Released: Monday, April 20, 2009

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index™ (LEI) for the U.S. decreased 0.3 percent, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index™ (CEI) decreased 0.4 percent and The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index™ (LAG) decreased 0.4 percent in March.

다음은 미국실업률 추이 및 미국 실업률 지역별 지도 입니다. _1949~2009.04

실업률은 계속 상승하고 있으며, OECD는 금년~내년까지 미국 실업률이 평균 10%를 상회할 것으로 최근에 전망한 바 있습니다.

미국의 지역별 실업률을 보면, 2009년 3월 현재 미국 전역 평균 8.5%에 이르는 가운데,
서부 및 동부 내륙 공업지역이 심각한 상태를 보여주고 있으며, 이들 일부 지역의 실업률은 이미 20%를 상회하고 있으며,
실업률이 25%를 이미 넘어서고 있는 지역도 나타나고 있습니다.

미국 실업률 변화 _1999~2009.03

Series Id:           lns14000000




Seasonal Adjusted




Series title:        (Seas) Unemployment Rate




Labor force status:  Unemployment rate




Type of data:        Percent




Age:                 16 years and over

Series Id:           LNS14000000 Seasonal Adjusted Series title:        (Seas) Unemployment Rate Labor force status:  Unemployment rate Type of data:        Percent Age:                 16 years and over
Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Annual
1948	3.4	3.8	4.0	3.9	3.5	3.6	3.6	3.9	3.8	3.7	3.8	4.0
1949	4.3	4.7	5.0	5.3	6.1	6.2	6.7	6.8	6.6	7.9	6.4	6.6
1950	6.5	6.4	6.3	5.8	5.5	5.4	5.0	4.5	4.4	4.2	4.2	4.3
1951	3.7	3.4	3.4	3.1	3.0	3.2	3.1	3.1	3.3	3.5	3.5	3.1
1952	3.2	3.1	2.9	2.9	3.0	3.0	3.2	3.4	3.1	3.0	2.8	2.7
1953	2.9	2.6	2.6	2.7	2.5	2.5	2.6	2.7	2.9	3.1	3.5	4.5
1954	4.9	5.2	5.7	5.9	5.9	5.6	5.8	6.0	6.1	5.7	5.3	5.0
1955	4.9	4.7	4.6	4.7	4.3	4.2	4.0	4.2	4.1	4.3	4.2	4.2
1956	4.0	3.9	4.2	4.0	4.3	4.3	4.4	4.1	3.9	3.9	4.3	4.2
1957	4.2	3.9	3.7	3.9	4.1	4.3	4.2	4.1	4.4	4.5	5.1	5.2
1958	5.8	6.4	6.7	7.4	7.4	7.3	7.5	7.4	7.1	6.7	6.2	6.2
1959	6.0	5.9	5.6	5.2	5.1	5.0	5.1	5.2	5.5	5.7	5.8	5.3
1960	5.2	4.8	5.4	5.2	5.1	5.4	5.5	5.6	5.5	6.1	6.1	6.6
1961	6.6	6.9	6.9	7.0	7.1	6.9	7.0	6.6	6.7	6.5	6.1	6.0
1962	5.8	5.5	5.6	5.6	5.5	5.5	5.4	5.7	5.6	5.4	5.7	5.5
1963	5.7	5.9	5.7	5.7	5.9	5.6	5.6	5.4	5.5	5.5	5.7	5.5
1964	5.6	5.4	5.4	5.3	5.1	5.2	4.9	5.0	5.1	5.1	4.8	5.0
1965	4.9	5.1	4.7	4.8	4.6	4.6	4.4	4.4	4.3	4.2	4.1	4.0
1966	4.0	3.8	3.8	3.8	3.9	3.8	3.8	3.8	3.7	3.7	3.6	3.8
1967	3.9	3.8	3.8	3.8	3.8	3.9	3.8	3.8	3.8	4.0	3.9	3.8
1968	3.7	3.8	3.7	3.5	3.5	3.7	3.7	3.5	3.4	3.4	3.4	3.4
1969	3.4	3.4	3.4	3.4	3.4	3.5	3.5	3.5	3.7	3.7	3.5	3.5
1970	3.9	4.2	4.4	4.6	4.8	4.9	5.0	5.1	5.4	5.5	5.9	6.1
1971	5.9	5.9	6.0	5.9	5.9	5.9	6.0	6.1	6.0	5.8	6.0	6.0
1972	5.8	5.7	5.8	5.7	5.7	5.7	5.6	5.6	5.5	5.6	5.3	5.2
1973	4.9	5.0	4.9	5.0	4.9	4.9	4.8	4.8	4.8	4.6	4.8	4.9
1974	5.1	5.2	5.1	5.1	5.1	5.4	5.5	5.5	5.9	6.0	6.6	7.2
1975	8.1	8.1	8.6	8.8	9.0	8.8	8.6	8.4	8.4	8.4	8.3	8.2
1976	7.9	7.7	7.6	7.7	7.4	7.6	7.8	7.8	7.6	7.7	7.8	7.8
1977	7.5	7.6	7.4	7.2	7.0	7.2	6.9	7.0	6.8	6.8	6.8	6.4
1978	6.4	6.3	6.3	6.1	6.0	5.9	6.2	5.9	6.0	5.8	5.9	6.0
1979	5.9	5.9	5.8	5.8	5.6	5.7	5.7	6.0	5.9	6.0	5.9	6.0
1980	6.3	6.3	6.3	6.9	7.5	7.6	7.8	7.7	7.5	7.5	7.5	7.2
1981	7.5	7.4	7.4	7.2	7.5	7.5	7.2	7.4	7.6	7.9	8.3	8.5
1982	8.6	8.9	9.0	9.3	9.4	9.6	9.8	9.8	10.1	10.4	10.8	10.8
1983	10.4	10.4	10.3	10.2	10.1	10.1	9.4	9.5	9.2	8.8	8.5	8.3
1984	8.0	7.8	7.8	7.7	7.4	7.2	7.5	7.5	7.3	7.4	7.2	7.3
1985	7.3	7.2	7.2	7.3	7.2	7.4	7.4	7.1	7.1	7.1	7.0	7.0
1986	6.7	7.2	7.2	7.1	7.2	7.2	7.0	6.9	7.0	7.0	6.9	6.6
1987	6.6	6.6	6.6	6.3	6.3	6.2	6.1	6.0	5.9	6.0	5.8	5.7
1988	5.7	5.7	5.7	5.4	5.6	5.4	5.4	5.6	5.4	5.4	5.3	5.3
1989	5.4	5.2	5.0	5.2	5.2	5.3	5.2	5.2	5.3	5.3	5.4	5.4
1990	5.4	5.3	5.2	5.4	5.4	5.2	5.5	5.7	5.9	5.9	6.2	6.3
1991	6.4	6.6	6.8	6.7	6.9	6.9	6.8	6.9	6.9	7.0	7.0	7.3
1992	7.3	7.4	7.4	7.4	7.6	7.8	7.7	7.6	7.6	7.3	7.4	7.4
1993	7.3	7.1	7.0	7.1	7.1	7.0	6.9	6.8	6.7	6.8	6.6	6.5
1994	6.6	6.6	6.5	6.4	6.1	6.1	6.1	6.0	5.9	5.8	5.6	5.5
1995	5.6	5.4	5.4	5.8	5.6	5.6	5.7	5.7	5.6	5.5	5.6	5.6
1996	5.6	5.5	5.5	5.6	5.6	5.3	5.5	5.1	5.2	5.2	5.4	5.4
1997	5.3	5.2	5.2	5.1	4.9	5.0	4.9	4.8	4.9	4.7	4.6	4.7
1998	4.6	4.6	4.7	4.3	4.4	4.5	4.5	4.5	4.6	4.5	4.4	4.4
1999	4.3	4.4	4.2	4.3	4.2	4.3	4.3	4.2	4.2	4.1	4.1	4.0
2000	4.0	4.1	4.0	3.8	4.0	4.0	4.0	4.1	3.9	3.9	3.9	3.9
2001	4.2	4.2	4.3	4.4	4.3	4.5	4.6	4.9	5.0	5.3	5.5	5.7
2002	5.7	5.7	5.7	5.9	5.8	5.8	5.8	5.7	5.7	5.7	5.9	6.0
2003	5.8	5.9	5.9	6.0	6.1	6.3	6.2	6.1	6.1	6.0	5.8	5.7
2004	5.7	5.6	5.8	5.6	5.6	5.6	5.5	5.4	5.4	5.5	5.4	5.4
2005	5.2	5.4	5.2	5.2	5.1	5.1	5.0	4.9	5.0	5.0	5.0	4.8
2006	4.7	4.8	4.7	4.7	4.7	4.6	4.7	4.7	4.5	4.4	4.5	4.4
2007	4.6	4.5	4.4	4.5	4.5	4.6	4.7	4.7	4.7	4.8	4.7	4.9
2008	4.9	4.8	5.1	5.0	5.5	5.6	5.8	6.2	6.2	6.6	6.8	7.2
2009	7.6	8.1	8.5

 
미국 산업생산, Industrial Production 지표가 4월 월간(m/m) -1.5% 추가 하락하였습니다.

산업생산, Industrial Production 지표로 보면 침체한 미국경기는 아직 뚜렷한 회복세로 전환되지는 못하고 있음을
볼 수 있습니다.


Industrial production fell 1.5 percent in March after a similar decrease in February. For the first quarter as a whole, output dropped at an annual rate of 20.0 percent, the largest quarterly decrease of the current contraction. At 97.4 percent of its 2002 average, output in March fell to its lowest level since December 1998 and was nearly 13 percent below its year-earlier level. Production in manufacturing moved down 1.7 percent in March and has registered five consecutive quarterly decreases. Broad-based declines in production continued; one exception was the output of motor vehicles and parts, which advanced slightly in March but remained well below its year-earlier level. Outside of manufacturing, the output of mines fell 3.2 percent in March, as oil and gas well drilling continued to drop. After a relatively mild February, a return to more seasonal temperatures pushed up the output of utilities. The capacity utilization rate for total industry fell further to 69.3 percent, a historical low for this series, which begins in 1967. (Federal Reserve 보고 자료)

자세한 자료는 첨부파일을 참조하시기 바랍니다.

g17.pdf

 

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers continued to deteriorate in April, but at a much slower pace than in recent months. The general business conditions index climbed 24 points from its March record low, to -14.7. The new orders index shot up 41 points to a reading just below zero, and the shipments index rose 25 points, also reaching a level near zero. The inventories index continued to fall, hitting a record low -36.0.  The indexes for both prices paid and prices received remained negative. The index for number of employees, while negative, improved in April, but the average workweek index fell. Future indexes were much improved, with the future general business conditions, new orders, and shipments indexes rising sharply to levels not seen since September of last year. The capital spending and technology spending indexes remained below zero, although they were considerably above last month’s levels.

In response to a series of supplementary questions, manufacturers generally indicated that factors other than tight credit were largely responsible for weakness in sales (see Supplemental Report tab).  A majority of those surveyed reported that their sales had fallen more than 10 percent below their levels in “normal” times.  The weak economy and uncertainty about the business outlook were widely cited as factors dampening demand for respondents’ products and services.  Most respondents cited little or no difficulty obtaining financing for either long-term commitments (capital investment) or short-term needs (operating expenses).  Moreover, fewer than 10 percent of those surveyed indicated that problems obtaining credit had adversely affected their production or sales.   

General Business Conditions Index Rises Sharply
The general business conditions index rebounded from the record low set in March, surging 24 points to -14.7. The fraction of respondents that reported improved conditions rose from 10 percent last month to 24 percent in April, and the percentage that reported worsening conditions fell from 48 percent to 39 percent. Although still negative, the new orders index shot up 41 points to -3.9, with 29 percent of respondents reporting an increase in orders. The shipments index also rose dramatically, climbing from -26.7 to -1.8. The unfilled orders index rose less sharply, advancing 6 points to -18.0. The delivery time index rose several points to -5.6. The inventories index fell for a second consecutive month, dropping 9 points to a record-low -36.0.

Price and Employment Indexes Are Little Changed
The prices paid index, at -14.6, was unchanged from March, remaining below zero for a fifth consecutive month. The prices received index rose 6 points to -18.0. The number of employees index remained well below zero but improved to -28.1. The average workweek index fell 5 points to -28.1.

Six-Month Outlook Improves Markedly
Future indexes suggested a significant improvement in the six-month outlook compared with readings in the last few months. The future general business conditions index rose 30 points, to 33.1, its highest level since September of last year. Fifty-one percent of respondents—compared with 38 percent in March—expected conditions to be better six months from now. The future new orders and shipments indexes rose to similarly high levels, and the future unfilled orders index turned positive for the first time this year. The future prices paid index remained just above zero, while the future prices received index was just below zero. The future number of employees index climbed 16 points to -4.6, and the future average workweek index rose above zero. The capital spending index advanced 18 points to -1.1, and the technology spending index rose 19 points to -4.5.

출처 : Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Reports from the Federal Reserve Banks indicate that overall economic activity contracted further or remained weak. However, five of the twelve Districts noted a moderation in the pace of decline, and several saw signs that activity in some sectors was stabilizing at a low level.

전반적인 경제 활동은 침체를 지속하고 여전히 약세이지만, 12개 지역 중 5개 지역은 침체 속도가 완화하고 있고 미약하지만 몇몇 산업 섹터 활동은 약한 정도로 완화되는 징후가 나타나고 있습니다. 

(*주: 베이지북의 주요 관찰 지역은, Districts 는 Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St.Louis, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, San Francisco 입니다.)

Boston
New York
Philadelphia
Cleveland
Richmond
Atlanta
Chicago
St. Louis
Minneapolis
Kansas City
Dallas
San Francisco

Manufacturing activity weakened across a broad range of industries in most Districts, with only a few exceptions. Nonfinancial service activity continued to contract across Districts. Retail spending remained sluggish, although some Districts noted a slight improvement in sales compared with the previous reporting period. Residential real estate markets continued to be weak. Home prices and construction were still falling in most areas, but better-than-expected buyer traffic led to a scattered pickup in sales in a number of Districts. Nonresidential real estate conditions continued to deteriorate. Difficulty obtaining commercial real estate financing was constraining construction and investment activity. Spending on business travel declined as corporations cut back. Reports on tourism were mixed. Bankers reported tight credit conditions, rising delinquencies, and some deterioration of loan quality.

Agricultural conditions were generally favorable across Districts, although drought conditions persisted in the Dallas and San Francisco Districts. The Districts reporting on energy said reduced demand, high inventories, and lower prices led to steep cutbacks in oil and natural gas drilling and production activity. The Minneapolis, Kansas City, and Dallas Districts noted declines in employment in the oil and gas extraction industry.

Downward pressure on prices was reported across Districts. Wage and salary pressures eased as labor markets weakened in all Districts, and many contacts continued to report job cuts and wage and hiring freezes. Employment continued to decline across a range of industries, with only scattered reports of hiring.

Manufacturing
Manufacturing activity continued to decline in most Districts and across a wide range of industries. Several reports, however, noted that the pace of decline had slowed or that factory activity had stabilized. The Boston, Philadelphia, Richmond, Atlanta, St. Louis, Minneapolis, and San Francisco Districts cited decreases in production. The Chicago and Kansas City Districts said declines in production had slowed. The Cleveland District noted some leveling off in declines in new orders, and the New York and Dallas Districts noted that demand was beginning to bottom out following steep declines. Orders and shipments of capital goods, autos, paper, and construction-related equipment and products such as metals, wood products, lumber and electrical machinery remained mostly sluggish and below year-ago levels, with the Chicago District noting an increase in order cancellations and deferral requests. Aircraft makers in the Chicago District noted declines in demand, while aerospace manufacturers in the San Francisco District reported that a drop in airline passenger traffic and cargo capacity had spurred order cancellations and delivery deferrals.

In contrast, orders and sales of high-tech equipment firmed somewhat at very weak levels in the Dallas and San Francisco Districts. Defense firms in the Boston and Cleveland Districts reported solid activity. Food manufacturers saw sales gains in the Philadelphia and San Francisco Districts, and a food manufacturer in the St. Louis District noted plans to open a new plant. Pharmaceutical firms in the Boston and Chicago Districts continued to see solid demand; petrochemical producers in the Dallas District noted a slight turnaround in operating rates.

Manufacturers' assessments of future factory activity improved marginally over the survey period as well, with contacts in the Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Kansas City Districts noting a slight upturn in the outlook for production and sales. Capital expenditure plans remained on hold across most regions, and the Boston, Philadelphia, and Cleveland Districts noted cuts in capital budgets.

Nonfinancial Services
Districts that report on nonfinancial business services said demand continued to fall across most industries. Providers of health-care services noted further declines in activity, and contacts in several Districts noted demand for professional services, such as architecture, business consulting and legal services, remained weak. Demand for IT services was mixed. Among service firms, there were reports of customers delaying payments or asking for price reductions, and receivables were harder to collect.

While there were scattered reports of optimism, temporary staffing firms generally continued to report weak conditions. Firms in the Dallas District were not renewing contracts on current personnel, and the New York District characterized the supply of available workers as "inexhaustible."

Shipping activity continued to fall over the past six weeks as both domestic and international demand remained dampened. Contacts in several Districts said shipments of construction-related manufacturing products continued to drop at a substantial pace.

Consumer Spending and Tourism
Consumer spending remained generally weak. However, several Districts said sales rose slightly or declines moderated compared with the previous survey period. In particular, the Boston, Cleveland, and Chicago Districts reported an improvement in sales. Purchases of big ticket and luxury items continued to decline while spending on food and necessities fared better. The Philadelphia, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts reported that consumers were looking for value, and were opting for lower-priced, private label products over higher-priced alternatives. Retailers kept inventories lean, in line with the slow pace of sales, and most expect demand to stay at current low levels over the next few months.

Auto dealers continued to struggle, and overall vehicle sales were sluggish in all reporting Districts as weak demand and tight credit continued to limit sales. Used vehicle sales improved slightly in the Boston, Cleveland, Kansas City, and San Francisco Districts, but new car sales remained feeble. Dealers in the Philadelphia District reported difficulty in obtaining financing for inventory purchases, and a few dealerships in the St. Louis District went out of business, but dealers in the Cleveland District reported minimal problems with floor-plan financing. While auto dealers in the Boston, Cleveland, and Kansas City Districts noted some improvements in the outlook, those in the Philadelphia and Dallas Districts expect continued weakness.

Travel and tourism activity contracted further in several reporting Districts, as households and businesses continued to scale back on discretionary and travel spending. Tourist spending in the New York, Minneapolis, and San Francisco Districts saw double-digit declines compared with the prior year. Airlines in the Dallas District and hotel contacts in the Kansas City District reported weakening demand for business travel, while the Atlanta District noted convention cancellations. Restaurants continued to see sluggish activity in the Kansas City and San Francisco Districts, which prompted further layoffs and closures in the latter region. In contrast, mountain resorts in the Richmond District said ski season demand was on par with last year, and cruise liners in the Atlanta District reported that deep discounting spurred bookings.

Real Estate and Construction
Housing markets remained depressed overall, but there were some signs that conditions may be stabilizing. Many Districts said factors such as homebuyer tax credits, low mortgage rates, and more affordable prices led to a rising number of potential buyers. The Richmond, Atlanta, Minneapolis, Kansas City, and San Francisco Districts noted a modest improvement in sales in some areas.

New home construction activity fell further, however, as inventories remained elevated. Nonetheless, several Districts, including Atlanta and Kansas City, said that inventories of unsold homes had turned down slightly.

Home prices continued to decline in most Districts, although a few reports noted that prices were unchanged or that the pace of decline had eased. Low mortgage rates were fueling refinancing activity. Outlooks for the housing sector were generally more optimistic than in earlier surveys, with respondents hopeful that increased buyer interest would lead to better sales.

Nonresidential real estate conditions continued to deteriorate over the past six weeks. Demand for office, industrial and retail space continued to fall, and there were reports of increases in sublease space. Rental concessions were rising. Property values moved lower as reality "set in." Construction activity continues to slow, and several Districts noted increased postponement of both private and public projects. Nonresidential construction is expected to decline through year-end, although there were some hopeful reports that the stimulus package may lead to some improvement.

Commercial real estate investment activity weakened further. Contacts said a decline in credit availability and markdowns on commercial property were keeping buyers and sellers on the sidelines.

Banking and Finance
Most Districts reported weaker loan demand overall, but the reports were mixed across loan categories. In particular, the New York, Richmond, and Kansas City Districts noted an increase in residential real estate loans. Additionally, residential refinancing activity remained brisk, although the loan process was taking longer due to more stringent appraisals and underwriting standards. Demand for commercial and industrial loans was weak, and there were several reports that business borrowers were postponing capital expenditures. Commercial real estate lending continued to decline. Credit availability generally remained very tight across regions. A number of Districts reported deteriorating loan quality and rising delinquencies for all types of loan categories. In particular, several reports noted more stringent requirements for commercial real estate loans due to worries of worsening loan quality in the sector.

Agriculture and Natural Resources
Most regions reported improved planting and growing conditions, with the exception of the Dallas and San Francisco Districts, which are experiencing ongoing drought. Although beneficial, rainfall delayed field preparations for spring planting in the Richmond and Chicago Districts. Contacts in the Chicago District reported that producers had benefited from falling input prices, which are helping farmers obtain loans. Livestock producers in the Chicago, Kansas City, and Dallas Districts continued to be challenged by weak demand and low prices. Low milk prices have resulted in significant financial losses for dairy farmers in the Chicago and Dallas Districts, and have caused producers in the latter region to reduce their dairy cow herds.

Reduced demand, rising inventories, and lower prices for oil and natural gas led to further declines in energy sector activity. Drilling activity fell sharply in the Minneapolis, Kansas City, and Dallas Districts; respondents in the Atlanta and San Francisco Districts reported decreases as well. The Dallas District noted that the number of working U.S. rigs contracted by 300, and more than half of the decline was in Texas. In contrast, production was stable in the Cleveland District; gold mining is strong and wind energy projects moved ahead as planned in the Minneapolis District. Consistent with falling activity, the Minneapolis, Kansas City, and Dallas Districts noted further layoffs in oil and gas extraction. Looking forward, energy contacts in the Cleveland District said that they intend to lower capital spending over the next few months.

Prices
Districts that report on prices noted downward pressures. Oil prices rose during the survey period, although most other commodity prices were stable to down. Manufacturers noted declines in the cost of raw materials and inputs, and product prices were generally said to be steady to down. Significant discounting was reported among retailers, and there were numerous examples of service providers reducing fees. In particular, accounting and legal firms in the Dallas District were responding to customer requests for lower fees, while the San Francisco District found prices were declining for professional services and lodging. Transportation service contacts noted a reduction in prices.

Labor Markets and Wages
Labor market conditions were weak and reports of layoffs, reductions in work hours, temporary factory shutdowns, branch closures and hiring freezes remained widespread across Districts. Staffing firms in the New York, Cleveland, Richmond, Chicago, and Dallas Districts reported that demand for workers remained sluggish. The manufacturing and energy extraction sectors were the most affected but there were numerous reports of job cuts in the retail and services industries as well. The St. Louis District reported payroll declines in information and medical services, while the Cleveland District cited layoffs in transportation and financial services. The Dallas District noted further cuts in the real estate and construction industry; layoffs at major financial firms continued in the New York District; and the Philadelphia District reported that unpaid furloughs had been instituted by state and local governments. In contrast, Districts including Cleveland, Chicago, and Minneapolis reported some hiring in healthcare. Contacts in the Richmond District noted solid demand for technically-skilled professionals and IT and office-support workers. The Chicago and Dallas Districts saw a slight uptick in hiring of finance personnel due to the sharp increase in mortgage refinance activity. The St. Louis District reported that a food manufacturer and some wood and plastic manufacturers planned on expanding their operations and hiring additional staff. The employment outlook is generally bleak. Contacts in several Districts have instituted hiring freezes and anticipate further cuts in jobs and work hours.

Continuing layoffs, furloughs and hiring freezes kept wage pressures minimal. Contacts from a broad range of industries reported pay freezes, with some noting salary reductions. The Minneapolis District reported that unionized faculty at Minnesota's technical and community colleges had tentatively accepted a two-year pay freeze. Contacts in the Boston, Philadelphia, Richmond, Chicago, and San Francisco Districts reported cuts in certain non-wage employment benefits, including cuts in bonuses, elimination or suspension of employer contributions to employee retirement programs, and increases in copayments on employer sponsored healthcare plans.

fullreport20090415_beigebook.pdf

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $344.4 billion, a decrease of 1.1 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month and 9.4 percent (±0.7%) below March 2008. Total sales for the January through March 2009 period were down 8.8 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The January 2009 to February 2009 percent change was revised from -0.1 percent (±0.5%)* to +0.3 percent (±0.3%)*.

Retail trade sales were down 1.1 percent (±0.7%) from February 2009 and 10.7 percent (±0.7%) below last year. Gasoline stations sales were down 34.0 percent (±1.5%) from March 2008 and motor vehicle and parts dealers sales were down 23.5 percent (±2.3%) from last year.

The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau's full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.

Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales
(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)

The Advance Monthly Retail Sales for Retail and Food Services for April is scheduled to be released May 13, 2009 at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

For information, visit the Census Bureau's Web site at <http://www.census.gov/retail>. This report is also available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's STAT-USA (202-482-1986).

* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different than zero.

TABLE 1A.  ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--March 2009
Estimates adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes.
(Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(2)

                 (In Millions of dollars)


                                                                     2009     2009     2009     2008     2008
   NAICS(1)                    Kind of Business                      Mar(3)   Feb      Jan      Mar      Feb
   Code                                                              (a)      (p)      (r)      (r)      (r)

                Retail & food services, total....................   344,380  348,359  347,311  380,171  378,191

                 Total (excl. motor vehicle &  parts)............   288,203  290,844  288,038  306,746  304,410

                   Retail .......................................   305,830  309,246  308,613  342,444  340,684

                GAFO(4)..........................................       (*)   96,663   95,550   98,272   97,271

   441          Motor vehicle & parts dealers....................    56,177   57,515   59,273   73,425   73,781
   4411,4412     Auto & other motor veh. dealers.................    49,659   50,926   52,720   67,011   67,405

   442          Furniture & home furnishings stores..............     8,231    8,370    8,326    9,467    9,445

   443          Electronics & appliance stores....................    8,535    9,066    9,007    9,427    9,199
   44311,13      Appl., T.V. &  camera...........................       (*)    7,279    7,254    7,609    7,375
   44312         Computer & software stores......................       (*)    1,787    1,753    1,818    1,824

   444          Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers    24,488   24,645   24,762   26,971   27,538
   4441          Building mat. & supplies dealers................       (*)   20,585   20,590   22,998   23,608

   445          Food & beverage stores...........................    49,469   49,239   49,308   48,671   48,367
   4451          Grocery stores..................................    44,123   43,931   44,063   43,649   43,400
   4453          Beer, wine & liquor stores......................       (*)    3,578    3,591    3,452    3,421

   446          Health & personal care stores....................    21,124   21,037   20,910   20,233   20,260
   44611         Pharmacies & drug stores........................       (*)   17,320   17,198   16,765   16,762

   447          Gasoline stations................................    27,896   28,339   27,474   42,253   41,523

   448          Clothing & clothing accessories stores...........    17,939   18,266   17,775   18,901   18,655
   44811         Men's clothing stores...........................       (*)      (S)      (S)      (S)      (S)
   44812         Women's clothing stores.........................       (*)    3,044    2,982    3,349    3,359
   4482          Shoe stores.....................................       (*)    2,215    2,087    2,201    2,221

   451          Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores.......     7,287    7,355    7,350    7,396    7,311

   452          General merchandise stores.......................    50,146   50,229   49,643   49,509   49,204
   4521          Department stores (ex. L.D.)....................    16,057   16,106   15,965   16,990   17,103
   4521          Department stores (incl. L.D.)(5)...............       (*)     (NA)     (NA)     (NA)     (NA)
   4529          Other general merchandise stores................       (*)   34,123   33,678   32,519   32,101
   45291          Warehouse clubs & supercenters.................       (*)   30,253   29,954   28,875   28,385
   45299          All other gen. merchandise stores..............       (*)    3,870    3,724    3,644    3,716

   453          Miscellaneous store retailers....................     9,519    9,736    9,214    9,867    9,715

   454          Nonstore retailers...............................    25,019   25,449   25,571   26,324   25,686
   4541          Electronic shopping & mail-order houses.........       (*)   18,264   18,301   17,912   17,504

   722          Food services & drinking places..................    38,550   39,113   38,698   37,727   37,507


                (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business.

                (NA) Not available (S) Suppressed (a) Advance estimate  (p) Preliminary estimate  (r) Revised estimate

(1)   For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html

(2)   Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment
      uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12 ARIMA program.  The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally
      adjusted estimates shown in this table.  Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated.  Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found
      on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html

(3)   Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample.
      All other estimates are from the MRTS sample.

(4)   GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443),
      clothing & clothing accessories (448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise (452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores (4532).

(5)   Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores.  Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.





TABLE 1B.  ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--March 2009
Estimates not adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences and price changes.
                 (In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change)

                                                                       3 month total
                                                                                 % Chg.   2009     2009     2009     2008     2008
   NAICS(1)                    Kind of Business                        2009       from    Mar(2)   Feb      Jan      Mar      Feb
   Code                                                                           2008    (a)      (p)      (r)

                Retail & food services, total....................     966,116    -10.1   338,716  308,599  318,801  378,755  348,876

                 Total (excl. motor vehicle &  parts)............     800,901     -6.8   278,617  255,952  266,332  300,572  278,636

                   Retail .......................................     854,825    -11.5   299,742  273,006  282,077  340,236  313,244

                GAFO(3)..........................................         (*)       (*)      (*)   83,579   84,003   93,727   87,385

   441          Motor vehicle & parts dealers....................     165,215    -23.2    60,099   52,647   52,469   78,183   70,240
   4411,4412     Auto & other motor veh. dealers.................     146,785    -25.5    53,483   46,750   46,552   71,769   64,304
   44111          New car dealers................................         (*)       (*)      (*)   35,603   36,334   56,849   51,188
   4413          Auto parts, acc. & tire stores..................         (*)       (*)      (*)    5,897    5,917    6,414    5,936

   442          Furniture & home furnishings stores..............      23,094    -13.9     7,951    7,466    7,677    9,136    8,822
   4421          Furniture stores................................         (*)       (*)      (*)    4,434    4,370    5,100    5,063
   4422          Home furnishings stores.........................         (*)       (*)      (*)    3,032    3,307    4,036    3,759

   443          Electronics & appliance stores....................     24,895     -5.5     7,796    8,492    8,607    8,659    8,857
   44311,13      Appl., T.V. &  camera...........................         (*)       (*)      (*)    6,857    6,964    6,886    7,146
   44312         Computer & software stores......................         (*)       (*)      (*)    1,635    1,643    1,773    1,711

   444          Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers      61,313    -11.6    23,741   18,528   19,044   25,703   21,783
   4441          Building mat. & supplies dealers................         (*)       (*)      (*)   16,015   16,616   21,802   19,264

   445          Food & beverage stores...........................     140,814     -0.1    47,673   44,392   48,749   48,557   45,351
   4451          Grocery stores..................................     127,060     -0.5    42,888   39,933   44,239   43,824   40,970
   4453          Beer, wine & liquor stores......................         (*)       (*)      (*)    2,959    3,106    3,176    2,976

   446          Health & personal care stores....................      62,399      2.2    21,504   19,985   20,910   20,779   20,078
   44611         Pharmacies & drug stores........................         (*)       (*)      (*)   16,558   17,370   17,184   16,712

   447          Gasoline stations................................      76,454    -34.1    27,115   24,145   25,194   41,281   36,789

   448          Clothing & clothing accessories stores...........      45,569     -6.4    16,541   15,171   13,857   18,119   16,128
   44811         Men's clothing stores...........................         (*)       (*)      (*)      623      652      816      722
   44812         Women's clothing stores.........................         (*)       (*)      (*)    2,417    2,299    3,406    2,785
   44814         Family clothing stores..........................         (*)       (*)      (*)    5,713    5,461    6,751    5,680
   4482          Shoe stores.....................................         (*)       (*)      (*)    1,918    1,663    2,285    1,999

   451          Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores.......      19,367     -1.8     6,449    5,752    7,166    6,649    6,024

   452          General merchandise stores.......................     133,847     -0.3    46,841   43,611   43,395   47,929   44,205
   4521          Department stores (ex. L.D.)....................      40,277     -8.1    14,407   13,169   12,701   15,938   14,490
   4521          Department stores (incl. L.D.)(4)...............         (*)       (*)      (*)   13,523   13,038   16,384   14,891
   4529          Other general merchandise stores................         (*)       (*)      (*)   30,442   30,694   31,991   29,715
   45291          Warehouse clubs & supercenters.................         (*)       (*)      (*)   27,137   27,618   28,442   26,426
   45299          All other gen. merchandise stores..............         (*)       (*)      (*)    3,305    3,076    3,549    3,289

   453          Miscellaneous store retailers....................      26,010     -5.4     8,972    8,620    8,418    9,224    9,025

   454          Nonstore retailers...............................      75,848     -4.7    25,060   24,197   26,591   26,017   25,942
   4541          Electronic shopping & mail-order houses.........         (*)       (*)      (*)   16,346   17,843   16,855   16,401

   722          Food services & drinking places..................     111,291      2.0    38,974   35,593   36,724   38,519   35,632


                (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business.

                (NA) Not available  (a) Advance estimate  (p) Preliminary estimate  (r) Revised estimate

(1)   For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html

(2)   Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample.
      All other estimates are from the MRTS sample.

(3)   GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443),
      clothing & clothing accessories (448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise (452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores (4532).

(4)   Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores.  Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.





TABLE 2A. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--March 2009
Estimates adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes
(Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey,
 Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(*)

                                                                        Mar             Feb
                                                                        2009            2009
                                                                        adv.            prel.
                                                                        from--          from--



   NAICS                       Kind of Business                      Feb     Mar     Jan     Feb
   Code                                                              2009    2008    2009    2008
                                                                     (p)     (r)     (r)     (r)

                Retail & food Services, total....................     -1.1    -9.4    +0.3    -7.9

                  Total (excl. motor vehicle &  parts )..........     -0.9    -6.0    +1.0    -4.5

                        Retail ..................................     -1.1   -10.7    +0.2    -9.2

   441          Motor vehicle & parts dealers....................     -2.3   -23.5    -3.0   -22.0
   4411,4412       Auto & other motor veh. dealers...............     -2.5   -25.9    -3.4   -24.4

   442          Furniture & home furnishings stores..............     -1.7   -13.1    +0.5   -11.4

   443          Electronics & appliance stores...................     -5.9    -9.5    +0.7    -1.4

   444          Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers     -0.6    -9.2    -0.5   -10.5

   445          Food & beverage stores...........................     +0.5    +1.6    -0.1    +1.8
   4451          Grocery stores..................................     +0.4    +1.1    -0.3    +1.2

   446          Health & personal care stores....................     +0.4    +4.4    +0.6    +3.8

   447          Gasoline stations................................     -1.6   -34.0    +3.1   -31.8

   448          Clothing & clothing accessories stores...........     -1.8    -5.1    +2.8    -2.1

   451          Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........    -0.9    -1.5    +0.1    +0.6

   452          General merchandise stores.......................     -0.2    +1.3    +1.2    +2.1
   4521          Department stores (ex. L.D.)....................     -0.3    -5.5    +0.9    -5.8

   453          Miscellaneous stores retailers...................     -2.2    -3.5    +5.7    +0.2

   454          Nonstore retailers...............................     -1.7    -5.0    -0.5    -0.9

   722          Food services & drinking places..................     -1.4    +2.2    +1.1    +4.3


  (p) Preliminary estimate  (r) Revised estimate

  (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1A of this report.





TABLE 2B. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--March 2009
Data not adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences and price changes.
(Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey,
 Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(*)

                                                                        Mar             Feb
                                                                        2009            2009
                                                                        adv.            prel.
                                                                        from--          from--



   NAICS                       Kind of Business                      Feb     Mar     Jan     Feb
   Code                                                              2009    2008    2009    2008
                                                                     (p)     (r)     (r)     (r)

                Retail & food Services, total....................     +9.8   -10.6    -3.2   -11.5

                  Total (excl. motor vehicle &  parts )..........     +8.9    -7.3    -3.9    -8.1

                        Retail ..................................     +9.8   -11.9    -3.2   -12.8

   441          Motor vehicle & parts dealers....................    +14.2   -23.1    +0.3   -25.0
   4411,4412       Auto & other motor veh. dealers................   +14.4   -25.5    +0.4   -27.3

   442          Furniture & home furnishings stores..............     +6.5   -13.0    -2.7   -15.4

   443          Electronics & appliance stores...................     -8.2   -10.0    -1.3    -4.1

   444          Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers    +28.1    -7.6    -2.7   -14.9

   445          Food & beverage stores...........................     +7.4    -1.8    -8.9    -2.1
   4451          Grocery stores..................................     +7.4    -2.1    -9.7    -2.5

   446          Health & personal care stores....................     +7.6    +3.5    -4.4    -0.5

   447          Gasoline stations................................    +12.3   -34.3    -4.2   -34.4

   448          Clothing & clothing accessories stores...........     +9.0    -8.7    +9.5    -5.9

   451          Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........   +12.1    -3.0   -19.7    -4.5

   452          General merchandise stores.......................     +7.4    -2.3    +0.5    -1.3
   4521          Department stores (ex. L.D.)....................     +9.4    -9.6    +3.7    -9.1

   453          Miscellaneous stores retailers...................     +4.1    -2.7    +2.4    -4.5

   454          Nonstore retailers...............................     +3.6    -3.7    -9.0    -6.7

   722          Food services & drinking places..................     +9.5    +1.2    -3.1    -0.1

  (p) Preliminary estimate  (r) Revised estimate

  (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from not adjusted estimates provided in Table 1B of this report.

Current Quarter Retail E-Commerce Sales

Source: Retail Indicators Branch, U.S. Census Bureau | Last Revised: April 14, 2009

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