미국 GDP, 경제성장률, -3.8% _내용부정적 _경기회복 지연 전망

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다음은 BEA, Bureau of Economic Analysis 가 발표한 미국 실질GDP 2008년 연간 및 2008년 4분기 추세입니다.
전반적으로 향후 전망에 대해 부정적인 흐름을 시사한다고 볼 수 있습니다. 이유는,

1) 민간재고(기업재고)량이 2008년 3분기부터 3분기 0.84%, 4분기 1.32%씩 늘어나고 있는데, 재고증가는 경기침체가 결국 경기에 지속적인 악영향을 주기 시작했다는 증거,
(change in private inventories 항목)
2) NBER이 2007년 4분기부터 경기침체를 선언했는데, 2008년 1분기와 2분기에 일시적으로 양의 성장률을 보인 이후에, 2008년 3분기부터 GDP성장률이 다시 침체로 돌아서서, 이러한 본(本) 추세가 당분간 계속될 것으로 보인다는 점,

3) 분기별 경기침체에도 불구하고, 2008년 연간 1.3%의 양의 성장률을 기록하여, 경기침체가 연간성장률에 분명하게 각인된다면, 2009년은 연간으로 마이너스 성장률이 유력하다는 점,

4) 재고증가는 소비침체로 인해 판매가 일어나지 않는다는 것으로 기업에게 계속 재고/관리 부담을 주게 되고, 새로운 생산과 투자를 꺼리게 만들어, 설비 및 투자, 고용도 줄이도록 하는 요인이 되고, 이로 인해 민간의 구매력 복구도 지연, 약화되므로 다시 소비침체를 일으키는 악순환이 반복된다.

5) 실지로 미국 4분기 GDP수치를 보면, 소비지출은 -3.5% 감소, 기업투자 -20.1% 감소, 수출 -19.7% 감소를 보였다. 오직 정부지출만 1.9% 증가하여 GDP악화 개선에 기여했으며,
민간/기업재고증가 1.32% 수치를 빼면 4분기 GDP는 -5.1% 추락한 것으로 볼 수 있어,  긍정적인 내용은 아니다. (이데일리 관련기사) 

REAL GDP DECLINES 3.8 PERCENT IN FOURTH QUARTER, “Advance” Estimate of GDP, FRIDAY, January 30, 2009 
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Real gross domestic product (GDP) declined 3.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008 after declining 0.5 percent in the third quarter, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The fourth-quarter decline in real GDP reflected the following:
• A sharp downturn in exports, the first decline since the second quarter of 2003
• A decline in consumer spending, similar to the third-quarter decline
• A much larger decline in business investment in structures, equipment and software
• A continuing decline in housing

Offsetting these components:
• A larger decline in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP
• An increase in inventory investment

Consumer prices
Consumer prices fell 5.5 percent in the fourth quarter, after rising 5.0 percent in the third quarter. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 0.6 percent after rising 2.4 percent.

2008 growth
Real economic growth was 1.3 percent in 2008, compared with 2.0 percent in 2007, reflecting the following:
• A sharp deceleration in consumer spending
• A downturn in business equipment and software investment

출처 : http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2009/gdp408a.htm

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: FOURTH QUARTER 2008 (ADVANCE)

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- decreased at an annual rate of 3.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to advance estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP decreased 0.5 percent.
The Bureau emphasized that the fourth-quarter “advance” estimates are based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 4). The fourth-quarter “preliminary” estimates, based on more comprehensive data, will be released on February 27, 2009.
The decrease in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected negative contributions fromexports, personal consumption expenditures, equipment and software, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by positive contributions from private inventory investment and federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.
Most of the major components contributed to the much larger decrease in real GDP in the fourth quarter than in the third. The largest contributors were a downturn in exports and a much larger decrease in equipment and software. The most notable offset was a much larger decrease in imports.
Final sales of computers subtracted less than 0.01 percentage point from the change in real GDP after subtracting 0.01 percentage point from the third-quarter change. Motor vehicle output subtracted
2.04 percentage points from the fourth-quarter change in real GDP after contributing 0.16 percentage point to the third-quarter change.
The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, decreased 4.6 percent in the fourth quarter, in contrast to an increase of 4.5 percent in the third. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.2 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 2.8 percent in the third.
Real personal consumption expenditures decreased 3.5 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with a decrease of 3.8 percent in the third. Durable goods decreased 22.4 percent, compared with a decrease of 14.8 percent. Nondurable goods decreased 7.1 percent, the same as in the third. Services expenditures increased 1.7 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 0.1 percent.
Real nonresidential fixed investment decreased 19.1 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with a decrease of 1.7 percent in the third. Nonresidential structures decreased 1.8 percent, in contrast to an increase of 9.7 percent. Equipment and software decreased 27.8 percent, compared with a decrease of
7.5 percent. Real residential fixed investment decreased 23.6 percent, compared with a decrease of 16.0 percent.
Real exports of goods and services decreased 19.7 percent in the fourth quarter, in contrast to an increase of 3.0 percent in the third. Real imports of goods and services decreased 15.7 percent,compared with a decrease of 3.5 percent.
Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 5.8 percent inthe fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 13.8 percent in the third. National defense increased
2.1 percent, compared with an increase of 18.0 percent. Nondefense increased 14.5 percent, compared with an increase of 5.1 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 0.5 percent, in contrast to an increase of 1.3 percent.
The real change in private inventories added 1.32 percentage points to the fourth-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.84 percentage point to the third-quarter change. Private businesses increased inventories $6.2 billion in the fourth quarter, following a decrease of $29.6 billion in the third quarter and a decrease of $50.6 billion in the second.
Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- decreased 5.1 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with a decrease of 1.3 percent in the third.

출처 : http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2009/pdf/gdp408a.pdf