엠파이어 스테이트 제조업 지수 _09.07.15, 양(+)전환 임박?

엠파이어 스테이트 지수, 예상치와 실제 수치 _09.07.15 (현지)

다우존스, 나스닥 지수 _09.07.15 (현지)

July 2009 Report

Survey Indicators
Seasonally Adjusted

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers were flat in July. The general business conditions index increased to a level close to zero, rising 9 points, to -0.6. The new orders index rose above zero for the first time in several months, and the shipments index also climbed into positive territory. The inventories index slipped to a record-low -36.5. The prices paid index rose above zero for the first time since November, while the prices received index held below zero. Employment indexes remained well below zero. Future indexes continued to be relatively optimistic about the six-month outlook, but were somewhat less buoyant than in June. The capital spending index fell several points, but remained above zero.

In a series of supplementary questions (see Supplemental Report tab), the median respondent indicated that total sales had fallen 15 percent from the first half of 2008 to the first half of 2009, and that the number of employees had decreased 10 percent. Declines for the full year were expected to be of the same respective magnitudes. The same questions were asked in July 2008; in that survey, sales had been seen as rising 5 percent, with employment levels being little changed. When asked if they had recently modified their production plans for the second half of 2009, close to 63 percent of respondents reported that they had scaled back plans, while just 21 percent indicated that they had increased them. This result reflects a much more negative assessment than what was reported in last July’s survey. In response to an additional set of questions new to this survey, manufacturers generally reported little effect thus far from the economic stimulus package.

General Business Conditions Index Rises, Holds around Zero
The general business conditions index rose several points in July, hovering around zero for the first time since last summer, at -0.6—suggesting that conditions neither worsened nor improved over the month. Twenty-three percent observed that conditions improved, less than the 28 percent reporting so in June, while 24 percent said that conditions worsened, well below the 38 percent who saw deteriorating conditions in June. The new orders index rose above zero for the first time since September 2008, climbing from -8.2 to 5.9. The shipments index rose similarly, from -4.8 to 11.0, its highest level in a year. The unfilled orders index held steady at -12.5. The delivery time index fell 4 points, to
-14.6, and the inventories index declined 11 points, to -36.5, a record low.

Input Prices Resume Increase
After several months of readings below zero, the prices paid index rose 16 points, to 10.4, the first positive value since November 2008, indicating that input prices are once again on the upswing. The prices received index remained negative, inching up 4points, to -8.3. Employment indexes remained negative and near June readings. The number of employees index was -20.8, and the average workweek index was -19.8.

Outlook Remains Favorable
The six-month outlook remained favorable in July, although future indexes were somewhat lower than last month. The future general business conditions index fell 14 points, but at 34.0 was well above the very low levels of earlier this year. The future new orders and shipments indexes also declined similarly. The future prices paid index rose 16 points, to 26.0, while the future prices received index held just below zero. Future employment indexes were positive. The capital expenditures index slipped 9 points, to 2.1, while the technology spending index held steady at 1.0.

7_2009.pdf

엠파이어 스테이트 제조업 지수 발표에 따른 다우존스 지수 영향, 2009년 6월15일, 7월15일 (현지)

다음주는 혼조장세, 눌림목 장세가 전망됩니다.

8,500p를 중심으로 한 단기운동밴드에서 아랫단의 영역이고, 중장기 추세가 점진적으로 회복되는 과정에서,
일시적인 기술적 눌림목 과정이라 생각되므로, 미국시장이나 한국시장이나 눌림목시 매수의 관점으로 대응하면 좋을 것으로 보입니다.

50, 60일 이평선에서 재차 탄성을 재축적하는 과정으로 볼 수 있겠습니다.

시장이 즉각에 급격히 상승할 시점도 아니므로, 연중 개선세에 대한 신뢰를 바탕으로, 중기적 관점에서 
보유비중을 적절하게 잘 관리하고, 시간적으로 여유롭게 대응하는 자세가 적절하다고 생각됩니다.

1.4~1.10 주요 경기발표 내용 _ 공장재주문, 비농업고용인수, 실업률 악화
저번주 주요 경기 지표를 보면, 공장재주문, 비농업고용인수, 실업률 등이 여전히 좋지 않은 모습이지만,

이런 추세가 당분간 이어질 것이라는 점을 시장의 컨센서스로 느끼고 있고, 이를 또한 시장의 시세가 반영하고 있는 것이므로, 
  
이미 금요일까지의 종가에 다 반영된 마당에, 냉담한 대응은 필요없어 보입니다.

세계경기나 미국경기나, 증시 지수나 즉각적으로 회복되는 것이 아니라, 
이미 충분히 하락해 있는 상태에서, 연간으로 점진적인 회복세를 전망하는 것이므로, 
천천히 차근차근 대응하고 시간적으로 여유를 두고 기다려 가는 자세가 좋다고 할 수 있습니다.

1.11~1.17 주요 경기발표 일정
다음주에는 주로 물가관련 지표들이 발표되는데, 안정화 추세에서 큰 변화는 없을 것으로 보입니다.

전반적으로 눌림목이거나, 혹은 밴드 저점대에서 다시 밴드 내에서의 회복세가 전망되므로,

저가매수의 관점, 제한적인 후발 매수의 관점으로 대응할 수 있는 한 주로 생각됩니다.