미국 FRB의 베이지북, Beige Book 2009년 7월호가, 7월 29일(현지) 발표되었습니다.

베이지북은 미국의 경제상황, 경기동향을 보여주는 주요지표로 연간 8회 작성, 공개됩니다.

베이지북은 미국 12개 각 지역 연방은행들이 수집한 미국 12개 지역의 경기동향을 요약한 자료로,
미국 경제상황을 보여주는 핵심지표로 작용하며, FRB, Federal Reserve Bank 가 발표합니다.

이들 12개 지역은 Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, San Francisco 입니다.

다음 베이지북은 9월 9일, 10월 21일, 12월 2일 발표될 예정입니다.

이번 발표의 내용을 보면, 직전에 발표된 6월 10일 보고서와 유사하게, 경기침체의 가속도가 둔화하였음을 나타내고 있습니다.
따라서, 다음에 발표될 9월, 10월, 12월 중의 하반기 보고서에서는 상황이 보다 더 개선될 가능성은 충분히 열려있습니다.
그러나, 그런 시기적 모멘텀이 중요한 것이 아니라, 그 내용을 들여다보고 확인한 후 판단해야 할 것입니다.

fullreport20090729.pdf

첨부 : 보고서 전문 파일 (2009.07.29. Beige Book)

Summary

Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and based on information collected on or before July 20, 2009. This document summarizes comments received from business and other contacts outside the Federal Reserve and is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials.

전문요지

Reports from the 12 Federal Reserve Districts suggest that economic activity continued to be weak going into the summer, but most Districts indicated that the pace of decline has moderated since the last report or that activity has begun to stabilize, albeit at a low level. Five Districts used the words "slow", "subdued", or "weak" to describe activity levels; Chicago and St. Louis reported that the pace of decline appeared to be moderating; and New York, Cleveland, Kansas City, and San Francisco pointed to signs of stabilization. Minneapolis said the District economy had contracted since the last report.

12개 연방 지역에서 경제활동은 여름에 접어들면서도 약화되었다. 그러나 침체의 속도(pace)는 직전 보고서 이후 비록 낮은 정도이기는 하나, 안정화되고 둔화되었음을 나타내고 있다.

Most Districts reported sluggish retail activity. Cleveland, Richmond, and Minneapolis noted further declines in sales, although results were somewhat mixed or positive according to retailers in the Boston, Philadelphia, St. Louis, Kansas City, and San Francisco Districts. Manufacturing activity showed some improvement in the Richmond, Chicago, and Kansas City Districts; while St. Louis and Dallas reported some moderation of declines; Philadelphia and Minneapolis saw activity decrease; and most other Districts indicated that manufacturing activity continued at low levels. Boston, Richmond, St. Louis, Minneapolis, and San Francisco reported contractions in services industries. Banking sectors in the New York, Cleveland, Richmond, St. Louis, Kansas City, and San Francisco Districts experienced weaker demand for some categories of loans. Residential real estate markets stayed soft in most Districts, although many noted some signs of improvement. By contrast, commercial real estate markets weakened further in recent months in two-thirds of the Districts and remained slow in the others.

소매판매, 매출은 여전히 둔화세이고, 제조활동은 낮은 수준을 유지하고 있다. 주거용 주택시장은 안정화되고 있으며, 일부 주에서는 개선 조짐도 나타나고 있다. 반면에, 상업용 부동산 시장은 최근 수 개월에 더욱 침체하였다.

Districts reported varied--but generally modest--price changes across sectors and products, with competitive pressures damping increases; however, Boston, Cleveland, Chicago, Minneapolis, and Dallas noted that some metals prices have increased in recent months. Most Districts indicated that labor markets were extremely soft, with minimal wage pressures, and cited the use of various methods of reducing compensation in addition to, or instead of, freezing or cutting wages.

노동시장의 압박은 둔화하고 있는데, 임금삭감과 동결보다는 다른 대체 수단을 사용하고 있기 때문이다. 


부분별 내용

Consumer Spending and Tourism
Consumer spending in the early summer remained below previous-year levels in most Districts, as households continued to be price conscious. Boston, Kansas City, and San Francisco experienced either modest sales increases or less negative sales results than in recent reporting periods. Philadelphia, Atlanta, St. Louis, New York, and Dallas cited flat or mixed sales, while sales in the remaining Districts remained soft. Several Districts noted that consumers focused on purchasing less expensive necessities, while sales of big ticket items languished. Retailers in Boston, Philadelphia, and Dallas characterized their outlook as cautious.

Auto sales were mixed across the country. Chicago, Minneapolis, and Kansas City saw modest increases in car sales, while New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, and Atlanta continued to experience subdued sales. The exception was sales of used vehicles, which continued to be strong or were strengthening, according to Philadelphia, Cleveland, Atlanta, Kansas City, and San Francisco.

Travel and tourism declined in the majority of Districts. The San Francisco District observed a sharp drop in luxury and business travel, while tourism activity in New York City was weak but stable since the last Beige Book report. Tourism contacts along the Atlantic coast reported that with the exception of July 4th holiday bookings, business was generally weaker than a year ago. Hotel room rates have declined in several Districts.

Nonfinancial Services
District reports regarding nonfinancial services industries were largely negative, although they included a few bright spots. The Minneapolis, St. Louis, and Dallas Districts indicated that demand for professional services such as business support, architecture, and legal services continued to decline or remained soft. By contrast, reports from the healthcare sector were largely positive, with the San Francisco, Minneapolis, and Richmond Districts citing steady to increased demand for medical services, and the Atlanta, Cleveland, Chicago, and Dallas Districts reporting hiring activity in health care. Technology-related firms in the Kansas City District also reported heightened activity, especially in the clean technology and defense-driven aerospace markets. Richmond and Minneapolis noted increased demand for information technology workers, and Atlanta saw hiring activity in the defense and aerospace industry. Staffing industry contacts in numerous Districts suggested a higher demand for temporary or part-time workers over permanent hires, and Atlanta noted that employers were taking advantage of a higher supply of skilled labor to improve the quality of their workforces.

Nearly all Districts reporting on transportation services observed continued weakness. Freight transport respondents from the Atlanta, Dallas, and Cleveland Districts noted that cargo volumes remain below year-earlier levels. While Cleveland contacts reported that competitive shipping rates are being maintained, trucking contacts from the Atlanta District noted that an oversupply of trucks relative to demand has exerted downward pressure on rates. A few Districts also reported reduced airline traffic, especially amongst business travelers.

Manufacturing
Reports on the manufacturing sector remained subdued but were slightly more positive than in the previous Beige Book. Many Districts characterized manufacturing activity as remaining depressed but with selected signs of modest improvement. Philadelphia, Minneapolis, Atlanta, and St. Louis reported decreased manufacturing activity; however, the latter two Districts noted that the overall rate of decline abated in the latest reporting period. Richmond and Kansas City reported rising manufacturing activity, albeit chiefly in nondurables industries. Districts attributed some of the recent increases in production to replenishment of finished-goods or customer inventories.

Chicago indicated that the quick resolutions of the Chrysler and GM bankruptcies have boosted business confidence, and that automakers were scheduling a pickup in production for July. However, ongoing shutdowns of domestic auto plants have led to precariously low business volumes for parts suppliers, according to Chicago and St. Louis. Steel production remained depressed but has leveled off or increased somewhat, according to Cleveland, Chicago, and St. Louis. Similarly, Dallas observed that refineries increased their capacity utilization slightly over the past six weeks, but that overall industry conditions remain weak because of low demand for fuels. Various District reports noted cancellations of orders for commercial aircraft and continued weak demand for most types of equipment and machinery. Among the positive developments in manufacturing, several Districts mentioned pickups in technology sectors, or cited strong or rising sales of military products or pharmaceuticals.

Comments on the near-term outlook varied across Districts, but on the whole they appear consistent with a forecast of modest and uneven recovery in manufacturing output beginning during roughly the coming six to twelve months. New York, Philadelphia, and Atlanta indicated that manufacturers have a generally positive or improved near-term outlook. Dallas reported that high-tech manufacturers "are seeing some upside potential in their forecasts instead of just down-side risks," but that construction-related manufacturers "expect no improvement in the near term." Boston indicated that many respondents expect continued sub-par revenue numbers for the remainder of the year, but "look forward to slowly improving business in 2010," while Cleveland and Kansas City reported that manufacturing contacts expect little or no change in demand through the end of 2009.

Real Estate and Construction
Commercial real estate leasing markets were described as either "weak" or "slow" in all 12 Districts, although the severity of the downturn varied somewhat across Districts. While the office vacancy rate was up and rents were down in the Dallas District, market fundamentals there remained stronger than the national average. Market conditions in the New York District are significantly worse than one year ago, on average, but have been relatively stable in recent weeks and some parts of the District report improving fundamentals. Office vacancy rates continued to climb in the Atlanta, Boston, Kansas City, Minneapolis, Philadelphia, Richmond, and San Francisco Districts, as well as in Manhattan, resulting in sizable leasing concessions and/or declines in asking rents. Significant weakness in the retail leasing sector was reported for the Boston, Minneapolis, and New York Districts, and industrial vacancy increased in the Atlanta, Dallas, Minneapolis, and St. Louis Districts. Commercial real estate sales volume remained low, even "non-existent" in some Districts, reportedly due to a combination of tight credit and weak demand. Construction activity was limited and/or declining in most Districts, although exceptions were noted for health and institutional construction in the St. Louis District, public sector construction in the Chicago District, and the reconstruction of the World Trade Center in Manhattan. Tight credit was cited as an ongoing factor in the dearth of new construction activity. The commercial real estate outlook was mixed, both within and across Districts. Some contacts expect commercial real estate markets to improve within two quarters and others predict further market deterioration for the remainder of 2009 and possibly through late 2010.

Residential real estate markets in most Districts remained weak, but many reported signs of improvement. The Minneapolis and San Francisco Districts cited large increases in home sales compared with 2008 levels, and other Districts reported rising sales in some submarkets. Of the areas that continued to experience year--over--year sales declines, all except St Louis--where sales were down steeply-- also reported that the pace of decline was moderating. In general, the low end of the market, especially entry-level homes, continued to perform relatively well; contacts in the New York, Kansas City, and Dallas Districts attributed this relative strength, at least in part, to the first--time homebuyer tax credit. Condo sales were still far below year--before levels according to the Boston and New York reports. In general, home prices continued to decline in most markets, although a number of Districts saw possible signs of stabilization. The Boston, Atlanta, and Chicago Districts mentioned that the increasing number of foreclosure sales was exerting downward pressure on home prices. Residential construction reportedly remains quite slow, with the Chicago, Cleveland, and Kansas City Districts noting that financing is difficult.

Agriculture and Natural Resources
The farm sector reported better weather in much of the country in June and early July. As a result, the supply and condition of many crops have improved, and prices have fallen. In the Richmond and Atlanta Districts, generally favorable weather has facilitated the vegetable, small grain or fruit harvest--much of which is in good condition. Similarly, contacts in several Districts including Chicago, St. Louis, and Kansas City indicated that the size and condition of the corn, soybean and/or rice crops have improved and that farmers are now planning to harvest more acres than previously expected; thus, prices and profits are?and for the short term are expected to remain?down. By contrast, the production of wheat or barley is expected to fall well below strong 2008 levels in the St. Louis and Minneapolis Districts. In the Dallas District, where a drought continues, much of the corn, cotton, and other crops were described as "not worth harvesting," and producers are collecting insurance.

Livestock contacts in the Chicago, Kansas City, and Dallas Districts report that prices for dairy, hogs, and cattle have fallen by more than operating costs and some ranchers are liquidating herds. In the Chicago District, livestock operations have reportedly lost their cash cushion and have been unable to get financing; contacts in Dallas, where the ongoing drought has destroyed forage, also note concerns about ranchers' cash flow.

With oil prices up to $70 per barrel in the first half of 2009 but recently trending down, oil production was reportedly flat in June and early July in the Cleveland, Minneapolis, and Kansas City Districts and up slightly in Dallas and San Francisco. Contacts in Atlanta indicate that the number of rigs operating in the Gulf of Mexico had fallen by half year over year while in Dallas the number of working rigs was up slightly. Natural gas prices continue to fall, discouraging drilling in the Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts. Kansas City energy producers report financial strains and are cutting headcounts selectively, while contacts in Dallas observe much excess capacity and weak demand for energy services. In response to weak demand from the utilities, coal prices in the Cleveland District have fallen 50 percent since early 2009, and coal production, jobs and hours are down; capital spending has fallen to minimum maintenance levels. In Minneapolis, by contrast, new wind projects have been announced.

Banking and Financial Services
In most reporting Districts, overall lending activity was stable or weakened further for most loan categories. In contrast, Philadelphia reported a slight increase in business, consumer, and residential real estate lending. As businesses remained pessimistic and reluctant to borrow, demand for commercial and industrial loans continued to fall or stay weak in the New York, Richmond, St. Louis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts. Consumer loan demand decreased in New York, St. Louis, Kansas City, and San Francisco, stabilized at a low level in Chicago and Dallas, and was steady to up in Cleveland.

Residential real estate lending decreased in New York, Richmond, and St. Louis. Dallas reported steady but low outstanding mortgage volumes, while Kansas City noted that the rise in mortgage loans slowed. Refinancing activity fell dramatically in Richmond, decreased in New York and Cleveland, and maintained its pace in Dallas. Bankers in the New York District indicated no change in delinquency rates in all loan categories except residential mortgages, while Cleveland, Atlanta, and San Francisco reported rising delinquencies on loans linked to real estate.

Banks continued to tighten credit standards in the New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, Chicago, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts; and some have stepped up the requirements for the commercial real estate category, in particular, due to concern over declining loan quality. Meanwhile, Cleveland and Atlanta reported that higher credit standards remained in place, with no change expected in the near term. Credit quality deteriorated in Philadelphia, Cleveland, Kansas City, and San Francisco, while loan quality exceeded expectations in Chicago and remained steady in Richmond.

Employment, Wages, and Prices
All Districts indicated that labor markets remain slack, with most sectors either reducing jobs or holding them steady and aggregate employment continuing to decline, on net. However, Boston, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, and Minneapolis noted selective hiring, including attempts by some firms to take advantage of layoffs elsewhere to pick up experienced talent. Richmond, Chicago, St. Louis, and Dallas cited moderation in the pace of manufacturing employment decline since the last report, and New York noted some signs of labor market stabilization. But Atlanta reported further deterioration in labor market conditions and additional job cuts already planned for coming months.

The weakness of labor markets has virtually eliminated upward wage pressure, and wages and compensation are steady or falling in most Districts; however, Boston cited some manufacturing and business services firms raising pay selectively, and Minneapolis said wage increases were moderate. Boston, Cleveland, Richmond, Chicago, Dallas, and San Francisco cited a range of methods firms are using to limit compensation, including cutting or freezing wages or benefit contributions, deferral of future salary increases, trimming bonuses and travel allowances, reducing hours, temporary shutdowns, periodic furloughs, and unpaid vacations.

Most Districts reported that upward price pressures were minimal. Manufacturers in the Boston, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Minneapolis, Kansas City, and Dallas Districts indicated that most materials costs were flat or down; however, several Districts mentioned price increases for some metals, petrochemicals, and building materials. While the Boston, New York, and Kansas City reports say a few firms are making modest price increases stick, selling prices of most manufacturers and retailers were reportedly held down by competitive pressures. Services firms have increased discounting and/or cut fees, according to contacts in Boston, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Dallas, and San Francisco, while Richmond indicated price increases for services were mild.

미국의 경제상황, 경기동향을 살펴보는 지표가 되는 미국 FRB의 베이지북, Beige Book 2009년 6월호가, 현지 6월 10일 발표되었습니다.

베이지북은 각 지역 연방은행들이 수집한 미국 12개 지역의 경기동향을 요약한 자료로 미국 경제상황을 밝혀주는 핵심지표로 작용하고 있습니다. 베이지북은 1년에 8차례 발간됩니다.

이전 베이지북은 2009년 4월 15일(현지) 발간되었고, 다음 베이지북은 2009년 7월 29일 발간됩니다.

이들 12개 지역은 Boston, New Yor, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, San Francisco 입니다.

이번 베이지북의 내용을 보면, 경기는 여전히 약화, 침체상황에 머무르고 있는 가운데, 5/12개 지역에서는 침체 흐름이 완화되어가는 신호도 나타나고 있다고 보고하고 있습니다.  (*이하 거친 번역본 보기 클릭)

fullreport20090610.pdf

첨부 : 보고서 전문 파일

Summary

Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve District Banks indicate that economic conditions remained weak or deteriorated further during the period from mid-April through May. However, five of the Districts noted that the downward trend is showing signs of moderating. Further, contacts from several Districts said that their expectations have improved, though they do not see a substantial increase in economic activity through the end of the year.

Manufacturing activity declined or remained at a low level across most Districts. However, several Districts also reported that the outlook by manufacturers has improved somewhat. Demand for nonfinancial services contracted across Districts reporting on this segment. Retail spending remained soft as consumers focused on purchasing less expensive necessities and shied away from buying luxury goods. New car purchases remained depressed, with several Districts indicating that tight credit conditions were hampering auto sales. Travel and tourism activity also declined. A number of Districts reported an uptick in home sales, and many said that new home construction appeared to have stabilized at very low levels. Vacancy rates for commercial properties were rising in many parts of the country, while developers are finding financing for new commercial projects increasingly difficult to obtain. Most Districts reported that overall lending activity was stable or weak, but with mixed results across loan categories. Credit conditions remained stringent or tightened further. Energy activity continued to weaken across most Districts, and demand for natural resources remained depressed. Planting and growing conditions varied across Districts as did agricultural input costs.

Labor market conditions continued to be weak across the country, with wages generally remaining flat or falling. Two Districts also mentioned employers' plans to scale back employee benefit programs. The Atlanta, Chicago, and St. Louis Districts reported that some state and local governments faced hiring freezes or outright job cuts. While manufacturing employment levels remained low, some Districts saw signs that job losses may be moderating. With few exceptions, Districts reported that prices at all stages of production were generally flat or falling. The notable exception to the downward pressure on prices was the widely-reported increase in oil prices.

----------
부분별 내용

Manufacturing
Manufacturing declined or remained weak in most Districts. Boston, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Chicago, St. Louis, and Minneapolis reported declines in activity, while production remained at very low levels in the San Francisco District. Atlanta and Kansas City indicated that the pace of the decline in manufacturing had moderated or slowed. New York characterized the sector as having stabilized, while Dallas mentioned signs of stabilization. In contrast, Richmond reported a rise in both new orders and shipments.

Philadelphia reported that the primary metals, machinery, and electrical equipment industries remain especially weak, and Cleveland noted that steel shipments continue at depressed levels. Chicago commented that, apart from Asia, export demand was weak. Dallas reported that construction-related manufacturing and the petrochemicals markets remained weak, while San Francisco stated that activity in the wood products industry was depressed and that demand in the metal fabrication industry was extremely weak. Cleveland, Chicago, St. Louis and Dallas all noted weakness in automotive-related industries. In contrast, Boston, Dallas, and San Francisco indicated that high technology industries experienced some increase in activity, and Richmond noted strengthening across a number of industries. Several Districts also reported that the outlook of manufacturers has improved somewhat, though Boston, Cleveland and Kansas City mentioned that capital spending was weak.

Nonfinancial Services
Districts reporting on nonfinancial services indicated that for the most part activity continued to decline. Looking at some specific sectors, providers of health-care services spoke of job cuts and lower patient volumes. Activity continued to weaken or remain soft for providers of professional services such as accounting, architecture, business consulting, and legal services. In contrast, San Francisco reported a substantial pickup in real estate services such as title insurance due to an increase in home refinancing. Activity in IT services varied, with New England firms experiencing declining revenue and business, while demand for IT workers in Richmond and Chicago was reportedly on the rise. High-tech service sales in Kansas City increased moderately, and demand there is expected to strengthen.

Transportation contacts in most Districts say that shipping volume either remained at low levels or continued to decline. Contacts in the Cleveland District generally stated that while shipping volumes remain down across all market segments, the steep drop-off earlier this year has abated. Cargo and container trade in Richmond and Dallas remains at low levels, but contacts noted signs of improvement in import and export activity.

Consumer Spending and Tourism
Consumer spending remained soft as households focused on purchasing less expensive necessities. Reports from New York, Minneapolis, and Dallas indicated a modest rise in sales, while retail purchases in Boston, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Atlanta, Kansas City, and San Francisco were flat or mixed. The other Districts experienced declining sales. Several Districts reported that discounters have seen their sales increase, while purchases of luxury goods continued to weaken. Respondents from Boston, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Atlanta, St. Louis, Kansas City, and Dallas expect soft consumer sales to persist. Purchases of new cars remained depressed across most Districts. However, Chicago saw a small increase in auto sales, which respondents attributed to incentives and promotions. New York, Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Kansas City indicated that tight credit conditions hampered auto sales. Reports from Cleveland, Chicago, Kansas City, and San Francisco indicate that sales of used vehicles are rising.

Travel and tourism activity declined, and vacationers are tending to spend less. Business at Manhattan hotels and Broadway theaters, which had increased modestly in April, fell back in May. Bookings at resorts in the Richmond District are starting to pick up; however, they are weaker than a year ago. In the Atlanta District, promotions and discounting were said to have played a significant role in keeping theme park attendance and cruise bookings stable. Contacts from the San Francisco District said that pronounced declines in hotel occupancy rates, especially luxury hotels, were ongoing, while travel in some parts of the District remained down at double-digit rates from the previous year. However, a report from the Minneapolis District indicated that summer reservations at campgrounds and resorts are strong.

Real Estate and Construction
Although the residential real estate market remains weak, agents in the New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Chicago, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts reported an uptick in home sales. The reasons cited include seasonal factors, low interest rates, declining house prices, and tax credits for first-time buyers. Much of the sales increase was found in the lower-priced end of the market. New home construction appeared to have stabilized at very low levels in Philadelphia, Cleveland, Atlanta, Chicago, Minneapolis, Dallas, and San Francisco, although Kansas City reported an uptick in construction. Home inventories were trending down in Philadelphia, Richmond, Atlanta, Kansas City, and Dallas. However, Chicago reported that inventories remain elevated.

Commercial real estate markets continued to weaken across all Districts. Vacancy rates for commercial properties were rising in many regions of the Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, Minneapolis, Kansas City, and San Francisco Districts putting downward pressure on rents. Atlanta, Chicago, and St. Louis reported new construction projects being postponed or cancelled, and new construction in the New York, Philadelphia, and Minneapolis Districts dropped substantially. Eight Districts cited difficulty in obtaining financing as one of the primary reasons for delaying or stopping construction of new developments and for limiting sales of existing properties.

Banking and Finance
Most Districts reported that overall lending activity was stable or weak, but with mixed results across loan categories. Demand for commercial and industrial loans fell in New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, and San Francisco. Boston, Chicago, St. Louis, Kansas City, and Dallas singled out commercial real estate as experiencing weakening demand. Boston reported that commercial real estate transactions were increasingly scarce, and Dallas noted that loan renewals in this category required more borrower equity and smaller loan sizes than in the past. Atlanta and Chicago reported limited credit availability for vehicle dealers and other businesses tied to the auto industry. Demand for mortgage refinancing loans was mixed. New York and Cleveland reported strong demand for these loans, while Richmond noted a waning of residential refinancing demand due to rising interest rates. Richmond also reported an uptick in demand for purchase mortgage loans.

Most Districts said that credit conditions remained stringent or tightened further. Reports from Philadelphia and Cleveland expected that credit will remain tight in the near term. The credit quality of loan applicants and existing clients showed deterioration in Philadelphia, Richmond, Cleveland, and Dallas, although Richmond noted that the rate of deterioration has slowed. New York and Cleveland said that delinquencies had increased across numerous loan categories, particularly those tied to real estate. Cleveland and Kansas City reported increases in bank deposits, with the latter attributing the rise to uncertainty about financial markets.

Agriculture and Natural Resources
Planting and growing conditions varied across Districts, with favorable developments in Richmond, Kansas City, and Dallas. However, a drought hindered Oklahoma's wheat crop and livestock production in Southwest Texas. Above-normal rainfall delayed planting of major crops in the Atlanta, Chicago, and St. Louis Districts. Storms in the Minneapolis District destroyed fields and led to higher-than-normal deaths in calving. The Chicago and Kansas City Districts both said that lower cattle and hog prices along with higher feed costs have worsened the income prospect for livestock producers. Input costs in San Francisco, though, have stayed at moderate levels, and sales have continued at a solid pace for most types of agricultural output.

Energy activity continued to weaken across most Districts, and demand for natural resources remained depressed. Coal production and prices fell substantially in the Cleveland District. The number of drilling rigs operating in the Kansas City District is sixty percent below its peak last fall, and working rigs in Texas have fallen fifteen percent over the past six weeks as global demand for oil remains low. However, one production facility in the Gulf of Mexico just opened in May and is expected to make a major contribution to oil and natural gas output once it reaches full production. Wind energy projects expanded in the Kansas City and Minneapolis Districts.

Employment and Wages
Labor market conditions continued to be weak across the country, with wages generally remaining flat or falling. Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco reported that businesses were cutting or freezing wages, and Boston cited wage freezes in the retail sector. The Chicago District reported that the downward pressure on wages was abating somewhat there, as firms turned instead to cutting hours or jobs outright to contain labor costs. Firms in the Atlanta and Dallas Districts also reported having to cut hours to reduce costs. In addition, the Boston and San Francisco Districts also mentioned employers' plans to scale back employee benefit programs.

In the service sector, the Boston and Cleveland Districts reported relatively stable retail employment, while the Richmond District reported continuing reductions. The Richmond, Chicago, Minneapolis, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts noted that firms providing professional services, such as accounting, consulting, and legal services, continued to report staff reductions, while the Boston and New York Districts reported weak demand for financial services workers, with ongoing layoffs at large financial firms. The Boston and Richmond Districts also reported reductions in information technology jobs. The Atlanta, Chicago, and St. Louis Districts reported that some state and local governments faced hiring freezes or outright job cuts.

In manufacturing, while employment levels remained low, several Districts saw signs that job losses may be moderating. The New York, Richmond, Atlanta, and Kansas City Districts all reported less severe employment reductions in recent weeks, with some optimism that manufacturing employment levels may soon stabilize. This, however, was balanced by reports of ongoing manufacturing employment losses in the Boston, Cleveland, Chicago, and St. Louis Districts.

Staffing services firms reported some modest signs of recovery, with the Boston, Atlanta, Chicago, and Dallas Districts all reporting some stabilization in activity or a slight improvement in employment trends. The Cleveland and Richmond Districts, however, continued to report that activity among staffing services firms was weak.

Prices
With few exceptions, the District Banks reported that prices at all stages of production were generally flat or falling. Manufacturers in Philadelphia, Cleveland, Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas, and San Francisco said that overall input prices were stable or declining, although in Kansas City those declines were said to be moderating. In contrast, Richmond noted that prices of raw materials had increased at a quicker pace. The notable exception to the downward pressure on input prices was oil. Increases in oil prices were widely reported. However, prices for other energy commodities, like coal and natural gas, remained relatively low. Other exceptions to the prevailing price trend included agricultural items. The Atlanta and Kansas City Districts reported some increases in agricultural prices, with the latter noting that these higher prices were partly driven by global weather concerns. The Chicago and Kansas City Districts also reported higher prices for livestock feed. In construction, the Philadelphia, Kansas City, and Minneapolis Districts reported higher prices for some building supplies, perhaps related to increase in petroleum prices.

Reports from a number of Districts indicated that pricing at retail remains very soft. The Cleveland and Dallas Districts indicated that retail prices were stable, San Francisco said that they were held down by discounting, and Philadelphia noted that steady input costs were holding retail prices in check. In Kansas City, retail prices were declining and expected to soften further. Richmond's retail prices continued to rise, albeit more slowly than in the past.


* 베이지북(Beige Book)
Commonly known as the Beige Book, this report is published eight times per year. Each Federal Reserve Bank gathers anecdotal information on current economic conditions in its District through reports from Bank and Branch directors and interviews with key business contacts, economists, market experts, and other sources. The Beige Book summarizes this information by District and sector. An overall summary of the twelve district reports is prepared by a designated Federal Reserve Bank on a rotating basis.

2009년4월9일 금융통화위원회는 다음 통화정책방향 결정 시까지 한국은행 기준금리를 현 수준(2.00%)에서 유지하여 통화정책을 운용하기로 하였음

통화정책방향

국문보도자료(0904).hwp

국문보도자료(0904).pdf

기자간담회자료(0904).hwp

기자간담회자료(0904).pdf

press0904_f.pdf

press0904_f.hwp

□ 2009년 3월 12일 금융통화위원회는 다음 통화정책방향 결정시까지 한국은행 기준금리를 현 수준(2.00%)에서 유지하여 통화정책을 운용하기로 하였음

(붙임 참조)

통화정책방향

□ 금융통화위원회는 다음 통화정책방향 결정시까지 한국은행 기준금리를 현 수준(2.00%)에서 유지하여 통화정책을 운용하기로 하였음

□최근 국내 경기는 내수와 수출 모두 감소세를 지속하면서 계속 위축되고 있으며 세계경제 침체 심화, 국제금융시장 불안 등으로 인해 향후 성장의 하향위험도 매우 큰 것으로 판단됨

□ 소비자물가는 환율 상승의 영향 등으로 오름세가 확대되었으나 경기부진에 따른 수요압력 약화가 상승세를 둔화시키는 요인으로 계속 작용할 것으로 보임. 부동산시장에서는 거래 위축 및 가격 하락 현상이 지속되고 있음

□금융시장에서는 환율, 주가 등 가격변수가 불안정한 움직임을 나타내었으나 금융기관의 대출태도가 다소 완화되면서 가계 및 중소기업 대출이 증가하였음

□ 앞으로 통화정책은 경기의 과도한 위축을 방지하고 금융시장 안정을 도모하는 데 주안점을 두고 운용해 나갈 것임

기자간담회자료200903.hwp

기자간담회자료200903.pdf

통화정책방향200903.hwp

통화정책방향200903.pdf

□ 소비자물가는 고환율, 국제휘발유 가격 상승 등으로 오름세가 확대되었고 
    경상수지는 1월 들어 4개월만에 적자로 반전

□ 향후 우리 경제는 내외수요 부진으로 침체국면을 지속할 전망

자세한 내용은 <붙 임> 참조

press0903_f.hwp

press0903_f.pdf

기자간담회자료20090212.hwp

기자간담회자료20090212.pdf

통화정책방향20090212.hwp

통화정책방향20090212.pdf

 □  최근 국내경기는 수요·생산·고용 등 경제 전부문에 걸쳐 빠르게 위축되는 모습

  ㅇ 내수부진이 심화되는 가운데 수출도 해외수요의 급격한 위축 등으로 큰 폭의 감소세

  ㅇ 생산면에서도 제조업의 감산이 크게 확대되고 서비스업도 부진이 심화

 □  향후 우리 경제는 세계경제 성장세의 급락 및 내수침체 등으로 성장의 하방리스크가 클 것으로 전망

    자세한 내용은 <붙 임> 참조

press0902_f.hwp

press0902_f.pdf

통화정책방향

□ 금융통화위원회는 다음 통화정책방향 결정시까지 한국은행 기준금리를 현재의 2.50%에서 2.00%로 하향조정하여 통화정책을 운용하기로 하였음

□ 최근 국내 경기는 소비, 투자 등 내수가 한층 더 위축되고 수출이 급격히 감소하면서 하강속도가 빨라지고 있으며 세계경제 침체 심화 및 신용경색 지속 가능성 등으로 향후 성장의 하향위험도 매우 큰 것으로 판단됨

□ 소비자물가는 국제유가의 하향 안정과 경기부진의 영향으로 오름세가 계속 둔화되고 있으며 앞으로도 이러한 추세가 이어질 것으로 보임. 부동산시장에서는 거래 위축 및 가격 하락 현상이 지속되고 있음

□ 금융시장에서는 환율, 주가 등 가격변수가 대체로 안정적인 움직임을 보였으나 신용위험을 우려한 금융기관의 보수적 자금운용으로 기업이 자금조달에 여전히 어려움을 겪고 있음

□ 앞으로 통화정책은 유동성 상황을 개선하고 경기의 과도한 위축을 방지하는 데 주안점을 두고 운용해 나갈 것임

출처 : 한국은행, bok.or.kr

* 기준금리 추가인하의 종합적 배경자료는, http://assetguide.tistory.com/88  참조