미국 주택경기는 회복하고 있을까요?

미국 통계국(Census Bureau)은 매월 주택착공(Housing Starts), 건축 허가(Bulding Permits) 건수를 발표하는데, 이 지표를 통해서 미국 부동산경기가 어느 수준에 있는지 짐작해 볼 수 있습니다.
매월 발표되는 이 지표들은 전달에 신규 건축이 어느 정도로 진행되었는지를 나타냅니다.

미국 통계국은 9월 17일(현지) 미국 주택착공, 건축허가 건수를 발표했습니다.
다음달 Housing Starts, Bulding Permits 지표는 10월 20일(현지) 발표됩니다.

주택착공 건수 지표를 보면, 2000년부터 안정적인 상승세를 그리다가, 2006년 2월에 월간 222만건으로 피크(peak)를 친 것을 알 수 있습니다.
이후 약 1년간 하강 곡선을 그리다가 2007년 연초 일시적으로 미약한 반등을 보인 후에, 2007년 중반부터 하락파 본격적으로 드러내며 2009년초까지 크게 하락한 것을 볼 수 있습니다.
월간 주택착공 건수 최저점은 2009년 5월 49만건이었습니다.

주택착공(Housing Starts) 지표의 추세를 보면,
2006년초~2009년초까지 약 3년간 하락 3파가 완성된 것을 볼 수 있습니다.
2009년초부터 9월에 들어서는 현재까지 바닥권에서 미약한 더블유(W)자형을 그리며 저점을 형성했습니다.

이후 큰 모멘텀은 아직 가시화되고 있지는 않기 때문에, 크게 반등하지는 못하고 있으나, 저점권을 확인하고, 이미 반등 추세로 돌아섰다고 보는 것이 적절합니다.

이런 지표의 추세는 월간 건축허가 건수(U.S Building Permits)에서도 그대로 드러나고 있습니다.


이런 흐름에 경기와 산업생산 개선 가속도가 강화된다면, 주택건설 회복 추세도 더 강화될 수 있습니다.

최근에 살펴본 바 있듯이,
미국 산업경기 대표 지표인 엠파이어 스테이트 제조업 지수(Empire State Manufacturing Index),
대표적 소비 지표인 소매판매(Retail Sales), 기업 경기 상황을 나타내는 기업재고(Business Inventories) 지표가 의미있게 추세가 바뀌는 개선세를 이미 보이고 있다고 말씀드린 바 있습니다.

또, 주택착공 지표 전일에 발표되었던 산업생산(Industrial Production) 지표도 2개월 연속 뚜렷하게 개선되고 있습니다.


따라서, 미국 경기는 회복세에 이미 들어섰고, 주택경기도 회복 사이클 초기 국면에 이미 진입했다고 보는 것이 적절하다고 생각합니다.


[관련글]
미국 경기침체 종결, 회복국면 들어선다 _09.09.15

미국 경기침체가 사실상 종결된 것으로 판단됩니다. 하반기부터 점진적인 회복 국면이 더욱 뚜렷해 질 것으로 전망해 봅니다.
9월 15일(현지) 발표된 주요 미국 경기지표를 살펴보면, 이를 뚜렷이 알 수 있습니다. 
따라서, 조만간 전미경제조사국(NBER, National Bureau of Economic Research)도 2007년 12월 이후 계속되고 있는 경기침체 국면의 공식적인 종결을 선언할 것으로 전망됩니다. 

현지 발표된 주요 경기지표로는 Empire State Manufacturing Index 엠파이어 스테이트 제조업 지수, Retail Sales 소매 판매, Business Inventories 기업재고 3항목입니다. 

엠파이어 스테이트 제조업지수는 제조업과 산업생산의 경기동향을 살펴볼 수 있는 선행지표이고, (생산)
소매판매는 소비 동향을 살펴볼 수 있는 지표입니다. (소비)
기업재고는 기업이 생산량을 늘리거나 잘 조절하여 시장 수요에 대응하고 있는지를 나타냅니다. (생산-소비 연동성)


먼저, 엠파이어 스테이트 제조업 지수를 보면,
7월부터 지수(index)가 양전환(+)한 이후로, 상승세가 더욱 뚜렷해지는 모습입니다. 제조업 실물경기가 회복국면으로 접어들고 있다는 것을 반증합니다.


다음으로, 소매판매 지표를 보면, 연초부터 플러스, 마이너스 혼조국면을 보였으나, 9월 지표에서는 확연하게 개선세가 나타난 모습입니다. 개별 경제주체들의 소비 동향도 개선되고 있는 것입니다.


기업재고를 보면, 여전히 침체상태이나 전월대비 감소폭이 둔화되고 있습니다.
기업재고 항목은 여러 면으로 해석될 수 있습니다. 
기업재고가 감소하고 있다는 것은 물류창고로 유입되어 재고로 쌓이는 물량보다 창고에서 나가는 물량이 더 많다는 것입니다. 

여러가지 경우의 수가 있을 수 있습니다. 
1) 기업이 생산량을 줄였는데, 기존에 이미 생산해 놓은 물량으로 상품을 밀어내고 있으면 기업재고가 줄어들게 됩니다. 
2) 기업이 생산량을 줄이고 있으면, 기업재고가 줄어들게 됩니다. 

이 두 경우는 경기가 침체하여, 생산이 많이 일어나지 않고, 수요가 있으면 기존 물량으로 떼우는 경우입니다. 

3) 기업이 생산량도 늘리는데, 수요가 많아서 재고를 쌓을 여유가 없으면, 기업재고가 줄어들게 됩니다. 

이 경우는 경기가 호전되고 있는 것입니다. 소비요구량이 많아서 재고가 안쌓이고 있다고 볼 수 있기 때문입니다. 


경기호전의 신호로 재고량이 줄어들게 되는 징후가 나타나면 기업은 어떻게 반응할까요?

향후 매출을 늘리고 수요에 대응하기 위해 생산량을 늘리게 됩니다. 따라서, 기업재고 지표의 침체 이후에 양전환 국면으로 전환되는 것은 유력한 경기호전이 이미 진행되고 있는 신호로 받아들일 수 있습니다. 

위의 Business Inventories 지표를 보면, 1~2분기 이후에 뚜렷한 양전환의 가능성이 보이고 있습니다. Empire State Manufacturing Index, Retail Sales 지표, 즉 생산과 소비의 대표 지표가 모두 뚜렷하게 양전환(+) 했기 때문에, 미국 경기는 향후 기업재고의 양전환을 동반하여 일상적 수준으로 복귀, 회복 국면에 이미 들어섰다고 볼 수 있습니다. 


한편, 다우존스지수(다우지수, DJIA)의 흐름을 보면, 9,000p 선을 이미 돌파해서 아랫꼬리를 길게달고 연봉( year bar)은 양봉을 보이고 있습니다. 2009년 하반기에 양봉추세로 전환되었기 때문에, 하반기에도 양봉을 강화하며, 10,500p 선까지는 무난할 것으로 생각됩니다.

다우존스지수 일봉을 보면, 2009년 2월~3월초에 걸쳐 7,700p가 재차 무너지면서, 필자의 경우에도 심리적으로 많이 흔들렸으나, 결국 개미핥기 패턴으로 나타나 V자로 강하게 상승하며 3월말부터 회복 기조로 들어선 모습입니다. 그 속도가 매우 더디기는 하나, 미국 경기회복의 본격적 반영이 미국 본토 시장에서는 일어나지 않았기 때문에, 미국 시장은 여전히 최유력 투자 유망 시장이 됩니다. 

2008년 11월, 12월, 2009년 연초에 걸쳐서, 만일 원-달러 환율만 안정된다면, 가장 유망한 최유력 시장은 미국시장이라고 말씀드린 바 있습니다. 

미국시장에 비해 국내시장, 코스피는 1,700p에 육박할만큼 회복기조를 보이며 이미 많이 올라있어서 지수 자체로는 최상의 구조를 보이고 있습니다. 특히 대형주에서는 신고가 종목들도 쏟아지고 있습니다. 

현재 원달러 환율이 1,200원대에서 1,100원대로 진입도 전망되는데, 이 환율에서 미국시장 투자 진출은 가능하다고 생각됩니다. 왜냐하면 미국시장의 상승여력이 크기 때문입니다. 

안정화된 원-달러 환율

따라서, 미국 현지인들과 미국동포 여러분들께서는, 미국 본토에서 현지 기업들에 대한 투자에 관심을 기울여야할 시점입니다. 물론 내국인들도 해외 투자할 수 있습니다. 

2008년 11월, 12월, 2009년 연초에 걸쳐서 미국 현지에 계신분들께, 미국에서는 당시부터 골드만삭스(Goldman Sachs, GS), 구글(Google, Goog), 리오틴토(Rio Tinto) 등에 적극적으로 투자해야 하며, GM에 곁눈질 하기보다는 국내기업 현대차에 적극적으로 투자하라고 말씀드렸습니다. (생존 대표 금융투자 회사의 주가 저평가 모멘텀, IT경기 선회복에 따른 선도기업 투자, 경기회복시 광물주의 주가 모멘텀, 미국 자동차업종의 쇄퇴이후 새로운 마켓플레이어의 대체 등장)

아래는 그 이후로, 해당 기업들의 주가움직입니다. 엄청나게 올랐다는 것을 알 수 있으며, 정확하게 저점 수준에서 말씀드린 것을 알 수 있습니다.



2008년 연말, 2009년 연초는 침체 국면의 최극단이었기 때문에, 적극적 발담그기를 권장했지만, 투자의 대상은 선별적이었습니다. 
그러나 경기회복이 가시화되면, 주식시장에서도 투자의 대상과 외연이 확장되게 되고 선택의 폭이 넓어집니다.

또한 기존에 많이 오른 업종 종목군이 있다면 포트폴리오 교체의 필요성도 높아지게 됩니다.
이 점에 대해서는 새 글로 언급하고자 합니다. 즉 보다 여유롭게 투자할 수 있는 가능성이 커지고 있습니다.
특히, 미국 현지인들께서는 현지 시장에 대한 투자 스탠스를 강화해야 할 것입니다.


[관련글]
미국 베이지북 Beige Book 9월호 _FRB 미국 경제상황 보고
미국 경제성장률, GDP 변화율 추이 _1995년~2009년 2분기

 
다음주 미국 경제지표 주간발표 일정입니다.
다음주에는 소매판매(retail sales), 기업재고(business inventories), 생산자물가(PPI), 소비자물가(CPI),
엠파이어스테이트 제조업지수(Empire State Manufacturing Index), 산업생산성(Industrial Production) 등의 지표 발표가 있습니다. 전주에 발표된 은행 스트레스 테스트(bank stress test) 결과에 대해서는 폴크루그먼(Paul Krugman)을 중심으로 여전히 논란이 있는 것으로 보입니다.

May 10 - May 16
Date		Actual	Forecast	Previous
Mon	Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
11-May
12-May	Trade Balance		-29.2B	-26.0B
	IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism		49.7	49.1
	Federal Budget Balance		-60.5B	-192.3B
Wed	Core Retail Sales m/m		0.00%	-1.00%
13-May
	Retail Sales m/m		0.00%	-1.20%
	Import Prices m/m		0.40%	0.50%
	Business Inventories m/m		-1.10%	-1.30%
	Crude Oil Inventories			0.6M
Thu	PPI m/m		0.10%	-1.20%
14-May	Unemployment Claims		610K	601K
	Core PPI m/m		0.10%	0.00%
	Natural Gas Storage			95B
Fri	Core CPI m/m		0.10%	0.20%
15-May	CPI m/m		0.00%	-0.10%
	Empire State Manufacturing Index		-13.9	-14.7
	TIC Long-Term Purchases		27.3B	22.0B
	Capacity Utilization Rate		68.90%	69.30%
	Industrial Production m/m		-0.50%	-1.50%
	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment		65.8	65.1
	Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations			2.80%

(출처 : forexfactory.com 정리)

다우존스지수의 그 동안의 경과를 보면, 2월말 3월초 6,469p대까지 연초 9,000p로부터 하락한 이후 
단일파로 8,574p대까지 전진해 있습니다. 연봉으로 보면 여전히 음봉이고, 전저점으로 본다면 2,000p 정도 상승해 있습니다.
기술적 이격도는 다소 과하기 때문에, 조정폭과 상관없이 잠깐 쉬어갈 수도 있어 보이는데, 흐름은 지켜봐야 겠습니다.
경기지표는 여전히 침체상황인 가운데, 그 가속도만은 일단 둔화되어 나타나고 있습니다.
 

 
미국 소매판매, Retail Sales 지표가 월간 -1.1% 다시 감소하였고, 결국 근래 2개월간 소폭 개선되는 듯 했으나,
침체 흐름의 일시적 기술적 둔화에 불과하고, 다시 침체가 지속되는 흐름을 보여주고 있습니다.
장기 침체가 연장되는 흐름으로 경계와 충분한 시간 경과가 필요하다고 생각됩니다.  

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

TUESDAY, APRIL 14, AT 8:30 A.M. EDT

Timothy Winters / Aneta Erdie                                                                                                                                                                                            CB09-51
Service Sector Statistics Division
(301) 763-2713

ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL TRADE AND FOOD SERVICES

MARCH 2009

Intention to Revise Retail Estimates: Monthly retail sales estimates will be revised based on the results of the 2007 Annual Retail Trade Survey. Revised not adjusted and corresponding adjusted data are scheduled for release on April 30, 2009.

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $344.4 billion, a decrease of 1.1 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month and 9.4 percent (±0.7%) below March 2008. Total sales for the January through March 2009 period were down 8.8 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The January 2009 to February 2009 percent change was revised from -0.1 percent (±0.5%)* to +0.3 percent (±0.3%)*.

Retail trade sales were down 1.1 percent (±0.7%) from February 2009 and 10.7 percent (±0.7%) below last year. Gasoline stations sales were down 34.0 percent (±1.5%) from March 2008 and motor vehicle and parts dealers sales were down 23.5 percent (±2.3%) from last year.

The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau's full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.

Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales
(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)

The Advance Monthly Retail Sales for Retail and Food Services for April is scheduled to be released May 13, 2009 at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

For information, visit the Census Bureau's Web site at <http://www.census.gov/retail>. This report is also available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's STAT-USA (202-482-1986).

* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different than zero.

---

TABLE 1A.  ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--March 2009
Estimates adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes.
(Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(2)

                 (In Millions of dollars)


                                                                     2009     2009     2009     2008     2008
   NAICS(1)                    Kind of Business                      Mar(3)   Feb      Jan      Mar      Feb
   Code                                                              (a)      (p)      (r)      (r)      (r)

                Retail & food services, total....................   344,380  348,359  347,311  380,171  378,191

                 Total (excl. motor vehicle &  parts)............   288,203  290,844  288,038  306,746  304,410

                   Retail .......................................   305,830  309,246  308,613  342,444  340,684

                GAFO(4)..........................................       (*)   96,663   95,550   98,272   97,271

   441          Motor vehicle & parts dealers....................    56,177   57,515   59,273   73,425   73,781
   4411,4412     Auto & other motor veh. dealers.................    49,659   50,926   52,720   67,011   67,405

   442          Furniture & home furnishings stores..............     8,231    8,370    8,326    9,467    9,445

   443          Electronics & appliance stores....................    8,535    9,066    9,007    9,427    9,199
   44311,13      Appl., T.V. &  camera...........................       (*)    7,279    7,254    7,609    7,375
   44312         Computer & software stores......................       (*)    1,787    1,753    1,818    1,824

   444          Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers    24,488   24,645   24,762   26,971   27,538
   4441          Building mat. & supplies dealers................       (*)   20,585   20,590   22,998   23,608

   445          Food & beverage stores...........................    49,469   49,239   49,308   48,671   48,367
   4451          Grocery stores..................................    44,123   43,931   44,063   43,649   43,400
   4453          Beer, wine & liquor stores......................       (*)    3,578    3,591    3,452    3,421

   446          Health & personal care stores....................    21,124   21,037   20,910   20,233   20,260
   44611         Pharmacies & drug stores........................       (*)   17,320   17,198   16,765   16,762

   447          Gasoline stations................................    27,896   28,339   27,474   42,253   41,523

   448          Clothing & clothing accessories stores...........    17,939   18,266   17,775   18,901   18,655
   44811         Men's clothing stores...........................       (*)      (S)      (S)      (S)      (S)
   44812         Women's clothing stores.........................       (*)    3,044    2,982    3,349    3,359
   4482          Shoe stores.....................................       (*)    2,215    2,087    2,201    2,221

   451          Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores.......     7,287    7,355    7,350    7,396    7,311

   452          General merchandise stores.......................    50,146   50,229   49,643   49,509   49,204
   4521          Department stores (ex. L.D.)....................    16,057   16,106   15,965   16,990   17,103
   4521          Department stores (incl. L.D.)(5)...............       (*)     (NA)     (NA)     (NA)     (NA)
   4529          Other general merchandise stores................       (*)   34,123   33,678   32,519   32,101
   45291          Warehouse clubs & supercenters.................       (*)   30,253   29,954   28,875   28,385
   45299          All other gen. merchandise stores..............       (*)    3,870    3,724    3,644    3,716

   453          Miscellaneous store retailers....................     9,519    9,736    9,214    9,867    9,715

   454          Nonstore retailers...............................    25,019   25,449   25,571   26,324   25,686
   4541          Electronic shopping & mail-order houses.........       (*)   18,264   18,301   17,912   17,504

   722          Food services & drinking places..................    38,550   39,113   38,698   37,727   37,507


                (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business.

                (NA) Not available (S) Suppressed (a) Advance estimate  (p) Preliminary estimate  (r) Revised estimate

(1)   For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html

(2)   Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment
      uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12 ARIMA program.  The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally
      adjusted estimates shown in this table.  Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated.  Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found
      on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html

(3)   Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample.
      All other estimates are from the MRTS sample.

(4)   GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443),
      clothing & clothing accessories (448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise (452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores (4532).

(5)   Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores.  Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.





TABLE 1B.  ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--March 2009
Estimates not adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences and price changes.
                 (In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change)

                                                                       3 month total
                                                                                 % Chg.   2009     2009     2009     2008     2008
   NAICS(1)                    Kind of Business                        2009       from    Mar(2)   Feb      Jan      Mar      Feb
   Code                                                                           2008    (a)      (p)      (r)

                Retail & food services, total....................     966,116    -10.1   338,716  308,599  318,801  378,755  348,876

                 Total (excl. motor vehicle &  parts)............     800,901     -6.8   278,617  255,952  266,332  300,572  278,636

                   Retail .......................................     854,825    -11.5   299,742  273,006  282,077  340,236  313,244

                GAFO(3)..........................................         (*)       (*)      (*)   83,579   84,003   93,727   87,385

   441          Motor vehicle & parts dealers....................     165,215    -23.2    60,099   52,647   52,469   78,183   70,240
   4411,4412     Auto & other motor veh. dealers.................     146,785    -25.5    53,483   46,750   46,552   71,769   64,304
   44111          New car dealers................................         (*)       (*)      (*)   35,603   36,334   56,849   51,188
   4413          Auto parts, acc. & tire stores..................         (*)       (*)      (*)    5,897    5,917    6,414    5,936

   442          Furniture & home furnishings stores..............      23,094    -13.9     7,951    7,466    7,677    9,136    8,822
   4421          Furniture stores................................         (*)       (*)      (*)    4,434    4,370    5,100    5,063
   4422          Home furnishings stores.........................         (*)       (*)      (*)    3,032    3,307    4,036    3,759

   443          Electronics & appliance stores....................     24,895     -5.5     7,796    8,492    8,607    8,659    8,857
   44311,13      Appl., T.V. &  camera...........................         (*)       (*)      (*)    6,857    6,964    6,886    7,146
   44312         Computer & software stores......................         (*)       (*)      (*)    1,635    1,643    1,773    1,711

   444          Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers      61,313    -11.6    23,741   18,528   19,044   25,703   21,783
   4441          Building mat. & supplies dealers................         (*)       (*)      (*)   16,015   16,616   21,802   19,264

   445          Food & beverage stores...........................     140,814     -0.1    47,673   44,392   48,749   48,557   45,351
   4451          Grocery stores..................................     127,060     -0.5    42,888   39,933   44,239   43,824   40,970
   4453          Beer, wine & liquor stores......................         (*)       (*)      (*)    2,959    3,106    3,176    2,976

   446          Health & personal care stores....................      62,399      2.2    21,504   19,985   20,910   20,779   20,078
   44611         Pharmacies & drug stores........................         (*)       (*)      (*)   16,558   17,370   17,184   16,712

   447          Gasoline stations................................      76,454    -34.1    27,115   24,145   25,194   41,281   36,789

   448          Clothing & clothing accessories stores...........      45,569     -6.4    16,541   15,171   13,857   18,119   16,128
   44811         Men's clothing stores...........................         (*)       (*)      (*)      623      652      816      722
   44812         Women's clothing stores.........................         (*)       (*)      (*)    2,417    2,299    3,406    2,785
   44814         Family clothing stores..........................         (*)       (*)      (*)    5,713    5,461    6,751    5,680
   4482          Shoe stores.....................................         (*)       (*)      (*)    1,918    1,663    2,285    1,999

   451          Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores.......      19,367     -1.8     6,449    5,752    7,166    6,649    6,024

   452          General merchandise stores.......................     133,847     -0.3    46,841   43,611   43,395   47,929   44,205
   4521          Department stores (ex. L.D.)....................      40,277     -8.1    14,407   13,169   12,701   15,938   14,490
   4521          Department stores (incl. L.D.)(4)...............         (*)       (*)      (*)   13,523   13,038   16,384   14,891
   4529          Other general merchandise stores................         (*)       (*)      (*)   30,442   30,694   31,991   29,715
   45291          Warehouse clubs & supercenters.................         (*)       (*)      (*)   27,137   27,618   28,442   26,426
   45299          All other gen. merchandise stores..............         (*)       (*)      (*)    3,305    3,076    3,549    3,289

   453          Miscellaneous store retailers....................      26,010     -5.4     8,972    8,620    8,418    9,224    9,025

   454          Nonstore retailers...............................      75,848     -4.7    25,060   24,197   26,591   26,017   25,942
   4541          Electronic shopping & mail-order houses.........         (*)       (*)      (*)   16,346   17,843   16,855   16,401

   722          Food services & drinking places..................     111,291      2.0    38,974   35,593   36,724   38,519   35,632


                (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business.

                (NA) Not available  (a) Advance estimate  (p) Preliminary estimate  (r) Revised estimate

(1)   For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html

(2)   Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample.
      All other estimates are from the MRTS sample.

(3)   GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443),
      clothing & clothing accessories (448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise (452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores (4532).

(4)   Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores.  Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.





TABLE 2A. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--March 2009
Estimates adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes
(Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey,
 Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(*)

                                                                        Mar             Feb
                                                                        2009            2009
                                                                        adv.            prel.
                                                                        from--          from--



   NAICS                       Kind of Business                      Feb     Mar     Jan     Feb
   Code                                                              2009    2008    2009    2008
                                                                     (p)     (r)     (r)     (r)

                Retail & food Services, total....................     -1.1    -9.4    +0.3    -7.9

                  Total (excl. motor vehicle &  parts )..........     -0.9    -6.0    +1.0    -4.5

                        Retail ..................................     -1.1   -10.7    +0.2    -9.2

   441          Motor vehicle & parts dealers....................     -2.3   -23.5    -3.0   -22.0
   4411,4412       Auto & other motor veh. dealers...............     -2.5   -25.9    -3.4   -24.4

   442          Furniture & home furnishings stores..............     -1.7   -13.1    +0.5   -11.4

   443          Electronics & appliance stores...................     -5.9    -9.5    +0.7    -1.4

   444          Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers     -0.6    -9.2    -0.5   -10.5

   445          Food & beverage stores...........................     +0.5    +1.6    -0.1    +1.8
   4451          Grocery stores..................................     +0.4    +1.1    -0.3    +1.2

   446          Health & personal care stores....................     +0.4    +4.4    +0.6    +3.8

   447          Gasoline stations................................     -1.6   -34.0    +3.1   -31.8

   448          Clothing & clothing accessories stores...........     -1.8    -5.1    +2.8    -2.1

   451          Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........    -0.9    -1.5    +0.1    +0.6

   452          General merchandise stores.......................     -0.2    +1.3    +1.2    +2.1
   4521          Department stores (ex. L.D.)....................     -0.3    -5.5    +0.9    -5.8

   453          Miscellaneous stores retailers...................     -2.2    -3.5    +5.7    +0.2

   454          Nonstore retailers...............................     -1.7    -5.0    -0.5    -0.9

   722          Food services & drinking places..................     -1.4    +2.2    +1.1    +4.3


  (p) Preliminary estimate  (r) Revised estimate

  (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1A of this report.





TABLE 2B. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--March 2009
Data not adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences and price changes.
(Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey,
 Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(*)

                                                                        Mar             Feb
                                                                        2009            2009
                                                                        adv.            prel.
                                                                        from--          from--



   NAICS                       Kind of Business                      Feb     Mar     Jan     Feb
   Code                                                              2009    2008    2009    2008
                                                                     (p)     (r)     (r)     (r)

                Retail & food Services, total....................     +9.8   -10.6    -3.2   -11.5

                  Total (excl. motor vehicle &  parts )..........     +8.9    -7.3    -3.9    -8.1

                        Retail ..................................     +9.8   -11.9    -3.2   -12.8

   441          Motor vehicle & parts dealers....................    +14.2   -23.1    +0.3   -25.0
   4411,4412       Auto & other motor veh. dealers................   +14.4   -25.5    +0.4   -27.3

   442          Furniture & home furnishings stores..............     +6.5   -13.0    -2.7   -15.4

   443          Electronics & appliance stores...................     -8.2   -10.0    -1.3    -4.1

   444          Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers    +28.1    -7.6    -2.7   -14.9

   445          Food & beverage stores...........................     +7.4    -1.8    -8.9    -2.1
   4451          Grocery stores..................................     +7.4    -2.1    -9.7    -2.5

   446          Health & personal care stores....................     +7.6    +3.5    -4.4    -0.5

   447          Gasoline stations................................    +12.3   -34.3    -4.2   -34.4

   448          Clothing & clothing accessories stores...........     +9.0    -8.7    +9.5    -5.9

   451          Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........   +12.1    -3.0   -19.7    -4.5

   452          General merchandise stores.......................     +7.4    -2.3    +0.5    -1.3
   4521          Department stores (ex. L.D.)....................     +9.4    -9.6    +3.7    -9.1

   453          Miscellaneous stores retailers...................     +4.1    -2.7    +2.4    -4.5

   454          Nonstore retailers...............................     +3.6    -3.7    -9.0    -6.7

   722          Food services & drinking places..................     +9.5    +1.2    -3.1    -0.1

  (p) Preliminary estimate  (r) Revised estimate

  (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from not adjusted estimates provided in Table 1B of this report.

SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--MARCH 2009 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Timothy Winters (301) 763-2713.

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Survey Description

The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey (MARTS) to provide an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the United States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 5,000 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). Firms responding to MARTS account for approximately 65% of the total national sales estimate. Advance sales estimates are computed using a link relative estimator. The change in sales from the previous month is estimated using only units that have reported data for both the current and previous month. There is no imputation or adjustment for nonrespondents in MARTS. The total sales estimate is derived by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous month (derived from the larger MRTS sample). Detailed industry estimates are summed to derive total estimates at broad industry levels. The monthly estimates are adjusted using annual survey estimates and for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences. Additional information on MARTS and MRTS can be found on the Census Bureau website at: http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html.

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Reliability of Estimates

Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and nonsampling error. Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients of variation (CV), as given in Table 3 of this report, are estimated measures of sampling variation. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is 90-percent confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9 percent or ±1.5 percent, and the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.3 percent to +2.7 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the change is different from zero and therefore the change is not statistically significant. Estimated changes shown in the text are statistically significant unless otherwise noted. For a monthly total, the median estimated coefficient of variation is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ±1.65 x CV x (the estimated monthly total). The Census Bureau recommends that individuals using estimates in this report incorporate this information into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions drawn from the estimates. Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response, coverage, or processing. Although nonsampling error is not measured directly, the Census Bureau employs quality control procedures throughout the process to minimize this type of error.

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(1) Estimated measures of sampling variability are based on estimates not adjusted for seasonal variation, or holiday, or trading-day differences. Medians are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months.

(2) These columns provide measures of the difference between the advance-to-preliminary and preliminary-to-final estimates of month-to-month change for the same pair of months as measured by the Advance sample and MRTS sample. The average and median differences are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months.

Note: Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html

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Current Quarter Retail E-Commerce Sales

Source: Retail Indicators Branch, U.S. Census Bureau | Last Revised: April 14, 2009

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Page Last Modified: April 14, 2009

출처 : http://www.census.gov/marts/www/marts_current.html

코스피에 대해 차익실현을 권장합니다.




미국 경지지표를 보면, 소매판매 Retail Sales 지표가 근래 2개월간 개선되는 듯 했으나,
결국 침체의 기술적인 일시적 둔화일 뿐, 3월 소매판매 지표는 다시 악화로 나타나고 있으며,
PPI는 하락하여 디플레이션 경향을 보이고 있고,

기업재고 Business Inventories는 개선 징후가 없습니다.

2009년 연초 1,100p 부근, 저점 1,000p 정도로 잡으면, 최근 코스피 지수는 최소 20~40% 선까지
2분기 초반에 먼저 올라섰기 때문에 일단 차익실현을 권장합니다.

조만간 새 글로 쓰고자 하나, 시장 심리나 시장 지표로도 현재 국면은 차익실현이 무난합니다.

Date		Actual	Forecast	Previous
Mon
13-Apr
Tue	Core Retail Sales m/m		0.10%	0.70%
14-Apr	PPI m/m		0.00%	0.10%
	Retail Sales m/m		0.30%	-0.10%
	Core PPI m/m		0.10%	0.20%
	Business Inventories m/m		-1.20%	-1.10%
	FOMC Member Evans Speaks
	Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
Wed	Core CPI m/m		0.10%	0.20%
15-Apr	CPI m/m		0.10%	0.40%
	Empire State Manufacturing Index		-35	-38.2
	TIC Long-Term Purchases		17.3B	-43.0B
	Capacity Utilization Rate		69.70%	70.20%
	Industrial Production m/m		-0.80%	-1.50%
	Crude Oil Inventories			1.7M
	NAHB Housing Market Index		10	9
	Beige Book
Thu	Building Permits		0.55M	0.56M
16-Apr
	Unemployment Claims		659K	654K
	Housing Starts		0.53M	0.58M
	Philly Fed Manufacturing Index		-31.8	-35
	Natural Gas Storage			20B
	FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks
	FOMC Member Yellen Speaks
Fri	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment		58.3	57.3
17-Apr
	Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations			2.00%
	Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

 
 
미국 도매재고, Wholesales Inventories 월간수치가(m/m) 2월 -1.5% 감소하였습니다.  미국 통계국(Census Bureau) 발표

Sales. The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that February 2009 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and
offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $319.7 billion, up 0.6 percent (+/-0.7%)*
from the revised January level and were down 14.3 percent (+/-1.6%) from the February 2008 level. The January preliminary estimate was revised
downward $0.7 billion or 0.2 percent. February sales of durable goods were up 2.0 percent (+/-1.4%) from last month, but were down 14.8 percent
(+/-2.1%) from a year ago. Compared to last month, sales of motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts and supplies were up 3.7 percent, while sales of
metals and minerals, except petroleum, were down 5.6 percent. Sales of nondurable goods were down 0.4 percent (+/-0.7%)* from last month and
were down 13.8 percent (+/-1.6%) from last year. Sales of chemicals and allied products were down 4.6 percent from last month.

Inventories. Total inventories of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations
but not for price changes, were $419.3 billion at the end of February, down 1.5 percent (+/-0.4%) from the revised January level, and were down 1.7
percent (+/-0.9%) from a year ago. The January preliminary estimate was revised upward $0.2 billion. End-of-month inventories of durable goods
were down 2.4 percent (+/-0.5%) from last month, but were up 0.7 percent (+/-1.1%)* from last February. Inventories of motor vehicle and motor
vehicle parts and supplies were down 7.9 percent from last month and inventories of furniture and home furnishings were down 3.0 percent. End-ofmonth
inventories of nondurable goods decreased 0.2 percent (+/-0.5%)* from January and were down 5.5 percent (+/-1.9%) compared to last
February. Inventories of farm product raw materials were down 5.4 percent from last month, and inventories of paper and paper products were down
4.8 percent.

Inventories/Sales Ratio. The February inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, based
on seasonally adjusted data, was 1.31. The February 2008 ratio was 1.14.
Data in this report are based on a sample and, therefore, are subject to sampling and nonsampling error. A discussion of the reliability of the estimates
and general survey methodology can be found at: <http://www.census.gov/wholesale/www/how_surveys_are_collected/011340.html>.

자료 : 첨부파일, 출처 : http://www.census.gov/wholesale/index.html

currentwhl_0904.pdf

미국 내구재주문, Durable Goods Orders가 마이너스전망이었던 당초 예상을 깨고, 월간(m/m)으로 3.4% 상승하였습니다.

경기 개선에 대한 기대감이 높아졌다고 볼 수 있습니다. 전일 주택경기 지표도 다소 호전되었고, 이전에 소매판매 지표도 연속 완화 흐름이었기 때문에, 어느 정도의 기대도 가능하다고 생각됩니다.

09/03/24일자 리치몬드 제조업 지수의 경우에도, 국지적이기는 하지만, 둔화세가 주춤해지는 모습이었습니다.

장중 조정세였던 다우지수의 경우에도 이에 고무되어 상승 마감한 모습입니다.

 

HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE ADVANCE REPORT ON MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS

February 2009--------------- Released 8:30 A.M. EDT March 25, 2009
(M3-1(09)-02)
Note: All figures in text are in seasonally adjusted current dollars
For Data - (301) 763-4673
For Questions - Chris Savage or Jessica Young
(301) 763-4832

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New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in February increased $5.5 billion or 3.4 percent to $165.6 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase follows six consecutive monthly decreases, including a 7.3 percent January decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 3.9 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.7 percent.

Shipments

Shipments of manufactured durable goods in February, down seven consecutive months, decreased $0.9 billion or 0.5 percent to $179.1 billion. This followed a 5.2 percent January decrease.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in February, down five consecutive months, decreased $10.5 billion or 1.3 percent to $773.7 billion. This followed a 2.0 percent January decrease.

Inventories

Inventories of manufactured durable goods in February, down two consecutive months, decreased $2.9 billion or 0.9 percent to $336.8 billion. This followed a 1.1 percent January decrease.

Capital Goods Industries

Nondefense

Nondefense new orders for capital goods in February increased $3.6 billion or 7.4 percent to $52.8 billion.

Defense

Defense new orders for capital goods in February increased $2.6 billion or 35.3 percent to $10.0 billion.

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Released March 25, 2009. This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers' shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus nondurable goods will be published April 2, 2009. The advance report on durable goods for March is scheduled for release April 24, 2009.

Our internet address is: http://www.census.gov/m3

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