Reports from the Federal Reserve Banks indicate that overall economic activity contracted further or remained weak. However, five of the twelve Districts noted a moderation in the pace of decline, and several saw signs that activity in some sectors was stabilizing at a low level.

전반적인 경제 활동은 침체를 지속하고 여전히 약세이지만, 12개 지역 중 5개 지역은 침체 속도가 완화하고 있고 미약하지만 몇몇 산업 섹터 활동은 약한 정도로 완화되는 징후가 나타나고 있습니다. 

(*주: 베이지북의 주요 관찰 지역은, Districts 는 Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St.Louis, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, San Francisco 입니다.)

Boston
New York
Philadelphia
Cleveland
Richmond
Atlanta
Chicago
St. Louis
Minneapolis
Kansas City
Dallas
San Francisco

Manufacturing activity weakened across a broad range of industries in most Districts, with only a few exceptions. Nonfinancial service activity continued to contract across Districts. Retail spending remained sluggish, although some Districts noted a slight improvement in sales compared with the previous reporting period. Residential real estate markets continued to be weak. Home prices and construction were still falling in most areas, but better-than-expected buyer traffic led to a scattered pickup in sales in a number of Districts. Nonresidential real estate conditions continued to deteriorate. Difficulty obtaining commercial real estate financing was constraining construction and investment activity. Spending on business travel declined as corporations cut back. Reports on tourism were mixed. Bankers reported tight credit conditions, rising delinquencies, and some deterioration of loan quality.

Agricultural conditions were generally favorable across Districts, although drought conditions persisted in the Dallas and San Francisco Districts. The Districts reporting on energy said reduced demand, high inventories, and lower prices led to steep cutbacks in oil and natural gas drilling and production activity. The Minneapolis, Kansas City, and Dallas Districts noted declines in employment in the oil and gas extraction industry.

Downward pressure on prices was reported across Districts. Wage and salary pressures eased as labor markets weakened in all Districts, and many contacts continued to report job cuts and wage and hiring freezes. Employment continued to decline across a range of industries, with only scattered reports of hiring.

Manufacturing
Manufacturing activity continued to decline in most Districts and across a wide range of industries. Several reports, however, noted that the pace of decline had slowed or that factory activity had stabilized. The Boston, Philadelphia, Richmond, Atlanta, St. Louis, Minneapolis, and San Francisco Districts cited decreases in production. The Chicago and Kansas City Districts said declines in production had slowed. The Cleveland District noted some leveling off in declines in new orders, and the New York and Dallas Districts noted that demand was beginning to bottom out following steep declines. Orders and shipments of capital goods, autos, paper, and construction-related equipment and products such as metals, wood products, lumber and electrical machinery remained mostly sluggish and below year-ago levels, with the Chicago District noting an increase in order cancellations and deferral requests. Aircraft makers in the Chicago District noted declines in demand, while aerospace manufacturers in the San Francisco District reported that a drop in airline passenger traffic and cargo capacity had spurred order cancellations and delivery deferrals.

In contrast, orders and sales of high-tech equipment firmed somewhat at very weak levels in the Dallas and San Francisco Districts. Defense firms in the Boston and Cleveland Districts reported solid activity. Food manufacturers saw sales gains in the Philadelphia and San Francisco Districts, and a food manufacturer in the St. Louis District noted plans to open a new plant. Pharmaceutical firms in the Boston and Chicago Districts continued to see solid demand; petrochemical producers in the Dallas District noted a slight turnaround in operating rates.

Manufacturers' assessments of future factory activity improved marginally over the survey period as well, with contacts in the Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Kansas City Districts noting a slight upturn in the outlook for production and sales. Capital expenditure plans remained on hold across most regions, and the Boston, Philadelphia, and Cleveland Districts noted cuts in capital budgets.

Nonfinancial Services
Districts that report on nonfinancial business services said demand continued to fall across most industries. Providers of health-care services noted further declines in activity, and contacts in several Districts noted demand for professional services, such as architecture, business consulting and legal services, remained weak. Demand for IT services was mixed. Among service firms, there were reports of customers delaying payments or asking for price reductions, and receivables were harder to collect.

While there were scattered reports of optimism, temporary staffing firms generally continued to report weak conditions. Firms in the Dallas District were not renewing contracts on current personnel, and the New York District characterized the supply of available workers as "inexhaustible."

Shipping activity continued to fall over the past six weeks as both domestic and international demand remained dampened. Contacts in several Districts said shipments of construction-related manufacturing products continued to drop at a substantial pace.

Consumer Spending and Tourism
Consumer spending remained generally weak. However, several Districts said sales rose slightly or declines moderated compared with the previous survey period. In particular, the Boston, Cleveland, and Chicago Districts reported an improvement in sales. Purchases of big ticket and luxury items continued to decline while spending on food and necessities fared better. The Philadelphia, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts reported that consumers were looking for value, and were opting for lower-priced, private label products over higher-priced alternatives. Retailers kept inventories lean, in line with the slow pace of sales, and most expect demand to stay at current low levels over the next few months.

Auto dealers continued to struggle, and overall vehicle sales were sluggish in all reporting Districts as weak demand and tight credit continued to limit sales. Used vehicle sales improved slightly in the Boston, Cleveland, Kansas City, and San Francisco Districts, but new car sales remained feeble. Dealers in the Philadelphia District reported difficulty in obtaining financing for inventory purchases, and a few dealerships in the St. Louis District went out of business, but dealers in the Cleveland District reported minimal problems with floor-plan financing. While auto dealers in the Boston, Cleveland, and Kansas City Districts noted some improvements in the outlook, those in the Philadelphia and Dallas Districts expect continued weakness.

Travel and tourism activity contracted further in several reporting Districts, as households and businesses continued to scale back on discretionary and travel spending. Tourist spending in the New York, Minneapolis, and San Francisco Districts saw double-digit declines compared with the prior year. Airlines in the Dallas District and hotel contacts in the Kansas City District reported weakening demand for business travel, while the Atlanta District noted convention cancellations. Restaurants continued to see sluggish activity in the Kansas City and San Francisco Districts, which prompted further layoffs and closures in the latter region. In contrast, mountain resorts in the Richmond District said ski season demand was on par with last year, and cruise liners in the Atlanta District reported that deep discounting spurred bookings.

Real Estate and Construction
Housing markets remained depressed overall, but there were some signs that conditions may be stabilizing. Many Districts said factors such as homebuyer tax credits, low mortgage rates, and more affordable prices led to a rising number of potential buyers. The Richmond, Atlanta, Minneapolis, Kansas City, and San Francisco Districts noted a modest improvement in sales in some areas.

New home construction activity fell further, however, as inventories remained elevated. Nonetheless, several Districts, including Atlanta and Kansas City, said that inventories of unsold homes had turned down slightly.

Home prices continued to decline in most Districts, although a few reports noted that prices were unchanged or that the pace of decline had eased. Low mortgage rates were fueling refinancing activity. Outlooks for the housing sector were generally more optimistic than in earlier surveys, with respondents hopeful that increased buyer interest would lead to better sales.

Nonresidential real estate conditions continued to deteriorate over the past six weeks. Demand for office, industrial and retail space continued to fall, and there were reports of increases in sublease space. Rental concessions were rising. Property values moved lower as reality "set in." Construction activity continues to slow, and several Districts noted increased postponement of both private and public projects. Nonresidential construction is expected to decline through year-end, although there were some hopeful reports that the stimulus package may lead to some improvement.

Commercial real estate investment activity weakened further. Contacts said a decline in credit availability and markdowns on commercial property were keeping buyers and sellers on the sidelines.

Banking and Finance
Most Districts reported weaker loan demand overall, but the reports were mixed across loan categories. In particular, the New York, Richmond, and Kansas City Districts noted an increase in residential real estate loans. Additionally, residential refinancing activity remained brisk, although the loan process was taking longer due to more stringent appraisals and underwriting standards. Demand for commercial and industrial loans was weak, and there were several reports that business borrowers were postponing capital expenditures. Commercial real estate lending continued to decline. Credit availability generally remained very tight across regions. A number of Districts reported deteriorating loan quality and rising delinquencies for all types of loan categories. In particular, several reports noted more stringent requirements for commercial real estate loans due to worries of worsening loan quality in the sector.

Agriculture and Natural Resources
Most regions reported improved planting and growing conditions, with the exception of the Dallas and San Francisco Districts, which are experiencing ongoing drought. Although beneficial, rainfall delayed field preparations for spring planting in the Richmond and Chicago Districts. Contacts in the Chicago District reported that producers had benefited from falling input prices, which are helping farmers obtain loans. Livestock producers in the Chicago, Kansas City, and Dallas Districts continued to be challenged by weak demand and low prices. Low milk prices have resulted in significant financial losses for dairy farmers in the Chicago and Dallas Districts, and have caused producers in the latter region to reduce their dairy cow herds.

Reduced demand, rising inventories, and lower prices for oil and natural gas led to further declines in energy sector activity. Drilling activity fell sharply in the Minneapolis, Kansas City, and Dallas Districts; respondents in the Atlanta and San Francisco Districts reported decreases as well. The Dallas District noted that the number of working U.S. rigs contracted by 300, and more than half of the decline was in Texas. In contrast, production was stable in the Cleveland District; gold mining is strong and wind energy projects moved ahead as planned in the Minneapolis District. Consistent with falling activity, the Minneapolis, Kansas City, and Dallas Districts noted further layoffs in oil and gas extraction. Looking forward, energy contacts in the Cleveland District said that they intend to lower capital spending over the next few months.

Prices
Districts that report on prices noted downward pressures. Oil prices rose during the survey period, although most other commodity prices were stable to down. Manufacturers noted declines in the cost of raw materials and inputs, and product prices were generally said to be steady to down. Significant discounting was reported among retailers, and there were numerous examples of service providers reducing fees. In particular, accounting and legal firms in the Dallas District were responding to customer requests for lower fees, while the San Francisco District found prices were declining for professional services and lodging. Transportation service contacts noted a reduction in prices.

Labor Markets and Wages
Labor market conditions were weak and reports of layoffs, reductions in work hours, temporary factory shutdowns, branch closures and hiring freezes remained widespread across Districts. Staffing firms in the New York, Cleveland, Richmond, Chicago, and Dallas Districts reported that demand for workers remained sluggish. The manufacturing and energy extraction sectors were the most affected but there were numerous reports of job cuts in the retail and services industries as well. The St. Louis District reported payroll declines in information and medical services, while the Cleveland District cited layoffs in transportation and financial services. The Dallas District noted further cuts in the real estate and construction industry; layoffs at major financial firms continued in the New York District; and the Philadelphia District reported that unpaid furloughs had been instituted by state and local governments. In contrast, Districts including Cleveland, Chicago, and Minneapolis reported some hiring in healthcare. Contacts in the Richmond District noted solid demand for technically-skilled professionals and IT and office-support workers. The Chicago and Dallas Districts saw a slight uptick in hiring of finance personnel due to the sharp increase in mortgage refinance activity. The St. Louis District reported that a food manufacturer and some wood and plastic manufacturers planned on expanding their operations and hiring additional staff. The employment outlook is generally bleak. Contacts in several Districts have instituted hiring freezes and anticipate further cuts in jobs and work hours.

Continuing layoffs, furloughs and hiring freezes kept wage pressures minimal. Contacts from a broad range of industries reported pay freezes, with some noting salary reductions. The Minneapolis District reported that unionized faculty at Minnesota's technical and community colleges had tentatively accepted a two-year pay freeze. Contacts in the Boston, Philadelphia, Richmond, Chicago, and San Francisco Districts reported cuts in certain non-wage employment benefits, including cuts in bonuses, elimination or suspension of employer contributions to employee retirement programs, and increases in copayments on employer sponsored healthcare plans.

fullreport20090415_beigebook.pdf

다음은 미국 FRB가 발표한 미국 베이지북, Beige Book, 2009년 3월호 (2009년 2회차) 입니다.

March 4, 2009

Summary

Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco based on information collected on or before February 23, 2009. This document summarizes comments received from business and other contacts outside the Federal Reserve and is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials.

출처 : http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/beigebook/2009/    ( *이하 거친한글 해석 클릭 )

Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggest that national economic conditions deteriorated further during the reporting period of January through late February.  Ten of the twelve reports indicated weaker conditions or declines in economic activity; the exceptions were Philadelphia and Chicago, which reported that their regional economies "remained weak."  The deterioration was broad based, with only a few sectors such as basic food production and pharmaceuticals appearing to be exceptions.  Looking ahead, contacts from various Districts rate the prospects for near-term improvement in economic conditions as poor, with a significant pickup not expected before late 2009 or early 2010.

Consumer spending remained sluggish on net, although many Districts noted some improvement in January and February compared with a dismal holiday spending season.  Travel and tourist activity fell noticeably in key destinations, as did activity for a wide range of nonfinancial services, with substantial job cuts noted in many instances.  Reports on manufacturing activity suggested steep declines in activity in some sectors and pronounced declines overall.  Conditions weakened somewhat for agricultural producers and substantially for extractors of natural resources, with reduced global demand cited as an underlying determinant in both cases.  Markets for residential real estate remained largely stagnant, with only minimal and scattered signs of stabilization emerging in some areas, while demand for commercial real estate weakened significantly.  Reports from banks and other financial institutions indicated further drops in business loan demand, a slight deterioration in credit quality for businesses and households, and continued tight credit availability.

Upward price pressures continued to ease across a broad spectrum of final goods and services.  This was largely associated with lower prices for energy and assorted raw materials compared with earlier periods, but also with weak final demand more generally, which spurred price discounting for items other than energy and food.  With rising layoffs and hiring freezes, unemployment has risen in all areas, reducing or eliminating upward wage pressures.  A number of reports pointed to outright reductions in hourly compensation costs, through wage reductions and reduction or elimination of some employment benefits.

Consumer Spending and Tourism
Consumer spending remained very weak on balance, albeit with slight firming noted by many Districts, particularly compared with holiday-season sales that were very disappointing.  About half of the Districts reported that consumer demand was softer than during recent reporting periods or fell significantly below levels twelve months earlier.  However, compared with the preceding reporting period that included the holiday season, retail spending was described as "mixed" in the Boston and Richmond Districts, "nearly steady" in Philadelphia, and slightly improved in Cleveland and Dallas, while New York reported a reduced rate of decline compared with the "steep" pace in December.  But San Francisco characterized retail sales as "anemic" and pointed to double-digit sales declines relative to twelve months earlier for many retail outlets.  As reported by Richmond, Chicago, and San Francisco, discount chains fared much better than traditional department stores and specialized retailers, recording sales gains in many cases as consumers continued to switch away from discretionary spending and luxury items and toward basic necessities.

The weakness in discretionary spending was also reflected in relative sales by product type.  Sales of luxury goods such as jewelry, electronic equipment, and other big ticket items were reported to be especially slow in the Philadelphia, Richmond, and Chicago Districts.  Demand for furniture, appliances, and other durable household items remained quite depressed, according to Kansas City and San Francisco.  Sales of new automobiles and light trucks remained exceptionally sluggish, with Philadelphia, Richmond, and Kansas City reporting further declines from an already slow pace of sales.  Used vehicles fared better in general, with Kansas City and San Francisco noting that they were selling well and Cleveland and Chicago reporting improvement over the previous period.  Reports of gains in retail spending were largely limited to grocery stores and pharmacies, although reports from Philadelphia, St. Louis, and Richmond indicated some pickup in sales of apparel, which the latter District attributed in part to severe winter weather.

Travel and tourist activity continued to fall in most areas, as households reduced their vacation travel and corporate travel spending was scaled back.  Tourist visits and spending were reported to be slower than in the previous reporting period or down from twelve months earlier for major tourist destinations in the Richmond, Atlanta, Minneapolis, New York, and San Francisco Districts, with the declines in the latter two characterized as "substantial" and "sharp," respectively.  Airline traffic fell in the Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts.  Business at restaurants dropped substantially in some areas, notably in the Kansas City and San Francisco Districts, with extensive layoffs and restaurant closures reported in the latter.

Nonfinancial Services
Reports on nonfinancial services indicated significant drops in activity accompanied by widespread job cuts.  Providers of health-care services reported falling patient volumes, which were attributed in part to a drop in elective procedures in the Richmond, Minneapolis, and San Francisco Districts.  Demand continued to fall for professional services such as business consulting and accounting services, legal services, and other professional services in various Districts.  However, Dallas noted a modest increase, albeit less-than-expected, in demand for legal services due to increased bankruptcy proceedings.  Providers of information technology (IT) services in the Boston District saw a drop in activity on average, although some firms have sustained strong revenue growth; activity among providers of IT services was reported as stable to up in Kansas City, and Minneapolis reported that some IT services firms have seen solid demand from companies that are intent on using the technology to reduce costs.   Demand for staffing services weakened considerably.  Boston reported that outcomes for providers of temporary staffing services were "dismal," with revenue declines in the range of 20 to 50 percent compared with twelve months earlier.  Chicago and Dallas also reported sizable declines in activity by staffing firms, and New York noted that activity by a major employment agency has "virtually ground to a halt."

Demand for shipping and transportation services fell further.  New York, Cleveland, Richmond, and Atlanta reported reduced activity and layoffs among trucking and rail companies, with the decline in activity described as considerable in some cases.  Richmond also reported that shipping activity through ports in that District slowed further, as imports and exports both continued on a downward trend.

Manufacturing
Manufacturing activity fell on net in all Districts, with very sharp declines recorded for some sectors and only partial offsets provided by the few bright spots.  Cleveland reported a drop in overall factory output of about 25 percent compared with twelve months earlier.  For most Districts, the drop in activity was especially pronounced for makers of capital goods and construction-related equipment and materials, such as primary metals, wood products, and electrical equipment, along with consumer durables such as autos and furniture.  Manufacturers of computers, semiconductors, and other IT products saw further declines in production and orders in the Dallas and San Francisco Districts.  Slower export sales were cited as a source of weakness for various manufacturing sectors by the Atlanta, Chicago, and Kansas City Districts.

Manufacturing of biotechnology products and pharmaceuticals was one bright spot, with Boston reporting sales gains at a double-digit pace for biopharmaceutical firms, Richmond noting continued hiring of temporary staff among life sciences and pharmaceutical companies, and Chicago reporting continued strong demand for pharmaceuticals.  Aircraft manufacturers in the St. Louis District are planning to expand existing production facilities; activity in this sector was largely stable in the Cleveland and San Francisco Districts, but contacts expect some slowing in the future as airlines reduce capacity due to a slowdown in air travel.  Food processers and manufacturers of selected chemicals also saw further increases in demand during the reporting period, according to Philadelphia and San Francisco.

As a result of declining production, capacity utilization fell in most manufacturing sectors, with rates as low as 25 to 50 percent reported for some metal fabricators.  Several Districts reported that capital spending plans were curtailed further during the reporting period, notably for companies in the retail sector and within manufacturing, which suggests the possibility of further reductions in orders for capital goods going forward.

Real Estate and Construction
Residential real estate markets remained in the doldrums in most areas, with only scattered, very tentative signs of stabilization reported.  The pace of sales remained very low in most areas and declined further in some; most Districts reported small declines, but New York cited a sales drop of 60 to 65 percent in Manhattan compared with twelve months earlier.  By contrast, Cleveland, Richmond, Dallas, and San Francisco each reported a rising or better-than-expected sales pace for existing or new homes in some areas, attributed largely to falling prices and improved financing terms for some types of home mortgages.  House prices continued to decline, reportedly at double-digit paces in some areas, with little or no signs of a deceleration evident.  Builders in various Districts generally remain pessimistic regarding recovery prospects this year, and consequently the pace of new home construction declined further in most areas. 

Demand for commercial, industrial, and retail space fell further during the reporting period, with some evidence of more rapid deterioration than in preceding periods.  Vacancy rates rose and lease rates declined on a widespread basis; New York noted that commercial real estate markets "weakened noticeably," while Atlanta described reports on commercial real estate that were "decidedly more negative" than in previous periods.  Construction activity has declined commensurately, and assorted reports suggest that market participants expect this weakness to continue at least through the end of 2009.  Cleveland noted that public works projects have shown stability of late, although they declined in the San Francisco District as a result of the budgetary struggles of some state and local governments there.  Credit constraints and uncertainty were reported to be a drag on commercial construction and leasing activity in the Philadelphia, Chicago, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts.    

Banking and Finance
Lending activity fell further on net, with mixed results across Districts and loan categories.  Demand for commercial and industrial loans was reported to be lower in most Districts, although Philadelphia reported recent growth in this category.  Consumer loan demand also fell in general, although Cleveland reported that it was "stable to up" during the reporting period.  Demand for new mortgages remained depressed, but New York, Cleveland, and Richmond noted that refinancing activity continued at high levels or increased further.  Boston and Cleveland reported that loan demand and the availability of funds were more favorable for community banks than for institutions with a national scope.

The availability of credit generally remained tight.  Lenders continued to impose strict standards for all types of loans, with scattered reports of further tightening and particular scrutiny focused on construction projects and commercial real estate transactions.  Despite stringent standards, Atlanta and Chicago noted that funds were available for well-qualified applicants, and Dallas cited contacts who reported that capital has become more readily available.  Credit quality fell for all loan categories, with declines cited by most Districts with the notable exception of Kansas City, where current loan quality was unchanged and expectations for future quality improved modestly.  New York reported that the deterioration in quality was most pronounced for consumer loans, while Chicago emphasized deterioration in the quality of business loans as a result of rising bankruptcies.  Scattered reports suggested improved liquidity in some credit markets and reductions in interest spreads, with Chicago noting that conditions for the commercial paper and corporate bond markets "improved significantly." 

Agriculture and Natural Resources
Conditions weakened for agricultural producers in various Districts, as demand fell and growing conditions were mixed.  Sales slowed for a variety of tree and row crops, grains, dairy products, and livestock, and some product prices declined significantly.  Dallas and Atlanta reported that sales were undermined by a drop in overseas demand, and the latter District also faced a sharp decline in demand for peanuts resulting from a recent salmonella outbreak at a processing plant.  Planting and growing conditions were mixed within and across Districts, with adequate moisture and favorable temperatures reported for many areas but ongoing drought conditions and restricted water supplies noted by Dallas and San Francisco.  Producers benefited from declining input prices on net, but these were not large enough to offset slower sales and lower product prices, which put downward pressure on profit margins and land values, according to Chicago and Kansas City.

Activity slowed significantly for producers of natural resource products.  Reduced global demand and lower prices for oil have prompted a sharp cutback in oil extraction activity since last fall, with Dallas noting an "unprecedented" decline in the domestic rig count that was largely concentrated in their District.  Respondents from the Kansas City District expect oil extraction activity to fall further as the year proceeds, and Minneapolis noted that natural gas and mining activities also faltered during the reporting period.

Prices and Wages
Upward price pressures were very limited during the reporting period, as a result of lower energy and commodity prices and weak demand for final goods and services across a wide range of sectors.  The lower prices of energy and raw materials generally were passed on and contributed to downward pressure on the final prices of various products, according to Chicago and Dallas.  Prices dropped on selected retail items in the Philadelphia, Kansas City, and San Francisco Districts, as discounting was widespread.  Selected food products were a notable exception to downward price pressures, with Philadelphia reporting that some food processors raised their product prices.  Gas prices rose, but according to Chicago and San Francisco the increase was not large enough to substantially offset the ongoing effects of the net decline from last year's highs.

Upward wage pressures eased in all Districts, as a rising incidence of hiring freezes and continued job cuts increased the degree of labor market slack.  Contacts from various Districts pointed to a higher incidence of wage freezes resulting from the added slack, with a few noting outright wage reductions.  Some employers also reduced compensation by lowering benefit costs, including reduced contributions to employee retirement programs, according to the Philadelphia, Chicago, Minneapolis, and San Francisco Districts.

다우존스는 회복세를 보여야할 최소 주간에 기술적 반등에 실패, 하락의 에너지를 쌓으면서, 4차 갭다운(gap-down) 문턱에 진입하였습니다.
5,000p대로 하락이 진행될 것으로 보이므로, 주식 비중을 일괄적으로 축소합니다.

2.23~2.27 다우존스(DJIA, Dowjones Index) 흐름
결국 2009년 연초부터 회복세가 나타나지 못하고 결과적으로는, 9,000p로부터 일관된 후퇴파가 나타나고 있습니다.

현재 7,000p 붕괴의 문턱에 진입해 있으나, 추가 붕괴를 암시하고 있습니다.

주간 흐름의 경우에도 반등다운 반등없이, 주 중반경에 기술적 반등에 머무르며,
주말경 재차 7,000p의 문턱에 도달한 모습입니다.

일관된 하락파가 진행되며, 추가붕괴를 앞두고 있는 모습

2.23~2.27 주요 경기지표 _ 계속 악화되고 있는 경기지표, 시장은 약세로 반영
지난주 경기지표는 주간 전망에서 살펴본 바와 같이, 계속 악화되는 모습을 보이고 있습니다.
소비자컨피던스는 계속 악화하고 있으며, 주택판매도 저조하고, 실업률은 다시 오르고 있고, 내구재 주문도
최악의 흐름을 지속하고 있습니다. 예비 분기GDP의 경우 -6% 이상이 전망되고 있습니다.

미국 당국의 정책 대응은 너무 속도가 느리고 안이한 형태를 보이고 있다고 생각됩니다.

적어도, 경제에서만큼은 느슨해진 미국, 안이하고 해태한 미국의 태도로부터 이런 사태가 촉발한 것이므로,

이런 위기를 극복하기 위해서는 자신들의 도덕성과 근면성을 되돌아보아야 할 것이나,
그러한 폭과 속도, 내용도 지연되면서,
과연 미국조차도 적정 시기에 돌아설 수 있을가에 대해서 회의감을 불러 일으키고 있습니다.

3.02~3.06 주요 경기지표 발표일정 _소비, 고용, 베이지북, 실업률 지표 등 발표되며 시장 충격 전망
다음주에는 주요 소비, 고용 지표, 베이지북(Beige Book), 실업률 지표 등이 발표됩니다.

저번주에 악화된 경기지표를 시장이 약세와 7,000p 붕괴의 문턱 진입으로 반응했기 때문에,

다음주에 추가 악화될 것으로 보이는 경기지표에 따라서, 다우존스의 경우, 다음주부터 7,000p를 붕괴시키고,
6,000p대는 물론, 저점권을 확인하기 위해 5,000p대로 진입해 갈 것으로 보입니다.
 
따라서, 밴드권의 운동이 아니라 상당한 추가 하락과 시간적 하락횡보국면이 전망되므로,
주식비중도 기존의 2/5 스탠스에서 절반 이하로 월요일 시초가로 줄일 예정입니다.

전반적으로 보면, 적정 반등 시점에 반등하지 못하며, 시장은 기존추세와 에너지적으로 단절하는 흐름이 나타나고 있습니다.
즉, 새로운 에너지의 추세로 중장기의 하락횡보가 나타날 가능성이 높아지고 있습니다.

문명사적으로 보면, 당분간 주식의 시대가 저물고 있습니다. 이는 새 글로 살펴보고자 합니다.

2.23~2.27 주요 경기지표
Durable Good Orders, 내구재주문의 변화
2008년 연초부터 전혀 개선의 기미가 나타지 않고 있으며, 2008년 중반부터 최근에 이르기까지 계속 악화되고 있음

전략, Position & Strategy
현재 2/5~3/5 비중인 주식에 대한 잠정적 투자 비중을 절반으로 줄입니다.
즉, 2/5 --> 1/5 수준으로 줄입니다.

당초의 경기개선 속도에 대한 기대가 무산되었고, 기술적으로 상당폭의 추가하락이 전망되므로, 누적평가손익에 상관없이, 당분간 일괄적으로 주식비중을 절반으로 줄입니다. 월요일 시초가로 단행할 예정입니다.

눌림목 주간에 60일선 탄성력 확보하는 깊은 눌림목 발생
주중반 미국시장 밴드하단 충격파로 주후반까지 눌림목 연장

[일간 추세]
저번주 주간전망에서 살펴본 바대로, 주초반 눌림목이 나타나, 화요일 중후반을 기점으로 돌아서려고 했으나, 
수요일 미국시장이 소매판매(Retail Sales),  베이지북(Beige Book) 경기지표 내용으로,  
다시 8,000p 밴드 최하단까지 치고올라서는 깊은 눌림목을 준 관계로, 

이에 따른 영향으로, 목요일, 금요일 60일선을  다시 충분히 터치하고 다시 올라서는 흐름입니다.

저번주에 눌림목을 활용하여, 개인들은 다시 매수를 늘렸는데, 좋은 현상이라고 보이며, 매수진입의 기회로
잘 활용하였을 것으로 생각합니다. 

흐름을 보다싶이, 적어도 2분기이내에 코스피에서는 장기추세의 복원이 확연히 나타날 것으로 전망되고 있습니다. 
따라서, 매수비중이 목표치 대비 낮거나, 진입이 없으신 경우, 다음주 초반에 중장기적 진입을 권장합니다.


20주선 반년만에 최초 접촉이후, 눌림목 나타났으나
2주차까지 깊게 눌려, 눌림목 주간 마무리하고, 반등 추세 복귀 전망

[주간 추세]
주봉상 20주선 = 전주 1,220p대를 터치한 이후, 기술적 눌림목 주간이 나타났습니다. 
지수가 낮아지고, 눌림목을 주면, 중기적으로 제한적 매수비중을 채워두는 것이 좋습니다. (2/5~3/5 비중 적절)
주간종가가 1,330p대로 2차 BUY ZONE 구역에서는 아랫 구역이므로, 여전히 매수 구역으로 유망하다고 할 수 있습니다.

기업실적이나 경기는 원래 사이클을 타는 것입니다. 
주식의 시작은 호시절이 아니라, 최악의 시절에 점진적으로 하시는 것이 좋습니다.

주말에 북한변수 있었으나, 8년만에 미국정권 교체기와 더불어, 존재감 표출하는 것으로, 특별한 영향력은 없습니다.
 _ 북한변수가 주식시장에 본질적으로 영향준 적 없고, 시장이 하락세로 돌아선 적도 없습니다. 
    (오히려 저가매수 기회만 제공)


5개월 최초 터치 이후 눌림목 주간 보내며 아랫꼬리도 형성
월봉 양봉 이어갈 것으로 전망되므로, 월중후반 상승세 전망

[월간 추세]
지수는 현재 저점구간에서 저점의 견실한 다지기를 끝내고, 완연하게 완만하게 이동해 가고 있는 흐름입니다. 
일차적으로 5개월선이 저항으로 작용하였으나, 일시적이고, 
60개월선 부근까지는 언제든지 즉각적인 반등의 가능성을 가지는 여유로운 공간입니다.

월봉상 아랫꼬리까지 달고, 갭도 없는 상태에서, 원점수준이므로, 월중후반은 상승회복세가 무난합니다. 
시간이 흐르는 것은 자연적 호재라 볼 수 있습니다.

정권, 정책 내용 여전히 기대 충족 못하고 있지만, 작년말 G20 이후로 추가적인 사고는
안치고 있다고 보이므로, 잠정적으로 현재 중립 관찰 단계입니다. _ 경제팀도 교체 예정

이러한 상태에서 기술적으로는 확연한 추세적 전환도  1~2분기내에 조만간 가능할 것으로 엿보이고 있습니다.
눌림목 지수 밴드에서 지속적 분할 매수로, 목표 비중 확보 (2/5~3/5 비중까지 선택적)

기술적 반등 주간을 마무리한 원/달러, 원/엔 환율은 당분간 원래 가던 길대로 하락세를  이어갈 것으로 보입니다.

그림을 클릭하면 잘 나옵니다.

20주선을 따라, 20주 이평선 하회에 저항하고 있으나, 기술적 반등의 에너지가 쇄락,
하락세로 접어들 것으로 기대되는 모습

[ 원/엔 환율 ]
 원달러와 기본적인 추세 매커니즘은 동일하다고 할 수 있습니다.
 전주의 주간전망에서 살펴본 바와 같이, 저번주말 이미 60일이평선을 돌파해 놓은 상태에서, 60일선 윗선에서 한 주간을 운동하며,
 주간 주식시장 약세의 절정국면에서 1,500원대 중반까지 치솟으며 피크를 쳤으나,
 시장의 전환과 함께, 장대음봉으로 60일선 밑으로 밀려 내려온 모양입니다.
 원엔환율도 다시 120일선에 다다르는 하락세로 접어들었다고 볼 수 있겠습니다.
 또한 11월초반의 왼쪽 어깨에 미달하고 있으므로, 잠정적으로 중기적으로도 하락세로 전환될 것으로 보입니다..

주봉의 경우에도, 전주 주간전망에서 살펴보았듯이,
갭상승을 동반한 별(star)형으로 한주를 출발하여,
결국 윗꼬리를 길게단 음봉으로 마무리한 흐름입니다. 하락세 전환으로 20주선까지 하회흐름이 일단
유력합니다.

[ 엔/달러 환율 ]
 전주의 주간전망에서 살펴보았듯이, 저번주는 다우존스가 눌림목, 약세구간이 나타날 것으로 보여,
 엔달러도 하락압력을 받을 것으로 전망되었는데,
 수요일 다우존스가 소매판매(Retail Sales), 베이지북과 같은 경기지표의 영향으로 박스권 최하단까지 과도하게 밀렸다 올라온 이유로,
 엔달러도 주간으로는 90엔을 주중반에 살짝 깨고, 다시 90엔 윗선으로 올라선 흐름입니다.
 주식시장의 일시적 약세에 따라 90엔 밑선을 살짝 갔다 오기는 했지만, 향후의 전망과 흐름을 볼 때, 90엔 밑선은 다소 힘들지 않을까 합니다.

저번주 주간전망에서 살펴본 바대로,
주초반 제한적 약세이후 주중반 전환 흐름이
나타난 모습입니다.
일단 90엔대를 잠정적 저점권으로 하여
다시 상방으로의 변화나 기회를 도모할 것으로
보입니다.

차후에 9,000p 저항의 밴드를 무난하게 돌파하기 위해서는, 경기지표의 확인을 요구하고 있습니다.
즉, 경기지표에 대한 선기대감 무산으로 밴드 내로 다시 밀려내려왔기 때문에, 경기지표의 움직임은 밴드상단을 돌파하기 위해서는 변수(factor)화 되었다고 볼 수 있습니다.
지수의 선(先,pre) 운동 경향성을 고려할 때, 분명하게 나타날 필요는 없지만, 적어도 그 단서는 발견되어야 한다는 컨센서스가 녹아들었다는 점입니다.
그림을 클릭하면 잘 나옵니다.

[밴드돌파를 위해서는, 경기지표의 확인, 혹은 그 단서를 요구]

저번주 Weekly Brief에서 이미 살펴본 바, 미국시장은 이미 혼조장세, 눌림목 장세가   전망되었는데, 
주초반의 눌림목을 마치고, 주중반부터 바로 돌릴 수도 있었으나, 

수요일에 발표된 소매판매, Retail Sales 지표와 Federal Reserve의 미국경기상황에 대한 베이지북, Beige Book의 내용이 충격을 주면서,
일간으로 추가적인 하락세로 반영되었고,  

이러한 영향력으로 목표일 8,000p까지 찍고, 박스권밴드의 하단을 다시 터치하고 올라선 흐름입니다. 

미국 금융주의 실적악화, 구제금융 등 2008년을 짓눌렀던 변수들이 여전히 떠오르는 듯 하나, 이러한 변수들은 이미 연중행사로 지수와 시장에 반영되어 있는 것입니다. 

또한, 이러한 상황에 대해서 줄기차게 대응해왔고, 정책적 대응과 태도도 분명하기 때문에, 이러한 요인이 2009년에 추가적 충격을 주기에는 다소 난망하다 할 것입니다.

다만, 미국경기가 언제 하락세를 멈추고, 잠정적으로 회복을 향한 전환점을 만들 것인가 압니다.

속도의 문제인 것이지,  지수자체는 이미 충분히 빠져 있으므로 중기적 관점에서 보유비중을 적절하게 잘 관리하고, 시간적으로 여유롭게 대응하면 좋을 것입니다.
  _저금리이므로, 금융기회비용이 하락요인 안됩니다.


다우존스 8,600p  --> 8,000p, 나스닥 1,600p  --> 1,450p 까지 박스권 하단 회전 

주중에 다우존스는 8,600p에서 8,000p까지 나스닥은 1,600p에서 1,450p까지 박스권 하단 회전 후에 주후반 다시 돌아서는 흐름입니다.


1.13~1.16 주요 경기발표 내용 _ 12월 소매판매 기대감 무산, 베이지북 여전한 경기침체 상황 제시

물가지표는 안정화되는 가운데, NBER이 밝힌 미국경기침체기가 2007년 12월부터 이제 1년이 넘어가므로, 
2008년 12월 경기지표 하강세 완화에 대한 기대감이 있었는데, 소매판매(Retail Sales)지표가 예상치를 만족하지 못하는 재하락추세로 시장에 충격을 주었습니다. 

Federal Reserve의 베이지북 또한 일부지역을 제외하고는 미국의 여전한 경기침체 상황을 제시하며, 향후 적극적인 정책적 대응을 촉구하였습니다.


1.18~1.24 주요 경기발표 일정 _ 월요일 마틴루터킹 데이 휴장 

다음주에는 특별한 지표는 없습니다. 
월요일에 미국시장은 마틴 루터 킹 데이로 휴장합니다.

지수가 경기지표에 대한 선기대감 무산으로, 8,500p 중심선으로부터도 벗어나 8,000p대까지 밀려서 올라오는 국면이므로, 
다음주에는 박스권 운동으로,  하단에서 박스권 중심 8,500p로 접근해 가는흐름이 무난해 보입니다.

그러나 경기지표 변수(factor)로 9,000p대에서 밀려내려왔으므로, 

경기지표의 잠정적인 호전세 없이는 당분간 8,000~9,000p 박스권을 벗어나지 못한다는 의지를 표명한 것으로 볼 수 있어,

이러한 밴드를 당분간 즉각적으로 돌파하지는 을 것으로 보입니다. 

다만, 지수가 최초충격파로 전주에 이미 8,000p를 찍고 왔기 때문에, 박스권하단으로 가기보다는, 
지그재그(음양) 패턴상 잠정밴드에서 중심이나 중상단으로 움직일 가능성이 유력합니다.


미국 Retail Sales, 소매판매 변화 (전월, 월간, 수정 전)

2009년 1월에 발표된, 2008년 12월 소매판매(Retail Sales)가 전망치 -1.2%와는 달리 실제 -2.7%로 나와서, 전월에 비해 다시 악화된 국면으로, 
미국 경기가 최소 2008년 12월을 기점으로 회복세로 전환되지는 않았다는 점을 의미 _ 즉, 선기대감에 따른 실망세가 나타났다고 볼 수 있음
  __ 이러한 분위기는 2009년 1분기, 미국경기의 지배적 흐름이 될 것으로 전망
  __ 그러나, 이미 최악의 상황이라는 것을 알고 있고, 다만 그 전환적 시점이 언제일 것인가가 관심사로 극도의 비관은 자제하는 것이 좋은 시점

ZDE0OTM4YTYwYjk4YTVhYjZkOWNmMWFjNTBkYjliZGY=

그림을 클릭하면 잘 나옵니다.
* 2008년 12월 월간소매판매 지표가 개선되지 않아, 2007년 12월부터 진행된 경기침체의 전환신호에 대한 선기대감이 무산되며,
  일중으로 실망감을 반영, 다시 8,000p대 하단영역으로 후퇴한 모습입니다.

 지표 선기대감 무산으로 다시 하단으로 밀려 
  _2008년 12월 월간소매판매 변화, -2.7% 하락
  _2009년 1월 베이지북, 여전한 경기침체 시사 
 
2008년 12월 월간소매판매, Retail Sales 월간변화  예상을 -1.2%로 감소율축소로 전망하고 있었는데,
실제로 -2.7%로 다시 눌림목이 나와서,  이러한 지표의 실망감을 반영하여,  8,500p 중심에서 다시 하단으로 밀려난 형국입니다.

선기대감이 무산되고, 지표가 실망감을 주었기 때문에, 일간으로 약세를 인정할 수 밖에 없습니다.

1월 Federal Reserve 베이지북의 경우, 여전한 경기침체를 제시하고 있고, 특히 자동차판매가 상당히 안좋다고 보고하고 있습니다.

다만, 이러한 지표들은 2008년 12월까지의 후행지표이므로 과도한 낙담은 필요없어 보입니다.

지수는 이미 충분히 빠져있기 때문에, 실망감으로 다시 하단에 근접하기는 했지만, 여기서 추가로 밀리기를 기대하는 것은 어렵다고 보입니다.

그러나 회복세에 대한 실망감이 표출되었기 때문에,  즉각적인 조속한 급등은 다소 난망하므로, 
여유로운 시간을 가지고, 최소 1~2분기 이상의 관점에서, 제한적 매수의 비중을 유지하여 나가는 것이 우월한 전략이라고 생각됩니다.

즉, 매도가 아닌 저가매수의 관점이 올해 1분기 및 상반기에 계속 취해야할 전략적 스탠스로 볼 수 있겠습니다.