft consumer sales to persist. Purchases of new cars remained depressed across most Districts. However, Chicago saw a small increase in auto sales, which respondents attributed to incentives and promotions. New York, Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Kansas City indicated that tight credit conditions hampered auto sales. Reports from Cleveland, Chicago, Kansas City, and San Francisco indicate that sales of used vehicles are rising.

Travel and tourism activity declined, and vacationers are tending to spend less. Business at Manhattan hotels and Broadway theaters, which had increased modestly in April, fell back in May. Bookings at resorts in the Richmond District are starting to pick up; however, they are weaker than a year ago. In the Atlanta District, promotions and discounting were said to have played a significant role in keeping theme park attendance and cruise bookings stable. Contacts from the San Francisco District said that pronounced declines in hotel occupancy rates, especially luxury hotels, were ongoing, while travel in some parts of the District remained down at double-digit rates from the previous year. However, a report from the Minneapolis District indicated that summer reservations at campgrounds and resorts are strong.

Real Estate and Construction
Although the residential real estate market remains weak, agents in the New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Chicago, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts reported an uptick in home sales. The reasons cited include seasonal factors, low interest rates, declining house prices, and tax credits for first-time buyers. Much of the sales increase was found in the lower-priced end of the market. New home construction appeared to have stabilized at very low levels in Philadelphia, Cleveland, Atlanta, Chicago, Minneapolis, Dallas, and San Francisco, although Kansas City reported an uptick in construction. Home inventories were trending down in Philadelphia, Richmond, Atlanta, Kansas City, and Dallas. However, Chicago reported that inventories remain elevated.

Commercial real estate markets continued to weaken across all Districts. Vacancy rates for commercial properties were rising in many regions of the Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, Minneapolis, Kansas City, and San Francisco Districts putting downward pressure on rents. Atlanta, Chicago, and St. Louis reported new construction projects being postponed or cancelled, and new construction in the New York, Philadelphia, and Minneapolis Districts dropped substantially. Eight Districts cited difficulty in obtaining financing as one of the primary reasons for delaying or stopping construction of new developments and for limiting sales of existing properties.

Banking and Finance
Most Districts reported that overall lending activity was stable or weak, but with mixed results across loan categories. Demand for commercial and industrial loans fell in New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, and San Francisco. Boston, Chicago, St. Louis, Kansas City, and Dallas singled out commercial real estate as experiencing weakening demand. Boston reported that commercial real estate transactions were increasingly scarce, and Dallas noted that loan renewals in this category required more borrower equity and smaller loan sizes than in the past. Atlanta and Chicago reported limited credit availability for vehicle dealers and other businesses tied to the auto industry. Demand for mortgage refinancing loans was mixed. New York and Cleveland reported strong demand for these loans, while Richmond noted a waning of residential refinancing demand due to rising interest rates. Richmond also reported an uptick in demand for purchase mortgage loans.

Most Districts said that credit conditions remained stringent or tightened further. Reports from Philadelphia and Cleveland expected that credit will remain tight in the near term. The credit quality of loan applicants and existing clients showed deterioration in Philadelphia, Richmond, Cleveland, and Dallas, although Richmond noted that the rate of deterioration has slowed. New York and Cleveland said that delinquencies had increased across numerous loan categories, particularly those tied to real estate. Cleveland and Kansas City reported increases in bank deposits, with the latter attributing the rise to uncertainty about financial markets.

Agriculture and Natural Resources
Planting and growing conditions varied across Districts, with favorable developments in Richmond, Kansas City, and Dallas. However, a drought hindered Oklahoma's wheat crop and livestock production in Southwest Texas. Above-normal rainfall delayed planting of major crops in the Atlanta, Chicago, and St. Louis Districts. Storms in the Minneapolis District destroyed fields and led to higher-than-normal deaths in calving. The Chicago and Kansas City Districts both said that lower cattle and hog prices along with higher feed costs have worsened the income prospect for livestock producers. Input costs in San Francisco, though, have stayed at moderate levels, and sales have continued at a solid pace for most types of agricultural output.

Energy activity continued to weaken across most Districts, and demand for natural resources remained depressed. Coal production and prices fell substantially in the Cleveland District. The number of drilling rigs operating in the Kansas City District is sixty percent below its peak last fall, and working rigs in Texas have fallen fifteen percent over the past six weeks as global demand for oil remains low. However, one production facility in the Gulf of Mexico just opened in May and is expected to make a major contribution to oil and natural gas output once it reaches full production. Wind energy projects expanded in the Kansas City and Minneapolis Districts.

Employment and Wages
Labor market conditions continued to be weak across the country, with wages generally remaining flat or falling. Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco reported that businesses were cutting or freezing wages, and Boston cited wage freezes in the retail sector. The Chicago District reported that the downward pressure on wages was abating somewhat there, as firms turned instead to cutting hours or jobs outright to contain labor costs. Firms in the Atlanta and Dallas Districts also reported having to cut hours to reduce costs. In addition, the Boston and San Francisco Districts also mentioned employers' plans to scale back employee benefit programs.

In the service sector, the Boston and Cleveland Districts reported relatively stable retail employment, while the Richmond District reported continuing reductions. The Richmond, Chicago, Minneapolis, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts noted that firms providing professional services, such as accounting, consulting, and legal services, continued to report staff reductions, while the Boston and New York Districts reported weak demand for financial services workers, with ongoing layoffs at large financial firms. The Boston and Richmond Districts also reported reductions in information technology jobs. The Atlanta, Chicago, and St. Louis Districts reported that some state and local governments faced hiring freezes or outright job cuts.

In manufacturing, while employment levels remained low, several Districts saw signs that job losses may be moderating. The New York, Richmond, Atlanta, and Kansas City Districts all reported less severe employment reductions in recent weeks, with some optimism that manufacturing employment levels may soon stabilize. This, however, was balanced by reports of ongoing manufacturing employment losses in the Boston, Cleveland, Chicago, and St. Louis Districts.

Staffing services firms reported some modest signs of recovery, with the Boston, Atlanta, Chicago, and Dallas Districts all reporting some stabilization in activity or a slight improvement in employment trends. The Cleveland and Richmond Districts, however, continued to report that activity among staffing services firms was weak.

Prices
With few exceptions, the District Banks reported that prices at all stages of production were generally flat or falling. Manufacturers in Philadelphia, Cleveland, Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas, and San Francisco said that overall input prices were stable or declining, although in Kansas City those declines were said to be moderating. In contrast, Richmond noted that prices of raw materials had increased at a quicker pace. The notable exception to the downward pressure on input prices was oil. Increases in oil prices were widely reported. However, prices for other energy commodities, like coal and natural gas, remained relatively low. Other exceptions to the prevailing price trend included agricultural items. The Atlanta and Kansas City Districts reported some increases in agricultural prices, with the latter noting that these higher prices were partly driven by global weather concerns. The Chicago and Kansas City Districts also reported higher prices for livestock feed. In construction, the Philadelphia, Kansas City, and Minneapolis Districts reported higher prices for some building supplies, perhaps related to increase in petroleum prices.

Reports from a number of Districts indicated that pricing at retail remains very soft. The Cleveland and Dallas Districts indicated that retail prices were stable, San Francisco said that they were held down by discounting, and Philadelphia noted that steady input costs were holding retail prices in check. In Kansas City, retail prices were declining and expected to soften further. Richmond's retail prices continued to rise, albeit more slowly than in the past.


* 베이지북(Beige Book)
Commonly known as the Beige Book, this report is published eight times per year. Each Federal Reserve Bank gathers anecdotal information on current economic conditions in its District through reports from Bank and Branch directors and interviews with key business contacts, economists, market experts, and other sources. The Beige Book summarizes this information by District and sector. An overall summary of the twelve district reports is prepared by a designated Federal Reserve Bank on a rotating basis.

 

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers continued to deteriorate in April, but at a much slower pace than in recent months. The general business conditions index climbed 24 points from its March record low, to -14.7. The new orders index shot up 41 points to a reading just below zero, and the shipments index rose 25 points, also reaching a level near zero. The inventories index continued to fall, hitting a record low -36.0.  The indexes for both prices paid and prices received remained negative. The index for number of employees, while negative, improved in April, but the average workweek index fell. Future indexes were much improved, with the future general business conditions, new orders, and shipments indexes rising sharply to levels not seen since September of last year. The capital spending and technology spending indexes remained below zero, although they were considerably above last month’s levels.

In response to a series of supplementary questions, manufacturers generally indicated that factors other than tight credit were largely responsible for weakness in sales (see Supplemental Report tab).  A majority of those surveyed reported that their sales had fallen more than 10 percent below their levels in “normal” times.  The weak economy and uncertainty about the business outlook were widely cited as factors dampening demand for respondents’ products and services.  Most respondents cited little or no difficulty obtaining financing for either long-term commitments (capital investment) or short-term needs (operating expenses).  Moreover, fewer than 10 percent of those surveyed indicated that problems obtaining credit had adversely affected their production or sales.   

General Business Conditions Index Rises Sharply
The general business conditions index rebounded from the record low set in March, surging 24 points to -14.7. The fraction of respondents that reported improved conditions rose from 10 percent last month to 24 percent in April, and the percentage that reported worsening conditions fell from 48 percent to 39 percent. Although still negative, the new orders index shot up 41 points to -3.9, with 29 percent of respondents reporting an increase in orders. The shipments index also rose dramatically, climbing from -26.7 to -1.8. The unfilled orders index rose less sharply, advancing 6 points to -18.0. The delivery time index rose several points to -5.6. The inventories index fell for a second consecutive month, dropping 9 points to a record-low -36.0.

Price and Employment Indexes Are Little Changed
The prices paid index, at -14.6, was unchanged from March, remaining below zero for a fifth consecutive month. The prices received index rose 6 points to -18.0. The number of employees index remained well below zero but improved to -28.1. The average workweek index fell 5 points to -28.1.

Six-Month Outlook Improves Markedly
Future indexes suggested a significant improvement in the six-month outlook compared with readings in the last few months. The future general business conditions index rose 30 points, to 33.1, its highest level since September of last year. Fifty-one percent of respondents—compared with 38 percent in March—expected conditions to be better six months from now. The future new orders and shipments indexes rose to similarly high levels, and the future unfilled orders index turned positive for the first time this year. The future prices paid index remained just above zero, while the future prices received index was just below zero. The future number of employees index climbed 16 points to -4.6, and the future average workweek index rose above zero. The capital spending index advanced 18 points to -1.1, and the technology spending index rose 19 points to -4.5.

출처 : Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Reports from the Federal Reserve Banks indicate that overall economic activity contracted further or remained weak. However, five of the twelve Districts noted a moderation in the pace of decline, and several saw signs that activity in some sectors was stabilizing at a low level.

전반적인 경제 활동은 침체를 지속하고 여전히 약세이지만, 12개 지역 중 5개 지역은 침체 속도가 완화하고 있고 미약하지만 몇몇 산업 섹터 활동은 약한 정도로 완화되는 징후가 나타나고 있습니다. 

(*주: 베이지북의 주요 관찰 지역은, Districts 는 Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St.Louis, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, San Francisco 입니다.)

Boston
New York
Philadelphia
Cleveland
Richmond
Atlanta
Chicago
St. Louis
Minneapolis
Kansas City
Dallas
San Francisco

Manufacturing activity weakened across a broad range of industries in most Districts, with only a few exceptions. Nonfinancial service activity continued to contract across Districts. Retail spending remained sluggish, although some Districts noted a slight improvement in sales compared with the previous reporting period. Residential real estate markets continued to be weak. Home prices and construction were still falling in most areas, but better-than-expected buyer traffic led to a scattered pickup in sales in a number of Districts. Nonresidential real estate conditions continued to deteriorate. Difficulty obtaining commercial real estate financing was constraining construction and investment activity. Spending on business travel declined as corporations cut back. Reports on tourism were mixed. Bankers reported tight credit conditions, rising delinquencies, and some deterioration of loan quality.

Agricultural conditions were generally favorable across Districts, although drought conditions persisted in the Dallas and San Francisco Districts. The Districts reporting on energy said reduced demand, high inventories, and lower prices led to steep cutbacks in oil and natural gas drilling and production activity. The Minneapolis, Kansas City, and Dallas Districts noted declines in employment in the oil and gas extraction industry.

Downward pressure on prices was reported across Districts. Wage and salary pressures eased as labor markets weakened in all Districts, and many contacts continued to report job cuts and wage and hiring freezes. Employment continued to decline across a range of industries, with only scattered reports of hiring.

Manufacturing
Manufacturing activity continued to decline in most Districts and across a wide range of industries. Several reports, however, noted that the pace of decline had slowed or that factory activity had stabilized. The Boston, Philadelphia, Richmond, Atlanta, St. Louis, Minneapolis, and San Francisco Districts cited decreases in production. The Chicago and Kansas City Districts said declines in production had slowed. The Cleveland District noted some leveling off in declines in new orders, and the New York and Dallas Districts noted that demand was beginning to bottom out following steep declines. Orders and shipments of capital goods, autos, paper, and construction-related equipment and products such as metals, wood products, lumber and electrical machinery remained mostly sluggish and below year-ago levels, with the Chicago District noting an increase in order cancellations and deferral requests. Aircraft makers in the Chicago District noted declines in demand, while aerospace manufacturers in the San Francisco District reported that a drop in airline passenger traffic and cargo capacity had spurred order cancellations and delivery deferrals.

In contrast, orders and sales of high-tech equipment firmed somewhat at very weak levels in the Dallas and San Francisco Districts. Defense firms in the Boston and Cleveland Districts reported solid activity. Food manufacturers saw sales gains in the Philadelphia and San Francisco Districts, and a food manufacturer in the St. Louis District noted plans to open a new plant. Pharmaceutical firms in the Boston and Chicago Districts continued to see solid demand; petrochemical producers in the Dallas District noted a slight turnaround in operating rates.

Manufacturers' assessments of future factory activity improved marginally over the survey period as well, with contacts in the Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Kansas City Districts noting a slight upturn in the outlook for production and sales. Capital expenditure plans remained on hold across most regions, and the Boston, Philadelphia, and Cleveland Districts noted cuts in capital budgets.

Nonfinancial Services
Districts that report on nonfinancial business services said demand continued to fall across most industries. Providers of health-care services noted further declines in activity, and contacts in several Districts noted demand for professional services, such as architecture, business consulting and legal services, remained weak. Demand for IT services was mixed. Among service firms, there were reports of customers delaying payments or asking for price reductions, and receivables were harder to collect.

While there were scattered reports of optimism, temporary staffing firms generally continued to report weak conditions. Firms in the Dallas District were not renewing contracts on current personnel, and the New York District characterized the supply of available workers as "inexhaustible."

Shipping activity continued to fall over the past six weeks as both domestic and international demand remained dampened. Contacts in several Districts said shipments of construction-related manufacturing products continued to drop at a substantial pace.

Consumer Spending and Tourism
Consumer spending remained generally weak. However, several Districts said sales rose slightly or declines moderated compared with the previous survey period. In particular, the Boston, Cleveland, and Chicago Districts reported an improvement in sales. Purchases of big ticket and luxury items continued to decline while spending on food and necessities fared better. The Philadelphia, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts reported that consumers were looking for value, and were opting for lower-priced, private label products over higher-priced alternatives. Retailers kept inventories lean, in line with the slow pace of sales, and most expect demand to stay at current low levels over the next few months.

Auto dealers continued to struggle, and overall vehicle sales were sluggish in all reporting Districts as weak demand and tight credit continued to limit sales. Used vehicle sales improved slightly in the Boston, Cleveland, Kansas City, and San Francisco Districts, but new car sales remained feeble. Dealers in the Philadelphia District reported difficulty in obtaining financing for inventory purchases, and a few dealerships in the St. Louis District went out of business, but dealers in the Cleveland District reported minimal problems with floor-plan financing. While auto dealers in the Boston, Cleveland, and Kansas City Districts noted some improvements in the outlook, those in the Philadelphia and Dallas Districts expect continued weakness.

Travel and tourism activity contracted further in several reporting Districts, as households and businesses continued to scale back on discretionary and travel spending. Tourist spending in the New York, Minneapolis, and San Francisco Districts saw double-digit declines compared with the prior year. Airlines in the Dallas District and hotel contacts in the Kansas City District reported weakening demand for business travel, while the Atlanta District noted convention cancellations. Restaurants continued to see sluggish activity in the Kansas City and San Francisco Districts, which prompted further layoffs and closures in the latter region. In contrast, mountain resorts in the Richmond District said ski season demand was on par with last year, and cruise liners in the Atlanta District reported that deep discounting spurred bookings.

Real Estate and Construction
Housing markets remained depressed overall, but there were some signs that conditions may be stabilizing. Many Districts said factors such as homebuyer tax credits, low mortgage rates, and more affordable prices led to a rising number of potential buyers. The Richmond, Atlanta, Minneapolis, Kansas City, and San Francisco Districts noted a modest improvement in sales in some areas.

New home construction activity fell further, however, as inventories remained elevated. Nonetheless, several Districts, including Atlanta and Kansas City, said that inventories of unsold homes had turned down slightly.

Home prices continued to decline in most Districts, although a few reports noted that prices were unchanged or that the pace of decline had eased. Low mortgage rates were fueling refinancing activity. Outlooks for the housing sector were generally more optimistic than in earlier surveys, with respondents hopeful that increased buyer interest would lead to better sales.

Nonresidential real estate conditions continued to deteriorate over the past six weeks. Demand for office, industrial and retail space continued to fall, and there were reports of increases in sublease space. Rental concessions were rising. Property values moved lower as reality "set in." Construction activity continues to slow, and several Districts noted increased postponement of both private and public projects. Nonresidential construction is expected to decline through year-end, although there were some hopeful reports that the stimulus package may lead to some improvement.

Commercial real estate investment activity weakened further. Contacts said a decline in credit availability and markdowns on commercial property were keeping buyers and sellers on the sidelines.

Banking and Finance
Most Districts reported weaker loan demand overall, but the reports were mixed across loan categories. In particular, the New York, Richmond, and Kansas City Districts noted an increase in residential real estate loans. Additionally, residential refinancing activity remained brisk, although the loan process was taking longer due to more stringent appraisals and underwriting standards. Demand for commercial and industrial loans was weak, and there were several reports that business borrowers were postponing capital expenditures. Commercial real estate lending continued to decline. Credit availability generally remained very tight across regions. A number of Districts reported deteriorating loan quality and rising delinquencies for all types of loan categories. In particular, several reports noted more stringent requirements for commercial real estate loans due to worries of worsening loan quality in the sector.

Agriculture and Natural Resources
Most regions reported improved planting and growing conditions, with the exception of the Dallas and San Francisco Districts, which are experiencing ongoing drought. Although beneficial, rainfall delayed field preparations for spring planting in the Richmond and Chicago Districts. Contacts in the Chicago District reported that producers had benefited from falling input prices, which are helping farmers obtain loans. Livestock producers in the Chicago, Kansas City, and Dallas Districts continued to be challenged by weak demand and low prices. Low milk prices have resulted in significant financial losses for dairy farmers in the Chicago and Dallas Districts, and have caused producers in the latter region to reduce their dairy cow herds.

Reduced demand, rising inventories, and lower prices for oil and natural gas led to further declines in energy sector activity. Drilling activity fell sharply in the Minneapolis, Kansas City, and Dallas Districts; respondents in the Atlanta and San Francisco Districts reported decreases as well. The Dallas District noted that the number of working U.S. rigs contracted by 300, and more than half of the decline was in Texas. In contrast, production was stable in the Cleveland District; gold mining is strong and wind energy projects moved ahead as planned in the Minneapolis District. Consistent with falling activity, the Minneapolis, Kansas City, and Dallas Districts noted further layoffs in oil and gas extraction. Looking forward, energy contacts in the Cleveland District said that they intend to lower capital spending over the next few months.

Prices
Districts that report on prices noted downward pressures. Oil prices rose during the survey period, although most other commodity prices were stable to down. Manufacturers noted declines in the cost of raw materials and inputs, and product prices were generally said to be steady to down. Significant discounting was reported among retailers, and there were numerous examples of service providers reducing fees. In particular, accounting and legal firms in the Dallas District were responding to customer requests for lower fees, while the San Francisco District found prices were declining for professional services and lodging. Transportation service contacts noted a reduction in prices.

Labor Markets and Wages
Labor market conditions were weak and reports of layoffs, reductions in work hours, temporary factory shutdowns, branch closures and hiring freezes remained widespread across Districts. Staffing firms in the New York, Cleveland, Richmond, Chicago, and Dallas Districts reported that demand for workers remained sluggish. The manufacturing and energy extraction sectors were the most affected but there were numerous reports of job cuts in the retail and services industries as well. The St. Louis District reported payroll declines in information and medical services, while the Cleveland District cited layoffs in transportation and financial services. The Dallas District noted further cuts in the real estate and construction industry; layoffs at major financial firms continued in the New York District; and the Philadelphia District reported that unpaid furloughs had been instituted by state and local governments. In contrast, Districts including Cleveland, Chicago, and Minneapolis reported some hiring in healthcare. Contacts in the Richmond District noted solid demand for technically-skilled professionals and IT and office-support workers. The Chicago and Dallas Districts saw a slight uptick in hiring of finance personnel due to the sharp increase in mortgage refinance activity. The St. Louis District reported that a food manufacturer and some wood and plastic manufacturers planned on expanding their operations and hiring additional staff. The employment outlook is generally bleak. Contacts in several Districts have instituted hiring freezes and anticipate further cuts in jobs and work hours.

Continuing layoffs, furloughs and hiring freezes kept wage pressures minimal. Contacts from a broad range of industries reported pay freezes, with some noting salary reductions. The Minneapolis District reported that unionized faculty at Minnesota's technical and community colleges had tentatively accepted a two-year pay freeze. Contacts in the Boston, Philadelphia, Richmond, Chicago, and San Francisco Districts reported cuts in certain non-wage employment benefits, including cuts in bonuses, elimination or suspension of employer contributions to employee retirement programs, and increases in copayments on employer sponsored healthcare plans.

fullreport20090415_beigebook.pdf

6,400p대에서 7,500p대까지 올라선 다우존스는, 차익매물이 나타나는 모습입니다.
3월초부터 근 2주간 저점에서 10% 이상 상승하는 랠리를 했기 때문에, 에너지 재조정이 예상되는 한 주 입니다.
7,000~7,500p 선에서 에너지 재조정 흐름이 유력합니다.

경기는 악화하며, 아직 개선되는 흐름은 본격적이지 않은 가운데, 6천대 중반에서 일단 반등은 했기 때문에,
추가하락 의지는 낮다고 볼 수 있습니다.
그러나, 이는 새로운 변수에 의한 충격 가능성을 배제한 관점입니다.
또한, FRB의 부실채권 매입이나 국채매입과 같은 정책성 뉴스가 반등세에 많이 반영되어 있습니다.

전주 주요 경기지표 : 03.16~03.20
Empire State 제조업지수를 보면, 여전히 침체하고 있고, 주택허가, 건설은 소폭 늘었으나 본격적인 것은 아니고,
생각대로 물가는 다소 오르고 있으나,
FOMC 3월 회의에서는 물가에 대해서 오히려 안도하는 스탠스를 취하고 있습니다.
3월 FOMC에서는 부실채권 매입을 확대하고, 국채를 매입하기로 결의하였습니다.

전주의 지표만의 흐름을 본다면, 기술적으로 7,000p선에 재진입한 다우존스는 일단
이 선을 지지해줄 가능성이 단기적으로는 커 보입니다.

미국 경기지표 주간 발표 일정 : 03.23~03.27
내구재주문, 최종 분기 GDP, 개인소비, 개인소득, 소비자심리 지표
_ 내주재주문, 최종 GDP는 안좋을 것으로 보이는데, 추세가 호전되는지 관심사항입니다.
_ 개인소비, 개인소득 지표는 이전에 약간 개선되는 징조도 나타났었기 때문에, 이런 흐름이 연장되는가 지켜볼만 합니다.

이미 다우존스는 저점권에서 1,000p 이상 올라와 있기 때문에, 한 주 차분이 쉬어갈 수도 있는 흐름입니다.

따라서, 추가하락하지 않는다면, 7,000~7,500p 선에서 에너지 재결집하는 한 주로 대응하면 될 것으로 생각됩니다.

다우존스 지수 최근 10일간 흐름
저점대에서 7,400p 대까지 도달 후, 에너지 재결집, 방향 탐색하는 다우존스 지수

다음은 미국 FRB가 발표한 미국 베이지북, Beige Book, 2009년 3월호 (2009년 2회차) 입니다.

March 4, 2009

Summary

Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco based on information collected on or before February 23, 2009. This document summarizes comments received from business and other contacts outside the Federal Reserve and is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials.

출처 : http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/beigebook/2009/    ( *이하 거친한글 해석 클릭 )

Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggest that national economic conditions deteriorated further during the reporting period of January through late February.  Ten of the twelve reports indicated weaker conditions or declines in economic activity; the exceptions were Philadelphia and Chicago, which reported that their regional economies "remained weak."  The deterioration was broad based, with only a few sectors such as basic food production and pharmaceuticals appearing to be exceptions.  Looking ahead, contacts from various Districts rate the prospects for near-term improvement in economic conditions as poor, with a significant pickup not expected before late 2009 or early 2010.

Consumer spending remained sluggish on net, although many Districts noted some improvement in January and February compared with a dismal holiday spending season.  Travel and tourist activity fell noticeably in key destinations, as did activity for a wide range of nonfinancial services, with substantial job cuts noted in many instances.  Reports on manufacturing activity suggested steep declines in activity in some sectors and pronounced declines overall.  Conditions weakened somewhat for agricultural producers and substantially for extractors of natural resources, with reduced global demand cited as an underlying determinant in both cases.  Markets for residential real estate remained largely stagnant, with only minimal and scattered signs of stabilization emerging in some areas, while demand for commercial real estate weakened significantly.  Reports from banks and other financial institutions indicated further drops in business loan demand, a slight deterioration in credit quality for businesses and households, and continued tight credit availability.

Upward price pressures continued to ease across a broad spectrum of final goods and services.  This was largely associated with lower prices for energy and assorted raw materials compared with earlier periods, but also with weak final demand more generally, which spurred price discounting for items other than energy and food.  With rising layoffs and hiring freezes, unemployment has risen in all areas, reducing or eliminating upward wage pressures.  A number of reports pointed to outright reductions in hourly compensation costs, through wage reductions and reduction or elimination of some employment benefits.

Consumer Spending and Tourism
Consumer spending remained very weak on balance, albeit with slight firming noted by many Districts, particularly compared with holiday-season sales that were very disappointing.  About half of the Districts reported that consumer demand was softer than during recent reporting periods or fell significantly below levels twelve months earlier.  However, compared with the preceding reporting period that included the holiday season, retail spending was described as "mixed" in the Boston and Richmond Districts, "nearly steady" in Philadelphia, and slightly improved in Cleveland and Dallas, while New York reported a reduced rate of decline compared with the "steep" pace in December.  But San Francisco characterized retail sales as "anemic" and pointed to double-digit sales declines relative to twelve months earlier for many retail outlets.  As reported by Richmond, Chicago, and San Francisco, discount chains fared much better than traditional department stores and specialized retailers, recording sales gains in many cases as consumers continued to switch away from discretionary spending and luxury items and toward basic necessities.

The weakness in discretionary spending was also reflected in relative sales by product type.  Sales of luxury goods such as jewelry, electronic equipment, and other big ticket items were reported to be especially slow in the Philadelphia, Richmond, and Chicago Districts.  Demand for furniture, appliances, and other durable household items remained quite depressed, according to Kansas City and San Francisco.  Sales of new automobiles and light trucks remained exceptionally sluggish, with Philadelphia, Richmond, and Kansas City reporting further declines from an already slow pace of sales.  Used vehicles fared better in general, with Kansas City and San Francisco noting that they were selling well and Cleveland and Chicago reporting improvement over the previous period.  Reports of gains in retail spending were largely limited to grocery stores and pharmacies, although reports from Philadelphia, St. Louis, and Richmond indicated some pickup in sales of apparel, which the latter District attributed in part to severe winter weather.

Travel and tourist activity continued to fall in most areas, as households reduced their vacation travel and corporate travel spending was scaled back.  Tourist visits and spending were reported to be slower than in the previous reporting period or down from twelve months earlier for major tourist destinations in the Richmond, Atlanta, Minneapolis, New York, and San Francisco Districts, with the declines in the latter two characterized as "substantial" and "sharp," respectively.  Airline traffic fell in the Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts.  Business at restaurants dropped substantially in some areas, notably in the Kansas City and San Francisco Districts, with extensive layoffs and restaurant closures reported in the latter.

Nonfinancial Services
Reports on nonfinancial services indicated significant drops in activity accompanied by widespread job cuts.  Providers of health-care services reported falling patient volumes, which were attributed in part to a drop in elective procedures in the Richmond, Minneapolis, and San Francisco Districts.  Demand continued to fall for professional services such as business consulting and accounting services, legal services, and other professional services in various Districts.  However, Dallas noted a modest increase, albeit less-than-expected, in demand for legal services due to increased bankruptcy proceedings.  Providers of information technology (IT) services in the Boston District saw a drop in activity on average, although some firms have sustained strong revenue growth; activity among providers of IT services was reported as stable to up in Kansas City, and Minneapolis reported that some IT services firms have seen solid demand from companies that are intent on using the technology to reduce costs.   Demand for staffing services weakened considerably.  Boston reported that outcomes for providers of temporary staffing services were "dismal," with revenue declines in the range of 20 to 50 percent compared with twelve months earlier.  Chicago and Dallas also reported sizable declines in activity by staffing firms, and New York noted that activity by a major employment agency has "virtually ground to a halt."

Demand for shipping and transportation services fell further.  New York, Cleveland, Richmond, and Atlanta reported reduced activity and layoffs among trucking and rail companies, with the decline in activity described as considerable in some cases.  Richmond also reported that shipping activity through ports in that District slowed further, as imports and exports both continued on a downward trend.

Manufacturing
Manufacturing activity fell on net in all Districts, with very sharp declines recorded for some sectors and only partial offsets provided by the few bright spots.  Cleveland reported a drop in overall factory output of about 25 percent compared with twelve months earlier.  For most Districts, the drop in activity was especially pronounced for makers of capital goods and construction-related equipment and materials, such as primary metals, wood products, and electrical equipment, along with consumer durables such as autos and furniture.  Manufacturers of computers, semiconductors, and other IT products saw further declines in production and orders in the Dallas and San Francisco Districts.  Slower export sales were cited as a source of weakness for various manufacturing sectors by the Atlanta, Chicago, and Kansas City Districts.

Manufacturing of biotechnology products and pharmaceuticals was one bright spot, with Boston reporting sales gains at a double-digit pace for biopharmaceutical firms, Richmond noting continued hiring of temporary staff among life sciences and pharmaceutical companies, and Chicago reporting continued strong demand for pharmaceuticals.  Aircraft manufacturers in the St. Louis District are planning to expand existing production facilities; activity in this sector was largely stable in the Cleveland and San Francisco Districts, but contacts expect some slowing in the future as airlines reduce capacity due to a slowdown in air travel.  Food processers and manufacturers of selected chemicals also saw further increases in demand during the reporting period, according to Philadelphia and San Francisco.

As a result of declining production, capacity utilization fell in most manufacturing sectors, with rates as low as 25 to 50 percent reported for some metal fabricators.  Several Districts reported that capital spending plans were curtailed further during the reporting period, notably for companies in the retail sector and within manufacturing, which suggests the possibility of further reductions in orders for capital goods going forward.

Real Estate and Construction
Residential real estate markets remained in the doldrums in most areas, with only scattered, very tentative signs of stabilization reported.  The pace of sales remained very low in most areas and declined further in some; most Districts reported small declines, but New York cited a sales drop of 60 to 65 percent in Manhattan compared with twelve months earlier.  By contrast, Cleveland, Richmond, Dallas, and San Francisco each reported a rising or better-than-expected sales pace for existing or new homes in some areas, attributed largely to falling prices and improved financing terms for some types of home mortgages.  House prices continued to decline, reportedly at double-digit paces in some areas, with little or no signs of a deceleration evident.  Builders in various Districts generally remain pessimistic regarding recovery prospects this year, and consequently the pace of new home construction declined further in most areas. 

Demand for commercial, industrial, and retail space fell further during the reporting period, with some evidence of more rapid deterioration than in preceding periods.  Vacancy rates rose and lease rates declined on a widespread basis; New York noted that commercial real estate markets "weakened noticeably," while Atlanta described reports on commercial real estate that were "decidedly more negative" than in previous periods.  Construction activity has declined commensurately, and assorted reports suggest that market participants expect this weakness to continue at least through the end of 2009.  Cleveland noted that public works projects have shown stability of late, although they declined in the San Francisco District as a result of the budgetary struggles of some state and local governments there.  Credit constraints and uncertainty were reported to be a drag on commercial construction and leasing activity in the Philadelphia, Chicago, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts.    

Banking and Finance
Lending activity fell further on net, with mixed results across Districts and loan categories.  Demand for commercial and industrial loans was reported to be lower in most Districts, although Philadelphia reported recent growth in this category.  Consumer loan demand also fell in general, although Cleveland reported that it was "stable to up" during the reporting period.  Demand for new mortgages remained depressed, but New York, Cleveland, and Richmond noted that refinancing activity continued at high levels or increased further.  Boston and Cleveland reported that loan demand and the availability of funds were more favorable for community banks than for institutions with a national scope.

The availability of credit generally remained tight.  Lenders continued to impose strict standards for all types of loans, with scattered reports of further tightening and particular scrutiny focused on construction projects and commercial real estate transactions.  Despite stringent standards, Atlanta and Chicago noted that funds were available for well-qualified applicants, and Dallas cited contacts who reported that capital has become more readily available.  Credit quality fell for all loan categories, with declines cited by most Districts with the notable exception of Kansas City, where current loan quality was unchanged and expectations for future quality improved modestly.  New York reported that the deterioration in quality was most pronounced for consumer loans, while Chicago emphasized deterioration in the quality of business loans as a result of rising bankruptcies.  Scattered reports suggested improved liquidity in some credit markets and reductions in interest spreads, with Chicago noting that conditions for the commercial paper and corporate bond markets "improved significantly." 

Agriculture and Natural Resources
Conditions weakened for agricultural producers in various Districts, as demand fell and growing conditions were mixed.  Sales slowed for a variety of tree and row crops, grains, dairy products, and livestock, and some product prices declined significantly.  Dallas and Atlanta reported that sales were undermined by a drop in overseas demand, and the latter District also faced a sharp decline in demand for peanuts resulting from a recent salmonella outbreak at a processing plant.  Planting and growing conditions were mixed within and across Districts, with adequate moisture and favorable temperatures reported for many areas but ongoing drought conditions and restricted water supplies noted by Dallas and San Francisco.  Producers benefited from declining input prices on net, but these were not large enough to offset slower sales and lower product prices, which put downward pressure on profit margins and land values, according to Chicago and Kansas City.

Activity slowed significantly for producers of natural resource products.  Reduced global demand and lower prices for oil have prompted a sharp cutback in oil extraction activity since last fall, with Dallas noting an "unprecedented" decline in the domestic rig count that was largely concentrated in their District.  Respondents from the Kansas City District expect oil extraction activity to fall further as the year proceeds, and Minneapolis noted that natural gas and mining activities also faltered during the reporting period.

Prices and Wages
Upward price pressures were very limited during the reporting period, as a result of lower energy and commodity prices and weak demand for final goods and services across a wide range of sectors.  The lower prices of energy and raw materials generally were passed on and contributed to downward pressure on the final prices of various products, according to Chicago and Dallas.  Prices dropped on selected retail items in the Philadelphia, Kansas City, and San Francisco Districts, as discounting was widespread.  Selected food products were a notable exception to downward price pressures, with Philadelphia reporting that some food processors raised their product prices.  Gas prices rose, but according to Chicago and San Francisco the increase was not large enough to substantially offset the ongoing effects of the net decline from last year's highs.

Upward wage pressures eased in all Districts, as a rising incidence of hiring freezes and continued job cuts increased the degree of labor market slack.  Contacts from various Districts pointed to a higher incidence of wage freezes resulting from the added slack, with a few noting outright wage reductions.  Some employers also reduced compensation by lowering benefit costs, including reduced contributions to employee retirement programs, according to the Philadelphia, Chicago, Minneapolis, and San Francisco Districts.