다음은 1999.06~2009.01 국내 실업률 추이입니다.
추세를 보면, 조만간 5%선의 돌파가 유력하게 전망되는 흐름입니다.

경기개선 선기대감이 무력화되며, 주요 지표나 흐름은 추가적이고 장기적인 경기침체를 시사하고 있기 때문에,
미국증시의 경우에도 절대수치나 단기적인 기술적 반등 여부와 상관없이, 장기간의 추가적인 L자형 침체가 계속될 것으로 현재 전망되고 있습니다. 
그림을 클릭하면 잘 나옵니다.

경기침체가 2008년 하반기부터 본격적으로 악화되고 있고, 2009년 1분기에 추가 악화하고 있어서, 경기가 돌아서는 것이 아니라,  추가로 악화하고 있음

경기부양안의 폭과 속도가 기대에 못미치고 있으며, 경기침체에 대한 대응의 강도가 안이한 모습을 보이고 있음

현상적으로는 미국 금융위기로 가속화된 경기침체가 세계 경제사이클의 본격적인 침체로 이미 전이되었고, 세계 수출입경제의 침체, 내수 경기 침체로
이어져서, 이미 지표들로 나타나고 있음 
(즉, 실물부분으로 침투되었기 때문에, 자체 실물사이클에 따르더라도 빠른 전환 기대가 힘들어졌음)

통상적인 경기사이클 전환의 기대가 난망한 시점에, Spark를 줄 수 있는 경기부양에 대한 기대감이 저물고 있음

일시적 경기침체가 아니라, 1980년 이후 신자유주의와 미국식 금융모델의 전성기가 마감하고 조정 국면에 들어갔다는 인상을 주며, 장기화 전망
(이 점은 새 글로 논하고자 합니다.)

이에 반하여, 시장 심리의 모멘텀 흐름상, 하반기 이후 안정화되어 있던 물가지표가 다시 꿈틀거려서, 이중고(苦)를 불러올 가능성이 높아지고 있음


03.03~03.06 저번주 주요경기 지표 _ 주택건설 침체, 고용침체, 실업률 8.1%, 25년래 사상 최대

저번주 경기지표를 보면, 개인지출, 개인소득은 소폭 늘었지만 기술적 반등에 가깝고, 건설지출과 주택판매는 계속 악화하고 있으며,
비농업고용인수는 대폭적으로 줄어들고 있고, 실업률은 8.1%로 25년래 사상 최대에 이르는 등, 경기가 개선되거나 저점을 잡는 것이 아니라,
추가로 악화하는 모습을 보이고 있습니다.

더욱이 이제부터 개선된다는 보장도 없고, 추가로 더 악화되지 않는다는 보장도 없습니다.

2009년 2번째로 발표된, FRB 3월 베이지북에서는 미국 주요 주(state)에서 경기침체가 추가로 진행되고 있다는 점을 밝히고 있습니다.


03.09~03.13 경기지표 발표일정 _ 소매판매, 기업재고, 수입물가, 소비자 심리 지표 등 발표

소비침체 --> 소매판매 침체 --> 기업생산 부진 --> 재고조정 흐름이 계속되고 있기 때문에,

다음주 발표되는 소매판매, 기업재고 지표도 충격을 줄 가능성이 크다고 보입니다.

또한, 안정화되있던 물가가 시기적인 시장심리적 모멘텀으로 움직이려는 조짐을 보이고 있기 때문에,

물가지표도 이중고를 줄 가능성이 크다고 보이며, 소비자심리는 여전히 위축된 흐름을 보일 것으로 전망됩니다.

이러한 흐름에 따라 하락형 L자에서도 기술적 반등이 동반되더라도 신뢰성이 낮으며,  본질적으로 경기가 확연하게 개선되거나 돌아서는 조짐이 나타나기
전에는 큰 기대는 무리라고 보입니다.

또한, 원/달러환율이 상당히 높은 수준에서, 내국인이 미국에 환전을 통해서 미국주식시장에 직접투자하는 것은 현재 시점에 적절하지 않아보이는데, 이유는
  _ 1) 환전 비용과 환차손이 따르게 되며,
     2) 미국증시가 호전되면, 원달러 환율도 하락할 것으로 보여, 원화로 환산했을시 이익이 상쇄되어, 매매비용만 남는다는 점,
    3) 미국증시가 당분간 크게 호전될 것으로 보이지 않느다는 점 등입니다.

따라서 내국인이 환전을 통해 미국증시에 직접 투자하는 것은 현재 시점에서 자제하는 것이 좋아보입니다.

다음은 미국 실업률 변화입니다. (기간 : 2000.01~2009.03)    

Series Id:           lns14000000






Seasonal Adjusted






Series title:        (Seas) Unemployment Rate






Labor force status:  Unemployment rate






Type of data:        Percent






Age:                 16 years and over

Employment Situation Summary

Technical information:
  Household data:      (202) 691-6378     USDL 09-0224
              http://www.bls.gov/cps/

  Establishment data:  (202) 691-6555     Transmission of material in this release
              http://www.bls.gov/ces/     is embargoed until 8:30 A.M. (EST),
Media contact:         (202) 691-5902     Friday, March 6, 2009.
                                   
                                   
                   THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION:  FEBRUARY 2009

   Nonfarm payroll employment continued to fall sharply in February (-651,000), 
and the unemployment rate rose from 7.6 to 8.1 percent, the Bureau of Labor 
Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today.  Payroll employ-
ment has declined by 2.6 million in the past 4 months.  In February, job 
losses were large and widespread across nearly all major industry sectors.

Unemployment (Household Survey Data)

   The number of unemployed persons increased by 851,000 to 12.5 million in 
February, and the unemployment rate rose to 8.1 percent.  Over the past 12 
months, the number of unemployed persons has increased by about 5.0 million, 
and the unemployment rate has risen by 3.3 percentage points.  (See table 
A-1.)

   The unemployment rate continued to trend upward in February for adult 
men (8.1 percent), adult women (6.7 percent), whites (7.3 percent), blacks 
(13.4 percent), and Hispanics (10.9 percent).  The jobless rate for teen-
agers was little changed at 21.6 percent.  The unemployment rate for Asians 
was 6.9 percent in February, not seasonally adjusted.  (See tables A-1, A-2, 
and A-3.)

   Among the unemployed, the number of job losers and persons who completed 
temporary jobs increased by 716,000 to 7.7 million in February.  This mea-
sure has grown by 3.8 million in the last 12 months.  (See table A-8.)

   The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) 
increased by 270,000 to 2.9 million in February.  Over the past 12 months, 
the number of long-term unemployed was up by 1.6 million.  (See table A-9.)


                               - 2 -

Table A.  Major indicators of labor market activity, seasonally adjusted        
(Numbers in thousands)                                                          
_______________________________________________________________________________ 
                         |                 |                          |         
                         |    Quarterly    |                          |         
                         |     averages    |       Monthly data       |  Jan.-  
        Category         |_________________|__________________________|  Feb.   
                         |        |        |        |        |        | change  
                         |  III   |   IV   |  Dec.  |  Jan.  |  Feb.  |         
                         |  2008  |  2008  |  2008  |  2009  |  2009  |         
_________________________|________|________|________|________|________|________ 
                         |                                                      
     HOUSEHOLD DATA      |                 Labor force status                   
                         |_____________________________________________________ 
                         |        |        |        |        |        |         
Civilian labor force ....| 154,650| 154,648| 154,447| 153,716| 154,214|     498 
  Employment ............| 145,299| 144,046| 143,338| 142,099| 141,748|    -351 
  Unemployment ..........|   9,350|  10,602|  11,108|  11,616|  12,467|     851 
Not in labor force ......|  79,460|  80,177|  80,588|  81,023|  80,699|    -324 
                         |________|________|________|________|________|________ 
                         |                                                      
                         |                 Unemployment rates                   
                         |_____________________________________________________ 
                         |        |        |        |        |        |         
All workers .............|     6.0|     6.9|     7.2|     7.6|     8.1|     0.5 
  Adult men .............|     5.8|     6.8|     7.2|     7.6|     8.1|      .5 
  Adult women ...........|     5.0|     5.6|     5.9|     6.2|     6.7|      .5 
  Teenagers .............|    19.7|    20.7|    20.8|    20.8|    21.6|      .8 
  White .................|     5.4|     6.3|     6.6|     6.9|     7.3|      .4 
  Black or African       |        |        |        |        |        |         
    American ............|    10.7|    11.5|    11.9|    12.6|    13.4|      .8 
  Hispanic or Latino     |        |        |        |        |        |         
    ethnicity ...........|     7.8|     8.9|     9.2|     9.7|    10.9|     1.2 
                         |________|________|________|________|________|________ 
                         |                                                      
  ESTABLISHMENT DATA     |                     Employment                       
                         |_____________________________________________________ 
                         |        |        |        |        |        |         
Nonfarm employment.......| 137,004| 135,727| 135,074|p134,419|p133,768|   p-651 
  Goods-producing (1)....|  21,343|  20,803|  20,532| p20,153| p19,877|   p-276 
    Construction ........|   7,170|   6,949|   6,841|  p6,723|  p6,619|   p-104 
    Manufacturing .......|  13,388|  13,062|  12,902| p12,645| p12,477|   p-168 
  Service-providing (1)..| 115,661| 114,924| 114,542|p114,266|p113,891|   p-375 
      Retail trade (2)...|  15,331|  15,127|  15,038| p14,999| p14,960|    p-40 
    Professional and     |        |        |        |        |        |         
      business services .|  17,730|  17,485|  17,356| p17,222| p17,042|   p-180 
    Education and health |        |        |        |        |        |         
      services ..........|  18,932|  19,035|  19,080| p19,123| p19,149|     p26 
    Leisure and          |        |        |        |        |        |         
      hospitality .......|  13,452|  13,348|  13,304| p13,275| p13,242|    p-33 
    Government ..........|  22,543|  22,538|  22,532| p22,563| p22,572|      p9 
                         |________|________|________|________|________|________ 
                         |                                                      
                         |                  Hours of work (3)                   
                         |_____________________________________________________ 
                         |        |        |        |        |        |         
Total private ...........|    33.6|    33.4|    33.3|   p33.3|   p33.3|    p0.0 
  Manufacturing .........|    40.8|    40.2|    39.9|   p39.8|   p39.6|    p-.2 
    Overtime ............|     3.6|     3.2|     2.9|    p2.8|    p2.6|    p-.2 
                         |________|________|________|________|________|________ 
                         |                                                      
                         |   Indexes of aggregate weekly hours (2002=100)(3)    
                         |_____________________________________________________ 
                         |        |        |        |        |        |         
Total private ...........|   106.1|   104.1|   103.2|  p102.6|  p101.9|   p-0.7 
                         |________|________|________|________|________|________ 
                         |                                                      
                         |                     Earnings (3)                     
                         |_____________________________________________________ 
Average hourly earnings, |        |        |        |        |        |         
  total private .........|  $18.16|  $18.34|  $18.40| p$18.44| p$18.47|  p$0.03 
Average weekly earnings, |        |        |        |        |        |         
  total private .........|  610.90|  612.55|  612.72| p614.05| p615.05|   p1.00 
_________________________|________|________|________|________|________|________ 
                                                                                
   1 Includes other industries, not shown separately.                           
   2 Quarterly averages and the over-the-month change are calculated using      
unrounded data.                                                                 
   3 Data relate to private production and nonsupervisory workers.              
   p = preliminary.                                                             



                               - 3 -

Total Employment and the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)

   The civilian labor force participation rate was about unchanged at 65.6 per-
cent.  The employment-population ratio, at 60.3 percent in February, continued 
to trend down.  The ratio has declined by 2.4 percentage points over the year.  
(See table A-1.)

   In February, the number of persons who worked part time for economic rea-
sons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) rose by 787,000, 
reaching 8.6 million.  The number of such workers rose by 3.7 million over 
the past 12 months.  This category includes persons who would like to work 
full time but were working part time because their hours had been cut back 
or because they were unable to find full-time jobs.  (See table A-5.)

Persons Not in the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)

   About 2.1 million persons (not seasonally adjusted) were marginally at-
tached to the labor force in February, 466,000 more than a year earlier.  
These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a 
job sometime in the prior 12 months.  They were not counted as unemployed 
because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.  
Among the marginally attached, there were 731,000 discouraged workers in 
February, up by 335,000 from a year earlier.  Discouraged workers are per-
sons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are avail-
able for them.  The other 1.3 million persons marginally attached to the 
labor force in February had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding 
the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.  
(See table A-13.)

Industry Payroll Employment (Establishment Survey Data)

   Total nonfarm payroll employment dropped by 651,000 in February.  Since 
the recession began in December 2007, about 4.4 million jobs have been lost, 
with more than half (2.6 million) of the decrease occurring in the last 4 
months.  In February, employment declined in most major industry sectors, 
with the largest losses occurring in professional and business services, 
manufacturing, and construction.  Health care continued to add jobs over 
the month.  (See table B-1.)
   
   Employment in professional and business services fell by 180,000 in
February.  The temporary help industry lost 78,000 jobs over the month.  
Since December 2007, temporary help employment has declined by 686,000, 
or 27 percent.  In February, job declines also occurred in services to 
buildings and dwellings (-17,000), architectural and engineering ser-
vices (-16,000), and business support services (-12,000).

   Widespread job losses continued in manufacturing in February (-168,000).  
The majority of the decline occurred in durable goods industries (-132,000), 
with the largest decreases in fabricated metal products (-28,000) and ma-
chinery (-25,000).  Employment in nondurable goods manufacturing declined 
by 36,000 over the month.

   The construction industry lost 104,000 jobs in February.  Employment 
in the industry has fallen by 1.1 million since peaking in January 2007.  
Two-fifths of that decline occurred over the last 4 months.  Employment 
fell sharply in both the residential and nonresidential components of 
the industry in February.

   Employment in truck transportation declined by 33,000 in February; 
the industry has lost 138,000 jobs since the start of the recession 
in December 2007.  Nearly two-thirds of the decline (-88,000) occurred
over the last 4 months.  The information industry continued to lose
jobs (-15,000).  Over the last 4 months, employment in the industry
has decreased by 76,000, with about two-fifths of the decline occur-
ring in publishing.


                               - 4 -

   Employment in financial activities continued to decline in February
(-44,000).  The number of jobs in this industry has dropped by 448,000
since an employment peak in December 2006, with half of this loss oc-
curring in the past 6 months.  In February, job losses occurred in real 
estate (-11,000); credit intermediation (-11,000); and securities, com-
modity contracts, and investments (-8,000).

   Retail trade employment fell by 40,000 over the month and has declined 
by 608,000 since December 2007.  In February, employment decreased in auto-
mobile dealerships (-9,000), sporting goods (-9,000), furniture and home 
furnishing stores (-8,000), and building material and garden supply stores 
(-7,000).  Employment in wholesale trade fell by 37,000 over the month, 
with nearly all of the decline occurring in durable goods.

   Employment in leisure and hospitality continued to trend down over the 
month (-33,000), with about half of the decrease in the accommodation in-
dustry (-18,000).

   Health care continued to add jobs in February, with a gain of 27,000.  
Job growth occurred in ambulatory health care (16,000) and in hospitals 
(7,000).

   The change in total nonfarm employment for December was revised
from -577,000 to -681,000 and the change for January was revised from
-598,000 to -655,000.  Monthly revisions result from additional sample
reports and the monthly recalculation of seasonal factors.

Weekly Hours (Establishment Survey Data)

   In February, the average workweek for production and nonsupervisory
workers on private nonfarm payrolls was 33.3 hours for the third month
in a row.  Both the manufacturing workweek and factory overtime de-
creased by 0.2 hour over the month to 39.6 and 2.6 hours, respectively.  
(See table B-2.)
   
   The index of aggregate weekly hours of production and nonsupervisory 
workers on private nonfarm payrolls fell by 0.7 percent in February.  
The manufacturing index declined by 2.0 percent over the month.  (See 
table B-5.)

Hourly and Weekly Earnings (Establishment Survey Data)

   In February, average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory 
workers on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 3 cents, or 0.2 percent, sea-
sonally adjusted.  Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings in-
creased by 3.6 percent, and average weekly earnings rose by 2.1 percent.  
(See table B-3.)

                    ______________________________


   The Employment Situation for March 2009 is scheduled to be released
on Friday, April 3, at 8:30 A.M. (EDT).

 
제156회 쇼!음악중심 출연자 안내입니다. 2009.03.07 토요일 쇼음악중심, 다비치가 8282로 컴백하네요 ^^

대한민국 음악의 중심! 쇼!음악중심! 

다음은 미국 FRB가 발표한 미국 베이지북, Beige Book, 2009년 3월호 (2009년 2회차) 입니다.

March 4, 2009

Summary

Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco based on information collected on or before February 23, 2009. This document summarizes comments received from business and other contacts outside the Federal Reserve and is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials.

출처 : http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/beigebook/2009/    ( *이하 거친한글 해석 클릭 )

Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggest that national economic conditions deteriorated further during the reporting period of January through late February.  Ten of the twelve reports indicated weaker conditions or declines in economic activity; the exceptions were Philadelphia and Chicago, which reported that their regional economies "remained weak."  The deterioration was broad based, with only a few sectors such as basic food production and pharmaceuticals appearing to be exceptions.  Looking ahead, contacts from various Districts rate the prospects for near-term improvement in economic conditions as poor, with a significant pickup not expected before late 2009 or early 2010.

Consumer spending remained sluggish on net, although many Districts noted some improvement in January and February compared with a dismal holiday spending season.  Travel and tourist activity fell noticeably in key destinations, as did activity for a wide range of nonfinancial services, with substantial job cuts noted in many instances.  Reports on manufacturing activity suggested steep declines in activity in some sectors and pronounced declines overall.  Conditions weakened somewhat for agricultural producers and substantially for extractors of natural resources, with reduced global demand cited as an underlying determinant in both cases.  Markets for residential real estate remained largely stagnant, with only minimal and scattered signs of stabilization emerging in some areas, while demand for commercial real estate weakened significantly.  Reports from banks and other financial institutions indicated further drops in business loan demand, a slight deterioration in credit quality for businesses and households, and continued tight credit availability.

Upward price pressures continued to ease across a broad spectrum of final goods and services.  This was largely associated with lower prices for energy and assorted raw materials compared with earlier periods, but also with weak final demand more generally, which spurred price discounting for items other than energy and food.  With rising layoffs and hiring freezes, unemployment has risen in all areas, reducing or eliminating upward wage pressures.  A number of reports pointed to outright reductions in hourly compensation costs, through wage reductions and reduction or elimination of some employment benefits.

Consumer Spending and Tourism
Consumer spending remained very weak on balance, albeit with slight firming noted by many Districts, particularly compared with holiday-season sales that were very disappointing.  About half of the Districts reported that consumer demand was softer than during recent reporting periods or fell significantly below levels twelve months earlier.  However, compared with the preceding reporting period that included the holiday season, retail spending was described as "mixed" in the Boston and Richmond Districts, "nearly steady" in Philadelphia, and slightly improved in Cleveland and Dallas, while New York reported a reduced rate of decline compared with the "steep" pace in December.  But San Francisco characterized retail sales as "anemic" and pointed to double-digit sales declines relative to twelve months earlier for many retail outlets.  As reported by Richmond, Chicago, and San Francisco, discount chains fared much better than traditional department stores and specialized retailers, recording sales gains in many cases as consumers continued to switch away from discretionary spending and luxury items and toward basic necessities.

The weakness in discretionary spending was also reflected in relative sales by product type.  Sales of luxury goods such as jewelry, electronic equipment, and other big ticket items were reported to be especially slow in the Philadelphia, Richmond, and Chicago Districts.  Demand for furniture, appliances, and other durable household items remained quite depressed, according to Kansas City and San Francisco.  Sales of new automobiles and light trucks remained exceptionally sluggish, with Philadelphia, Richmond, and Kansas City reporting further declines from an already slow pace of sales.  Used vehicles fared better in general, with Kansas City and San Francisco noting that they were selling well and Cleveland and Chicago reporting improvement over the previous period.  Reports of gains in retail spending were largely limited to grocery stores and pharmacies, although reports from Philadelphia, St. Louis, and Richmond indicated some pickup in sales of apparel, which the latter District attributed in part to severe winter weather.

Travel and tourist activity continued to fall in most areas, as households reduced their vacation travel and corporate travel spending was scaled back.  Tourist visits and spending were reported to be slower than in the previous reporting period or down from twelve months earlier for major tourist destinations in the Richmond, Atlanta, Minneapolis, New York, and San Francisco Districts, with the declines in the latter two characterized as "substantial" and "sharp," respectively.  Airline traffic fell in the Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts.  Business at restaurants dropped substantially in some areas, notably in the Kansas City and San Francisco Districts, with extensive layoffs and restaurant closures reported in the latter.

Nonfinancial Services
Reports on nonfinancial services indicated significant drops in activity accompanied by widespread job cuts.  Providers of health-care services reported falling patient volumes, which were attributed in part to a drop in elective procedures in the Richmond, Minneapolis, and San Francisco Districts.  Demand continued to fall for professional services such as business consulting and accounting services, legal services, and other professional services in various Districts.  However, Dallas noted a modest increase, albeit less-than-expected, in demand for legal services due to increased bankruptcy proceedings.  Providers of information technology (IT) services in the Boston District saw a drop in activity on average, although some firms have sustained strong revenue growth; activity among providers of IT services was reported as stable to up in Kansas City, and Minneapolis reported that some IT services firms have seen solid demand from companies that are intent on using the technology to reduce costs.   Demand for staffing services weakened considerably.  Boston reported that outcomes for providers of temporary staffing services were "dismal," with revenue declines in the range of 20 to 50 percent compared with twelve months earlier.  Chicago and Dallas also reported sizable declines in activity by staffing firms, and New York noted that activity by a major employment agency has "virtually ground to a halt."

Demand for shipping and transportation services fell further.  New York, Cleveland, Richmond, and Atlanta reported reduced activity and layoffs among trucking and rail companies, with the decline in activity described as considerable in some cases.  Richmond also reported that shipping activity through ports in that District slowed further, as imports and exports both continued on a downward trend.

Manufacturing
Manufacturing activity fell on net in all Districts, with very sharp declines recorded for some sectors and only partial offsets provided by the few bright spots.  Cleveland reported a drop in overall factory output of about 25 percent compared with twelve months earlier.  For most Districts, the drop in activity was especially pronounced for makers of capital goods and construction-related equipment and materials, such as primary metals, wood products, and electrical equipment, along with consumer durables such as autos and furniture.  Manufacturers of computers, semiconductors, and other IT products saw further declines in production and orders in the Dallas and San Francisco Districts.  Slower export sales were cited as a source of weakness for various manufacturing sectors by the Atlanta, Chicago, and Kansas City Districts.

Manufacturing of biotechnology products and pharmaceuticals was one bright spot, with Boston reporting sales gains at a double-digit pace for biopharmaceutical firms, Richmond noting continued hiring of temporary staff among life sciences and pharmaceutical companies, and Chicago reporting continued strong demand for pharmaceuticals.  Aircraft manufacturers in the St. Louis District are planning to expand existing production facilities; activity in this sector was largely stable in the Cleveland and San Francisco Districts, but contacts expect some slowing in the future as airlines reduce capacity due to a slowdown in air travel.  Food processers and manufacturers of selected chemicals also saw further increases in demand during the reporting period, according to Philadelphia and San Francisco.

As a result of declining production, capacity utilization fell in most manufacturing sectors, with rates as low as 25 to 50 percent reported for some metal fabricators.  Several Districts reported that capital spending plans were curtailed further during the reporting period, notably for companies in the retail sector and within manufacturing, which suggests the possibility of further reductions in orders for capital goods going forward.

Real Estate and Construction
Residential real estate markets remained in the doldrums in most areas, with only scattered, very tentative signs of stabilization reported.  The pace of sales remained very low in most areas and declined further in some; most Districts reported small declines, but New York cited a sales drop of 60 to 65 percent in Manhattan compared with twelve months earlier.  By contrast, Cleveland, Richmond, Dallas, and San Francisco each reported a rising or better-than-expected sales pace for existing or new homes in some areas, attributed largely to falling prices and improved financing terms for some types of home mortgages.  House prices continued to decline, reportedly at double-digit paces in some areas, with little or no signs of a deceleration evident.  Builders in various Districts generally remain pessimistic regarding recovery prospects this year, and consequently the pace of new home construction declined further in most areas. 

Demand for commercial, industrial, and retail space fell further during the reporting period, with some evidence of more rapid deterioration than in preceding periods.  Vacancy rates rose and lease rates declined on a widespread basis; New York noted that commercial real estate markets "weakened noticeably," while Atlanta described reports on commercial real estate that were "decidedly more negative" than in previous periods.  Construction activity has declined commensurately, and assorted reports suggest that market participants expect this weakness to continue at least through the end of 2009.  Cleveland noted that public works projects have shown stability of late, although they declined in the San Francisco District as a result of the budgetary struggles of some state and local governments there.  Credit constraints and uncertainty were reported to be a drag on commercial construction and leasing activity in the Philadelphia, Chicago, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts.    

Banking and Finance
Lending activity fell further on net, with mixed results across Districts and loan categories.  Demand for commercial and industrial loans was reported to be lower in most Districts, although Philadelphia reported recent growth in this category.  Consumer loan demand also fell in general, although Cleveland reported that it was "stable to up" during the reporting period.  Demand for new mortgages remained depressed, but New York, Cleveland, and Richmond noted that refinancing activity continued at high levels or increased further.  Boston and Cleveland reported that loan demand and the availability of funds were more favorable for community banks than for institutions with a national scope.

The availability of credit generally remained tight.  Lenders continued to impose strict standards for all types of loans, with scattered reports of further tightening and particular scrutiny focused on construction projects and commercial real estate transactions.  Despite stringent standards, Atlanta and Chicago noted that funds were available for well-qualified applicants, and Dallas cited contacts who reported that capital has become more readily available.  Credit quality fell for all loan categories, with declines cited by most Districts with the notable exception of Kansas City, where current loan quality was unchanged and expectations for future quality improved modestly.  New York reported that the deterioration in quality was most pronounced for consumer loans, while Chicago emphasized deterioration in the quality of business loans as a result of rising bankruptcies.  Scattered reports suggested improved liquidity in some credit markets and reductions in interest spreads, with Chicago noting that conditions for the commercial paper and corporate bond markets "improved significantly." 

Agriculture and Natural Resources
Conditions weakened for agricultural producers in various Districts, as demand fell and growing conditions were mixed.  Sales slowed for a variety of tree and row crops, grains, dairy products, and livestock, and some product prices declined significantly.  Dallas and Atlanta reported that sales were undermined by a drop in overseas demand, and the latter District also faced a sharp decline in demand for peanuts resulting from a recent salmonella outbreak at a processing plant.  Planting and growing conditions were mixed within and across Districts, with adequate moisture and favorable temperatures reported for many areas but ongoing drought conditions and restricted water supplies noted by Dallas and San Francisco.  Producers benefited from declining input prices on net, but these were not large enough to offset slower sales and lower product prices, which put downward pressure on profit margins and land values, according to Chicago and Kansas City.

Activity slowed significantly for producers of natural resource products.  Reduced global demand and lower prices for oil have prompted a sharp cutback in oil extraction activity since last fall, with Dallas noting an "unprecedented" decline in the domestic rig count that was largely concentrated in their District.  Respondents from the Kansas City District expect oil extraction activity to fall further as the year proceeds, and Minneapolis noted that natural gas and mining activities also faltered during the reporting period.

Prices and Wages
Upward price pressures were very limited during the reporting period, as a result of lower energy and commodity prices and weak demand for final goods and services across a wide range of sectors.  The lower prices of energy and raw materials generally were passed on and contributed to downward pressure on the final prices of various products, according to Chicago and Dallas.  Prices dropped on selected retail items in the Philadelphia, Kansas City, and San Francisco Districts, as discounting was widespread.  Selected food products were a notable exception to downward price pressures, with Philadelphia reporting that some food processors raised their product prices.  Gas prices rose, but according to Chicago and San Francisco the increase was not large enough to substantially offset the ongoing effects of the net decline from last year's highs.

Upward wage pressures eased in all Districts, as a rising incidence of hiring freezes and continued job cuts increased the degree of labor market slack.  Contacts from various Districts pointed to a higher incidence of wage freezes resulting from the added slack, with a few noting outright wage reductions.  Some employers also reduced compensation by lowering benefit costs, including reduced contributions to employee retirement programs, according to the Philadelphia, Chicago, Minneapolis, and San Francisco Districts.