기업재고/매출 지표(ratio) : 2000~2009.07

기업재고,Business Inventories 월간변화율(%)

기업재고(Business Inventories) 지표를 보면 2008년말 이후로 감소가 지속되고 있습니다.
경기가 활황이어서 물건이 잘 나가서 재고가 없어져서 감소하는 것이 아니라,
경기가 불황이어서 새로 생산되는 물건이 적고, 재고물량만 밀어내고 있으므로, 재고가 감소하고 있다고 볼 수 있습니다.

재고 물량이 소진되는 이런 재고 조정(Inventories Re-adjustment)이 끝나고, 새로운 생산이 촉진될 수 있는 촉매가 분출되어야 경기가 다소 활력을 찾을 것으로 볼 수 있습니다.

그러나, 위 기업재고 월간변화율(%) 그래프 추세를 보면 계속 감소 중이나 추세가 둔화되고 있기 때문에, 일정 시기가 지나면 일단 시기적인 모멘텀은 확보될 것으로 볼 수 있습니다. 문제는 그런 시기가 아니라, 막상 닥쳤을 때의 그 강도라 할 것입니다. 재고조정이 마무리되는 시기에도 지지부진할 것이냐, 아니면 다소 활력의 모멘텀을 찾을 것인가가 향후 적정 시기에 다다랐을 때의 관심사항입니다. 

위의 추세들은 일정 시간이 경과하면 경기 전환의 시기적 모멘텀, 기회를 가질 것으로 당연히 나타내고 있기 때문에, 단기 주가에 아주 악재는 아닙니다. 따라서 다우존스지수(DJIA, 다우지수), 나스닥 지수도 강보합에 일일 마감한 모습입니다.

이하, 통계국(Census Bureau)의 발표내용 요지입니다.

Timothy Winters (Retail): (301) 763-2713                                                                                                                            CB09-106
John Miller (Wholesale): (301) 763-2703
Chris Savage (Manufacturing): (301) 763-4832

MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES AND SALES
May 2009

Sales. The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers' shipments for May, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $966.1 billion, down 0.1 percent (±0.2%)* from April 2009 and down 17.8 percent (±0.5%) from May 2008.

Inventories. Manufacturers' and trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1,368.1 billion, down 1.0 percent (±0.1%) from April 2009 and down 8.0 percent (±0.4%) from May 2008.

Inventories/Sales Ratio. The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of May was 1.42. The May 2008 ratio was 1.27.

HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE ADVANCE REPORT ON MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS

March 2009--------------- Released 8:30 A.M. EDT April 24, 2009
(M3-1(09)-03)
Note: All figures in text are in seasonally adjusted current dollars
For Data - (301) 763-4673
For Questions - Chris Savage or Jessica Young
(301) 763-4832

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in March decreased $1.3 billion or 0.8 percent to $161.2 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This was the seventh decrease in the last eight months and followed a 2.1 percent February increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.6 percent. Excluding defense, new orders also decreased 0.6 percent.

Shipments

Shipments of manufactured durable goods in March, down eight consecutive months, decreased $3.0 billion or 1.7 percent to $175.0 billion. This followed a 0.8 percent February decrease.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in March, down six consecutive months, decreased $11.2 billion or 1.4 percent to $760.3 billion. This followed a 1.6 percent February decrease.

Inventories

Inventories of manufactured durable goods in March, down three consecutive months, decreased $3.7 billion or 1.1 percent to $331.6 billion. This followed a 1.3 percent February decrease.

Capital Goods Industries

Nondefense

Nondefense new orders for capital goods in March increased $1.0 billion or 1.9 percent to $52.0 billion.

Defense

Defense new orders for capital goods in March decreased $1.4 billion or 14.4 percent to $8.6 billion.

Released April 24, 2009. This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers' shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus nondurable goods will be published May 1, 2009. The advance report on durable goods for April is scheduled for release May 28, 2009.

Our internet address is: http://www.census.gov/m3 


- ASSETGUIDE -

다음은 US Business Inventories/Sales Ratio : 2000~2009,  미국 기업재고/매출 비율 입니다. (2009년 3월 12일 발표, 현지)

Timothy Winters (Retail): (301) 763-2713                                                                                                                            CB09-35
John Miller (Wholesale): (301) 763-2703
Chris Savage (Manufacturing): (301) 763-4832

MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES AND SALES
January 2009

Sales. The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for January, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,004.0 billion, down 1.0 percent (±0.4%) from December 2008 and down 14.0 percent (±0.4%) from January 2008.

Inventories. Manufacturers’ and trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1,440.1 billion, down 1.1 percent (±0.1%) from December 2008 and down 1.5 percent (±0.3%) from January 2008.

Inventories/Sales Ratio. The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of January was 1.43. The January 2008 ratio was 1.25.

The Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales Report for February is scheduled to be released April 14, 2009 at 10:00 a.m. EDT.

For information, visit the Census Bureau’s Web site at <http://www.census.gov/bussales>. This report is also available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce’s STAT-USA (202-482-1986).

* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero.

mtis_current.pdf

Table 1. Estimated Monthly Sales and Inventories for Manufacturers, Retailers, and Merchant Wholesalers
(In millions of dollars)

See footnotes and notes at the end of Table 3.

(p) Preliminary estimate.
(r) Revised estimate.

Table 2. Percent Changes for Sales and Inventories--Manufacturers, Retailers, and Merchant Wholesalers

Table 3. Estimated Monthly Retail Sales, Inventories, and Inventories/Sales Ratios, By Kind of Business
(In millions of dollars)

(p) Preliminary estimate.
(r) Revised estimate.

¹ Inventories are on a non-LIFO basis as of the end of the month.
² Adjusted for seasonal variations and, in the case of sales, for trading-day differences and holiday variations. Concurrent seasonal adjustment is being used to adjust all sales, shipment, and inventory estimates. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12-ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are applied to the current and previous month estimates and for retail and wholesale estimates a year ago as well. For retail sales, concurrent seasonal adjustment is also used to adjust the advance estimates (published one month before the preliminary estimates) and the estimates one year before the advance month. This explains the revision to retail estimates from a year ago.
³ Manufacturers sales refer to the value of shipments by manufacturers. The shipments data from individual manufacturers are adjusted prior to tabulation for the number of trading days as well as for any variations in the length of the reporting period.
⁴ The 2002 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) defines merchant wholesalers as including manufacturers' sales branches and offices. However, the estimates included in this release exclude manufacturers' sales branches and offices. Note that this is not a change in coverage from prior releases and is consistent with the description used in the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey data products.

Note: U.S. and group totals include kinds of business not shown. The Manufacturing and Trade Inventory and Sales estimates are based on data from three surveys: the Monthly Retail Trade Survey, the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey, and the Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey. The sampling variability for retailers and merchant wholesalers can be used to construct a 90 percent confidence interval for the estimates. Over all possible samples, 90 percent of such intervals will cover the true estimate. These intervals are given in parentheses for the estimates on the front page. If, for example, the estimate is up 0.8 percent and the margin of sampling error is ±1.2 percent, the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.4 percent to +2.0 percent. If the range contains 0, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. Measures of reliability for Retail and Wholesale sales and inventory levels and changes are included in the detailed monthly press releases for those Industries. Manufacturers do not contribute to estimates of sampling variability because the manufacturer’s mail panel is not a probability sample from a known frame and standard errors of the industry estimates cannot be calculated. Estimates from all three surveys are also subject to nonsampling errors, which can arise in any stage of the survey. Such errors include coverage error (failure to accurately represent all population units in the sample), response errors, coding errors, and nonresponse. Although no direct measurement of these errors has been obtained, precautionary steps were taken in all phases of the collection, processing, and tabulation of the data to minimize their influence.

Source: Retail Indicators Branch, U.S. Census Bureau | Last Revised: March 12, 2009

Timothy Winters (Retail): (301) 763-2713                                                                                                                            CB09-21
John Miller (Wholesale): (301) 763-2703
Chris Savage (Manufacturing): (301) 763-4832

MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES AND SALES
December 2008

Sales. The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for December, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,016.6 billion, down 3.2 percent (±0.2%) from November 2008 and down 11.8 percent (±0.3%) from December 2007.

Inventories. Manufacturers’ and trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1,460.5 billion, down 1.3 percent (±0.1%) from November 2008, but up 0.9 percent (±0.4%) from December 2007.

Inventories/Sales Ratio. The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of December was 1.44. The December 2007 ratio was 1.26.