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'factory orders'에 해당되는 글 3건




  1. 2009.04.26 미국 경제지표 주간 발표 일정 _09.04.27~05.01
  2. 2009.04.06 미국 공장재주문, Factory Orders 1.8% 상승 (m/m) _09.04.02
  3. 2009.04.06 미국증시 주간전망 _09.04.06_04.10 _특별한 경기지표 없고, 다우존스 8,000p 회복

다음은 미국 경제지표 주간 발표 일정 입니다. (2009.04.27~05.01)
다음주에는 2009년 1분기 GDP 전망치가 발표되며, FOMC의 금리정책과 전망이 공개될 예정입니다. 
개인소비, 개인소득 지표는 둔화세에서 횡보할 것으로 전망되고 있고, 
소비자신뢰, 소비자 심리지표는 강보합세 정도로 예측하고 있습니다. 
공장재주문의 경우, 저번주의 주요 지표들과 비슷하게 2009년 초반 한 때 약하게 지표상으로 기술적으로 개선되었으나,
다시 재악화가 예측되고 있습니다.  

물가지표들의 경우 큰 변화는 없을 것으로 보이지만, 시간경과에 따라 자연스런 상승 흐름을 나타날 수 있기 때문에,
FOMC의 물가 관련 전망이나 스탠스를 봐야 겠습니다.

여러 지표 흐름을 볼 때 경기악화의 흐름은 둔화세, 횡보세를 보이고 있으나, 그렇다고 본격적인 회복세를 보이고 있는 것도 아님로 시간적으로 충분한 경과를 여유있게 기다려 보는 것이 좋아보입니다.

 
Date April 27 - May 1 Actual Forecast Previous
Sun IMF Meetings      
26-Apr
Mon  
27-Apr
Tue S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y   -18.90% -19.00%
28-Apr CB Consumer Confidence   29.6 26
  Richmond Manufacturing Index   -18 -20
Wed Advance GDP q/q   -4.90%
-6.30%
29-Apr
  Advance GDP Price Index q/q   1.80%
0.50%
 
  Crude Oil Inventories     3.9M
  FOMC Statement      
  Federal Funds Rate   <0.25% <0.25%
Thu Unemployment Claims   640K 640K
30-Apr Core PCE Price Index m/m   0.10% 0.20%
  Employment Cost Index q/q   0.50% 0.50%
  Personal Spending m/m   -0.10% 0.20%
  Personal Income m/m   -0.20% -0.20%
  Chicago PMI   34.3 31.4
  Natural Gas Storage     46B
Fri Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment   61.7 61.9
01-May Revised UoM Inflation Expectations     3.00%
  ISM Manufacturing PMI   38 36.3
  Factory Orders m/m   -0.70% 1.80%
  ISM Manufacturing Prices   33.5 31
  Total Vehicle Sales   9.7M 9.9M

(출처: forexfactory.com)





맞춤검색

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미국 공장재주문, Factory Orders가 월간으로(m/m) 1.8% 상승하였습니다.
내구재주문에 이어 월간 소폭의 개선세가 진행되고 있기 때문에, 있는 그대로 받아들이면 되겠습니다.




M3

HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE PRELIMINARY REPORT ON MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS

February 2009 --------------- Released 10:00 A.M. EDT April 2, 2009
(M3-2(09)-02)
Note: All figures in text are in seasonally adjusted current dollars
For Data - (301) 763-4673
For Questions - Chris Savage or Jessica Young
(301) 763-4832


Summary

New orders for manufactured goods in February, up following six consecutive monthly decreases, increased $6.1 billion or 1.8 percent to $352.2 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 3.5 percent January decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.6 percent. Shipments, down seven consecutive months, decreased $0.4 billion or 0.1 percent to $365.9 billion. This was the longest streak of consecutive monthly decreases since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 2.6 percent January decrease. Unfilled orders, down five consecutive months, decreased $10.7 billion or 1.4 percent to $773.2 billion. This was the longest streak of consecutive monthly decreases since September 2002-January 2003. This followed a 2.0 percent January decrease. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 5.98, down from 6.07 in January. Inventories, down six consecutive months, decreased $6.2 billion or 1.2 percent to $529.7 billion. This also was the longest streak of consecutive monthly decreases since March 2003-January 2004 and followed a 1.1 percent January decrease. The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.45, down from 1.46 in January.

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in February, up following six consecutive monthly decreases, increased $5.6 billion or 3.5 percent to $164.7 billion, revised from the previously published 3.4 percent increase. This followed a 7.8 percent January decrease.

New orders for manufactured nondurable goods increased $0.5 billion or 0.3 percent to $187.4 billion.

Shipments

Shipments of manufactured durable goods in February, down seven consecutive months, decreased $0.9 billion or 0.5 percent to $178.5 billion, unchanged from the previously published decrease. This also was the longest streak of consecutive monthly decreases since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 5.5 percent January decrease.

Shipments of manufactured nondurable goods, up two consecutive months, increased $0.5 billion or 0.3 percent to $187.4 billion. This followed a 0.5 percent January increase. This increase was due to chemical products, which increased $1.1 billion or 2.2 percent to $51.4 billion.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in February, down five consecutive months, decreased $10.7 billion or 1.4 percent to $773.2 billion, revised from the previously published 1.3 percent decrease. This followed a 2.0 percent January decrease.

Inventories

Inventories of manufactured durable goods in February, down two consecutive months, decreased $3.6 billion or 1.1 percent to $336.1 billion, revised from the previously published 0.9 percent decrease. This followed a 1.1 percent January decrease.

Inventories of manufactured nondurable goods, down six consecutive months, decreased $2.6 billion or 1.3 percent to $193.5 billion. This followed a 1.2 percent January decrease. Petroleum and coal, led the decrease, down $1.0 billion or 3.9 percent to $23.7 billion. This also was the sixth consecutive monthly decrease.

By stage of fabrication, February materials and supplies decreased 0.6 percent in durable goods and 1.7 percent in nondurable goods. Work in process decreased 1.1 percent in durable goods and 1.3 percent in nondurable goods. Finished goods decreased 1.6 percent in durable goods and 1.0 percent in nondurable goods.


출처 : http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/



맞춤검색

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이번주부터는 특별한 상황이 없는 한 짧게 브리핑하겠습니다.

다우존스는 8,000p에 올라서있습니다.
_ 연초 9,000p --> 6,500p 코스에서보면 여전히 연봉은 음봉 상태이나, 약 1,500p를 저점권에서 회복한 것이고,
   연봉이 양봉이 형성된다면 위로 여백은 여전히 큽니다.

_ 2월말에서 3월초에 추가경계감을 가졌으나, 추가 하락하지 않고 회복세를 보이므로 있는 그대로 받아들이면 되겠습니다.


저번주 경기지표를 보면 공장재주문(Factory Orders)이 월간 1.8% 상승으로 양전환(+) 하였고, 내구재주문에 이어 흐름이 양호합니다.

또한, G20 회의에 대한 시장반응도 괜찮기 때문에, 있는 그대로 접근하면 되겠습니다.


금주는 특별한 경기지표는 없는 가운데, 상승 여력이 크게 작용하지 않더라도, 하락 가능성은 제한적인 한 주로 생각됩니다.


코스피(KOSPI)의 경우 2008년말 전망한 2009년 1분기 흐름에 따라, 현재 약 1,300p 부근에 접근해 있는 상황으로,
2월말~3월초까지 1,200p대에서 990p대까지 재차 하락한 것이 다소 의외였고 이에 대한 추가 경계를 하기는 했으나,
이후로 급속히 회복되었기 때문에, 있는 그대로 보면 되겠습니다.

경기가 안좋아도, 시간이 갈수록 매수 우위의 환경이 조성될 수 있기 때문에,
1분기말에 회복된 지수흐름을 고려하여,

2분기에는 1분기보다는 지수 저점을 올려야할 가능성이 있습니다.



공장재주문(Factory Orders) 월간변화율


다우존스 지수 흐름



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