미국 4월 비농업고용인수 둔화폭 완화 _09.05.06 _ADP Nonfarm employment change

미국 4월 비농업고용인수(ADP Non-farm employment change) 하락폭이 완화되고 있는 것으로 나타났습니다.
2009년 5월 6일(현지) 미국 ADP가 발표한 4월 비농업고용인수 동향에 따르면, 동지표는 4월 -49만1천명이 감소하여 여전히 감소 중이지만 둔화폭은 일단 완화되고 있습니다. 이 밖에 이틀 전 건설지출(construction spending)도 0.3% 횡보세를 보였습니다.
이에 따라 다우존스지수도 소폭 반등했습니다.

비농업고용인수 차트 동향을 보면, 2007년 연말부터 하락하던 하락률 흐름이 다소 완화되기 시작했음을 볼 수 있습니다.
4월 다소 완화된 흐름에서 큰 폭으로 다시 하락하지 않는다면 쌍바닥형이나 혹은 완만한 둔화세 회복 가능성도 지표로 볼 때는 열려 있다고 보입니다.

전 산업 민간 비농업고용인수 성장률

재화생산산업 비농업고용인수 성장률

서비스 산업 비농업고용인수 성장률

임금규모에 따른 민간 비농업고용인수 성장률

건설, 금융 부분 고용인수 월간 변화율

다음은 ADP 발표자료 브리핑입니다. 자세한 자료는 첨부파일을 참조하시기 바랍니다.

Wednesday, May 6, 2009, 8:15 A.M. ET
Nonfarm private employment decreased 491,000 from March to April 2009 on a seasonally
adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report®. The estimated change of
employment from February to March was revised by 34,000, from a decline of 742,000 to a
decline of 708,000.
April’s ADP Report estimates nonfarm private employment in the service-providing sector fell
by 229,000. Employment in the goods-producing sector declined 262,000, with employment in
the manufacturing sector dropping 159,000, its thirty-eighth consecutive monthly decline.
Large businesses, defined as those with 500 or more workers, saw employment decline by
77,000, while medium-size businesses with between 50 and 499 workers declined 231,000.
Employment among small-size businesses, defined as those with fewer than 50 workers, declined
183,000. The employment declines among medium- and small-size businesses indicate that the
recession continues to spread beyond manufacturing and housing-related activities to almost
every area of the economy.
In April, construction employment dropped 95,000. This was its twenty-seventh consecutive
monthly decline, and brings the total decline in construction jobs since the peak in January 2007
to 1,261,000. April’s decline, however, was the smallest since November of 2008.

FINAL_Report_April_09.pdf

About the ADP National Employment Report®

The ADP National Employment Report, sponsored by ADP®, was developed and is maintained
by Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC. It is a measure of employment derived from an anonymous
subset of roughly 500,000 U.S. business clients. During the last six months of 2008, this subset
represented approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients representing nearly 24 million U.S.
employees working in all private industrial sectors. The data is collected for pay periods that can
be interpolated to include the week of the 12th of each month, and processed with statistical
methodologies similar to those used by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to compute
employment from its monthly survey of establishments. Due to this processing, this subset is
modified to make it indicative of national employment levels; therefore, the resulting
employment changes computed for the ADP National Employment Report are not representative
of changes in ADP’s total base of U.S. business clients.

출처 : ADP