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미국 FRB의 베이지북 Beige Book, 2009년 10월호가, 10월 21일(현지) 발표되었습니다.
베이지북은 미국의 경제상황, 경기동향을 보여주는 중심지표로 연간 8회 작성, 공개되는데, 2009년 7번째에 해당합니다.
2009년 마지막 베이지북 발표는 2009년 12월 2일로 예정되어 있습니다.
이번 베이지북에서 FRB는 보고서 작성의 기초 대상이 되는 연방 12개 지역에서 경기는 안정화와 개선세가 나타나고 있다고 밝혔습니다. FRB는 지난 9월 9일 베이지북에서 미국 경기가 "개선세를 보이고 있다"고 이미 분명하게 밝힌 바 있습니다.
이번 보고서에서는, 주택용 부동산 시장과 제조업의 개선세가 확연해지고 있다고 지적했습니다.
반면에, 상업용 부동산 시장은 여전히 가장 침체한 부분으로 지적하고 있습니다.
물가와 임금상승 압박은 크지 않은 가운데, 안정적인 수준을 계속 유지하고 있다고 합니다.
베이지북(Beige Book)은 지역 연방은행들이 수집한 미국 각 12개 지역의 경기동향을 요약한 자료로,
미국 경제상황을 보여주는 핵심지표로 작용하며, 연방준비은행 FRB, Federal Reserve Bank가 발표합니다.
이들 12개 지역은 Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, San Francisco 입니다. (보스톤, 뉴욕, 필라델피아, 클리브랜드, 리치몬드, 아틀란타, 사카고, 세인트루이스, 미네아폴리스, 캔사스시티, 댈라스, 샌프라시스코)
fullreport20091021.pdf첨부 : FRB 베이지북 보고서 전문 파일(2009.10.21 Begie Book)
Summary
Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and based on information collected before October 13, 2009. This document summarizes comments received from businesses and other contacts outside the Federal Reserve and is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials.
전문요지
Reports from the 12 Federal Reserve Districts indicated either stabilization or modest improvements in many sectors since the last report, albeit often from depressed levels. Leading the more positive sector reports among Districts were residential real estate and manufacturing, both of which continued a pattern of improvement that emerged over the summer. Reports on consumer spending and nonfinancial services were mixed. Commercial real estate was reported to be one of the weakest sectors, although reports of weakness or moderate decline were frequently noted in other sectors.
Reports of gains in economic activity generally outnumber declines, but virtually every reference to improvement was qualified as either small or scattered. For example, Dallas cited slight improvements residential real estate and staffing firms, while New York noted gains only in a few sectors (predominantly manufacturing and retail). Retail and manufacturing conditions were mixed in Boston, but some signs of improvement were reported. New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, and San Francisco cited small pickups in manufacturing activity. In the Kansas City District, an uptick was noted in technology firms, while services firms posted revenue gains in Richmond. However, conditions were referred to as stable or flat for business services and tourism firms in Minneapolis and agriculture in St. Louis and Kansas City.
The weakest sector was commercial real estate, with conditions described as either weak or deteriorating across all Districts. Banking also faltered in several Districts, with Kansas City and San Francisco noting continued erosion in credit quality (often with more expected in the future). One bright spot in the banking sector was lending to new homebuyers, in response to the first-time homebuyer tax credit. Finally, labor markets were typically characterized as weak or mixed, but with occasional pockets of improvement.
Districts generally reported little or no increase to either price or wage pressures, but references to downward pressures were occasionally noted. While upward price pressures were generally subdued in most Districts, materials prices increased in Cleveland (mainly for steel) and Kansas City. Manufactured goods prices were flat to up slightly in Boston. Boston reported that in some market segments "product competition and customer clout are leading to downward pressure on prices." Minimal wage pressures were noted in Cleveland and Minneapolis.
부문별 내용
Consumer Spending and Tourism 소비 지출, 여행
Consumer spending remained weak in most Districts since the last report, although some improvements were noted. Chicago reported a continued decrease but at a slower rate than in the previous reporting period, and retailers maintained low inventories. Richmond reported flat or declining sales; Dallas indicated sales were largely unchanged. However, Dallas reported unexpected weakness at value-based retailers. Sales were mixed, according to Boston, St. Louis, and Kansas City, with Kansas City citing strong sales of cold weather apparel and lower-priced goods. San Francisco remarked that sales were little changed, with the exception of an increase in furniture sales. Although New York observed weak sales in upstate New York, general merchandise retailers in the City were ahead of plan and same-store sales were roughly on par with a year earlier. Boston noted that large-scale retailers had cut inventory due to weak sales. Philadelphia saw a pickup in back-to-school shopping. Cleveland observed that consumers were very price-sensitive and inventories were lean; nonetheless, sales were flat or slightly improved.
The "cash-for-clunkers" program ended in August, leaving depleted inventories and slower sales in its wake. New vehicle sales declined in New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco. However, Chicago reported a pick-up in vehicle sales in early October. Low new-car inventories helped to move used cars in several Districts, although San Francisco commented that the demand for used cars also weakened. New York also reported that automobile dealers saw some improvement in credit conditions for consumers looking to purchase cars.
Looking to expectations for holiday sales, Chicago anticipated improved sales, while Philadelphia retailers expected consumers to limit spending. However, Third District merchants also noted that store traffic increased recently. Atlanta reported that two-thirds of contacts expected flat or declining sales over the next three months.
Tourist activity varied across Districts. Boston, New York, and Atlanta described business travel as extremely soft, whereas Richmond observed solid growth in group bookings. Occupancy rates held steady in New York, spurred by increased leisure visitors, while aggressive discounting boosted cruise-line occupancy rates in Atlanta. San Francisco reported a deep slide in hotel and resort visits in Southern California and Las Vegas, but noted a continued firming of occupancy rates in Hawaii. Richmond indicated overall bookings were much improved over last year, while Kansas City reported occupancy rates remained below year-ago-levels. Room rates continued to decline in several Districts, including New York and Atlanta. In contrast, Boston said that hotels were offering dramatic promotional deals and discounts on local attractions, which preserved posted room rates.
Nonfinancial Services 비금융 서비스
Nonfinancial services firms had mixed reports in recent weeks. Kansas City observed increased demand for high-tech services and Richmond noted generally increased revenues, particularly in telecommunications and healthcare services. Demand for healthcare services also picked up in the Boston District. Minneapolis observed that activity in nonfinancial services firms was mostly flat at low levels, although technology consultants reported an uptick and competition heated up among engineering firms. In contrast, San Francisco contacts indicated that demand for services in general fell, and elective medical procedures were being deferred. St. Louis noted that revenues declined at several large firms in business support services.
Transportation services activity generally declined, although Cleveland and Chicago reported some strengthening. Atlanta observed weak transportation demand overall, and firms in the San Francisco District indicated that trucking had declined. Import demand in the Dallas District fell, leading to a reduction in cargo volumes at intermodal firms. Activity in the transportation sector was flat, according to Kansas City. In contrast, the cash-for-clunkers program helped to clear dealership lots, which prompted dealers to restock their depleted inventories and drove up car shipments. Chicago reported that trucking shipments increased, although the level of activity remained low, and Cleveland's contacts cited an uptick in freight transport volume in recent weeks. Cleveland also noted that trucking companies planned substantial equipment purchases through the first quarter of 2010. Business travel by air declined since the last report, according to San Francisco, while airlines in the Dallas District reported stabilized demand--albeit at low levels.
Manufacturing 제조업
Most Districts reported that manufacturing activity was generally stronger since the last report. New York, Richmond, Minneapolis and Kansas City all noted a further pickup in production, while Philadelphia, Cleveland, Chicago and San Francisco mentioned slight-to-moderate increases. Growth rates varied by industry, however, and some Districts experienced little or no overall increase. Boston reported that manufacturing activity was mixed, but had stabilized or shown modest improvement in certain industries. Similarly, Dallas said overall demand in manufacturing was flat at weak levels albeit with pickups in the high-tech, food, and petrochemical industries. St. Louis indicated that manufacturing continued its net decline, and Atlanta noted moderate declines in orders and production. Some Districts (Boston, Richmond and Chicago) mentioned that year-over-year drops in new orders of housing-related products had abated. Cleveland, Richmond, and Chicago reported substantial increases in auto and parts production, which were attributed primarily to restocking dealers' and manufacturers' inventories. Accordingly, lean inventories and stronger demand from the auto sector led to an increase in steel production in the Cleveland and Chicago Districts.
Comments on the near-term outlook varied across Districts. Boston, Philadelphia, Cleveland, and Kansas City reported that their contacts expected only slight gains and modest economic growth during the next six months. Therefore, capital spending plans remained subdued, and centered mostly on new product development or cost reduction. Dallas indicated that planned projects and routine maintenance were being deferred to conserve capital. New York, however, reported that respondents were increasingly optimistic about the near-term outlook and expected to hire more workers and spend more on capital.
Real Estate and Construction 부동산, 건설
Most Districts reported that housing market conditions improved in recent weeks, primarily from a pickup in sales of low- to middle-priced houses. Contacts reported that sales were boosted by the government's tax credit for first-time homebuyers. Resale activity also edged up in parts of the New York District, although prices continued to be depressed due to a substantial volume of foreclosures and short sales. New and existing home sales remained flat in the Philadelphia District, and home sales continued to decline throughout the St. Louis District. Sales of higher-priced homes were very slow, according to Philadelphia, Cleveland, and Kansas City. Moreover, real estate agents in the Boston and Cleveland Districts were uncertain about the future of home sales once the tax credit expires. Availability of financing continued to be a concern for potential buyers in the Cleveland and Chicago Districts.
Residential construction activity remained weak in most Districts. Atlanta reported that construction remained very low, and Cleveland expected new home construction to proceed at a slow pace. Chicago indicated that construction on existing developments edged up, but St. Louis reported that construction activity declined. Kansas City reported that housing starts stabilized, although levels remained well below a year ago and were not expected to improve over the next three months. Philadelphia noted that builders continued to offer increased incentives to boost sales.
Commercial real estate continued to weaken across the 12 Districts, although even this sector had scattered bright spots. Each District indicated that demand for private commercial real estate was weak, with New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Kansas City, and San Francisco all characterizing activity as declining further since the last report. An inability to obtain credit was often cited as a problem for businesses that wanted to purchase or build space. High vacancy rates were noted as a key concern especially for landlords who were not offering concessions. And, while industrial real estate in the Richmond District was generally weak, renewed interest by retailers to revisit postponed expansion plans was also noted. Finally, public nonresidential construction activity funded by federal stimulus projects was a source of strength in the Cleveland, Chicago, Minneapolis, and Dallas Districts, but gains were often offset by state and local government cutbacks.
Banking and Financial Services 은행, 금융 서비스
Many Districts continued to report weak or declining loan demand, and many noted further erosion of credit quality. For example, demand was reported as stable or declining by New York, St. Louis, and Kansas City. Cleveland noted that commercial and industrial lending was soft and consumer lending was flat or reduced. In the Richmond District, modest signs of improvement in consumer loans were cited from banks in areas typically supported by the health care and education industries. Philadelphia also reported a small gain in consumer lending. San Francisco said that loan demand was "largely stable or perhaps rose slightly." A major exception to the general pattern of weak or declining lending activity was in residential real estate. Most Districts cited the federal government's first-time homebuyer program as supporting residential lending activity. However, Dallas reported that residential mortgage demand was disappointing, and St. Louis mentioned a moderate decline in real estate lending.
Credit quality continued to be a problem, and rising delinquencies were often noted. For example, credit quality was described as stable or declining in the Philadelphia, Cleveland, and Kansas City Districts. Half of the contacts for Kansas City expected loan quality to continue to erode over the next six months. Cleveland stated that the quality of loan applicants had deteriorated somewhat, mostly on the business side. Delinquencies were also widely reported to be up; New York particularly noted rising delinquency rates among both consumer and commercial mortgage loans.
Employment, Wages, and Prices 고용, 임금, 물가
Labor market conditions were generally reported as weak or mixed across Districts, but a few encouraging signs were noted. Employment activity was soft in the Kansas City District, and hiring remained limited in the Boston District. While a slowdown in layoffs was reported by Atlanta, no hiring was generally expected. Reports from Cleveland were mixed, but indicated declining employment in commercial construction and coal mining. Employment levels held steady in the Dallas District, with scattered reports of layoffs. However, staffing firms there noted improvement in contract and temporary employment. Minneapolis reported a weak labor market, but some signs of improvement were noted among auto-related industries. A major New York employment agency specializing in office workers reported renewed softening in recent weeks, with only scattered hiring at financial institutions and virtually no hiring in the legal and publishing industries. Richmond noted reports from temporary employment agencies were evenly mixed between reports of strengthening and weakening, but with increased optimism for the near term expressed since the last report.
Wage and price pressures were generally described as subdued across most Districts. Wages were flat in the San Francisco District, but increased moderately in the Minneapolis District. In the Boston District, business services firms (mainly advertising and consulting) reported modest salary increases, but a decline in bonuses left total compensation slightly reduced. Wage pressures were characterized as "not significant" in the Chicago District and "contained" in the Cleveland District.
Prices followed a similar pattern to wages, with reports of little significant pressure on either input or output prices, although moderate increases were observed for materials prices. For example, prices movements were characterized as generally subdued or little changed in the Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Minneapolis Districts. Cleveland noted stable construction materials prices, but added that the cost of steel had experienced an uptick. Materials prices in general were reported to be up in the Kansas City District. Boston said that selling prices of manufacturing goods were flat to slightly up, but noted that product competition and consumer clout was leading to downward pressures in some market segments. Retail price inflation slowed slightly in the Richmond District, while retail prices were stable in the Philadelphia District and edged down in the Chicago, Kansas City, and San Francisco Districts.
Agriculture and Natural Resources 농업, 천연자원
Assessments of agricultural activity were mixed. Reports from Richmond and Minneapolis indicated that favorable growing conditions allowed farmers to make steady progress in harvesting summer crops and planting winter crops. In some parts of the Minneapolis District, however, a persistent drought delayed harvesting. In contrast, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, and Dallas Districts all noted unusually high amounts of rainfall. In the Atlanta District, floods damaged some of North Georgia's nurseries, vegetable farms, and commercial vineyards, but benefited Florida citrus growers. Similarly, widespread rains brought much-needed relief to drought-stricken parts of the Dallas District, allowing many ranchers to scale back costly supplemental feeding--but not in time to prevent severe losses to livestock and crops. Chicago and St. Louis mentioned that wet weather had slowed crop maturity and harvesting, while Chicago reported lower than expected yields. Kansas City indicated that, despite some delayed harvests, farmers expected above-average yields.
Activity in the energy industry remained weak. Atlanta, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco reported increases in oil and gas inventories as demand continued to weaken. Atlanta indicated that refining margins continued to deteriorate, which led to delays in new projects. Cleveland noted that sharply lower contract prices for coal prompted coal miners to continue their deep cutbacks in production and to keep their capital spending on hold. Kansas City mentioned that overall drilling activity improved slightly, but that rig counts were still at historically low levels. Dallas remarked that rig counts rose in September and early October, spurred by oil drilling. However, Dallas also indicated that, despite the increase, excess capacity in the industry had resulted in job losses and weak domestic pricing. Minneapolis reported that activity in the energy and mining sectors increased slightly and noted that oil and gas exploration inched up in late September.
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[관련글]
2009-09-09 미국 베이지북 2009년 9월호
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