US Market Weekly Morning Brief _09.02.09~02.13

[ 오바마 경제정책 _ 중산층, 노동계층의 광범위한 대중적 복원 ]
 

미국인이여, 이제 일하자. Amercans Do Work!

오바마 이후의 향후 8년 미국에 대한 전망 

 금융에 대한 과도한 의존과 거품에서 비롯된 일하지 않는 미국에서

 => 중산층과 노동계층의 복원과 실질소비여력 증진을 통해 일하는 미국, 건강한 미국의 복원을

     추구하는 8년이 될 것으로 전망

오바마 이후의 미국 _ 중산층 복원 및 소비여력 내실화를 위한, 일하는 미국, The Working America의 추구

적극적인 감세 정책으로 중산층 복원을 지향하고 있는 점이 특징.

일자리 창출과 전국적 Infrastructure 사업을 통해, 노동계층에 대한 적극적인 지지와 복원의사를 보여주고 있음.

따라서, 근로를 통한 미국민의 소비여력 내실화에 긍정적으로 작용할 것으로 볼 수 있음.

출처 : http://www.barackobama.com/issues/economy/index.php

다음은 머니투데이가 외신을 종합하여 보도한 보도내용입니다.


[머니투데이 뉴욕=김준형 특파원][[해설]중산층구제, 금융위기 진정, 구제책 점검, 성장동력 확보]

버락 오바마 미국 대통령 당선인의 경제정책 방향이 윤곽을 드러냈다.

오바마 당선인은 당선후 사흘만인 7일(현지시간) 긴급 경제 참모 회의를 소집, 경제현안을 진단하고, 향후 중점적으로 추진할 경제정책과제를 채택했다.

오바마 당선인은 회동직후 기자회견을 통해 이같은 정책과제를 네가지로 정리해 발표했다. 향후 오바마 정부의 경제정책 우선순위와 일부 구체적인 정책수단을 처음으로 제시했다는 점에서 주목된다.

◇1. 중산층 구제

오바마 당선인은 '중산층 구제'를 최우선 정책과제로 제시했다.

미국국내 총생산(GDP)의 3분의 2를 지탱하고 있는 소비가 급속히 위축돼 경기회복 전망을 어둡게 하고 있는 것은 전통적인 중산계층이 급속히 와해되고 있다는 위기감에 따른 것이다.

특히 실업이 급속도로 증가, 소비잠재력을 잠식하고 있는 점이 이같은 위기감을 가속화시키고 있다. 오바마 당선인이 기자회견문 서두에 이날 발표된 10월 고용지표를 인용한 것도 이때문이다. 미국 노동부에 따르면 10월 실업률은 6.5%를 기록해 전월 대비 0.4%p 증가했다. 이는 1994년 이후 14년래 최고 수준이다. 시장전망치인 6.3%보다도 0.2%p 높게 나타났다.

오바마 당선인은 "월급이 줄어들고 평생의 저축이 날아가고 있는 것을 목격하고 있는 미국 가정에 도움을 주고, 일자리를 창출해야 한다"며 중산층 구제책의 목표를 제시했다. 구체적인 정책수단으로는 실업보험 확대와 경기부양책을 거론했다.

◇2. 금융위기 진정

오바마 당선인은 사상 유례없는 글로벌 금융위기의 충격을 진정시킬 것을 다짐했다. 그는 월가에서 시작된 금융위기가 중소기업으로 확산돼 판매부진과 고용감축으로 이어지고 있으며, 주정부 등 지자체들이 예산을 삭감하고 세금을 인상해야 하는 상황에 처해 있다는 점을 강조했다.

그러나 "금융위기는 갈수록 글로벌화하고 있다"며 이같은 금융위기 충격 차단이 미국 정부만으로는 이뤄질수 없다는 점을 강조했다.

특히 금융위기의 실물부문 확산 차단을 위해 자동차 산업에 대한 지원을 보다 적극적으로 시행할 것임을 밝혔다.

이날 제네럴 모터스(GM)이 3분기 25억달러의 손실을 입고, 현금 유동성이 고갈될 위기에 처해있다고 발표한 것과 궤를 같이 한다.

회견문의 상당부분을 자동차 산업에 할애한 오바마 후보는 '자동차 산업은 미 제조업의 근간'이라며 각별한 관심을 표명했다.

이미 입법화된 자동차산업 지원법 테두리 내에서 최대한 지원을 아끼지 않을 것임은 물론, "정권 인수팀에 추가적인 입법(additional legistration)이 필요한지 검토를 요청했다"고 밝혔다.

자동차 '빅3'의 구제금융요청에 부정적인 입장을 보여온 부시 행정부와 달리 오바마 정부는 자동차산업에 대한 적극적인 지원에 나설 것임을 시사한 것이다.

◇3. 금융구제책 재점검

오바마 당선인 헨리 폴슨 재무장관 주도로 추진돼 온 부시 행정부의 금융구제 정책에 대해서는 기본적으로 찬성입장을 밝혀왔다.

오바마 당선인은 그러나 이날 회견에서 구제금융정책의 세부 내용에서는 '도덕적 해이'등의 부작용에 대한 경계를 드러냈다.

그는 현정부의 금융정책이 금융시장 안정이라는 목표를 달성하면서 동시에 "납세자를 보호하고, 주택보유자를 지원하며, 공공자금 투입 회사 경영진에 대한 과도한 보수를 제한해야 한다"고 지적했다. 이를 위해 부시 행정부의 금융정책을 재검토할 것이라고 밝혔다.

무엇보다 금융회사에 대한 막대한 공적자금 투입과정에서 '혈세'가 '눈먼 돈'처럼 마구 사용되는 것을 막겠다는 의지이다. '긴급 경제안정법'이 금융기관 경영진에 대한 과도한 보수를 제한하는 조항을 담고는 있지만 실질적인 효력이 떨어지는데다 여전히 월가에서는 막대한 보너스가 지급되고 있는 등 '도덕적 해이'에 대한 비판 여론이 비등하고 있는 상태이다.

그는 이어 주택보유자들이 집을 잃지 않도록 재무부와 연방예금보험공사가 긴밀히 협조할 것을 요구했다.

◇4. 장기 성장동력 확보

오바마 당선인은 마지막으로 사상 최악의 금융위기와 경기침체에 대한 대응 차원을 넘어 중산층을 강화하고 장기적인 경제 성장 동력을 확보하기 위한 정책도 조속히 마련할 것임을 천명했다.

위기에 대한 '수동적' 대응에만 머물지 않고, 유세과정에서 오바마 후보가 제시한 정책비전들을 구체화하겠다는 것이다.

이같은 비전을 구체화할수 있는 분야로 오바마 후보는 청정에너지, 보건의료, 교육, 중산층 세금감면 등 네가지를 예시했다.

정권인수팀은 향후 수주간 이같은 당면 과제들에 대한 구체적인 정책을 개발할 예정이다. 오바마 당선인은 "이문제들에 대한 아이디어들을 논의하기 위해 정권인수팀 경제 자문위원회를 수주내로 다시 소집할 것"이라고 설명했다.

-2008.11.08-

오바마 경제정책 공약(promise)

Plan to Strengthen the Economy (*거친 한글 번역 클릭)

The Problem

Wages are Stagnant as Prices Rise: While wages remain flat, the costs of basic necessities are increasing. The cost of in-state college tuition has grown 35 percent over the past five years. Health care costs have risen four times faster than wages over the past six years. And the personal savings rate is now the lowest it's been since the Great Depression.

Tax Cuts for Wealthy Instead of Middle Class: The Bush tax cuts give those who earn over $1 million dollars a tax cut nearly 160 times greater than that received by middle-income Americans. At the same time, this administration has refused to tackle health care, education and housing in a manner that benefits the middle class.

Barack Obama and Joe Biden's Plan

Jumpstart the Economy

• Enact a Windfall Profits Tax to Provide a $1,000 Emergency Energy Rebate to American Families:Barack Obama and Joe Biden will enact a windfall profits tax on excessive oil company profits to give American families an immediate $1,000 emergency energy rebate to help families pay rising bills. This relief would be a down payment on the Obama-Biden long-term plan to provide middle-class families with at least $1,000 per year in permanent tax relief.
• Provide $50 billion to Jumpstart the Economy and Prevent 1 Million Americans from Losing Their Jobs: This relief would include a $25 billion State Growth Fund to prevent state and local cuts in health, education, housing, and heating assistance or counterproductive increases in property taxes, tolls or fees. The Obama-Biden relief plan will also include $25 billion in a Jobs and Growth Fund to prevent cutbacks in road and bridge maintenance and fund school re­pair - all to save more than 1 million jobs in danger of being cut.

Provide Middle Class Americans Tax Relief

Obama and Biden will cut income taxes by $1,000 for working families to offset the payroll tax they pay.

• Provide a Tax Cut for Working Families: Obama and Biden will restore fairness to the tax code and provide 150 million workers the tax relief they need. Obama and Biden will create a new "Making Work Pay" tax credit of up to $500 per person, or $1,000 per working family. The "Making Work Pay" tax credit will completely eliminate income taxes for 10 million Americans.
• Eliminate Income Taxes for Seniors Making Less than $50,000: Barack Obama will eliminate all income taxation of seniors making less than $50,000 per year. This proposal will eliminate income taxes for 7 million seniors and provide these seniors with an average savings of $1,400 each year. Under the Obama-Biden plan, 27 million American seniors will also not need to file an income tax return.
• Simplify Tax Filings for Middle Class Americans: Obama and Biden will dramatically simplify tax filings so that millions of Americans will be able to do their taxes in less than five minutes. Obama and Biden will ensure that the IRS uses the information it already gets from banks and employers to give taxpayers the option of pre-filled tax forms to verify, sign and return. Experts estimate that the Obama-Biden proposal will save Americans up to 200 million total hours of work and aggravation and up to $2 billion in tax preparer fees.

Trade

Obama and Biden believe that trade with foreign nations should strengthen the American economy and create more American jobs. He will stand firm against agreements that undermine our economic security.

• Fight for Fair Trade: Obama and Biden will fight for a trade policy that opens up foreign markets to support good American jobs. They will use trade agreements to spread good labor and environmental standards around the world and stand firm against agreements like the Central American Free Trade Agreement that fail to live up to those important benchmarks. Obama and Biden will also pressure the World Trade Organization to enforce trade agreements and stop countries from continuing unfair government subsidies to foreign exporters and nontariff barriers on U.S. exports.
• Amend the North American Free Trade Agreement: Obama and Biden believe that NAFTA and its potential were oversold to the American people. They will work with the leaders of Canada and Mexico to fix NAFTA so that it works for American workers.
• Improve Transition Assistance: To help all workers adapt to a rapidly changing economy, Obama and Biden will update the existing system of Trade Adjustment Assistance by extending it to service industries, creating flexible education accounts to help workers retrain, and providing retraining assistance for workers in sectors of the economy vulnerable to dislocation before they lose their jobs.
• End Tax Breaks for Companies that Send Jobs Overseas: Barack Obama and Joe Biden believe that companies should not get billions of dollars in tax deductions for moving their operations overseas. Obama and Biden will also fight to ensure that public contracts are awarded to companies that are committed to American workers.
• Reward Companies that Support American Workers: Barack Obama introduced the Patriot Employer Act of 2007 with Senators Richard Durbin (D-IL) and Sherrod Brown (D-OH) to reward companies that create good jobs with good benefits for American workers. The legislation would provide a tax credit to companies that maintain or increase the number of full-time workers in America relative to those outside the US; maintain their corporate headquarters in America if it has ever been in America; pay decent wages; prepare workers for retirement; provide health insurance; and support employees who serve in the military.

Invest in the Manufacturing Sector and Create 5 Million New Green Jobs

• Invest in our Next Generation Innovators and Job Creators: Obama and Biden will create an Advanced Manufacturing Fund to identify and invest in the most compelling advanced manufacturing strategies. The Fund will have a peer-review selection and award process based on the Michigan 21st Century Jobs Fund, a state-level initiative that has awarded over $125 million to Michigan businesses with the most innovative proposals to create new products and new jobs in the state.
• Double Funding for the Manufacturing Extension Partnership: The Manufacturing Extension Partnership (MEP) works with manufacturers across the country to improve efficiency, implement new technology and strengthen company growth. This highly-successful program has engaged in more than 350,000 projects across the country and in 2006 alone, helped create and protect over 50,000 jobs. But despite this success, funding for MEP has been slashed by the Bush administration. Barack Obama and Joe Biden will double funding for the MEP so its training centers can continue to bolster the competitiveness of U.S. manufacturers.
• Invest In A Clean Energy Economy And Create 5 Million New Green Jobs: Obama and Biden will invest $150 billion over 10 years to advance the next generation of biofuels and fuel infrastructure, accelerate the commercialization of plug-in hybrids, promote development of commercial scale renewable energy, invest in low emissions coal plants, and begin transition to a new digital electricity grid. The plan will also invest in America's highly-skilled manufacturing workforce and manufacturing centers to ensure that American workers have the skills and tools they need to pioneer the first wave of green technologies that will be in high demand throughout the world.
• Create New Job Training Programs for Clean Technologies: The Obama-Biden plan will increase funding for federal workforce training programs and direct these programs to incorporate green technologies training, such as advanced manufacturing and weatherization training, into their efforts to help Americans find and retain stable, high-paying jobs. Obama and Biden will also create an energy-focused youth jobs program to invest in disconnected and disadvantaged youth.
• Boost the Renewable Energy Sector and Create New Jobs: The Obama-Biden plan will create new federal policies, and expand existing ones, that have been proven to create new American jobs. Obama and Biden will create a federal Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) that will require 25 percent of American electricity be derived from renewable sources by 2025, which has the potential to create hundreds of thousands of new jobs on its own. Obama and Biden will also extend the Production Tax Credit, a credit used successfully by American farmers and investors to increase renewable energy production and create new local jobs.

New Jobs Through National Infrastructure Investment

Barack Obama and Joe Biden believe that it is critically important for the United States to rebuild its national transportation infrastructure – its highways, bridges, roads, ports, air, and train systems – to strengthen user safety, bolster our long-term competitiveness and ensure our economy continues to grow.

• Create a National Infrastructure Reinvestment Bank: Barack Obama and Joe Biden will address the infrastructure challenge by creating a National Infrastructure Reinvestment Bank to expand and enhance, not supplant, existing federal transportation investments. This independent entity will be directed to invest in our nation’s most challenging transportation infrastructure needs. The Bank will receive an infusion of federal money, $60 billion over 10 years, to provide financing to transportation infrastructure projects across the nation. These projects will create up to two million new direct and indirect jobs and stimulate approximately $35 billion per year in new economic activity.

Technology, Innovation and Creating Jobs

Barack Obama and Joe Biden will increase federal support for research, technology and innovation for companies and universities so that American families can lead the world in creating new advanced jobs and products.

• Invest in the Sciences: Barack Obama and Joe Biden support doubling federal funding for basic research and changing the posture of our federal government from being one of the most anti-science administrations in American history to one that embraces science and technology. This will foster home-grown innovation, help ensure the competitiveness of US technology-based businesses, and ensure that 21st century jobs can and will grow in America.
• Make the Research and Development Tax Credit Permanent: Barack Obama and Joe Biden want investments in a skilled research and development workforce and technology infrastructure to be supported here in America so that American workers and communities will benefit. Obama and Biden want to make the Research and Development tax credit permanent so that firms can rely on it when making decisions to invest in domestic R&D over multi-year timeframes.
• Deploy Next-Generation Broadband: Barack Obama and Joe Biden believe we can get broadband to every community in America through a combination of reform of the Universal Service Fund, better use of the nation's wireless spectrum, promotion of next-generation facilities, technologies and applications, and new tax and loan incentives.

Support Small Business

• Provide Tax Relief for Small Businesses and Start Up Companies: Barack Obama and Joe Biden will eliminate all capital gains taxes on start-up and small businesses to encourage innovation and job creation. Obama and Biden will also support small business owners by providing a $500 “Making Work Pay” tax credit to almost every worker in America. Self-employed small business owners pay both the employee and the employer side of the payroll tax, and this measure will reduce the burdens of this double taxation.
• Create a National Network of Public-Private Business Incubators: Barack Obama and Joe Biden will support entrepreneurship and spur job growth by creating a national network of public-private business incubators. Business incubators facilitate the critical work of entrepreneurs in creating start-up companies. Obama and Biden will invest $250 million per year to increase the number and size of incubators in disadvantaged communities throughout the country.

Labor

Obama and Biden will strengthen the ability of workers to organize unions. He will fight for passage of the Employee Free Choice Act. Obama and Biden will ensure that his labor appointees support workers' rights and will work to ban the permanent replacement of striking workers. Obama and Biden will also increase the minimum wage and index it to inflation to ensure it rises every year.

• Ensure Freedom to Unionize: Obama and Biden believe that workers should have the freedom to choose whether to join a union without harassment or intimidation from their employers. Obama cosponsored and is strong advocate for the Employee Free Choice Act, a bipartisan effort to assure that workers can exercise their right to organize. He will continue to fight for EFCA's passage and sign it into law.
• Fight Attacks on Workers' Right to Organize: Obama has fought the Bush National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) efforts to strip workers of their right to organize. He is a cosponsor of legislation to overturn the NLRB's "Kentucky River" decisions classifying hundreds of thousands of nurses, construction, and professional workers as "supervisors" who are not protected by federal labor laws.
• Protect Striking Workers: Obama and Biden support the right of workers to bargain collectively and strike if necessary. They will work to ban the permanent replacement of striking workers, so workers can stand up for themselves without worrying about losing their livelihoods.
• Raise the Minimum Wage: Barack Obama and Joe Biden will raise the minimum wage, index it to inflation and increase the Earned Income Tax Credit to make sure that full-time workers earn a living wage that allows them to raise their families and pay for basic needs.

Protect Homeownership and Crack Down on Mortgage Fraud

Obama and Biden will crack down on fraudulent brokers and lenders. They will also make sure homebuyers have honest and complete information about their mortgage options, and they will give a tax credit to all middle-class homeowners.

• Create a Universal Mortgage Credit: Obama and Biden will create a 10 percent universal mortgage credit to provide homeowners who do not itemize tax relief. This credit will provide an average of $500 to 10 million homeowners, the majority of whom earn less than $50,000 per year.
• Ensure More Accountability in the Subprime Mortgage Industry: Obama has been closely monitoring the subprime mortgage situation for years, and introduced comprehensive legislation over a year ago to fight mortgage fraud and protect consumers against abusive lending practices. Obama's STOP FRAUD Act provides the first federal definition of mortgage fraud, increases funding for federal and state law enforcement programs, creates new criminal penalties for mortgage professionals found guilty of fraud, and requires industry insiders to report suspicious activity.
• Mandate Accurate Loan Disclosure: Obama and Biden will create a Homeowner Obligation Made Explicit (HOME) score, which will provide potential borrowers with a simplified, standardized borrower metric (similar to APR) for home mortgages. The HOME score will allow individuals to easily compare various mortgage products and understand the full cost of the loan.
• Close Bankruptcy Loophole for Mortgage Companies: Obama and Biden will work to eliminate the provision that prevents bankruptcy courts from modifying an individual's mortgage payments. They believe that the subprime mortgage industry, which has engaged in dangerous and sometimes unscrupulous business practices, should not be shielded by outdated federal law.

Address Predatory Credit Card Practices

Obama and Biden will establish a five-star rating system so that every consumer knows the risk involved in every credit card. They also will establish a Credit Card Bill of Rights to stop credit card companies from exploiting consumers with unfair practices.

• Create a Credit Card Rating System to Improve Disclosure: Obama and Biden will create a credit card rating system, modeled on five-star systems used for other consumer products, to provide consumers an easily identifiable ranking of credit cards, based on the card's features. Credit card companies will be required to display the rating on all application and contract materials, enabling consumers to quickly understand all of the major provisions of a credit card without having to rely exclusively on fine print in lengthy documents.
• Establish a Credit Card Bill of Rights to Protect Consumers: Obama and Biden will create a Credit Card Bill of Rights to protect consumers. The Obama-Biden plan will:
  • Ban Unilateral Changes
  • Apply Interest Rate Increases Only to Future Debt
  • Prohibit Interest on Fees
  • Prohibit "Universal Defaults"
  • Require Prompt and Fair Crediting of Cardholder Payments

Reform Bankruptcy Laws

Obama and Biden will reform our bankruptcy laws to protect working people, ban executive bonuses for bankrupt companies, and require disclosure of all pension investments.

• Cap Outlandish Interest Rates on Payday Loans and Improve Disclosure: Obama and Biden will extend a 36 percent interest cap to all Americans. They will require lenders to provide clear and simplified information about loan fees, payments and penalties, which is why they'll require lenders to provide this information during the application process.
• Encourage Responsible Lending Institutions to Make Small Consumer Loans: Obama and Biden will encourage banks, credit unions and Community Development Financial Institutions to provide affordable short-term and small-dollar loans and to drive unscrupulous lenders out of business.
• Reform Bankruptcy Laws to Protect Families Facing a Medical Crisis: Obama and Biden will create an exemption in bankruptcy law for individuals who can prove they filed for bankruptcy because of medical expenses. This exemption will create a process that forgives the debt and lets the individuals get back on their feet.

Work/Family Balance

Obama and Biden will double funding for after-school programs, expand the Family Medical Leave Act, provide low-income families with a refundable tax credit to help with their child-care expenses, and encourage flexible work schedules.

• Expand the Family and Medical Leave Act: The FMLA covers only certain employees of employers with 50 or more employees. Obama and Biden will expand it to cover businesses with 25 or more employees. They will expand the FMLA to cover more purposes as well, including allowing workers to take leave for elder care needs; allowing parents up to 24 hours of leave each year to participate in their children's academic activities; and expanding FMLA to cover leave for employees to address domestic violence.
• Encourage States to Adopt Paid Leave: As president, Obama will initiate a strategy to encourage all 50 states to adopt paid-leave systems. Obama and Biden will provide a $1.5 billion fund to assist states with start-up costs and to help states offset the costs for employees and employers.
• Expand High-Quality Afterschool Opportunities: Obama and Biden will double funding for the main federal support for afterschool programs, the 21st Century Learning Centers program, to serve a million more children. Obama and Biden will include measures to maximize performance and effectiveness across grantees nationwide.
• Expand the Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit: The Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit provides too little relief to families that struggle to afford child care expenses. Obama and Biden will reform the Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit by making it refundable and allowing low-income families to receive up to a 50 percent credit for their child care expenses.
• Protect Against Caregiver Discrimination: Workers with family obligations often are discriminated against in the workplace. Obama and Biden will enforce the recently-enacted Equal Employment Opportunity Commission guidelines on caregiver discrimination.
• Expand Flexible Work Arrangements: Obama and Biden will create a program to inform businesses about the benefits of flexible work schedules; help businesses create flexible work opportunities; and increase federal incentives for telecommuting. Obama and Biden will also make the federal government a model employer in terms of adopting flexible work schedules and permitting employees to request flexible arrangements.

<< 오바마의 미국인에 대한 메시지  >>

미국인이여, 이제 일하자. Amercans Do Work!

오바마 이후의 향후 8년 미국에 대한 전망  ----------------------------------------------

 금융에 대한 과도한 의존과 거품에서 비롯된 일하지 않는 미국에서
  => 중산층과 노동계층의 복원과 실질소비여력 증진을 통해 일하는 미국,
      건강한 미국의 복원을 추구하는 8년이 될 것.

오바마 이후의 미국 _ 중산층 복원 및 소비여력 내실화를 위한, 일하는 미국, 
                            The Working America의 추구

1) 비정파적이고 거국적인 적극적인 감세 정책으로 중산층 복원을 지향

2) 일자리 창출과 전국적 Infrastructure 사업을 통해, 노동계층에 대한 적극적인 지지와
   복원의사를 보여주고 있음.

   따라서, 근로를 통한 미국경제의 복원과 미국민의 소비여력 내실화에 긍정적으로 작용할 것으로 볼 수 있음.

  국제무역에서는 허리띠를 두른 미국의 Tight한 입장이 예상된다.

3) 주가영향으로는, 내실을 통해 흐트러진 것을 복원하고,
    실질적 경제 체력 회복을 통해 점진적인 복구의 과정에 들어설 것으로 보인다.
 

http://www.barackobama.com/issues/economy/index.php

미국인이 재정적자만 키우고, 일을 안해서 문제가 발생했는데,

미국인의 중산층과 노동계층에 대한 지지를 통해, 일하는 미국의 복원을 시도하고 있기 때문입니다.

미국인이여, 이제 일하자고 말하고 있습니다.

Justice와 경제적 기반의 복원을 통한 희망을 얘기하고 있으므로, 다우존스는 2009년에 점진적으로 이에 화답할 것입니다.

I"M ASKING YOU TO BELIEVE....  I'm asking you to believe in yours.

-- Barack Obama,  His main Political Philosophy to People --




중국, 한국경제에 대한 영향력

최근의 글 <미국의 현재 상황에 대한 중간 점검> 에서 살펴본 바대로,

오바마는 미국의 제조업을 부흥시킬 가능성이 유력한데, 이미 그런 언급을 하고 있다.

보호무역과 같은 생각도 실지로 보호무역을 강화하겠다기 보다는, 내수에서 제조업을 강화하겠다는 의미를 지니는데,

이걸 3류국가처럼 직접적으로 개입할 수는 없으니까, 일단 돌려서 천명하는 것이다.

이 경우, 중국의 수출쪽은 타격이 예상된다. 

중국은 개방이후 초기국면에서 놀라운 대외물류 capa의 성장을 보였지만, 우리가 일상에서 느끼듯이, 그 자본주의적 질은

아직 멀었다고 볼 수 있다.

오바마 시기를 활용하여, 중국은 와신상담하고, 내적인 개혁과 재정비, quality개선에 노력해야 할 것으로 본디ㅏ.

또한, 미국의 경우에는 제조업 섹터를 중심으로 일시적인 부흥이 예상된다.

오바마의 경우, 천사라기 보다는, 당근과 채찍을 동시에 든, 엄한 선생과 같은 인상을 주고 있다.

즉, 미국인들을 일 열심히 시킬거 같은데, 흑인과 중서민들로부터, 더욱이 백인들까지, 전폭적인 지지를 받고 있다는 것은

매우 큰 힘이 된다. 즉, 위기극복과 체질개선을 위해, 고통을 분담하고 다 협력하여 나갈 수 있는 환경이 되있다는 것이다.

따라서, 미국의 제조업은 부흥이 예상되는데, 이 점에서 미국 투자 기회를 모색해야 할 필요가 있다.

물론, 오바마가 신성장동력쪽으로 눈돌릴 수도 있지만, 양자를 적절히 함께 해나가는 식이지, 신성장동력쪽에서만 기회를

찾지는 않을 것으로 보인다.

한국의 경우는 어떠할 것인가?

한국은 나름대로의 경쟁력이 있고, 중국과는 달리, 미국과의 오랜 수출입관계를 통해, 또한 미국의 단순일반제조업섹터가

따라올 수 없는, 첨단분야에서의 수출흐름을 이미 확보하고 있는 상태로, 미국의 이런 흐름과 관계없이 그 지위의 유지가

예상된다.

또한, 미국인의 소비여력이 확충되면, 소비재 위주인 한국의 수출산업은 일단 긍정적이지, 타격을 받을 것으로 보이지 않는다.

-----------------------

미국의 현재 상황에 대한 중간 점검, 

5.

   오바마의 경우, 최초의 당선연설에서는 아주 간략하게 나타냈지만, 미국의 경제가 당면한 핵심 문제를 아주 확실하게

   인지하고 있다.

   미국인들을 일 시키는게 중요하다는 것이다. (People to Work)

   놀고 먹으면서 Loan으로 살았는데, 그 거품이 터졌으니까, 이제 일하라는 것이다.

   즉, 소비여력이 거품이었는데, 일 시키고 임금줘서 소비여력 챙겨주고 내실화를 다져주니까,

   당장 모기지도 터졌고, 카드부실도 있겠지만, 차츰 물이 차오를 것이라는 점이다.

  -- 이 점에서, 미국 내에서 전통적인 산업섹터, 제조업이 일시적인, 차별적인 부흥기를 맞이할 가능성도 열려있다.

   특히, 부시의 경우에는 임기 말기로 인해, 금리, 통화정책밖에 손을 쓸 수 없었지만,

   오바마의 경우에는, 이러한 양호한, 금리통화정책 환경하에서, 강력한 재정정책을 수행할 수 있다.

   또한 과거와는 달리 글로벌신뢰와 협력의 확대로, 세계가 위기에 공동으로 대응하고, 공동의 해결책을 모색하게 된 것도

   큰 의미를 지닌다고 볼 수 있다. 

------------- (이상, 2008년 11월 전망)