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'미국경기'에 해당되는 글 70건




  1. 2010.09.25 미국 경기 침체 종료 선언 _NBER(전미경제조사국) _10.09.20 1
  2. 2010.04.15 베이지북 Beige Book 2010년 4월호 _FRB, 미국 경제상황 보고 _10.04.14
  3. 2009.11.05 FOMC 11월 공개 의사록, 제로금리 계속 유지 _09.11.04
  4. 2009.11.04 경기선행지수, 경기동행지수, 경기후행지수 _통계청 3/4분기 산업활동동향 _09.10.30
  5. 2009.10.30 미국 3분기 GDP, 경제성장률 +3.5%, 양전환 _BEA, 09.10.29
  6. 2009.10.22 베이지북 Beige Book 10월호 _FRB 미국 경제상황 보고 _09.10.21
  7. 2009.09.24 FOMC 9월 공개 의사록, 미국경기 회복 선언 _09.09.23
  8. 2009.09.19 코스피 포트폴리오 4차, 제시 예정 _Kospi, 09.09.19

전미경제조사국(NBER, National Bureau of Economic Research)이 2010년 9월 20일(미국 현지) 드디어 미국 경기 침체(recession)의 종료를 선언했습니다.

전미경제조사국(NBER)의 발표 내용을 보면,

"2007년 12월부터 고점(peak)을 찍고 시작된 경기침체(recession) 국면이 2009년 6월부로 저점(trough)을 찍고 종료되었다. 이번 침체기간은 18개월 동안 지속되었으며, 세계 2차대전 전후 가장 긴 주기의 침체 기간으로 기록되었다. 전후 비교적 장기의 침체기간은 1973-75년, 1981-82년 사이에 있었는데, 16개월 동안 지속되었다."

"The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met yesterday by conference call. At its meeting, the committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in June 2009. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in December 2007 and the beginning of an expansion. The recession lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest of any recession since World War II. Previously the longest postwar recessions were those of 1973-75 and 1981-82, both of which lasted 16 months."

라고 보고하고 있습니다.

2009년 6월에 이미 경기침체가 종료되었음에도 불구하고, NBER 위원회가 1년 3개월이 지난 시점에서야 경기침체 종료를 선언한 것은, NBER이 최대의 공신력을 지니는 기관으로, 경기 순환(Business Cycle) 지표는 후행적으로만 확실히 확인되기 때문이네요.

반면에, 컨퍼런스 보드(Conference Board)나 OECD는 2009년에 이미 미국이나 유럽권의 경기 침체(trough) 국면 종료를 선언한 바 있습니다.

이와 달리 NBER의 경기 침체 종료 선언이 큰 의미를 지니는 것은, 미국 경기 침체가 확실히 끝났다는 것을 확인하는 징표이기 때문입니다. 그래서 최근에 발표된 그 어떤 지표보다도 큰 의미를 가진다고 할 수 있습니다.

이번 NBER 발표문 전문은 홈페이지에서 확인할 수 있습니다. (링크 : http://www.nber.org/cycles/sept2010.html)



NBER 홈페이지에서 게재하고 있는 미국 경기 사이클의 확장, 침체 국면 표는 아래에서 확인할 수 있습니다.
(US Business Cycle Expansions and Contradictions, 링크 : http://www.nber.org/cycles/cyclesmain.html)

[미국경기사이클 변동표, Peak=경기고점, Trough=경기저점, 기간 안의 그리스문자는 연중 해당 분기(quarter)를
뜻합니다. Contraction=경기침체, Expansion=경기확장]


이 블로그에서는 2009년 6월에 이미 NBER의 미국 경기 사이클(US Business Cycle) 자료를 소개해 드린 바 있으며, 당시에 이미 18개월 이상이 되었기 때문에, 경기 침체의 저점 국면이 가깝다고 지적한 바 있습니다.
(관련글 : 미국 경기 침체기의 평균지속 기간, http://assetguide.tistory.com/670)

그런데 결국 2009년 6월이 정말로 경기침체의 종료 국면이었음이 이번 발표로 확인되었습니다.

미국 경기선행지수를 보면, 2010년 9월 23일 발표한 CB Leading Index(컨퍼런스보드 경기선행지수)도 월간으로 상승 추세를 연장해 가고 있는 것을 볼 수 있습니다.



다른 많은 관련 미국 경기지표들의 흐름이 있으나, 일단 위와 같이 경기순환(Business Cycle), 경기선행지수(Leading Index)를 볼 때, 미국 경기는 작은 진폭은 있겠으나, 점차 회복되어 갈 것으로 예상할 수 있습니다.



이에 따라, 미국 증시 주요지수(다우존스지수 DJIA, S&P500, NASDAQ)도 주말에는 큰 폭의 상승으로 마감했네요.

국내증시 코스피(KOSPI)를 포함한 세계 주요증시는 내년 2011년 1분기까지는 상승의 흐름을 무난하게 이어갈 것으로 전망합니다.



관련 코스피 주식 포트폴리오도 이 블로그에 제시되어 있으므로 검색해 보시면 크게 도움이 될 것으로 확신합니다.
(관련글, http://assetguide.tistory.com/category/Market)



맞춤검색

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2010년의 세번째 베이지북인 4월호 'Beige Book'이 4월 14일(현지) 미국에서 발표되었습니다.

베이지북(Beige Book)은 미국의 경제상황, 경기동향을 보여주는 대표적인 경제지표로 미국 연방준비은행(FRB, Federal Reserve Bank)가 연간 8회 작성하여 공개합니다.

2010녀 4월호는 올 해의 3번째 베이지북으로, 1월 13일, 3월 3일(현지)에 각각 1, 2호가 발행된 바 있습니다.

이번 4월호 보고서의 주요 내용을 보면,

"지난 보고서 이후로 모든 지역의 경제 활동의 개선되고 있다. (세인트루이스 제외) 
소매 판매와 자동차 판매도 늘어나고 있고, 관광산업도 개선되고 있다.
제조업 경기도 개선세에 있다.

주택착공과 주거용 부동산 시장을 비롯한 주택 경기, 건설 경기도 개선의 조짐이 보인다.
반면에 상업용 부동산은 여전히 약세에 머물러 있다.

노동시장은 여전히 약세이지만, 임금 상승 압박은 최소한에 머물러 있고,
소매 물가도 여전히 안정적이다."

위와 같은 내용으로 보고하여, 미국의 경기가 전 지역에서 개선세를 보이고 있음을 분명하게 했습니다. 



* 전미경제조사국(NBER, National Bureau of Economic Research)는 2007년 12월부터 미국 경제가 '침체기'에 빠져들었다고 이미 선언한 바 있는데, 아직까지 '회복세'로 전환했다고 밝히지 않았습니다. 그런데 해당 자료에 의하면, 미국의 1945년부터 2001년까지 '경기 침체기'의 평균 지속기간은 10개월이라고 하는데, 현재의 침체 기간은 벌써 28개월이 넘어서고 있습니다.
(관련글, 미국 경제 침체기의 평균 지속기간)

그래서 NBER이 미국 경제침체기의 종료를 공식 선언할 날도 얼마 남지 않은거 같네요.

이러한 영향으로 미국 다우지수(다우존스 지수, DJIA)는 이날 큰 폭으로 올랐습니다.



베이지북(Beige Book)은 미국 지역 연방은행들이 수집한 미국 12개 지역의 경기동향을 요약한 자료입니다.
이 자료는 미국 경제상황과 동향을 실시간으로 보여주는 핵심지표로 FRB가 직접 발표합니다.

이들 12개 지역을 보면, Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, San Francisco 입니다. (보스톤, 뉴욕, 필라델피아, 클리브랜드, 리치몬드, 아틀란타, 사카고, 세인트루이스, 미네아폴리스, 캔사스시티, 댈라스, 샌프라시스코)

다음 베이지북은 2010년 6월 9일(미국 현지)에 발표됩니다.

한편, 국내의 경우에도 코스피 지수가 먼저 움직인 감은 있으나, 2010년 연초의 시초가 1700p 부근에 4월 초반의 지수도 머물러 있기 때문에, 앞으로 연간 고점을 향해서는 여전히 상승의 폭이 열려있다고 볼 수 있겠습니다.

[관련글] 
주식시장 지수 변동성의 이해  /  주식투자 몇 월부터 하는게 좋을까?  /  주식투자 반드시 해야 하나? 
이효리 주식 투자 실패, 연예인 주식투자 10개 지침


첨부 : FRB 베이지북 2010년 4월호 보고서 요약 전문 (2010.04.14 Beige Book)

Summary 요약

Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and based on information collected before April 5, 2010. This document summarizes comments received from business and other contacts outside the Federal Reserve System and is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials.

요약 전문

Overall economic activity increased somewhat since the last report across all Federal Reserve Districts except St. Louis, which reported "softened" economic conditions. Districts generally reported increases in retail sales and vehicle sales. Tourism spending was up in a number of Districts. Reports on the services sector were generally mixed. Manufacturing activity increased in all Districts except St. Louis, and new orders were up. Many Districts reported increased activity in housing markets from low levels. Commercial real estate market activity remained very weak in most Districts. Activity in the banking and finance sector was mixed in a number of Districts, as loan volumes and credit quality decreased. Agricultural conditions were mixed as well, with positive conditions reported in Districts from the central and western parts of the country, while negative conditions were reported in the mid and southern Atlantic Districts. Mining and energy production and exploration increased for metals, oil and wind.

While labor markets generally remained weak, some hiring activity was evident, particularly for temporary staff. Wage pressures were characterized as minimal or contained. Retail prices generally remained level, but some input prices increased.

세부 항목

Consumer Spending and Tourism  소비자 소비, 관광
District reports indicated that consumer spending increased during the reporting period. New York and Cleveland reported that recent sales strengthened, while sales rebounded in Richmond and Kansas City. Slight sales gains were reported in Philadelphia. Retail sales in San Francisco continued to improve, but remained somewhat sluggish on net. In St. Louis several new establishments opened, particularly in the food industry. Several Districts described consumers as somewhat more confident. Businesses were cautiously optimistic regarding future sales: Cleveland, Atlanta, Kansas City and Dallas noted that retailers expect sales to improve during the upcoming months. Sales of home furnishings and electronic goods increased in a number of Districts, while seasonal apparel sales were up in New York, Philadelphia and Kansas City. New York and Minneapolis noted that shopping by Canadians was strong at businesses near the border. Atlanta reported that retailers continued to keep inventory levels lower than normal, and retailers in New York reported that inventories are in very good shape.

Vehicle sales improved in a number of Districts during March. New York, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Dallas and San Francisco noted that auto sales picked up in recent weeks. Cleveland described sales as decent, while sales were steady in Kansas City and mixed in Richmond. Several Districts noted that favorable pricing and credit terms helped lure buyers into showrooms. Dealers in Philadelphia indicated that they expect sales to increase during the next few months.

Tourism conditions also improved during the reporting period. New York, Richmond, Chicago, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas and San Francisco pointed to signs of increased tourism activity. Tourism was described as stable in most parts of the Atlanta District. Hotel occupancy rates were rising in New York, Chicago, Kansas City, and San Francisco. Reports on room rates were mixed: New York and Kansas City noted increases, while Chicago reported rate cuts, particularly at luxury hotels. Managers at mountain resorts in the Richmond District reported that this winter was one of their best ski seasons ever. However, Atlanta noted that corporate bookings remained at very low levels at some high-end resorts.

Nonfinancial Services  비농업 서비스
Business services were mixed, with some signs of economic recovery. Boston and Minneapolis reported increased activity. Richmond and Dallas were mixed, while San Francisco said demand remained lackluster. St. Louis reported that the sector continued to decline. Advertising and consulting firms in Boston said demand is up substantially from the first quarter of 2009, while an advertising contact in Richmond and professional media services firms in San Francisco characterized sales as flat at low levels. Dallas reported sluggish demand for nontax-related accounting and legal services. Law firms in Minneapolis specializing in debt collections and bankruptcy saw strong demand, while a Richmond property manager noted a large number of repossessions.

Manufacturing   제조업
Manufacturing activity increased since the last report across most of the country, with all Districts other than St. Louis reporting increases in orders, shipments, or production. Boston, Cleveland, Chicago, Dallas and San Francisco reported positive results in metals and fabrication. Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta and Chicago reported increased auto or auto component production. Boston, Richmond, Dallas, and San Francisco saw increased production in electronic, computers or high-technology goods. Chicago and Minneapolis saw increased production of energy-related products. However, for construction-related goods, Chicago and Dallas reported mixed conditions, Boston reported flat activity and St. Louis reported decreases. Overall, St. Louis saw more plant closures than plant openings.

Banking and Finance   은행 금융 
Bank lending activity was mixed by category in most Districts. Atlanta, St. Louis and Kansas City saw weaker loan demand across categories, while activity in San Francisco was flat at low levels and Dallas said that demand appears to be stabilizing. Demand for consumer credit decreased in New York and increased slightly in Philadelphia. Most banks in Cleveland reported weak consumer loan demand, although a few contacts saw a slight increase due to seasonal factors. Business and industrial loan volumes decreased in Philadelphia, Cleveland and Chicago and were flat in New York. San Francisco noted continued modest gains in venture capital funding.

Credit standards remained generally unchanged across the nation, while credit quality was mixed. New York, Cleveland and Kansas City reported tighter lending standards for commercial mortgages. In Atlanta several business contacts reported difficulty getting credit. Dallas and San Francisco said standards continued to be tight. New York saw increased delinquency rates for all categories except consumer loans, which were flat. Philadelphia and Richmond saw little change in credit quality, while Cleveland was mixed. Dallas reported that credit quality was either stabilizing or improving, and appeared to have turned a corner. Chicago noted an improvement in consumer and business loan quality, although credit quality for many small firms continued to decline.

Real Estate and Construction  부동산 건설
Residential real estate activity increased, albeit from low levels, in most Districts, with the exceptions of St. Louis, where it was mixed, and San Francisco, where it was flat. Contacts in Philadelphia, Cleveland and Kansas City expressed concern about whether sales would continue to grow after the expiration of the first-time home buyer tax credit. New York, Kansas City, Dallas and San Francisco noted sluggish sales for high-end homes. Home prices were stable across most Districts, but decreased in parts of the New York and Atlanta Districts. Residential construction activity increased slightly in New York, Atlanta, St. Louis, Minneapolis and Dallas, but remained weak in Cleveland, Chicago and San Francisco.

Commercial real estate activity was slow across the nation. Notable exceptions were Richmond, which saw an uptick in commercial leasing, and Dallas, where the sector was mixed and might be nearing bottom. In Boston, leasing activity consists largely of renewals, with many renewing tenants leasing less space. Manhattan Class A office rents were down 20 percent to 25 percent year over year. Contacts in Philadelphia, Richmond, Kansas City and Dallas expressed concern that lease concessions from landlords were putting downward pressure on rents. Commercial construction continued to be weak in most Districts. Cleveland saw some development in the energy and industrial segments.

Agriculture and Natural Resources  농업 천연자원
Districts reported mixed results in agriculture. Atlanta reported that cold weather negatively affected crop conditions. Richmond, Kansas City, and Dallas noted that wet conditions delayed planting, though Dallas also commented that current soil moisture levels will be beneficial for the growing season. Chicago expected a normal planting schedule. Minneapolis and San Francisco indicated favorable weather conditions. The calving season is doing well in the Minneapolis District, but Chicago and Minneapolis noted softening dairy output prices.

Activity in the energy and mining sectors increased since the last report. Philadelphia, Atlanta, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas and San Francisco saw increases in oil exploration. Coal production was mixed in the Philadelphia District and increased in the Kansas City District. In the Minneapolis District, more wind energy projects are planned, and mining activity increased.

Employment, Wages, and Prices  고용, 임금, 물가
While overall labor markets remained weak, some hiring activity was evident, particularly for temporary staff. Employment in the manufacturing and services sectors in Boston remained relatively unchanged, while very little hiring occurred at major legal and financial firms in New York. In the Richmond District, job cuts subsided at retail businesses, and employment was stable at most other services firms. In Kansas City overall employment levels held steady, but more manufacturers and several energy-related firms planned to increase payrolls. Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, and Chicago reported strong demand for temporary workers. A pickup in employment was noted in the manufacturing sector by Cleveland, with little change in staffing for retail, energy, transportation and banking. Atlanta noted that many businesses continued to increase hours worked for existing staff. Minneapolis reported that while labor markets remained weak, some signs of hiring were noted.

Wage pressures were characterized as minimal or contained. In Boston, most firms reported instituting or planning to institute modest wage increases of 2 percent to 3 percent in 2010, while performance bonuses in the services sector were generally down. Richmond reported that average wages edged higher in March in the services sector, but declined slightly in manufacturing. Most companies hiring new workers in the Kansas City District were not offering higher salaries to attract qualified applicants. Dallas reported that just a handful of firms were planning on partially reinstating employer matches to retirement plans or giving small pay increases. In Chicago wage pressures were minimal; however, an increase in health-care costs was noted. San Francisco also reported significant increases in the costs of employee benefits, such as health insurance and pensions.

Retail prices generally remained level, but some input prices increased. Where producers faced cost pressures on inputs, they were largely unable to pass those prices downstream to selling prices, although in Kansas City some manufacturers were considering raising selling prices due to higher raw materials costs. In Boston retail vendor and selling prices were stable. Philadelphia reported that prices of most goods and services have been steady, although there were increased reports of rising prices for basic materials and construction-related products. Apart from rising prices for steel and petroleum-based products in Cleveland, raw materials and product pricing were generally stable. Richmond noted moderate price increases in the manufacturing and services sectors. Chicago reported upward pressure on prices for plywood, industrial metals and petroleum-based fuels. In the Dallas District prices of chemicals and related products rose sharply, primarily due to plant outages. Natural gas prices slipped during the reporting period because of continued high levels of production, low industrial demand and the end of the winter season. Richmond and San Francisco reported increased overseas shipping costs.

2010
January

13

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273 KB PDF


February


March

3

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925 KB PDF


April

14

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683 KB PDF


May


June

9



July

28



August


September

8



October

20



November


December

1



2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 | 1996

1970 - present (on the web site of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)



맞춤검색

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미국 연방공개시장위원회(FOMC, Federal Open Market Committee)는 11월 공개 회의록에서 제로금리를 앞으로도 상당기간 유지해 나갈 것임을 밝혔습니다.
FOMC는 직전 9월 공개 의사록에서 미국 경기가 미약하지만 회복세가 나타나고 있다고 공식적으로 밝힌 바 있습니다.

이런 내용에 연속적으로 이번 11월 공개의사록에서도 금융시장의 안정화 기조, 가계 부분의 회복세, 물가의 안정 흐름을 밝혔습니다. 
그러나 이런 회복세는 강력하게 나타나고 있지는 않기 때문에, 가계 소비와 산업 경기가 확연하게 살아나기 까지는 상당한 기간이 소요될 것으로 보여, 물가가 안정적인 상황에서, 제로금리를 앞으로도 상당 기간 이어갈 것임을 재차 확인했습니다.

현재 미국 연방기금 금리 수준은 0.0%~0.25% 선에서 유지되고 있습니다.
2009년 마지막인 다음 FOMC 회의 의사록은 12월 15~16일(현지) 발표됩니다.

다음은 FOMC 11월 4일(현지) 발표 의사록 전문입니다.
 
Release Date: November 4, 2009

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September suggests that economic activity has continued to pick up. Conditions in financial markets were roughly unchanged, on balance, over the intermeeting period. Activity in the housing sector has increased over recent months. Household spending appears to be expanding but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, sluggish income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Businesses are still cutting back on fixed investment and staffing, though at a slower pace; they continue to make progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales. Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee anticipates that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will support a strengthening of economic growth and a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability.

With substantial resource slack likely to continue to dampen cost pressures and with longer-term inflation expectations stable, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time.

In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will continue to employ a wide range of tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. To provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and about $175 billion of agency debt. The amount of agency debt purchases, while somewhat less than the previously announced maximum of $200 billion, is consistent with the recent path of purchases and reflects the limited availability of agency debt. In order to promote a smooth transition in markets, the Committee will gradually slow the pace of its purchases of both agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities and anticipates that these transactions will be executed by the end of the first quarter of 2010. The Committee will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets. The Federal Reserve is monitoring the size and composition of its balance sheet and will make adjustments to its credit and liquidity programs as warranted.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Donald L. Kohn; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Daniel K. Tarullo; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.

출처 : Federal Reserve, FOMC 연간 캘린더


맞춤검색

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다음은 통계청이 발표한 국내 3/4분기 산업활동동향 흐름입니다.
국내 경기선행지수, 경기동행지수, 경기후행지수, 광공업생산지수, 제조업지수 등을 확인할 수 있습니다.
2009년 10월 30일에 발표한 3분기 산업활동동향 자료는 통계청 통계포털(kosis.kr)에서 열람할 수 있네요.

2009년 9월 월간으로 보면, 전월 대비하여, 광공업생산지수 5.4%, 제조업평균가동률 2.5%, 경기동행지수 0.1p, 설비투자지수 5.8%, 서비스업생산지수 4.2% 등 모든 지표에서 상승세가 나타나고 있어서, 경기 회복세가 계속되고 있다고 볼 수 있습니다.
 
주요 지표 내용을 보면, 아래와 같습니다.

◎ 2009. 9월 광공업생산지수 전월비 5.4%증가, 동월비 11.0%증가
◎ 2009. 9월 제조업평균가동률 80.2%, 전월보다 2.5%p 상승
◎ 2009. 9월 동행지수순환변동치 96.8, 전월보다 0.1p 상승
◎ 2009. 9월 설비투자지수 전월비 18.8%증가, 동월비 5.8% 증가
◎ 2009. 9월 소비재판매액지수  전월비 1.8% 증가, 동월비 6.7% 증가
◎ 2009. 9월 서비스업생산지수 전월비 2.6% 증가, 동월비 4.2% 증가

향후 경기국면을 예고해주는 경기선행지수를 보면, 전년동월비는 종합주가지수, 구인구직비율, 자본재수입액 등의 증가로 전월대비 1.0% 상승하여 9개월 연속 상승세를 이어가고 있다고 합니다.



실지로 경기선행지수를 자세히 보면, 전월비(%)는 2009년 1월에 최초로 양전환한 이후 , 2009년 5월에는 3%에 육박하는 전월비 증가율을 보여주었고, 가속도는 다소 느그러졌으나, 양전환(+) 추세는 계속 유지되고 있습니다. 9월에도 전월대비 0.7% 증가하였습니다.

경기선행지수 전월비(%)


전체적인 추세를 볼 때, 가을, 겨울의 계절성 요인은 반영되겠으나, 월간으로는 양전환(+) 추세가 계속될 것으로 기대되고, 전년 동월비로는 폭넓게 상승추세가 계속될 것으로 전망됩니다.

실지로 경기선행지수의 전년동월비(%)를 보면, 2009년 3월 최초로 양전환(+)한 이후로, 그 가속도가 계속 상승하고 있습니다.
경기가 전년도의 이 맘때 쯤에 비하여, 폭넓게 개선되고 있는 것입니다.


경기선행지수 전년 동월비(%)


광공업생산지수, 산업활동동향을 보면 3/4분기에 개선세가 확연해지면서,
제조업평균가동율, 광공업생산지수 제조업 (중화학, 경공업) 지표 모두 9월에 폭넓게 개선되었고, 최초로 양전환(+) 하는 모습도 나타나고 있습니다.

서비스업도 9월에 전년동월비(%) 양전환(+)하였습니다. 특히 내수 부분에서도 전년동월비 큰 폭으로 개선세가 나타나, 세계 경기와 수출세의 회복이 내수에 긍정적인 영향을 미치고 있음을 알 수 있습니다.

특히, 중기 추세를 살펴볼 수 있는 설비투자 지표에서도 8월 4.2%, 9월 18.8% 큰 폭의 양전환(+), 개선세가 나타나고 있어서, 2010년 이후의 경기전망은 중기추세로 볼 때 양호한 흐름이 예상된다고 전망할 수 있습니다.



경기선행지수를 반영하듯, 국내 코스피(KOSPI), 종합주가지수는 2009년 3월부터 재차 눌림목을 준 후, 상승 파동이 일어나 2009년 9월 1,700p대를 일시적으로 회복하였습니다.

하지만, 3분기까지의 상승 피로도와, 경기회복의 가속도 반영에 대한 경계감으로 10월말, 11월초 1,500p 초반까지 재차 밀린 바 있습니다.



그러나, 위에서 살펴본 바와 같이, 경기 회복의 중추세가 확연해지고 있고, 주가지수 상승에 따른 시간차 경계감이, 점차 시간이 흐를수록 해소되는 국면이기 때문에, 2010년, 2011년 주식 시장 전망은 대체로 긍정적이라고 평가할 수 있겠습니다.

2009년 7월경에 1,500p대 윗선의 코스피 지수는 그 속도상에 경계감을 요한다고 의견을 피력한 바 있으나, 이미 이 시점에서 3개월, 1분기 이상이 경과하였으므로 시간차에 따른 경계감은 제한적이라고 볼 수 있습니다.

한편, 1,700p대까지 상승한 주가지수는 1,500p대 초반까지 이미 이 시점에서 다시 밀리며 조정을 주었기 때문에,
1,500p 부근에서는 중장기 전망에 따라, 선별적인 업종과 기업군에서 점진적인 포트폴리오 재편성과 투자가 가능하다고 생각합니다.

이하 통계청 광공업생산지수, 경기종합지수, 경기선행지수 발표내용은 아래 내용을 참고할 수 있습니다. (출처: 통계청)


[관련글]
미국 2009년 3분기 GDP, 경제성장률 _3.5% 상승
미국 Beige Book 베이지북, 2009년 10월호, 미국 경제상황보고


맞춤검색

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2009년 3분기 미국 GDP, 경제성장률이 +3.5% 상승, 분기 처음으로 양전환(+)하며 예상치를 크게 상회하는 것으로 나타났습니다.
2008년 1분기 최초로 음전환(-)하여 마이너스 성장률을 보이던 미국 분기 GDP 성장률은, 금융위기의 한파 속에, 2009년 2분기까지 하락세를 보였습니다.
2008년 1분기 -0.7%, 2008년 2분기 1.5%에 이어, 2008년 3분기 -2.7%, 4분기 -5.4%, 2009년 1분기 -6.4%, 2분기 -1.0%를 보였습니다.(2005년 미국 GDP 기준)

이러한 하락세 이후의, 2009년 3분기 +3.5% 성장은, 4분기 연속 마이너스 성장률을 벗어나며 최초로 양전환(+)했다는데 큰 의미가 있습니다. 특히 예상치 3.2%를 넘어서는 3.5%의 성장률을 보여주었습니다.

전미경제조사국(NBER)은 2007년 12월부터 미국 경제가 침체에 들어섰다고 선언했기 때문에, 이로부터 2년 이상 경과한 현재시점은 경기사이클이 미약하나마 회복기로 전환될 시점으로 보는 것이 유력합니다. 따라서, NBER 스스로도 조만간 경기침체 종료 선언을 할 가능성이 높습니다.



미국경제분석국(BEA)은 미국 GDP, 경제성장률이 상승한 이유로 다음과 같은 점을 지적했습니다.

- 소비자 소비가 강하게 돌아서고 있다. 새 차와 트럭에 대한 구매가 큰 기여를 했는데, 7-8월에 시행된 연방의 "cash for clunkers" 프로그램(차량교체 프로그램)이 큰 역할을 했다.

- 주택 부문(Housing)이 15분기만에 최초로 돌아섰다.

- 재고투자, 수출, 정부지출이 역시 성장률에 기여했다고 밝혔습니다.


물가 부문을 보면, 3분기에 1.6%, 2분기에 0.5% 상승한 것에 불과하여 안정적이라고 밝혔습니다. 3분기에 다소 높은 것은 에너지 가격 상승만을 반영할 뿐이라고 합니다.


개인소득(Personal Income)은 정부의 사회안전 지원과, 미국 재건 및 재투자법(American Recovery and Reinvestment Act) 조치에 따라 향상되었으나, 이러한 지원 부분을 빼면, 3분기에는 다소 하락하였다고 하네요.

실제로 개인 소득 부분은 2분기 +0.6%에서, 3분기 -0.5%로 하락하였다고 합니다. 그러나 전체 중사이클 추세를 생각할 때, 무난하다고 볼 수 있는 대목입니다. 가처분소득은 전분기 +3.8% 상승에서, 3분기 -3.4% 감소하였으나, 2분기-3분기 전체적으로 보면 중립적인 수준에 있다고 볼 수 있겠습니다.

개인 저축률은 3분기에 3.3%를 기록했고, 2분기는 4.9%였습니다.


금번의 3분기 미국 GDP 추이를 보면, 정부 지출과 지원 프로그램에 따라 물론 예상보다 크게 나온 측면도 있으나, 4분기 연속 하락추세를 종결시키고, 최초로 양전환(+)했다는데 의미가 있습니다. 
또한 전분기 -1.0%에서 이번 분기 3.5%로, 상승 전환의 추세가 확실해졌기 때문에, 사실상 미국 경제위기는 종결되었다고 보는 것이 적절한 것으로 생각됩니다. 


따라서, 앞으로의 미국경제나 세계경제는 일상적인 사이클과 모멘텀에 따라 추세를 탈 것으로 생각합니다.
그 이전에, 미국 경기사이클의 침체를 선언했던 전미경제조사국(NBER)이 먼저 미국경기 침체의 종료를 공식 선언할 것으로 전망됩니다. 그 시기는 올해 11월이나 12월이 될 것으로 생각되는데, 이는 침체를 선언한 이후 약 2년만의 일이 될 것입니다.


다음은 BEA의 요약 발표 자료입니다.


GDP RISES 3.5 PERCENT IN THIRD QUARTER

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 3.5 percent in the third quarter of 2009 after decreasing 0.7
percent in the second quarter, according to estimates from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The third-quarter
increase was the first since the second quarter of 2008.

Gross Domestic Product

The rise in real GDP reflected the following:
• Consumer spending turned up strongly. Spending on new cars and trucks was a big contributor,
reflecting the federal “cash for clunkers” program, which was in effect in July and August.
• Housing increased for the first time in 15 quarters.
• Inventory investment, exports, and government spending also added to growth.

Prices
Prices of goods and services purchased by U.S. residents increased 1.6 percent in the third quarter after
increasing 0.5 percent in the second quarter, mainly reflecting an upturn in energy prices.
Excluding food and energy, prices rose 0.5 percent after rising 0.8 percent.

Personal Income
In the second quarter, personal income was boosted by government payments to recipients of social security and
other benefits enacted in American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. Coming off those payments, personal
income declined in the third quarter.

Current-dollar personal income fell 0.5 percent after rising 0.6 percent. Real disposable personal income—
income adjusted for inflation and taxes—declined 3.4 percent in the third quarter after increasing 3.8 percent in
the second quarter.

The personal saving rate—personal saving as a percent of current-dollar disposable personal income—was 3.3
percent in the third quarter. In the second quarter, it was 4.9 percent.



출처 : 미국 경제분석국(BEA)


[관련글]
미국 경기침체기의 평균 지속 기간 
미국 GDP, 경제성장률 변화 추이 _1995~2009
2009년 3분기 국내 GDP +2.9% 상승 (Korea)


맞춤검색

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미국 FRB의 베이지북 Beige Book, 2009년 10월호가, 10월 21일(현지) 발표되었습니다.
베이지북은 미국의 경제상황, 경기동향을 보여주는 중심지표로 연간 8회 작성, 공개되는데, 2009년 7번째에 해당합니다.
2009년 마지막 베이지북 발표는 2009년 12월 2일로 예정되어 있습니다.

이번 베이지북에서 FRB는 보고서 작성의 기초 대상이 되는 연방 12개 지역에서 경기는 안정화와 개선세가 나타나고 있다고 밝혔습니다. FRB는 지난 9월 9일 베이지북에서 미국 경기가 "개선세를 보이고 있다"고 이미 분명하게 밝힌 바 있습니다.

이번 보고서에서는, 주택용 부동산 시장과 제조업의 개선세가 확연해지고 있다고 지적했습니다.
반면에, 상업용 부동산 시장은 여전히 가장 침체한 부분으로 지적하고 있습니다.

물가와 임금상승 압박은 크지 않은 가운데, 안정적인 수준을 계속 유지하고 있다고 합니다.

베이지북(Beige Book)은 지역 연방은행들이 수집한 미국 각 12개 지역의 경기동향을 요약한 자료로,
미국 경제상황을 보여주는 핵심지표로 작용하며, 연방준비은행 FRB, Federal Reserve Bank가 발표합니다.

이들 12개 지역은 Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, San Francisco 입니다. (보스톤, 뉴욕, 필라델피아, 클리브랜드, 리치몬드, 아틀란타, 사카고, 세인트루이스, 미네아폴리스, 캔사스시티, 댈라스, 샌프라시스코)



첨부 : FRB 베이지북 보고서 전문 파일(2009.10.21 Begie Book)

Summary


Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and based on information collected before October 13, 2009. This document summarizes comments received from businesses and other contacts outside the Federal Reserve and is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials.

전문요지

Reports from the 12 Federal Reserve Districts indicated either stabilization or modest improvements in many sectors since the last report, albeit often from depressed levels. Leading the more positive sector reports among Districts were residential real estate and manufacturing, both of which continued a pattern of improvement that emerged over the summer. Reports on consumer spending and nonfinancial services were mixed. Commercial real estate was reported to be one of the weakest sectors, although reports of weakness or moderate decline were frequently noted in other sectors.

Reports of gains in economic activity generally outnumber declines, but virtually every reference to improvement was qualified as either small or scattered. For example, Dallas cited slight improvements residential real estate and staffing firms, while New York noted gains only in a few sectors (predominantly manufacturing and retail). Retail and manufacturing conditions were mixed in Boston, but some signs of improvement were reported. New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, and San Francisco cited small pickups in manufacturing activity. In the Kansas City District, an uptick was noted in technology firms, while services firms posted revenue gains in Richmond. However, conditions were referred to as stable or flat for business services and tourism firms in Minneapolis and agriculture in St. Louis and Kansas City.

The weakest sector was commercial real estate, with conditions described as either weak or deteriorating across all Districts. Banking also faltered in several Districts, with Kansas City and San Francisco noting continued erosion in credit quality (often with more expected in the future). One bright spot in the banking sector was lending to new homebuyers, in response to the first-time homebuyer tax credit. Finally, labor markets were typically characterized as weak or mixed, but with occasional pockets of improvement.

Districts generally reported little or no increase to either price or wage pressures, but references to downward pressures were occasionally noted. While upward price pressures were generally subdued in most Districts, materials prices increased in Cleveland (mainly for steel) and Kansas City. Manufactured goods prices were flat to up slightly in Boston. Boston reported that in some market segments "product competition and customer clout are leading to downward pressure on prices." Minimal wage pressures were noted in Cleveland and Minneapolis.


부문별 내용

Consumer Spending and Tourism  소비 지출, 여행
Consumer spending remained weak in most Districts since the last report, although some improvements were noted. Chicago reported a continued decrease but at a slower rate than in the previous reporting period, and retailers maintained low inventories. Richmond reported flat or declining sales; Dallas indicated sales were largely unchanged. However, Dallas reported unexpected weakness at value-based retailers. Sales were mixed, according to Boston, St. Louis, and Kansas City, with Kansas City citing strong sales of cold weather apparel and lower-priced goods. San Francisco remarked that sales were little changed, with the exception of an increase in furniture sales. Although New York observed weak sales in upstate New York, general merchandise retailers in the City were ahead of plan and same-store sales were roughly on par with a year earlier. Boston noted that large-scale retailers had cut inventory due to weak sales. Philadelphia saw a pickup in back-to-school shopping. Cleveland observed that consumers were very price-sensitive and inventories were lean; nonetheless, sales were flat or slightly improved.

The "cash-for-clunkers" program ended in August, leaving depleted inventories and slower sales in its wake. New vehicle sales declined in New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco. However, Chicago reported a pick-up in vehicle sales in early October. Low new-car inventories helped to move used cars in several Districts, although San Francisco commented that the demand for used cars also weakened. New York also reported that automobile dealers saw some improvement in credit conditions for consumers looking to purchase cars.

Looking to expectations for holiday sales, Chicago anticipated improved sales, while Philadelphia retailers expected consumers to limit spending. However, Third District merchants also noted that store traffic increased recently. Atlanta reported that two-thirds of contacts expected flat or declining sales over the next three months.

Tourist activity varied across Districts. Boston, New York, and Atlanta described business travel as extremely soft, whereas Richmond observed solid growth in group bookings. Occupancy rates held steady in New York, spurred by increased leisure visitors, while aggressive discounting boosted cruise-line occupancy rates in Atlanta. San Francisco reported a deep slide in hotel and resort visits in Southern California and Las Vegas, but noted a continued firming of occupancy rates in Hawaii. Richmond indicated overall bookings were much improved over last year, while Kansas City reported occupancy rates remained below year-ago-levels. Room rates continued to decline in several Districts, including New York and Atlanta. In contrast, Boston said that hotels were offering dramatic promotional deals and discounts on local attractions, which preserved posted room rates.

Nonfinancial Services  비금융 서비스
Nonfinancial services firms had mixed reports in recent weeks. Kansas City observed increased demand for high-tech services and Richmond noted generally increased revenues, particularly in telecommunications and healthcare services. Demand for healthcare services also picked up in the Boston District. Minneapolis observed that activity in nonfinancial services firms was mostly flat at low levels, although technology consultants reported an uptick and competition heated up among engineering firms. In contrast, San Francisco contacts indicated that demand for services in general fell, and elective medical procedures were being deferred. St. Louis noted that revenues declined at several large firms in business support services.

Transportation services activity generally declined, although Cleveland and Chicago reported some strengthening. Atlanta observed weak transportation demand overall, and firms in the San Francisco District indicated that trucking had declined. Import demand in the Dallas District fell, leading to a reduction in cargo volumes at intermodal firms. Activity in the transportation sector was flat, according to Kansas City. In contrast, the cash-for-clunkers program helped to clear dealership lots, which prompted dealers to restock their depleted inventories and drove up car shipments. Chicago reported that trucking shipments increased, although the level of activity remained low, and Cleveland's contacts cited an uptick in freight transport volume in recent weeks. Cleveland also noted that trucking companies planned substantial equipment purchases through the first quarter of 2010. Business travel by air declined since the last report, according to San Francisco, while airlines in the Dallas District reported stabilized demand--albeit at low levels.

Manufacturing  제조업
Most Districts reported that manufacturing activity was generally stronger since the last report. New York, Richmond, Minneapolis and Kansas City all noted a further pickup in production, while Philadelphia, Cleveland, Chicago and San Francisco mentioned slight-to-moderate increases. Growth rates varied by industry, however, and some Districts experienced little or no overall increase. Boston reported that manufacturing activity was mixed, but had stabilized or shown modest improvement in certain industries. Similarly, Dallas said overall demand in manufacturing was flat at weak levels albeit with pickups in the high-tech, food, and petrochemical industries. St. Louis indicated that manufacturing continued its net decline, and Atlanta noted moderate declines in orders and production. Some Districts (Boston, Richmond and Chicago) mentioned that year-over-year drops in new orders of housing-related products had abated. Cleveland, Richmond, and Chicago reported substantial increases in auto and parts production, which were attributed primarily to restocking dealers' and manufacturers' inventories. Accordingly, lean inventories and stronger demand from the auto sector led to an increase in steel production in the Cleveland and Chicago Districts.

Comments on the near-term outlook varied across Districts. Boston, Philadelphia, Cleveland, and Kansas City reported that their contacts expected only slight gains and modest economic growth during the next six months. Therefore, capital spending plans remained subdued, and centered mostly on new product development or cost reduction. Dallas indicated that planned projects and routine maintenance were being deferred to conserve capital. New York, however, reported that respondents were increasingly optimistic about the near-term outlook and expected to hire more workers and spend more on capital.

Real Estate and Construction  부동산, 건설
Most Districts reported that housing market conditions improved in recent weeks, primarily from a pickup in sales of low- to middle-priced houses. Contacts reported that sales were boosted by the government's tax credit for first-time homebuyers. Resale activity also edged up in parts of the New York District, although prices continued to be depressed due to a substantial volume of foreclosures and short sales. New and existing home sales remained flat in the Philadelphia District, and home sales continued to decline throughout the St. Louis District. Sales of higher-priced homes were very slow, according to Philadelphia, Cleveland, and Kansas City. Moreover, real estate agents in the Boston and Cleveland Districts were uncertain about the future of home sales once the tax credit expires. Availability of financing continued to be a concern for potential buyers in the Cleveland and Chicago Districts.

Residential construction activity remained weak in most Districts. Atlanta reported that construction remained very low, and Cleveland expected new home construction to proceed at a slow pace. Chicago indicated that construction on existing developments edged up, but St. Louis reported that construction activity declined. Kansas City reported that housing starts stabilized, although levels remained well below a year ago and were not expected to improve over the next three months. Philadelphia noted that builders continued to offer increased incentives to boost sales.

Commercial real estate continued to weaken across the 12 Districts, although even this sector had scattered bright spots. Each District indicated that demand for private commercial real estate was weak, with New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Kansas City, and San Francisco all characterizing activity as declining further since the last report. An inability to obtain credit was often cited as a problem for businesses that wanted to purchase or build space. High vacancy rates were noted as a key concern especially for landlords who were not offering concessions. And, while industrial real estate in the Richmond District was generally weak, renewed interest by retailers to revisit postponed expansion plans was also noted. Finally, public nonresidential construction activity funded by federal stimulus projects was a source of strength in the Cleveland, Chicago, Minneapolis, and Dallas Districts, but gains were often offset by state and local government cutbacks.

Banking and Financial Services  은행, 금융 서비스
Many Districts continued to report weak or declining loan demand, and many noted further erosion of credit quality. For example, demand was reported as stable or declining by New York, St. Louis, and Kansas City. Cleveland noted that commercial and industrial lending was soft and consumer lending was flat or reduced. In the Richmond District, modest signs of improvement in consumer loans were cited from banks in areas typically supported by the health care and education industries. Philadelphia also reported a small gain in consumer lending. San Francisco said that loan demand was "largely stable or perhaps rose slightly." A major exception to the general pattern of weak or declining lending activity was in residential real estate. Most Districts cited the federal government's first-time homebuyer program as supporting residential lending activity. However, Dallas reported that residential mortgage demand was disappointing, and St. Louis mentioned a moderate decline in real estate lending.

Credit quality continued to be a problem, and rising delinquencies were often noted. For example, credit quality was described as stable or declining in the Philadelphia, Cleveland, and Kansas City Districts. Half of the contacts for Kansas City expected loan quality to continue to erode over the next six months. Cleveland stated that the quality of loan applicants had deteriorated somewhat, mostly on the business side. Delinquencies were also widely reported to be up; New York particularly noted rising delinquency rates among both consumer and commercial mortgage loans.

Employment, Wages, and Prices  고용, 임금, 물가
Labor market conditions were generally reported as weak or mixed across Districts, but a few encouraging signs were noted. Employment activity was soft in the Kansas City District, and hiring remained limited in the Boston District. While a slowdown in layoffs was reported by Atlanta, no hiring was generally expected. Reports from Cleveland were mixed, but indicated declining employment in commercial construction and coal mining. Employment levels held steady in the Dallas District, with scattered reports of layoffs. However, staffing firms there noted improvement in contract and temporary employment. Minneapolis reported a weak labor market, but some signs of improvement were noted among auto-related industries. A major New York employment agency specializing in office workers reported renewed softening in recent weeks, with only scattered hiring at financial institutions and virtually no hiring in the legal and publishing industries. Richmond noted reports from temporary employment agencies were evenly mixed between reports of strengthening and weakening, but with increased optimism for the near term expressed since the last report.

Wage and price pressures were generally described as subdued across most Districts. Wages were flat in the San Francisco District, but increased moderately in the Minneapolis District. In the Boston District, business services firms (mainly advertising and consulting) reported modest salary increases, but a decline in bonuses left total compensation slightly reduced. Wage pressures were characterized as "not significant" in the Chicago District and "contained" in the Cleveland District.

Prices followed a similar pattern to wages, with reports of little significant pressure on either input or output prices, although moderate increases were observed for materials prices. For example, prices movements were characterized as generally subdued or little changed in the Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Minneapolis Districts. Cleveland noted stable construction materials prices, but added that the cost of steel had experienced an uptick. Materials prices in general were reported to be up in the Kansas City District. Boston said that selling prices of manufacturing goods were flat to slightly up, but noted that product competition and consumer clout was leading to downward pressures in some market segments. Retail price inflation slowed slightly in the Richmond District, while retail prices were stable in the Philadelphia District and edged down in the Chicago, Kansas City, and San Francisco Districts.

Agriculture and Natural Resources  농업, 천연자원
Assessments of agricultural activity were mixed. Reports from Richmond and Minneapolis indicated that favorable growing conditions allowed farmers to make steady progress in harvesting summer crops and planting winter crops. In some parts of the Minneapolis District, however, a persistent drought delayed harvesting. In contrast, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, and Dallas Districts all noted unusually high amounts of rainfall. In the Atlanta District, floods damaged some of North Georgia's nurseries, vegetable farms, and commercial vineyards, but benefited Florida citrus growers. Similarly, widespread rains brought much-needed relief to drought-stricken parts of the Dallas District, allowing many ranchers to scale back costly supplemental feeding--but not in time to prevent severe losses to livestock and crops. Chicago and St. Louis mentioned that wet weather had slowed crop maturity and harvesting, while Chicago reported lower than expected yields. Kansas City indicated that, despite some delayed harvests, farmers expected above-average yields.

Activity in the energy industry remained weak. Atlanta, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco reported increases in oil and gas inventories as demand continued to weaken. Atlanta indicated that refining margins continued to deteriorate, which led to delays in new projects. Cleveland noted that sharply lower contract prices for coal prompted coal miners to continue their deep cutbacks in production and to keep their capital spending on hold. Kansas City mentioned that overall drilling activity improved slightly, but that rig counts were still at historically low levels. Dallas remarked that rig counts rose in September and early October, spurred by oil drilling. However, Dallas also indicated that, despite the increase, excess capacity in the industry had resulted in job losses and weak domestic pricing. Minneapolis reported that activity in the energy and mining sectors increased slightly and noted that oil and gas exploration inched up in late September.


2009
January

14

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February


March

4

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187 KB PDF


April

15

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253 KB PDF


May


June

10

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232 KB PDF


July

29

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276 KB PDF


August


September

9

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166 KB PDF


October

21

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289 KB PDF


November


December

2



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1970 - present (on the web site of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)

[관련글]
2009-09-09 미국 베이지북 2009년 9월호


맞춤검색

,


미국의 연방공개시장위원회(FOMC, Federal Open Market Committee)가 9월 공개 회의록에서 미국 경기침체가 저점을 지났으며, 금융시장과 주택시장을 중심으로 점차 회복세가 나타나고 있다고 진단하였습니다.
한편, 연방기금 금리는 기존대로 0.0~0.25%를 유지하면서, 경기회복을 위한 모든 가용 수단을 계속 동원하겠다는 의지를 재차 피력했습니다.

미국 기준금리를 결정하는 FOMC 회의는 1년에 8차례 열리며, 공개의사록도 8번 공개됩니다. 다음 FOMC 회의는 11월 2~3일간(현지) 열립니다.

FOMC는 이번 회의록에서 미국 경기가 침체의 최저점을 지났다고 최초로 분명히 밝혔습니다.

다음은 9월 23일 (현지) FOMC 의사록 전문입니다.


FOMC Statement

Release Date: September 23, 2009

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August suggests that economic activity has picked up following its severe downturn.  Conditions in financial markets have improved further, and activity in the housing sector has increased.  Household spending seems to be stabilizing, but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, sluggish income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit.  Businesses are still cutting back on fixed investment and staffing, though at a slower pace; they continue to make progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales.  Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee anticipates that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will support a strengthening of economic growth and a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability.

경기활동의 저점이 지났다고 보인다. 금융시장, 주택시장은 회복하고 있다.


With substantial resource slack likely to continue to dampen cost pressures and with longer-term inflation expectations stable, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time.

인플레이션 위험은 상당기간 안정적으로 유지될 것이다. 

In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will continue to employ a wide range of tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability.  The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.  To provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $200 billion of agency debt.  The Committee will gradually slow the pace of these purchases in order to promote a smooth transition in markets and anticipates that they will be executed by the end of the first quarter of 2010.  As previously announced, the Federal Reserve’s purchases of $300 billion of Treasury securities will be completed by the end of October 2009.  The Committee will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets.  The Federal Reserve is monitoring the size and composition of its balance sheet and will make adjustments to its credit and liquidity programs as warranted.

경기회복을 위한 모든 가용 수단을 계속 사용해 나갈 것이다.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Donald L. Kohn; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Daniel K. Tarullo; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.



출처 : Federal Reserve, FOMC 연간 캘린더




맞춤검색

,

경기가 본질적인 개선의 양상이 나타나고 있고, 미국의 경우 경기침체 종료 선언이 임박했다고 보이기 때문에, 주말에 4차 포트폴리오를 제시하려고 합니다.

이미 경제란이든 주식란이든 각종 게시판을 통하여, 그동안 줄곧 대중적으로 포트폴리오를 공개해왔습니다.

여기에 이렇게 글을 써 온 이유는, 미네르바 같은 엄한 사람이 엄한 내용으로 혹세무민하면 안되기 때문입니다. 합리적으로 제반 상황이나, 내용을 충분히 검토하지도 않고, 잘못된 결론을 도출해도 문제인데, 거기다가 거짓말을 하면서도 아무런 꺼리낌도 느끼지 못한다면 뭐가 크게 잘못된 것입니다. 그의 '말'이나 '의도'가 완전히 '거짓'은 아니었으나, 시기가 적절하지 못했고 뒷북에 가까웠으며, 무엇보다 '거짓'으로 말했다는 것이 가장 큰 문제입니다.

물론 누구도 완벽할 수 없고, 저도 완벽하지는 않으나, 남들보다 잘 보이는 것이나(남들도 잘 보겠지만), 먼저 보이는 것을 바탕으로 할 때, 주도적 담론이 혹세무민으로 밝혀지면, 알려드려야할 의무가 있겠죠?

그런 의미에서 2008년 연말부터 (물론 그 이전에 2007년초부터 공개적으로 포트폴리오나 지수에 대해 계속 말씀드려왔었습니다.) 이 게시판에다 지수나 경기상황, 투자 요점이나 포트폴리오 구성에 대해 그 내용을 올려왔습니다.

이런 포트폴리오는 4차례 제시되었는데, 이중 2008년  11월 26일 포트폴리오부터 모든 내용이 여기 게시판에서 공개되었습니다.

포트폴리오 내역과 그 성과는 아래와 같습니다.

2008.10.27 1차 포트폴리오 제시,
2008.11.26 2차 포트폴리오 제시,
2008.12.08 오바마 포트폴리오 제시,
2009.01.13 3차 포트폴리오 제시










물론 이를 바탕으로 투자하시는 분들은 참고하시고, 투자를 안하시는 분들은 안해도 상관없는 겁니다. 다만 혹세무민하고 엄한 내용들이 주도적 담론을 형성하는 것을 경계해야 한다는 것입니다.
(이 점에 대해서 깊게 얘기하지는 않겠습니다.)




코스피(KOSPI) 지수의 흐름을 보면, 전체 지수 흐름을 봤을 때, 4월 중순에 일부 청산, 차익 실현하고 경계가 필요했고 (일부 이렇게 실행), 7월말에 지수가 기술적 저항을 극복하면서 갭상승할 때 재매수 할 수 있는 자리였습니다.(코멘트 안드림)

위의 포트폴리오들은 중장기 포트폴리오들로 이미 목표 달성상태입니다. 같은 종목을 다시 재매수하더라도, 이익실현하고 전체 포트폴리오를 재구성해도 상관없는 자리입니다.

여하튼, 현재 증시가 지수영향력이 큰 일부 종목군으로 역사적 신고가를 상당기간 시현할 움직임이 있고,

미국 경기의 경기 침체선언의 초기 국면에 진입했다고 보이기 때문에, 지수가 의외로 강세로 계속 흐를 가능성도 높습니다. 왜냐하면, 미국 증시, 다우존스(다우지수, DJIA)는 아직 경기개선 반영이 크게 나타나지도 않았기 때문에, 경기확장이 가시화된다면 상승 여력은 다분히 높습니다.



실제로, 최근 미국의 주요 경기지표를 보면 확연하게 의미있는 추세전환의 신호를 보이고 있다고 살펴본 바 있습니다. 이러한 지표에 따라 미국 증시의 회복 추세는 조만간 더욱 큰 가속도가 붙을 수 있습니다. 위의 차트를 보면 다우존스는 연봉으로 이제 막 연 시초가 9,000p 수준을 탈출한 것에 불과하기 때문입니다.


일부에서, 뉴욕대학교 루비니(Nouriel Roubini), 노벨경제학상 수상자들인 프린스턴대 폴 크루그먼(Paul Robin Krugman), 콜럼비아대 요셉 스티글리츠(Joseph E. Stiglitz) 등의 부정적 견해와 전망을 인용하나, 이들은 경제학자들이지 주식매매자나 트레이더(Trader)들이 아닙니다. 경제학자들은 경제제도나 거시경제를 보는 것이며, 현실 구조적인 문제들을 항상 지적하는 것입니다. 즉, 시장 전망에 대한 그들의 견해가 반드시 적시에 정확한 것은 아닙니다.
한편 자본주의와 그 구조는 언제나 완벽하지 않기 때문에, 그 문제점들을 지적하는 것은 학자들로서 매우 당연한 역할이고 활동입니다. 그렇다고 자본주의나 시장경제, 금융시스템이 망했습니까? 항상 공중에 붕 떠있는게 '시장경제'거든요. 관리해 가는 겁니다. 관리안하면 벌써 망했죠. 지금도 세계 금융체제 공조를 해서 관리해 가지 않습니까. 

2분기초에 전망드린 바, 3분기에나 새로운 포트폴리오를 구성하여 제시할 생각이라고 밝힌 바 있습니다.
당시에 지수 1,700p가 가는 한이 있더라도, 차후 포트폴리오는 3분기 쯤에나 생각해 보자고 말씀드렸는데, 실제로 지수가 1,700p가 왔습니다.

이런 포트폴리오는 내년 중순쯤에 구성하여 진입해도 무난할 것으로 생각되었으나, 시세가 나타나지 않은 종목군에서는 지수와 상관없이 구성하여 보유하는 것이 가능해 보입니다. 왜냐하면 '주가'는 '선도성'이 있어서 업황이나 경기가 개선되기 이전에 먼저 움직이는 경향이 있기 때문입니다..

이 포트폴리오는 주말 경에 주요 종목과 간단한 이유와 함께 제시하려고 합니다.

외람되나, 이 게시판에서 필자를 언급할 때, 스스로 '대한민국 증권 최고수'라고 밝힌 바 있습니다. 외람되나 실제로 가치투자, 모멘텀투자를 아우르는 측면에서는 '워런 버핏'에 많이 뒤지지 않습니다. 따라서, 참고하시면 좋습니다. 기존에 참고하신 분들도 주식 보유, 경기 전망 측면에서 많이 도움이 되셨을 것으로 믿습니다. 참고로 이렇게 게시판들을 활용하는 것은 제가 달리 하려는 일이 있기 때문이에요. 이 일을 전업이나 본업으로 해도 되지만, 더 의미있는 일들을 하려고 합입니다. (물론 기회가 되면, 이 일들도 본격적으로 할 수도 있겠지만, 확신할 수는 없네요.)

아마 이 포트폴리오가 올해의 마지막 선물이 될 것으로 보이며, 내년에는 조용히 지낼거 같네요.




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